What's your take on Tesla?
Discussion
mikebradford said:
Could it be his actions are deliberate?
Driving down share price such that he or his associates can gain more shares at effectively a discounted rate.
Entirely possible, a tweet on Monday saying that Model 3 production numbers are on target (or something similar) will send it back up again. Driving down share price such that he or his associates can gain more shares at effectively a discounted rate.
mikebradford said:
Could it be his actions are deliberate?
Driving down share price such that he or his associates can gain more shares at effectively a discounted rate.
I don't know, but his appearance on Joe Rogan wasn't because "it would be fun" imo.Driving down share price such that he or his associates can gain more shares at effectively a discounted rate.
JR podcasts are excellent, if you enjoyed watching the Elon interview you should check out the JR podcasts with 'Peter Schiff', a stock broker providing commentary on finance and the world economy.
zubzob said:
Tesla is a highly volatile stock so inevitably there would be 30% swings whether Musk tweeted or not.
But on the otherhand twitter is a big part of Tesla's marketing plan, and Musk's tweets raises profile, gets exposure, which ultimately translates to sales.
Part of Tesla's PR thing is looking natural, which relies on a blend of personal and technical tweets, so 10% of his tweets are inevitably going to hit a bum note.
The weed thing though is positive I'm sure. Think how many extra eyes are now on September sales figures, now Musk is on front page of every financial paper pretty much every day of the week.
Ultimately the company will live or die by the results. So whether or not he has a whiskey on a talk show or not, or even a milder 100% legal drug, I'm sure has zero negative impact on anything.
They may live or die by the share price and whether it supports their debt just as much as any other financials. I posted somewhere, it may have been a different forum, that in 4 years to that particular day of the year the company had gained only about 1%. 1% growth over 4 years. The Nasdaq had doubled over the same period. Thats not a particularly pretty scenario. But on the otherhand twitter is a big part of Tesla's marketing plan, and Musk's tweets raises profile, gets exposure, which ultimately translates to sales.
Part of Tesla's PR thing is looking natural, which relies on a blend of personal and technical tweets, so 10% of his tweets are inevitably going to hit a bum note.
The weed thing though is positive I'm sure. Think how many extra eyes are now on September sales figures, now Musk is on front page of every financial paper pretty much every day of the week.
Ultimately the company will live or die by the results. So whether or not he has a whiskey on a talk show or not, or even a milder 100% legal drug, I'm sure has zero negative impact on anything.
Tesla are also entering "crossing the chasm" territory which is a well known growth point and one that's particularly hard to cross, and in a market that's also crossing the chasm as EVs move from niche to more mainstream.. One of the things you;d look for is reassuring messages on support, quality, it being a safe purchase for your money. The other side of the chasm want some security that the early adopters and innovators before them were prepared to risk. I'm not sure a dope smoking, pedo calling CEO gives the right impression to those buyers.
Heres Johnny said:
You're aware of the expression "dead cat bounce".
Or in this case, Musks forgot to take his mobile with him to work and the lack of tweeting is having a positive impression in the price.
Plenty of positive news out this morning backing it all up with real analysis of the business, rather than stupid speculation about a whiskey and a joint. Or in this case, Musks forgot to take his mobile with him to work and the lack of tweeting is having a positive impression in the price.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/10/buy-tesla-shares-e...
https://www.nasdaq.com/article/why-now-is-not-the-...
Like I said last week. It was a buying opportunity based on some silly news rather than any fundamental change in their business operations and Model 3 output.
Not saying its a long term hold... but you have to admit that this was underpriced on Friday last week?
Mr2Mike said:
If you'd have quoted anyone apart from Seeking Alpha I'd have taken it more seriously. Run by notorious Tesla shorters. ReaperCushions said:
Plenty of positive news out this morning backing it all up with real analysis of the business, rather than stupid speculation about a whiskey and a joint.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/10/buy-tesla-shares-e...
https://www.nasdaq.com/article/why-now-is-not-the-...
Like I said last week. It was a buying opportunity based on some silly news rather than any fundamental change in their business operations and Model 3 output.
Not saying its a long term hold... but you have to admit that this was underpriced on Friday last week?
I’d rather say ‘temporarily over sold’ rather than ‘underpriced’ https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/10/buy-tesla-shares-e...
https://www.nasdaq.com/article/why-now-is-not-the-...
Like I said last week. It was a buying opportunity based on some silly news rather than any fundamental change in their business operations and Model 3 output.
Not saying its a long term hold... but you have to admit that this was underpriced on Friday last week?
After the hooha of the exec resignations you did then get clarity that one of the two people was a Doris who’d left the company a long time ago but only decided to make it formal when the free money was coming to an end and the other was a Charlie who’d arrived a month ago and taken 28 days to pluck up the courage to confess he was the wrong chap for the job. Combine that with the silly interview etc. Still daft to hold over a weekend after a week like that!
ReaperCushions said:
Plenty of positive news out this morning backing it all up with real analysis of the business, rather than stupid speculation about a whiskey and a joint.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/10/buy-tesla-shares-e...
https://www.nasdaq.com/article/why-now-is-not-the-...
Like I said last week. It was a buying opportunity based on some silly news rather than any fundamental change in their business operations and Model 3 output.
Not saying its a long term hold... but you have to admit that this was underpriced on Friday last week?
It’s laughable really, the shares have dropped 30% in a couple of weeks and they use a headline bullet ‘stock jumps 3%”. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/10/buy-tesla-shares-e...
https://www.nasdaq.com/article/why-now-is-not-the-...
Like I said last week. It was a buying opportunity based on some silly news rather than any fundamental change in their business operations and Model 3 output.
Not saying its a long term hold... but you have to admit that this was underpriced on Friday last week?
I run one of the biggest inventory tracking sites in the world, US new MS and MX inventory is at an all time high, Dutch stock is sky high, something is going on and I think they’re struggling to convert to high volumes of sales. The M3 order book is ok, but not rampant despite the 500k reservations and I strongly suspect they’re switching sales from MS to M3.
The factory is run by Panasonic, it’s just in a Tesla building.
I’m sure they’re doing ok, but it’s only ok.
DonkeyApple said:
ReaperCushions said:
Plenty of positive news out this morning backing it all up with real analysis of the business, rather than stupid speculation about a whiskey and a joint.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/10/buy-tesla-shares-e...
https://www.nasdaq.com/article/why-now-is-not-the-...
Like I said last week. It was a buying opportunity based on some silly news rather than any fundamental change in their business operations and Model 3 output.
Not saying its a long term hold... but you have to admit that this was underpriced on Friday last week?
I’d rather say ‘temporarily over sold’ rather than ‘underpriced’ https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/10/buy-tesla-shares-e...
https://www.nasdaq.com/article/why-now-is-not-the-...
Like I said last week. It was a buying opportunity based on some silly news rather than any fundamental change in their business operations and Model 3 output.
Not saying its a long term hold... but you have to admit that this was underpriced on Friday last week?
After the hooha of the exec resignations you did then get clarity that one of the two people was a Doris who’d left the company a long time ago but only decided to make it formal when the free money was coming to an end and the other was a Charlie who’d arrived a month ago and taken 28 days to pluck up the courage to confess he was the wrong chap for the job. Combine that with the silly interview etc. Still daft to hold over a weekend after a week like that!
It was a bit daft, but it was a gamble, that so far has paid off... so I'll take it. It makes up for the hundreds of gambles that haven't paid off that I never tell anyone about, like a true gambler
Edit: Looks like I'm up around 9% all in since Friday morning. I still think it has a way back up to go yet before I'll be getting out.
Edited by ReaperCushions on Monday 10th September 21:04
Heres Johnny said:
ReaperCushions said:
Plenty of positive news out this morning backing it all up with real analysis of the business, rather than stupid speculation about a whiskey and a joint.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/10/buy-tesla-shares-e...
https://www.nasdaq.com/article/why-now-is-not-the-...
Like I said last week. It was a buying opportunity based on some silly news rather than any fundamental change in their business operations and Model 3 output.
Not saying its a long term hold... but you have to admit that this was underpriced on Friday last week?
It’s laughable really, the shares have dropped 30% in a couple of weeks and they use a headline bullet ‘stock jumps 3%”. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/10/buy-tesla-shares-e...
https://www.nasdaq.com/article/why-now-is-not-the-...
Like I said last week. It was a buying opportunity based on some silly news rather than any fundamental change in their business operations and Model 3 output.
Not saying its a long term hold... but you have to admit that this was underpriced on Friday last week?
I run one of the biggest inventory tracking sites in the world, US new MS and MX inventory is at an all time high, Dutch stock is sky high, something is going on and I think they’re struggling to convert to high volumes of sales. The M3 order book is ok, but not rampant despite the 500k reservations and I strongly suspect they’re switching sales from MS to M3.
The factory is run by Panasonic, it’s just in a Tesla building.
I’m sure they’re doing ok, but it’s only ok.
Tesla have definitely got first mover advantage but in the next three to four years all the major/incumbent OEM's have got major new product pipeline (some of it probably with significantly improved tech over Tesla)...when I look at the price of Tesla's product in the UK, the build quality and reliability I just think they're really going to struggle to grow at anywhere near what the share price implies. I reckon there's a 10 to 20% chance (at best) that the current valuation will prove to have been a valid one in five years time.
zubzob said:
I think Musk would agree with you. He regularly states it would be an achievement if Tesla even survives, let alone compete with the big players. And cites the high share price as an unwelcome distraction to his main goal of pushing EV adoption forward. He only pitched 420 as he needed a premium on current price.
The only voices loudly shouting that Tesla will or won't beat Toyata etc are short term speculators.
"I've gone on the record several times that the stock price is higher than we have the right to deserve and that's for sure true based on where we are today," Musk told Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval at the National Governors Association summer meeting on Saturday.
Musk added the company's stock price reflects a "lot of optimism" and that he has tried to taper expectations, but has found that "quite tough" when euphoria is running this high.
If that's the case why did he say he had the financing in place to take the company private ? That would only get done at current price or at a premium to current price. The only voices loudly shouting that Tesla will or won't beat Toyata etc are short term speculators.
"I've gone on the record several times that the stock price is higher than we have the right to deserve and that's for sure true based on where we are today," Musk told Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval at the National Governors Association summer meeting on Saturday.
Musk added the company's stock price reflects a "lot of optimism" and that he has tried to taper expectations, but has found that "quite tough" when euphoria is running this high.
Who would ever invest in a CEO who genuinely thought it would be a surprise if the company survived?
I can see investment in a start up risky venture where the rewards are enormous (i'm talking 100x the investment) and its recognised the odds are long, but not in a 40-50B market cap company.
Musk wants and expects Tesla to survive make no mistake, and his own remuneration package dictates he wants to be made incredibly wealthy if and when it does.
I can see investment in a start up risky venture where the rewards are enormous (i'm talking 100x the investment) and its recognised the odds are long, but not in a 40-50B market cap company.
Musk wants and expects Tesla to survive make no mistake, and his own remuneration package dictates he wants to be made incredibly wealthy if and when it does.
JaredVannett said:
What do you think - would you buy Tesla shares?
I think I'm a pure idiot that did not buy in the beginning. Judging by how the stock were issued to the public at a price of $17.00 back in 2010 per share and now around $290. Less than 10 years, its a massive success considering the pure complexity and competition in the sector itself.Edited by JaredVannett on Sunday 22 July 23:08
ooid said:
I think I'm a pure idiot that did not buy in the beginning. Judging by how the stock were issued to the public at a price of $17.00 back in 2010 per share and now around $290. Less than 10 years, its a massive success considering the pure complexity and competition in the sector itself.
There’ll be a company somewhere that’s floating at a price which will be 20x higher in 5 to 10 years. There will be another 20 which will crash and burn.Teslas growth was largely the first 4 years, the share price has been unremarkable compared to the Nasdaq over the last 4 years., its had its moments but it’s no start up or penny share anymore
Edited by Heres Johnny on Friday 14th September 08:12
Can I just understand this properly:
Musk has gone on record with various sources saying Tesla is overpriced. Yet mere weeks ago, was (let’s face it) BS-ing about having an offer on the table and deal done at 420, 45% higher than the current “overpriced” value.
Tesla is currently (at close yesterday) 20% underpriced vs. where it needs to be per the conditions of their convertible bonds, to avoid having to fund raise.
I appreciate CEOs tend to play chess not chequers, but I struggle to understand the game he’s playing.
Musk has gone on record with various sources saying Tesla is overpriced. Yet mere weeks ago, was (let’s face it) BS-ing about having an offer on the table and deal done at 420, 45% higher than the current “overpriced” value.
Tesla is currently (at close yesterday) 20% underpriced vs. where it needs to be per the conditions of their convertible bonds, to avoid having to fund raise.
I appreciate CEOs tend to play chess not chequers, but I struggle to understand the game he’s playing.
emicen said:
Can I just understand this properly:
Musk has gone on record with various sources saying Tesla is overpriced. Yet mere weeks ago, was (let’s face it) BS-ing about having an offer on the table and deal done at 420, 45% higher than the current “overpriced” value.
Tesla is currently (at close yesterday) 20% underpriced vs. where it needs to be per the conditions of their convertible bonds, to avoid having to fund raise.
I appreciate CEOs tend to play chess not chequers, but I struggle to understand the game he’s playing.
That’s a great point, what’s the break even?Musk has gone on record with various sources saying Tesla is overpriced. Yet mere weeks ago, was (let’s face it) BS-ing about having an offer on the table and deal done at 420, 45% higher than the current “overpriced” value.
Tesla is currently (at close yesterday) 20% underpriced vs. where it needs to be per the conditions of their convertible bonds, to avoid having to fund raise.
I appreciate CEOs tend to play chess not chequers, but I struggle to understand the game he’s playing.
"Paedo" cave diver is now going to sue Musk for libel.
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/09/17/diver-who-he...
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/09/17/diver-who-he...
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