What's your take on Tesla?

What's your take on Tesla?

Author
Discussion

Chris1712

295 posts

100 months

Friday 3rd August 2018
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DonkeyApple said:
I’ll be honest, I wouldn’t go anywhere near it. The time to invest in these sorts of stocks is at the outset and with pure venture capital unless you have a large portfolio and want to allocate a modest percentage and I mean modest.

I have clients who trade it for the short term and a few got caught out this morning with shorts but not badly.

For me, I currently see them as a stock that’s going to have its medium term future defined, maybe even its existence in its current structure over the next 6-12 months. If the 3 fails in any way then they will need money and it will be a desperation deal if they can find one. It makes the stock more like a ridiculously expensive option at the moment.

I guess the next week will see if continued upward pressure squeezes out the short positions and triggers a rally to previous highs. That might be the punter’s trade this month?
Out of interest, what would define a 'Model 3 failure' to you? And how / why do you think that's a possibility?

silverous

1,008 posts

135 months

Friday 3rd August 2018
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ReaperCushions said:
Bought yesterday, sell today... buy again when Musk says something stupid on Twitter... rinse / repeat.
I've been doing this for about a year. I nearly got caught out once when it looked like the stock was in freefall and I bailed but should have just held on. I seem to buy around $300 and sell at as much as I can, have been making £1k here or there doing it, £1,500 if I sold as of last night. Does seem to go up and down a fair bit so can "reliably" do this. I thought I'd bought at wrong time as they dropped a fair bit after I bought but now have gone up quite a bit as well.

DonkeyApple

55,663 posts

170 months

Friday 3rd August 2018
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Chris1712 said:
Out of interest, what would define a 'Model 3 failure' to you? And how / why do you think that's a possibility?
Anything that stops sales hitting targets could send the firm down. Problems with battery supply, problems at the factory, build issues, decline in projected customer demand etc. The 3 just has to sell in the numbers projected and without serious snags.

Chris1712

295 posts

100 months

Friday 3rd August 2018
quotequote all
DonkeyApple said:
Anything that stops sales hitting targets could send the firm down. Problems with battery supply, problems at the factory, build issues, decline in projected customer demand etc. The 3 just has to sell in the numbers projected and without serious snags.
Ah ok. They all seem pretty unlikely to me and should be well planned for, demand will outstrip supply for a good while yet.
IMO 6-12 months time the 3 will be in the rear view mirror so to speak and focus will be on delivering the Semi/Y/Roadster aswell as showing what next gen battery & AP3 can deliver.

DonkeyApple

55,663 posts

170 months

Friday 3rd August 2018
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If it goes that smoothly the. You can expect the share price to be well north of here

NRS

22,249 posts

202 months

Friday 3rd August 2018
quotequote all
Chris1712 said:
DonkeyApple said:
Anything that stops sales hitting targets could send the firm down. Problems with battery supply, problems at the factory, build issues, decline in projected customer demand etc. The 3 just has to sell in the numbers projected and without serious snags.
Ah ok. They all seem pretty unlikely to me and should be well planned for, demand will outstrip supply for a good while yet.
IMO 6-12 months time the 3 will be in the rear view mirror so to speak and focus will be on delivering the Semi/Y/Roadster aswell as showing what next gen battery & AP3 can deliver.
Considering all the previous missed targets and promises why do you say it is unlikely?

ReaperCushions

6,073 posts

185 months

Tuesday 7th August 2018
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NRS said:
Chris1712 said:
DonkeyApple said:
Anything that stops sales hitting targets could send the firm down. Problems with battery supply, problems at the factory, build issues, decline in projected customer demand etc. The 3 just has to sell in the numbers projected and without serious snags.
Ah ok. They all seem pretty unlikely to me and should be well planned for, demand will outstrip supply for a good while yet.
IMO 6-12 months time the 3 will be in the rear view mirror so to speak and focus will be on delivering the Semi/Y/Roadster aswell as showing what next gen battery & AP3 can deliver.
Considering all the previous missed targets and promises why do you say it is unlikely?
Agreed. The current strategy is to build cars in a tent in the parking lot... if that doesn't tell you how high risk this strategy is, nothing will.

This one is for gamblers only in my opinion.

WindyCommon

3,385 posts

240 months

Tuesday 7th August 2018
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Musk has tweeted today about taking the company private at $420. Not sure if serious....

Saudis (through their Public Investment Sov Wealth fund) have apparently built a 3-5% stake.

Ding ding imho....

DonkeyApple

55,663 posts

170 months

Tuesday 7th August 2018
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Squeezing out the shorts. Supposed to be over $10bn.

silverous

1,008 posts

135 months

Tuesday 7th August 2018
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Damn sold my stake and made circa £1200 in a week or so Just before it shot up from his tweet. Tried to buyback in but HL wouldn’t let me, something about volatility and no quote available.

Surprised he can get away with that as CEO of public company, why would he tweet a price and drive the share price up to cost him more to take it private ?!

WindyCommon

3,385 posts

240 months

Tuesday 7th August 2018
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Extraordinary saga unfolding here. I have never seen anything like it!

Could be:

a) genuine and somehow compliant with securities legislation
b) genuine but with serious transgressions of securities legislation, will end in tears
c) a simple attack on shorts that will go horribly wrong....
d) completely fake

Trading halted, presumably for serious lawyering.

Fascinating. Story of the year!

DonkeyApple

55,663 posts

170 months

Tuesday 7th August 2018
quotequote all
silverous said:
Damn sold my stake and made circa £1200 in a week or so Just before it shot up from his tweet. Tried to buyback in but HL wouldn’t let me, something about volatility and no quote available.

Surprised he can get away with that as CEO of public company, why would he tweet a price and drive the share price up to cost him more to take it private ?!
Saudis have an instant profit and are happy. The shorts that have been hurting Musk are being squeezed out. And what’s the worst that could be done to him for such an accidental indiscretion? wink

WindyCommon

3,385 posts

240 months

Tuesday 7th August 2018
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The idea that all shareholders will stay on board taking stakes in the private company is surely a fantasy. Today they hold a liquid quoted investment, tomorrow they wouldn’t. Looked at from the perspective of mutual funds - listed or unlisted - I suspect that would be very very difficult.

WindyCommon

3,385 posts

240 months

Tuesday 7th August 2018
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zubzob said:
It has some precedent with spacex fidelity fund? Or so he says.

Edited by zubzob on Tuesday 7th August 20:21
Not at all similar..!

50% chance this is genuine and somehow compliant. 50% chance he’ll be cited for potential securities fraud tomorrow?

WindyCommon

3,385 posts

240 months

Tuesday 7th August 2018
quotequote all
The critical difference is that SpaceX was never a publicly traded company. The only point I’m making is that many existing investors will not be able to hold if Tesla changes to a private company.

WindyCommon

3,385 posts

240 months

Tuesday 7th August 2018
quotequote all
You’ve missed the point entirely.

Of course there are funds that can and do hold shares in privately quoted companies. The holders of these funds bought into them knowing that they will hold illiquid investments that are only tradable every 6 months.

But if you run a fund that is priced daily and had been sold to investors as investing in liquid publicly traded stocks (for example a daily-priced mutual fund) it is likely that you will have investment restrictions in your prospectus that restrict your ability to hold illiquid vehicles. Read up on the tight spot many suggest Neil Woodford is in with respect to unquoted holdings in his funds for example.

Taking Tesla private will also remove it from indices, so passive/tracker funds will no longer hold it. Vanguard is one of the current top 10 holders that would presumably be unable to continue to hold for this reason.

silverous

1,008 posts

135 months

Tuesday 7th August 2018
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Can’t believe how poor my timing was in selling just before this kicked off. Price now sat at $379 - if trading resumes and this is genuine surely it will tick up to the $420 and above that he’s referred to ?

WindyCommon

3,385 posts

240 months

Tuesday 7th August 2018
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The phrase “Funding secured.” below may attract intense scrutiny. If he has a backer who has signed up for $420/share (perhaps plus the existing debt) then no problem.

This is a fascinating twist in a fascinating story. If he pulls it off, it will be perhaps the largest ever instance of “sticking it to the man”...



Jon39

12,877 posts

144 months

Wednesday 8th August 2018
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The rules will differ between USA and UK, but I was surprised that a director of a publicly quoted company, makes a market moving statement openly on social media, before formally announcing to the exchange.

If a FTSE 100 CEO did that, there would be trouble.

Is it allowed in the US?




Chris1712

295 posts

100 months

Wednesday 8th August 2018
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ReaperCushions said:
Agreed. The current strategy is to build cars in a tent in the parking lot... if that doesn't tell you how high risk this strategy is, nothing will.

This one is for gamblers only in my opinion.
See this is what I find so interesting. I see the Tent ordeal as a HUGE plus? It's incredible! Why bother spending months or years building a permanent structure when you can make something that works in 2 weeks? It's amazing and testament to the engineers working their and the companies attitude on the whole. I love it.