What's your take on Tesla?
Discussion
DonkeyApple said:
I’ll be honest, I wouldn’t go anywhere near it. The time to invest in these sorts of stocks is at the outset and with pure venture capital unless you have a large portfolio and want to allocate a modest percentage and I mean modest.
I have clients who trade it for the short term and a few got caught out this morning with shorts but not badly.
For me, I currently see them as a stock that’s going to have its medium term future defined, maybe even its existence in its current structure over the next 6-12 months. If the 3 fails in any way then they will need money and it will be a desperation deal if they can find one. It makes the stock more like a ridiculously expensive option at the moment.
I guess the next week will see if continued upward pressure squeezes out the short positions and triggers a rally to previous highs. That might be the punter’s trade this month?
Out of interest, what would define a 'Model 3 failure' to you? And how / why do you think that's a possibility? I have clients who trade it for the short term and a few got caught out this morning with shorts but not badly.
For me, I currently see them as a stock that’s going to have its medium term future defined, maybe even its existence in its current structure over the next 6-12 months. If the 3 fails in any way then they will need money and it will be a desperation deal if they can find one. It makes the stock more like a ridiculously expensive option at the moment.
I guess the next week will see if continued upward pressure squeezes out the short positions and triggers a rally to previous highs. That might be the punter’s trade this month?
ReaperCushions said:
Bought yesterday, sell today... buy again when Musk says something stupid on Twitter... rinse / repeat.
I've been doing this for about a year. I nearly got caught out once when it looked like the stock was in freefall and I bailed but should have just held on. I seem to buy around $300 and sell at as much as I can, have been making £1k here or there doing it, £1,500 if I sold as of last night. Does seem to go up and down a fair bit so can "reliably" do this. I thought I'd bought at wrong time as they dropped a fair bit after I bought but now have gone up quite a bit as well.Chris1712 said:
Out of interest, what would define a 'Model 3 failure' to you? And how / why do you think that's a possibility?
Anything that stops sales hitting targets could send the firm down. Problems with battery supply, problems at the factory, build issues, decline in projected customer demand etc. The 3 just has to sell in the numbers projected and without serious snags. DonkeyApple said:
Anything that stops sales hitting targets could send the firm down. Problems with battery supply, problems at the factory, build issues, decline in projected customer demand etc. The 3 just has to sell in the numbers projected and without serious snags.
Ah ok. They all seem pretty unlikely to me and should be well planned for, demand will outstrip supply for a good while yet.IMO 6-12 months time the 3 will be in the rear view mirror so to speak and focus will be on delivering the Semi/Y/Roadster aswell as showing what next gen battery & AP3 can deliver.
Chris1712 said:
DonkeyApple said:
Anything that stops sales hitting targets could send the firm down. Problems with battery supply, problems at the factory, build issues, decline in projected customer demand etc. The 3 just has to sell in the numbers projected and without serious snags.
Ah ok. They all seem pretty unlikely to me and should be well planned for, demand will outstrip supply for a good while yet.IMO 6-12 months time the 3 will be in the rear view mirror so to speak and focus will be on delivering the Semi/Y/Roadster aswell as showing what next gen battery & AP3 can deliver.
NRS said:
Chris1712 said:
DonkeyApple said:
Anything that stops sales hitting targets could send the firm down. Problems with battery supply, problems at the factory, build issues, decline in projected customer demand etc. The 3 just has to sell in the numbers projected and without serious snags.
Ah ok. They all seem pretty unlikely to me and should be well planned for, demand will outstrip supply for a good while yet.IMO 6-12 months time the 3 will be in the rear view mirror so to speak and focus will be on delivering the Semi/Y/Roadster aswell as showing what next gen battery & AP3 can deliver.
This one is for gamblers only in my opinion.
Damn sold my stake and made circa £1200 in a week or so Just before it shot up from his tweet. Tried to buyback in but HL wouldn’t let me, something about volatility and no quote available.
Surprised he can get away with that as CEO of public company, why would he tweet a price and drive the share price up to cost him more to take it private ?!
Surprised he can get away with that as CEO of public company, why would he tweet a price and drive the share price up to cost him more to take it private ?!
Extraordinary saga unfolding here. I have never seen anything like it!
Could be:
a) genuine and somehow compliant with securities legislation
b) genuine but with serious transgressions of securities legislation, will end in tears
c) a simple attack on shorts that will go horribly wrong....
d) completely fake
Trading halted, presumably for serious lawyering.
Fascinating. Story of the year!
Could be:
a) genuine and somehow compliant with securities legislation
b) genuine but with serious transgressions of securities legislation, will end in tears
c) a simple attack on shorts that will go horribly wrong....
d) completely fake
Trading halted, presumably for serious lawyering.
Fascinating. Story of the year!
silverous said:
Damn sold my stake and made circa £1200 in a week or so Just before it shot up from his tweet. Tried to buyback in but HL wouldn’t let me, something about volatility and no quote available.
Surprised he can get away with that as CEO of public company, why would he tweet a price and drive the share price up to cost him more to take it private ?!
Saudis have an instant profit and are happy. The shorts that have been hurting Musk are being squeezed out. And what’s the worst that could be done to him for such an accidental indiscretion? Surprised he can get away with that as CEO of public company, why would he tweet a price and drive the share price up to cost him more to take it private ?!
The idea that all shareholders will stay on board taking stakes in the private company is surely a fantasy. Today they hold a liquid quoted investment, tomorrow they wouldn’t. Looked at from the perspective of mutual funds - listed or unlisted - I suspect that would be very very difficult.
You’ve missed the point entirely.
Of course there are funds that can and do hold shares in privately quoted companies. The holders of these funds bought into them knowing that they will hold illiquid investments that are only tradable every 6 months.
But if you run a fund that is priced daily and had been sold to investors as investing in liquid publicly traded stocks (for example a daily-priced mutual fund) it is likely that you will have investment restrictions in your prospectus that restrict your ability to hold illiquid vehicles. Read up on the tight spot many suggest Neil Woodford is in with respect to unquoted holdings in his funds for example.
Taking Tesla private will also remove it from indices, so passive/tracker funds will no longer hold it. Vanguard is one of the current top 10 holders that would presumably be unable to continue to hold for this reason.
Of course there are funds that can and do hold shares in privately quoted companies. The holders of these funds bought into them knowing that they will hold illiquid investments that are only tradable every 6 months.
But if you run a fund that is priced daily and had been sold to investors as investing in liquid publicly traded stocks (for example a daily-priced mutual fund) it is likely that you will have investment restrictions in your prospectus that restrict your ability to hold illiquid vehicles. Read up on the tight spot many suggest Neil Woodford is in with respect to unquoted holdings in his funds for example.
Taking Tesla private will also remove it from indices, so passive/tracker funds will no longer hold it. Vanguard is one of the current top 10 holders that would presumably be unable to continue to hold for this reason.
The phrase “Funding secured.” below may attract intense scrutiny. If he has a backer who has signed up for $420/share (perhaps plus the existing debt) then no problem.
This is a fascinating twist in a fascinating story. If he pulls it off, it will be perhaps the largest ever instance of “sticking it to the man”...
This is a fascinating twist in a fascinating story. If he pulls it off, it will be perhaps the largest ever instance of “sticking it to the man”...
ReaperCushions said:
Agreed. The current strategy is to build cars in a tent in the parking lot... if that doesn't tell you how high risk this strategy is, nothing will.
This one is for gamblers only in my opinion.
See this is what I find so interesting. I see the Tent ordeal as a HUGE plus? It's incredible! Why bother spending months or years building a permanent structure when you can make something that works in 2 weeks? It's amazing and testament to the engineers working their and the companies attitude on the whole. I love it.This one is for gamblers only in my opinion.
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