What's your take on Tesla?
Discussion
On Tuesday evening WindyCommon said:
The phrase “Funding secured.” below may attract intense scrutiny. If he has a backer who has signed up for $420/share (perhaps plus the existing debt) then no problem.
Here’s the wicket on which Musk is batting:
A few will fancy their chances of bowling well on that...
Edited by WindyCommon on Thursday 9th August 16:26
rockin said:
A vaguely interesting UK comparison is the career path of Richard Branson,
"He has never been a friend of the City. The relationship soured in the late 1980s when he listed his Virgin music business on the stock market, and the share price bombed. An outraged Branson took the company private, buying out institutional shareholders who he claimed did not understand the business."
"He has never been a friend of the City. The relationship soured in the late 1980s when he listed his Virgin music business on the stock market, and the share price bombed. An outraged Branson took the company private, buying out institutional shareholders who he claimed did not understand the business."
If I remember correctly, as you say 'the share price bombed', but most unusually and very generously, the shares were repurchased from investors at the (higher) original flotation price.
They did not require the return of certificates, so I have an original Virgin Group share certificate as a momento (not for sale).
Edited by Jon39 on Friday 10th August 07:54
kurt535 said:
What I think of Tesla is why do Toyota hold off not coming out with their own offerings other than the Prius. it does make me think though if toyota aren't hammering at the electric car thing, theres a decent reason.
The market isn’t large enough yet. Tesla have taken ten years to sell. 200k cars and done it all at a loss and using investor capital. The incumbent firms don’t run their businesses that way. They lobby for govt support and incentives, push the market a little with basic offerings but only when there is genuine demand will they flick a switch and start churning out millions of units a year with each unit being profitable. They are all waiting for that tipping point ( energy cost) to mean that EV is genuinely cheaper than ICE and then they will start churning them out. Until that point they have successfully lobbied the main global governments to back hybrid tech until 2040 so are churning out millions of profitable hybrid units for the time being.
Toyota could build a million EV Yaris cars tomorrow but no one would buy them as they would be more expensive and difficult to use than the ICE Yaris. At some point in the future when batteries are cheap enough to make an EV considerably cheaper than the ICE then consumers will stop buying ICE Yaris and buy millions of EVs.
Tesla PR claims they have stolen a march but the reality is that the incumbents work on a different business model and are just sitting right waiting for all the ducks to align before flicking a switch.
DonkeyApple said:
The market isn’t large enough yet. Tesla have taken ten years to sell. 200k cars and done it all at a loss and using investor capital. The incumbent firms don’t run their businesses that way. They lobby for govt support and incentives, push the market a little with basic offerings but only when there is genuine demand will they flick a switch and start churning out millions of units a year with each unit being profitable.
They are all waiting for that tipping point ( energy cost) to mean that EV is genuinely cheaper than ICE and then they will start churning them out. Until that point they have successfully lobbied the main global governments to back hybrid tech until 2040 so are churning out millions of profitable hybrid units for the time being.
Toyota could build a million EV Yaris cars tomorrow but no one would buy them as they would be more expensive and difficult to use than the ICE Yaris. At some point in the future when batteries are cheap enough to make an EV considerably cheaper than the ICE then consumers will stop buying ICE Yaris and buy millions of EVs.
Tesla PR claims they have stolen a march but the reality is that the incumbents work on a different business model and are just sitting right waiting for all the ducks to align before flicking a switch.
fab reply - it makes total sense when written like you have. tyThey are all waiting for that tipping point ( energy cost) to mean that EV is genuinely cheaper than ICE and then they will start churning them out. Until that point they have successfully lobbied the main global governments to back hybrid tech until 2040 so are churning out millions of profitable hybrid units for the time being.
Toyota could build a million EV Yaris cars tomorrow but no one would buy them as they would be more expensive and difficult to use than the ICE Yaris. At some point in the future when batteries are cheap enough to make an EV considerably cheaper than the ICE then consumers will stop buying ICE Yaris and buy millions of EVs.
Tesla PR claims they have stolen a march but the reality is that the incumbents work on a different business model and are just sitting right waiting for all the ducks to align before flicking a switch.
zubzob said:
Going to be interesting to see the Panasonic / Toyota / Tesla triangle play out.
Battery production efficiency is going to be a key issue. I read that Toyota recently signed a deal with Panasonic to build batteries too. So wondering how that will impact Tesla and how long the ramp up will be. Details seem a bit sketchy at present. Toyota currently state the margin on EV sales is too low right now to push, but Musk 'claims' he has achieved decent margins.
What will happen if Toyota use their muscle to sway Panasonic? Doesn't seem like they can make enough for both?
Musk claims many things, many times. The new cell for the 3 is supposed to be a move forward in packaging and possibly also chemistry requiring fewer high cost elements. But it’s pretty obvious that he has achieved his margins on his $30k car by deciding not to sell any at $30k but to only sell $50k versions to start with. Battery production efficiency is going to be a key issue. I read that Toyota recently signed a deal with Panasonic to build batteries too. So wondering how that will impact Tesla and how long the ramp up will be. Details seem a bit sketchy at present. Toyota currently state the margin on EV sales is too low right now to push, but Musk 'claims' he has achieved decent margins.
What will happen if Toyota use their muscle to sway Panasonic? Doesn't seem like they can make enough for both?
Also, all Musk’s blarney about the Gigafactory being the biggest battery factory in the world. What he means is the size of the building. That’s the largest but inside it is mostly empty and production is low. The factories in Asia are bigger in terms of output.
The other key fact that he keeps forgetting is that Tesla own the building but Panasonic own what’s inside it. Panasonic underwrote the deal. So, Musk owns an enormous factory in the middle of the desert that is mostly empty but he doesn’t own what’s in it anyway. Obviously his plan is to fill it and to use solar to charge the units for free etc etc but if Tesla goes into chapter 11 then Panasonic walk away with the contents of the factory.
pssst... Donkey has a massive short on TSLA!
just kidding
Really interesting hearing differing points of view, all of them give something to ponder over.
On the question of batteries, I wondered how easily they're recycled vs what is wasted?
Seems pretty straightforward according to this: https://www.batterysolutions.com/recycling-informa...
just kidding
Really interesting hearing differing points of view, all of them give something to ponder over.
On the question of batteries, I wondered how easily they're recycled vs what is wasted?
Seems pretty straightforward according to this: https://www.batterysolutions.com/recycling-informa...
Short interview with Elon on a tech channel regarding Tesla.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MevKTPN4ozw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MevKTPN4ozw
And the secured funding has fallen through, wow, never expected that! *sarcasm*
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/volksw...
Hope the SEC tear him a new one.
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/volksw...
Hope the SEC tear him a new one.
I suspect he’ll survive the SEC. there seems to be evidence that two credible parties have admitted conversations took place and regulators do tend to prefer for things to quietly go away rather than pick a messy fight that could risk showing up that most of them have no clue about the industry they are supposed to regulate
However, he himself, as you say has lost a very large chunk of his ‘invincibility’ and that’s always an invitation for all those people that feel they have been screwed over on his way through to start sharpening their blades.
However, he himself, as you say has lost a very large chunk of his ‘invincibility’ and that’s always an invitation for all those people that feel they have been screwed over on his way through to start sharpening their blades.
Pedo-gate opened up again yesterday when he got into a twitter argument because the guy he called a pedo hasn’t apparently sued him which he’s intimating is an admission of guilt.
The SEC problem he has is one if accuracy of reporting, the fact conversations were happening makes no difference if the suggestion is the conversations were far more advanced than they were. He made a company announcement when it appears none of the board knew much if anything. It’s a bit like announcing to the neighbours you’re moving house because you’ve been to a few estate agents but you’ve neglected mentioning it your significant other.
The SEC problem he has is one if accuracy of reporting, the fact conversations were happening makes no difference if the suggestion is the conversations were far more advanced than they were. He made a company announcement when it appears none of the board knew much if anything. It’s a bit like announcing to the neighbours you’re moving house because you’ve been to a few estate agents but you’ve neglected mentioning it your significant other.
kurt535 said:
What I think of Tesla is why do Toyota hold off not coming out with their own offerings other than the Prius. it does make me think though if toyota aren't hammering at the electric car thing, theres a decent reason.
Toyota are very cautious and the Japanese, IMO, are quite slow to move do dither about a bit. I work for a Japanese company and although its not that large, it does seem to take them eons to actually get things moving along at a good progress. By contrast, Tesla is very fly by night and would seem to be making changes to the way they build cars almost weekly. Toyota currently has its fingers in EV and well as Hydrogen pies and of course has been pretty successful with hybrids (they are, IMO still the top dog at this). Though their foray in EV is actually quite recent and when they set the division up to look exclusively at EV development, it apparently had just 4 people!
They're playing a good hedging game, as are Honda. But then they do have the luxury of being two of the largest manufacturers in the world with seriously deep pockets. They can afford to hang around a bit and see which way the wind blows.
Toyota dominate the ‘peoples’ market And are the best at what they do. They are the hybrid leaders.
If they aren’t building millions of EVs it is purely because they know there are no purchasers for that product at this moment in time.
In no way shape or form are Toyota behind any kind of curve. When the economics are right for Toyota products to be EV then Toyota will deliver leading and dominant EV products into their market segment.
The fact that this is not happening today merely tells us that the common man’s EV is not commercially viable yet.
This is somewhat supported by Tesla whose peoples car for the masses at. $35,000 is only being sold for $60,000 because it costs so much to build.
When Toyota turn on the taps to build EVs then we will all understand that the days of ICE are behind us.
If they aren’t building millions of EVs it is purely because they know there are no purchasers for that product at this moment in time.
In no way shape or form are Toyota behind any kind of curve. When the economics are right for Toyota products to be EV then Toyota will deliver leading and dominant EV products into their market segment.
The fact that this is not happening today merely tells us that the common man’s EV is not commercially viable yet.
This is somewhat supported by Tesla whose peoples car for the masses at. $35,000 is only being sold for $60,000 because it costs so much to build.
When Toyota turn on the taps to build EVs then we will all understand that the days of ICE are behind us.
DonkeyApple said:
Toyota dominate the ‘peoples’ market And are the best at what they do.
Toyota UK market share has been static at a poor 4% for several years.The product lineup is also extremely dreary which doesn't bode well for the longer term. Similar in the US where the Scion brand died on its arse.
Olivera said:
DonkeyApple said:
Toyota dominate the ‘peoples’ market And are the best at what they do.
Toyota UK market share has been static at a poor 4% for several years.The product lineup is also extremely dreary which doesn't bode well for the longer term. Similar in the US where the Scion brand died on its arse.
ker. Ford only survive by putting Aston Martin grills on their pleb wagons. We are a fantastically wealthy people and so can rent grey Audi’s and BMWs by diverting our pension contributions. Should it ever transpire that this is not the case then all these fantastically wealthy, life winners will suddenly start buying Toyotas, Vauxhall’s and French cars again.
Or putting it seriously, you’d expect a slightly inverse relationship between brands such as Toyota and a nations GDP growth.
Olivera said:
Toyota UK market share has been static at a poor 4% for several years.
The product lineup is also extremely dreary which doesn't bode well for the longer term. Similar in the US where the Scion brand died on its arse.
Scion ran from 2003 to 2015. Tesla was also founded in 2003.The product lineup is also extremely dreary which doesn't bode well for the longer term. Similar in the US where the Scion brand died on its arse.
In its 12 years of existence, Scion sold 1.095M cars.
In February of this year, 15 years in to its existence, Tesla managed to pass 300k cars produced.
Certainly the market Scion were targeting was different, but let’s just bear in mind, it “died on its arse” having sold nearly 4 times as many cars as Tesla in only 80% of the time.
Toyota’s brand line up has had a dreary decade, but new models are more interesting and in wannabe-exec terms the IS and RC are great looking cars. With the war on diesel showing no signs of stopping, Toyota and Lexus have quite a hybrid line up.
DonkeyApple said:
Toyota dominate the ‘peoples’ market And are the best at what they do. They are the hybrid leaders.
If they aren’t building millions of EVs it is purely because they know there are no purchasers for that product at this moment in time.
In no way shape or form are Toyota behind any kind of curve. When the economics are right for Toyota products to be EV then Toyota will deliver leading and dominant EV products into their market segment.
The fact that this is not happening today merely tells us that the common man’s EV is not commercially viable yet.
This is somewhat supported by Tesla whose peoples car for the masses at. $35,000 is only being sold for $60,000 because it costs so much to build.
When Toyota turn on the taps to build EVs then we will all understand that the days of ICE are behind us.
I'm not so sure...they only setup the EV development team seriously at the end of 2016. I don't think they're as far along as people might like to think. They'd pinned their tail on hydrogen.If they aren’t building millions of EVs it is purely because they know there are no purchasers for that product at this moment in time.
In no way shape or form are Toyota behind any kind of curve. When the economics are right for Toyota products to be EV then Toyota will deliver leading and dominant EV products into their market segment.
The fact that this is not happening today merely tells us that the common man’s EV is not commercially viable yet.
This is somewhat supported by Tesla whose peoples car for the masses at. $35,000 is only being sold for $60,000 because it costs so much to build.
When Toyota turn on the taps to build EVs then we will all understand that the days of ICE are behind us.
Of course...a lot of the tech is complimentary, so it's not like they're starting over.
Re Tesla, a German outfit similar to Monroe Associates in the US, did a nut and bolt tear down of the model three and reckoned on it costing $28,000 or there about a to build, once they got the numbers up to 10,000 a week. So I don't know, it's clearly possible that they could build the 35k model 3 and still have it wash its face. But their manufacturing process is just too inefficient. Spent loads on robots, even more on hiring people back into the line, more again to build a new line in a tent outside and the cars still need a lot of QA work at the end. If they'd have just been a bit more sensible and conventional in their approach, we might have that 35k Tesla about now.
Of course the elephant in the room is the Nissan Leaf and the Hyundai Ioniq. Both cars that are mass market EVs with range most people would find more than suitable....and yet..... How many do you see? I have only seen the new leaf because of where I work. yet I have never ever seen an Ioniq EV.
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