Share tips thread (Vol 2)
Discussion
DonkeyApple said:
Legend83 said:
What's kicked PepsiCo? Just general market decline it something else? Put a load in last week and it's dropped 5% since...
It's been heading down since May for two core reasons, it was being held by institutions on the grounds of yield but the risk free yield of cash is now 200 points higher than the dividend yield so there's been a steady outflow of that capital, the second reason is that they sell expensive, non essential goods to fat and stupid people and it tends to be that the fat and stupid humans are in with the group most hit by the cost of living. Folks who have Doritos for breakfast, washed down with 8 litres of fizzy liquid sugar and then have Cheetos for lunch, washed down with more instant diabetes, all purchases in credit have less spending power and can easily switch to cheaper foods such as Darootos, Chootows and Poopsi. The sell off this week is probably just down to earnings on the 10th which are expected to be OK but the focus will be on the outlook for next year as interest rates look set for being higher for longer. siovey said:
KEFI looks interesting. Have held these previously but got bored and sold. Had a few hundred in my SIPP which I'm not fussed at losing so grabbed 100k at .75p. We'll see what happens! 
Crazy SP action today. I feel like this has been so long coming that a lot of long-term-holders seen a chance to get out with their heads above water today and took it. Genuinely looks as though financial closure could be days / weeks away, this time. Should be 3p-4p once that's sorted, up from 0.7p where it closed today.Legend83 said:
DonkeyApple said:
Legend83 said:
What's kicked PepsiCo? Just general market decline it something else? Put a load in last week and it's dropped 5% since...
It's been heading down since May for two core reasons, it was being held by institutions on the grounds of yield but the risk free yield of cash is now 200 points higher than the dividend yield so there's been a steady outflow of that capital, the second reason is that they sell expensive, non essential goods to fat and stupid people and it tends to be that the fat and stupid humans are in with the group most hit by the cost of living. Folks who have Doritos for breakfast, washed down with 8 litres of fizzy liquid sugar and then have Cheetos for lunch, washed down with more instant diabetes, all purchases in credit have less spending power and can easily switch to cheaper foods such as Darootos, Chootows and Poopsi. The sell off this week is probably just down to earnings on the 10th which are expected to be OK but the focus will be on the outlook for next year as interest rates look set for being higher for longer. I would like them to reduce the debt a bit
Fatties will always buy soda and crisp sales jsut go up and up.
Pepsico is my biggest holding by far and I will add more if it falls before the earnings report.
Legend83 said:
Makes sense. I'd challenge the elasticity of the items they sell, fat humans like what they like (brand power) and I wonder if often in tough times they double down on "comfort" products...let's see what the 10th brings.
Yup. I think the concern is that some customers have no choice but to switch to cheaper alternatives. The other concern is that welfare spend makes up a reasonable part of the revenue and few governments are looking like they're increasing that spend in the medium term.
I think the market will be looking mostly at the forward guidance on the 10th. There may well be a bounce as it's been quite a sell off in the run up.
Seems yesterday at some point an article went out about the drug that reduces appetite causing problems making you go number 2.
I'm not surprised something was thrown out there as you'd have to imagine the likes of coke pepsi mcdonalds etc are concerned in a way.
I'm still buying more pepsi though it's only rhe extreme fatties that will go for the pill most will still consume loads.
160 is a good price imo.
I'm not surprised something was thrown out there as you'd have to imagine the likes of coke pepsi mcdonalds etc are concerned in a way.
I'm still buying more pepsi though it's only rhe extreme fatties that will go for the pill most will still consume loads.
160 is a good price imo.
ferrisbueller said:
Legend83 said:
ferrisbueller said:
Why Pepsi and not Coca-Cola?
To be fair CC is down 12% over the last 3 months too so I don't think Pepsi is an outlier.Coke is just drinks.
have a look at the two charts long long term and see that coke has been flat (no pun intended) for 5 years. it seems to rise and fall with the market.
Pepsico does the same but has its own growth to add into it.
I also have worked in supermarkets all my life.
Nobody trades down from coke or pepsi to cookacula or poopsico, Crisps as well have huge brand loyalty. There is literally an entire double sided aisle of crisps in every big supermarket and an aisle of fizzy drinks none of which have ever gotton smaller.
Edited by asfault on Friday 6th October 22:37
Own brands have been seeding arse end media for 18 months ever since the cost of living crisis kicked off as the most impacted by the cost of living are the core customer base for these products.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/18457799/taste-test...
The transition doesn't tend to occur in-store due to the embarrassment of being the person pushing a trolly or Poopsi or cock coola among rich, successful Coke of Pepsi buyers but when the consumer drops down an entire consumer rung. In the U.K. that would be represented by a move to Aldi/Lidl etc In the US this would mainly be represented by Sam's Choice which is the Walmart own brand which interesting was launched back in 1991 the last time there was a significant cost of living crisis among the poorer section of society.
Consumers are hugely brand loyal which is why brands are just so valuable and trade in such high multiples for what are utterly non essential and hugely overpriced products but the risk isn't that consumers will stop wanting these products but that the Government money they receive doesn't grow quickly enough, the pay by the hour work starts losing hours, the banks reduce what they will lend etc. This results in huge percentage rages of the global client base just having to cut back on purchase frequencies and or sizes.
So rates being higher for longer is a direct impact on these sorts of businesses from two directions, firstly the higher and longer rates look to last the greater the concern that the core client base won't be able to purchase the same volume of goods and that the company will find it harder to maintain or grow margins and then in the other side more equity holders in for the yield exit to bonds.
But these are still extremely high quality stocks that are defensive in nature so portfolio stalwarts so arguably all that's being seen currently is a natural transition within the share price and shareholders to reflect the new economic cycle. Down the line companies like this will get driven up by some flight to quality when a couple of zombie S&P or Nasdaq constituents suddenly go pop out of the blue because absolutely no one ever foresaw what everyone has been aware of for years, flybynight, debt loaded, badly run businesses going pop under the weight of their debt pile as they fail to reissue their bonds to a market that knows they're crap and is just over the moon to have reached expiry on the bay of b
ks they took a punt on a few years ago hoping to exit before it imploded.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/18457799/taste-test...
The transition doesn't tend to occur in-store due to the embarrassment of being the person pushing a trolly or Poopsi or cock coola among rich, successful Coke of Pepsi buyers but when the consumer drops down an entire consumer rung. In the U.K. that would be represented by a move to Aldi/Lidl etc In the US this would mainly be represented by Sam's Choice which is the Walmart own brand which interesting was launched back in 1991 the last time there was a significant cost of living crisis among the poorer section of society.
Consumers are hugely brand loyal which is why brands are just so valuable and trade in such high multiples for what are utterly non essential and hugely overpriced products but the risk isn't that consumers will stop wanting these products but that the Government money they receive doesn't grow quickly enough, the pay by the hour work starts losing hours, the banks reduce what they will lend etc. This results in huge percentage rages of the global client base just having to cut back on purchase frequencies and or sizes.
So rates being higher for longer is a direct impact on these sorts of businesses from two directions, firstly the higher and longer rates look to last the greater the concern that the core client base won't be able to purchase the same volume of goods and that the company will find it harder to maintain or grow margins and then in the other side more equity holders in for the yield exit to bonds.
But these are still extremely high quality stocks that are defensive in nature so portfolio stalwarts so arguably all that's being seen currently is a natural transition within the share price and shareholders to reflect the new economic cycle. Down the line companies like this will get driven up by some flight to quality when a couple of zombie S&P or Nasdaq constituents suddenly go pop out of the blue because absolutely no one ever foresaw what everyone has been aware of for years, flybynight, debt loaded, badly run businesses going pop under the weight of their debt pile as they fail to reissue their bonds to a market that knows they're crap and is just over the moon to have reached expiry on the bay of b
ks they took a punt on a few years ago hoping to exit before it imploded. ferrisbueller said:
Legend83 said:
ferrisbueller said:
Why Pepsi and not Coca-Cola?
To be fair CC is down 12% over the last 3 months too so I don't think Pepsi is an outlier.As above, I prefer Pepsi's wider variety of products / brands.
Legend83 said:
Ah sorry misunderstood the question, I thought you were asking why Pepsi was going down but Coke wasn't.
As above, I prefer Pepsi's wider variety of products / brands.
It's an interesting aspect as Pepsi have the wider variety by one metric but Coke's brands look wider by economic demographic, which could be argued to protect them if a downturn such as the cost of living continues to only impact the lower demographics. As above, I prefer Pepsi's wider variety of products / brands.
Any views on easyjet? EZJ
I’m tempted to move some funds from an index tracker into easyJet due to the current price. I’ve had success with them in the past.
However between fuel prices, and cost of living crisis not going anywhere for the foreseeable future, I’m not sure if they will be able to rise too much too quickly.
Someone talk me into, or out of this :lol:
I’m tempted to move some funds from an index tracker into easyJet due to the current price. I’ve had success with them in the past.
However between fuel prices, and cost of living crisis not going anywhere for the foreseeable future, I’m not sure if they will be able to rise too much too quickly.
Someone talk me into, or out of this :lol:
Greshamst said:
Any views on easyjet? EZJ
I’m tempted to move some funds from an index tracker into easyJet due to the current price. I’ve had success with them in the past.
However between fuel prices, and cost of living crisis not going anywhere for the foreseeable future, I’m not sure if they will be able to rise too much too quickly.
Someone talk me into, or out of this :lol:
Shareprice trending down, net debt 25% of its market cap. Surely better opportunities to be had elsewhere in the market?I’m tempted to move some funds from an index tracker into easyJet due to the current price. I’ve had success with them in the past.
However between fuel prices, and cost of living crisis not going anywhere for the foreseeable future, I’m not sure if they will be able to rise too much too quickly.
Someone talk me into, or out of this :lol:
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