Share tips thread (Vol 2)

[Burwood]

Condi said:

Burwood said:

In short FB has issues.

It does, but mainly because 15 years ago it didnt exist, 12 years ago it was tiny startup and now it is one of the most valuable companies on the planet. Expecting any business to do what they've done without issues is probably asking too much.


Their ability to deliver advertising to your exact demographic, however, and then to analyse the effectiveness of that advertising is second to non. It makes TV or print advertising look like carpet bombing vs a Facebook 'laser guided missile'.


Usage of their platform is definitely going down, but thats probably just the platform maturing and users coming to terms with what it does/ can do, than any rapid implosion like MySpace and MSN Messenger saw in the mid/late 2000's.

Edited by Condi on Sunday 18th November 23:03

Yes a laser guided missile that is illegal. I’m not sure you know about their problems. General consensus is zuckerberg is hanging on but should go. Recently caught mining, selling data illegally and when journalists questioned it. FB reacted by hiring some rather unsavoury PR firms to smear them. And when called on it they lied. It’s rinse and repeat with them. Their marketing works in some sectors but it uses techniques now deemed illegal in many countries. Respectable advertisers are leaving.

[Busterhighmen]

ATM said:

AIM share Trakm8

They've had some turbulence in the last couple of years. Recent news from the company themselves about gearing up for large contract wins are starting to look like a reality now.

They supply the black boxes for Direct Line Insurance. They recently announced a win with an even larger insurance company which didn't even move the share price.

They now appear to be supplying EE with their box appearing on the EE website yesterday.

Loads more to say but won't bore you. I'm expecting the share price to double or triple in the next 12 months so I'm balls deep.

Big hit recently.

[elanfan]

http://www.alignresearch.co.uk/cpt-company/powerho...

Suggesting a confidence buy and a potential 6 fold increase in share price.

Up 17.95% today!


A 23 page version here: http://www.alignresearch.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/...

An extract:

Discussion
While our target price is some 5 times higher than the current share price we believe that our model is conservative for a number of reasons quite aside from the high discount rate used.
Firstly, management believe that they can achieve a substantial roll out programme once the initial reference plant is up and running. As discussed, our model assumes a total of 101 plants commissioned by 2024 and then none thereafter. We believe this is conservative as management sees potential in the UK for up to 700 sites. To illustrate the upside potential, if we assume an additional 20 plants are commissioned in 2025 then the NPV rises by c.14% to £54 million and the NPV per share to 2.79p.
Secondly, as mentioned, our model also ignores the potential for other sources of income. For example, fees for the supply of hot water/steam could run to c.£25 MW/h and those for services could be several hundred thousand pounds per plant.
More significantly, we do not consider hydrogen sales at this stage. Instead of using the syngas solely for power generation, a portion can be used for the separation of hydrogen which can be sold as road fuel. There is a trade-off here between power supply and hydrogen but one which becomes more lucrative as hydrogen is produced.





Got to wonder why the CEO has bought 16.6M shares at 28% over the prevailing share price and promised to hold them for 18 months minimum. Also why Paul C Warwick a guy with 40 years experience in oil and gas bought 7% of the company.

Hopefully here we go!

Edited by elanfan on Thursday 22 November 00:07

Edited by elanfan on Thursday 22 November 00:12

[Super Slo Mo]

So I am an idiot, if anyone didn’t know that already

This morning I went to buy EVR, and ended up buying EVRH instead.... now sitting here wondering whether I should cut my losses and get out or hold and see if it improves.
Know very little about the company, although it apparently has almost no debt.
I’ll make a decision by the end of the day I reckon .

[Shnozz]

A fortunate idiot by the looks of it as EVR is down 6% on the day as against EVRH being down only 2.69%!

[Super Slo Mo]

Yeah. Probably not a great day for short term buys although I was looking for the long term anyway.

[red_slr]

Condi said:

Burwood said:

In short FB has issues.

It does, but mainly because 15 years ago it didnt exist, 12 years ago it was tiny startup and now it is one of the most valuable companies on the planet. Expecting any business to do what they've done without issues is probably asking too much.


Their ability to deliver advertising to your exact demographic, however, and then to analyse the effectiveness of that advertising is second to non. It makes TV or print advertising look like carpet bombing vs a Facebook 'laser guided missile'.


Usage of their platform is definitely going down, but thats probably just the platform maturing and users coming to terms with what it does/ can do, than any rapid implosion like MySpace and MSN Messenger saw in the mid/late 2000's.

Edited by Condi on Sunday 18th November 23:03

Well its lost close to 50% of its value in 4 months. That's pretty big in my books. Thankfully I bought around 170 so not too bad but I can only imagine the pain people are taking who bought at 220.

[anonymous-user]

ATM said:

AIM share Trakm8

They've had some turbulence in the last couple of years. Recent news from the company themselves about gearing up for large contract wins are starting to look like a reality now.

They supply the black boxes for Direct Line Insurance. They recently announced a win with an even larger insurance company which didn't even move the share price.

They now appear to be supplying EE with their box appearing on the EE website yesterday.

Loads more to say but won't bore you. I'm expecting the share price to double or triple in the next 12 months so I'm balls deep.

Down 75% over the last week. Reason? Did you get out or still in?

[FredClogs]

Roman Rhodes said:

Down 75% over the last week. Reason? Did you get out or still in?

They had a big contract lined up in Iran which was lost due to the sanctions, that's one reason... I'm not in but started watching due to the mention on this thread.

[anonymous-user]

FredClogs said:

Roman Rhodes said:

Down 75% over the last week. Reason? Did you get out or still in?

They had a big contract lined up in Iran which was lost due to the sanctions, that's one reason... I'm not in but started watching due to the mention on this thread.

OK, thanks. Ditto my reason for watching the price - but hadn't seen the news.

Hope the guy didn't get too badly burnt - needs a fourfold increase to get back to where it was when tipped. Still, this is AIM so who knows?

[ATM]

Roman Rhodes said:

FredClogs said:

Roman Rhodes said:

Down 75% over the last week. Reason? Did you get out or still in?

They had a big contract lined up in Iran which was lost due to the sanctions, that's one reason... I'm not in but started watching due to the mention on this thread.

OK, thanks. Ditto my reason for watching the price - but hadn't seen the news.

Hope the guy didn't get too badly burnt - needs a fourfold increase to get back to where it was when tipped. Still, this is AIM so who knows?

Their half year results were bad. Showed a loss and therefore increase in debt. This triggered the sharp fall and then a few days of drifting lower. I still believe in the company but no idea what's going in with the SP. If they continue making losses then yes they'll need to raise money or go bump. They could just cut some staff and then they would be back in the black.

Don't forget they have expanded their manufacturing operation recently as we would presume they believe their volumes will increase. If this was all down to Iran then the outlook is bad. I dont believe it is. As already stated by me earlier they recently announced a contract win with a large insurance co which could easily double their volumes. This could even get them back on Trak - see what I did there - before the full year end.

And they just won EE as a customer who are now actively selling their products on their / the main EE website. It must have taken 18 to 24 months of jumping through hoops to make that happen. If EE start ramping up then again this could double their volume.

So that's just 2 opportunities we know about which could both make the business a lot more profitable. If any other big wins are in the pipeline these could be also taking a while to land.

I still believe the SP could get up into the 2 or 3 pound area so at the current price its an absolute bargain.

At the moment they are making money but spending more. This is either because they're idiots or because they believe they will succeed but the market at the moment seems to disagree.

[Brother D]

Has anyone here subscribed to the motlyfool newsletter?

If so was it useful?

Their blurb shows fairly impressive returns over the years

Thanks

[Chamon_Lee]

Brother D said:

Has anyone here subscribed to the motlyfool newsletter?

If so was it useful?

Their blurb shows fairly impressive returns over the years

Thanks

I have been signed up to them before (still am). I done some investigation on them last year buy doing some "dummy" investments based on what they suggested. On the whole they are good but they do have some poor ones too: some might say thats just the way it is in general.

From all the other "tip" newsletters and websites I found them to be the most reliable.

[elanfan]

Powerhouse Energy

Advanced commercial discussions announced with Toyota who appear interested in taking the technology worldwide. Share price has jumped around 17% when I looked.

[*Badger*]

elanfan said:

Powerhouse Energy

Advanced commercial discussions announced with Toyota who appear interested in taking the technology worldwide. Share price has jumped around 17% when I looked.

Fingers crossed. We had paper losses of 40% not 3 months ago, so not counting anything yet.

[elanfan]

Not a bad day finished up 25.25%

[Condi]

red_slr said:

Condi said:

Burwood said:

In short FB has issues.

It does, but mainly because 15 years ago it didnt exist, 12 years ago it was tiny startup and now it is one of the most valuable companies on the planet. Expecting any business to do what they've done without issues is probably asking too much.


Their ability to deliver advertising to your exact demographic, however, and then to analyse the effectiveness of that advertising is second to non. It makes TV or print advertising look like carpet bombing vs a Facebook 'laser guided missile'.


Usage of their platform is definitely going down, but thats probably just the platform maturing and users coming to terms with what it does/ can do, than any rapid implosion like MySpace and MSN Messenger saw in the mid/late 2000's.

Edited by Condi on Sunday 18th November 23:03

Well its lost close to 50% of its value in 4 months. That's pretty big in my books. Thankfully I bought around 170 so not too bad but I can only imagine the pain people are taking who bought at 220.

Im not suggesting it wasnt overbought - and all tech stocks are down, so isolating Facebook's decline does it an injustice - but I dont buy the short-sellers arguments that's all. To expect any business to achieve the growth they have, and be as disruptive as they have, in such a short space of time with any 'issues' is madness. Like anything they will push the limits of what is legal and acceptable - and remember a lot of the privacy laws have been bought in since the company was started - so some push back from lawmakers and society is to be expected. Society is still very much grappling with how much data is shared, and what we are happy to do with it. Facebook is probably better positioned than almost any other advertiser to deliver targeted ads, and advertisers will continue to pay for that.

IMO.

[Skyedriver]

*Badger* said:

Fingers crossed. We had paper losses of 40% not 3 months ago, so not counting anything yet.

Weee, I'm in profit at last.
Wish I'd bought more than £500 worth now
Get out while I'm ahead????

[FredClogs]

coyft said:

I think Facebook can adapt their business model to cope with any regulatory changes. The bigger issue is, can they survive reputational damage.

With Nick Clegg on board they can achieve anything, I mean it's not as if he's a man associated with failure, is it?

Well done to those still holding PHE, should of had a punt but it looks as if the opportunity there could grow and grow (with bumps along the way dyor etc...)

[Burwood]

FredClogs said:

coyft said:

I think Facebook can adapt their business model to cope with any regulatory changes. The bigger issue is, can they survive reputational damage.

With Nick Clegg on board they can achieve anything, I mean it's not as if he's a man associated with failure, is it?

Well done to those still holding PHE, should of had a punt but it looks as if the opportunity there could grow and grow (with bumps along the way dyor etc...)

It’s OT but what a jerkoff Clegg is. The irony that he works for the biggest privacy thief and tax mitigator on the planet. £7m package. Mind you who can blame him