What's your take on Tesla?
Discussion
Talking about the future of electric cars as being justification for a thriving Tesla is not necessarily accurate. If EVs failed then Tesla would fail, but the opposite does that necessarily follow.
Someone mentioned people putting a dollar on Tesla hoping to make a 1000 in the future -with Tesla at a 50-60B market cap, that’s relying on it going up to crazy market cap. Even a 50% increase in share value is adding 25B to the companies worth - that’s a serious number
Someone mentioned people putting a dollar on Tesla hoping to make a 1000 in the future -with Tesla at a 50-60B market cap, that’s relying on it going up to crazy market cap. Even a 50% increase in share value is adding 25B to the companies worth - that’s a serious number
DonkeyApple said:
V8 Fettler said:
Increased range (1000 miles?) + quick charge at the supermarket/energy station + leasing = the end of most petrol/diesel cars
Very true. Also, the realisation that electricity is ubiquitous and the average car travels less than ten miles a day also means the ICE will disappear within a manufacturing cycle the moment the high density battery pack becomes cheap enough. Battery tech improvements are into increments now and arguably will remain so until completely new tech is discovered. Component efficiency of cars is also into incremental gains.
But there are two absolutely massive and dominating key elements that are loaded with absolutely enormous levels of fat to be carved out and that is firstly the consumers’ lack of comprehension as to how they actually use their own car currently and secondly the price of batteries. Those are the two areas where the EV market knows the fat is to be carved and very cheaply. The only expensive component being time. Hence why the incumbents are backing hybrid to infill this time period. By the time hybrid tech is revealed by governments to be hugely evil and essential to kill the EV will be commercially viable and it’s off we go.
But at the moment everyone thinks they need 1000 miles of range and such a vehicle has a battery pack that costs more than a house. Tick tock on both fronts.
Driverless EVs that reliably arrive at the door when summoned by a customer will eliminate vehicle ownership for many, just leaving the enthusiasts to run hydrocarbon-powered vehicles on whatever hydrocarbon is available.
We’ll not be having cars with 1000 mile range anytime soon. Musk himself doesn’t see the need to go above 100kwh in std cars other than for performance and if they can pack in more power they’ll just reduce weight. If you think 1000 range is needed you’re probably not driving an EV now.
Heres Johnny said:
We’ll not be having cars with 1000 mile range anytime soon. Musk himself doesn’t see the need to go above 100kwh in std cars other than for performance and if they can pack in more power they’ll just reduce weight. If you think 1000 range is needed you’re probably not driving an EV now.
I occasionally suffer 550 mile days, routinely 150 - 200 mile days. An EV with a 1000 mile range works for me, 300 or less is no good.Typical existing EV range means home charging for many.
V8 Fettler said:
I occasionally suffer 550 mile days, routinely 150 - 200 mile days. An EV with a 1000 mile range works for me, 300 or less is no good.
Typical existing EV range means home charging for many.
There's a market for one driver, its not exactly main stream. They're not going to add approx half a ton of batteries to give just you a 1000 mile rangeTypical existing EV range means home charging for many.
Secondly - a 1000 mile range on current performance would equate to something like a 300kwh battery. Home charging at a typical 7kw would take about 2 days - so its not really practical in that sense either.
Heres Johnny said:
There's a market for one driver, its not exactly main stream. They're not going to add approx half a ton of batteries to give just you a 1000 mile range
Secondly - a 1000 mile range on current performance would equate to something like a 300kwh battery. Home charging at a typical 7kw would take about 2 days - so its not really practical in that sense either.
It does make me wonder, decades from now if and when full EV becomes mainstream, the demands that will be placed on the energy grid.Secondly - a 1000 mile range on current performance would equate to something like a 300kwh battery. Home charging at a typical 7kw would take about 2 days - so its not really practical in that sense either.
eg. Bob, Sue, Mary all arrive home from their 9-5 job, plug in the car charger etc.
Clearly we'll need to build more nuclear plants, no? ... I guess China can build a few for us
JaredVannett said:
Heres Johnny said:
There's a market for one driver, its not exactly main stream. They're not going to add approx half a ton of batteries to give just you a 1000 mile range
Secondly - a 1000 mile range on current performance would equate to something like a 300kwh battery. Home charging at a typical 7kw would take about 2 days - so its not really practical in that sense either.
It does make me wonder, decades from now if and when full EV becomes mainstream, the demands that will be placed on the energy grid.Secondly - a 1000 mile range on current performance would equate to something like a 300kwh battery. Home charging at a typical 7kw would take about 2 days - so its not really practical in that sense either.
eg. Bob, Sue, Mary all arrive home from their 9-5 job, plug in the car charger etc.
Clearly we'll need to build more nuclear plants, no? ... I guess China can build a few for us
Heres Johnny said:
It’s no big deal - average person drives something like 32 miles a day, that’s 10kwh, that’s 4x 100w light bulbs being left on - and with people switch to led light bulbs and other energy saving kit like TVs they’re probably taking less on average.
I thought the country's electriciy needs were greater than ever before? I can't believe that a car = 4 lightbulbs.I hear that reserve production is very slim now as the much-vaunted renewables are variable and unstorable.
Simpo Two said:
Heres Johnny said:
It’s no big deal - average person drives something like 32 miles a day, that’s 10kwh, that’s 4x 100w light bulbs being left on - and with people switch to led light bulbs and other energy saving kit like TVs they’re probably taking less on average.
I thought the country's electriciy needs were greater than ever before? I can't believe that a car = 4 lightbulbs.I hear that reserve production is very slim now as the much-vaunted renewables are variable and unstorable.
Even a Tesla can do 3 miles per kwh so at worst 11 kwh, but most cars are better than that
A 100w light bulb is.. erm.. 100w, which over 24 hours is 2.4kwh - 4 of them is 10kwh
The other factor is that refining fuel is hardly electricity free - energy no longer required.
But the other way to think of all this is gas central heating went from virtually nothing to mass installation over a few years in the 1970s.. from very little domestic gas use to the majority of houses heated by gas in a relatively few years - the UK didn't fall apart. EV adoption will be over a long time period and things will adjust to cope.
Simpo Two said:
I thought the country's electriciy needs were greater than ever before? I can't believe that a car = 4 lightbulbs.
I hear that reserve production is very slim now as the much-vaunted renewables are variable and unstorable.
I think a lot is down to just reducing paying for excess capacity we don't need. With powerplants etc before you couldn't really reduce and increase in the time that everyone turns their kettle on at half time in the footie. So it ran at a higher load with a lot of waste. Now there is more storage options/ things can react more quickly. So we run more efficiently, but with the downside risk of being a bit closer to cuts if something goes wrong.I hear that reserve production is very slim now as the much-vaunted renewables are variable and unstorable.
Heres Johnny said:
But the other way to think of all this is gas central heating went from virtually nothing to mass installation over a few years in the 1970s.. from very little domestic gas use to the majority of houses heated by gas in a relatively few years - the UK didn't fall apart. EV adoption will be over a long time period and things will adjust to cope.
Handily coinciding with North Sea gas... but now imported from Russia. Generally not wise to be dependent on things imported from less-than-pally nations in case they start playing silly buggers.If we are to go from a petrol/diesel transport system to an electric one we're going to need s
tloads of electricity. Like, stloads (if you'll forgive the industry jargon!). Convert everyone's miles per day into megawatts - where are we? I'd suggest we'll need to burn just as many carbons to make the electrons 
Heres Johnny said:
V8 Fettler said:
I occasionally suffer 550 mile days, routinely 150 - 200 mile days. An EV with a 1000 mile range works for me, 300 or less is no good.
Typical existing EV range means home charging for many.
There's a market for one driver, its not exactly main stream. They're not going to add approx half a ton of batteries to give just you a 1000 mile rangeTypical existing EV range means home charging for many.
Secondly - a 1000 mile range on current performance would equate to something like a 300kwh battery. Home charging at a typical 7kw would take about 2 days - so its not really practical in that sense either.
Heres Johnny said:
-
If you think 1000 range is needed you’re probably not driving an EV now.
You're right, I'm not driving an EV now, but perhaps in the future, when their performance improves.If you think 1000 range is needed you’re probably not driving an EV now.
Many cars in the 1970s had a range of 200 miles or less, many cars now have a range of 600 miles or more, some can offer 900 miles plus.
V8 Fettler said:
Heres Johnny said:
We’ll not be having cars with 1000 mile range anytime soon. Musk himself doesn’t see the need to go above 100kwh in std cars other than for performance and if they can pack in more power they’ll just reduce weight. If you think 1000 range is needed you’re probably not driving an EV now.
I occasionally suffer 550 mile days, routinely 150 - 200 mile days. An EV with a 1000 mile range works for me, 300 or less is no good.Typical existing EV range means home charging for many.
The other way to look at is if we were all to wake up tomorrow and our cars could only travel 50 miles per day how easily and quickly would our society adapt to this? The answer is that it would adapt incredibly rapidly.
But the real truth is that the long distances driven by a relatively small number of people living on a small island off the coast of an economically declining mainland may not be all that relevant and maybe we need to be looking at how the average Asian uses their motor car not us as they are the key global market for the motor car going forward?
And bringing TSLa back in, what relevance do they have in Asia? Close to none and that’s not likely to change. Are they a global company and are the operating in the key global markets? Or just a small, provincial manufacturer?
Edited by DonkeyApple on Tuesday 24th July 22:54
It often seems to be the person who does 1 or 2 trips for their holidays, who then applies that everyone needs an EV with a massive range for it to take off. In reality its probably a lot better to have an EV and then just rent a petrol car for those two holidays if you can't/don't want longer stops. Or potentially a long range EV in the future, and save carrying lots of heavy batteries around for all the mini trips.
DonkeyApple said:
V8 Fettler said:
Heres Johnny said:
We’ll not be having cars with 1000 mile range anytime soon. Musk himself doesn’t see the need to go above 100kwh in std cars other than for performance and if they can pack in more power they’ll just reduce weight. If you think 1000 range is needed you’re probably not driving an EV now.
I occasionally suffer 550 mile days, routinely 150 - 200 mile days. An EV with a 1000 mile range works for me, 300 or less is no good.Typical existing EV range means home charging for many.
The other way to look at is if we were all to wake up tomorrow and our cars could only travel 50 miles per day how easily and quickly would our society adapt to this? The answer is that it would adapt incredibly rapidly.
But the real truth is that the long distances driven by a relatively small number of people living on a small island off the coast of an economically declining mainland may not be all that relevant and maybe we need to be looking at how the average Asian uses their motor car not us as they are the key global market for the motor car going forward?
And bringing TSLa back in, what relevance do they have in Asia? Close to none and that’s not likely to change. Are they a global company and are the operating in the key global markets? Or just a small, provincial manufacturer?
Edited by DonkeyApple on Tuesday 24th July 22:54
As previously, the real answer is driverless EV cabs to be summoned by a mobile phone.
V8 Fettler said:
Most car journeys are short, a bicycle would be a better choice of transport for many of these short journeys, with added health benefits. However, range anxiety still applies even if the personal EV outside on the drive is fully charged e.g. "How can I drive through the night to see Auntie Doris if she suddenly falls desperately ill?".
As previously, the real answer is driverless EV cabs to be summoned by a mobile phone.
Definitely agree that the ultimate answer is the driverless Uber, especially as the population continue to become poorer and at the current rate many just won’t even be able to afford the weeklies on a basic utility transport. But, I don’t believe for one minute that we are remotely close to this being a viable product. The EV and autonomy industries are rife with abject dishonesty, deception and propaganda. As previously, the real answer is driverless EV cabs to be summoned by a mobile phone.
Pilotless cars for decades are going to be like cycling. Only suitable in certain locations. I can easily see a Londoner taking a conventional minicab out to an M25 ‘hub’ where they will switch to a waiting driverless car to take them to their non town destination or the driverless hub of another town where they will dive out into a waiting piloted car but anyone who has ever tried to cross key parts of major cities where pedestrian traffic is high knows that fear is a vital element in making progresss across junctions and an autonomous vehicle won’t ever be programmed to create a perceived threat in order to make progress.
Cycling is a bit of a dead end. Few people want anything to do with cycling. Absolutely, it is a logical infill for journeys where walking is a little too far and there is a lack of public transport so long as you completely ignore geography, meteorology and consumerism. If you were to instantly tax people out of cars I would wager that just like in every country on the planet where cars remain too expensive for the masses the infil will be from the immediate rise of a highly complex and efficient minicab/bus hybrid system where no one sweats, no one has to store a bike, no one has to put on special clothing, no one has to adjust for the weather, no one has to worry about how to get their consumer goods home etc etc.
What’s important to consider is that if Aunty Bess is unwell then someone without a car can already get to Aunty Bess. And if millions don’t have cars then that system will expand to become infinitely more efficient.
But also, the range anxiety movement is often failing to recognise that their concerns really are statistical anomalies and if EVs become genuinely cheaper than ICE either through market forces or taxation then the entire country will switch overnight and enterprise will infill the anomalies. The wealthy already have second cars and poor will see things like the bus and coach networks expanding etc. But 99% of drivers will realise that they only drive a few miles a day and that they can charge their car wherever they go or live. We all remember just how quickly every pavement in the U.K. was dug up to install cable as soon as it became commercially viable via consumer demand. The moment EVs become cheaper than ICE then charging points are going to appear every ten feet across the whole of the U.K. and companies are going to be competing for our business before most going bust and the rest being swallowed up in a merger and acquisition frenzy.
As far as I am concerned the only thing stopping the masses from buying EVs is the price. They can’t afford them so they’re s
t. As soon as they are cheaper to buy then the masses will be butchering each other to get their hands on them and telling everyone who’ll listen that only winners drive EVs and that ICE are for poor and stupid people. All concept of range anxiety will have disappeared over night as the masses instantly switch their allegiance to save money but to look richer. In fact, there will almost certainly be a total reversal on the matter of range anxiety as the very people who once screamed that they needed a range of 1000 and even then couldn't charge it become the vanguard for bragging how superior they are because they only need a vehicle that has a 100 mile range and that they infill the anomalous requirements using their higher intellect and wealth. And this brings us back to Tesla as that is exactly what you already see amongst their ownership today and probably the same with other EV brands.
DonkeyApple said:
Definitely agree that the ultimate answer is the driverless Uber, especially as the population continue to become poorer and at the current rate many just won’t even be able to afford the weeklies on a basic utility transport. But, I don’t believe for one minute that we are remotely close to this being a viable product.
I don't see an acceptance by the general public either right now. If you are young and/or live in the city then I can see you being more into it but I think a lot of people won't want to use what will effectively be a form of public transport, then you have the lack of convenience which increases the more rural you are. Then there is the lack of freedom perceived or real your own car gives you, people won't want to give that up. But a gradual change is probably inevitable and preferable?
Money/affordability always plays a role for sure and we will probably see a number of incentives/disincentives from up high in future years, to wean us off IC cars. A sea change at some point will leave a lot of owners with a worthless 'asset' or if a scrappage type scheme was introduced the cost might be spread over us all? Plus there is managing the political/economic effects of a declining oil/gas industry as the EV side increases.
I have experience of electric bikes and these are impressive, and take much of the issues around cycling away if you wish, ie sweat and effort/hills but I agree still won't be popular/practical for most. From what I've read a Nissan Leaf I3 etc are pretty good at what they do too. I'd be interested on the thoughts about the efficiencies of large modes of transport, ie is a EV 35 ton HGV viable? Is there a sweet spot for EV as it seems to me that the onus is more on weight/drag being lowered (I3 wheels/tyres!) to increase range as battery energy is finite.
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