It's the Economy stupid.Carville: Clinton vs Bush.BWYRW.LAM
Discussion
I will try to pre-empt the incoming flak , by stating the obvious. , which is that price , money and value are perfectly legitimate , even necessary , topics for any car forum .
The Aventador SV thread highlights Aventador oversupply .
But just look at the Murcielago market …...the same old stock for the last 4 years , barely moving .
The fabled Countach…. are they really selling ?...….or is it just hopeful punters , both dealers and private sellers , asking for extraordinary prices .
Some research for a book led me down the ''economic cycles'' lane . Truly sobering reading , for whatever asset class you choose to look at .
Sticking to Lamborghini , the first ripples of the 1973 stock market crash were felt in , amongst other places , Bolivia , and led to the cancellation of an order for 5000 tractors from Lamborghini , which directly led to Ferruccio Lamborghini losing control of his car business.
Almost similar story with the X-BOW in the 2009 recession---saved by the financial might of Stefan Pierer's KTM/Cross Industries group
Ditto , late1989 , when Countachs were being sold at 1/4 the price they commanded in early 1988.
Look at 1929 , and cash really was king , with the Dow Jones losing even more than the 45% it lost in the 1973 debacle .
And economic cycles are just that …..cycles.
Add oversupply to Brexit , Trump's personal war with his biggest creditors, the Chinese , and Italy's Salvini choosing to ignore basic monetary sense and sending the Euro down today , and any luxury commodity is a risky asset to invest in .
But surely that is the point : Buy that Supercar you REALLY, REALLY want , and you will never want to sell it .
BWYRW = Buy What You Really Want
Don't buy it on Credit , and you will never have to sell it
And this applies to any car ---- you can have great fun in a £3k Mk1 MX5
The Aventador SV thread highlights Aventador oversupply .
But just look at the Murcielago market …...the same old stock for the last 4 years , barely moving .
The fabled Countach…. are they really selling ?...….or is it just hopeful punters , both dealers and private sellers , asking for extraordinary prices .
Some research for a book led me down the ''economic cycles'' lane . Truly sobering reading , for whatever asset class you choose to look at .
Sticking to Lamborghini , the first ripples of the 1973 stock market crash were felt in , amongst other places , Bolivia , and led to the cancellation of an order for 5000 tractors from Lamborghini , which directly led to Ferruccio Lamborghini losing control of his car business.
Almost similar story with the X-BOW in the 2009 recession---saved by the financial might of Stefan Pierer's KTM/Cross Industries group
Ditto , late1989 , when Countachs were being sold at 1/4 the price they commanded in early 1988.
Look at 1929 , and cash really was king , with the Dow Jones losing even more than the 45% it lost in the 1973 debacle .
And economic cycles are just that …..cycles.
Add oversupply to Brexit , Trump's personal war with his biggest creditors, the Chinese , and Italy's Salvini choosing to ignore basic monetary sense and sending the Euro down today , and any luxury commodity is a risky asset to invest in .
But surely that is the point : Buy that Supercar you REALLY, REALLY want , and you will never want to sell it .
BWYRW = Buy What You Really Want
Don't buy it on Credit , and you will never have to sell it
And this applies to any car ---- you can have great fun in a £3k Mk1 MX5
carspath said:
Bump. What's happening with other Marques ? I would have thought it is a topical issue , worth discussing ?
Well here’s a real data point for you in the current market...Bought a 2005 plate 12,000 mile Ferrari F430 in Feb 2011 for £78,000
Just sold it to a main dealer in September 2018 at 34,000 miles for £60,000
Dealer sold it on within 48 hours for £79,000
red_duke said:
Well here’s a real data point for you in the current market...
Bought a 2005 plate 12,000 mile Ferrari F430 in Feb 2011 for £78,000
Just sold it to a main dealer in September 2018 at 34,000 miles for £60,000
Dealer sold it on within 48 hours for £79,000
Only 60k?Bought a 2005 plate 12,000 mile Ferrari F430 in Feb 2011 for £78,000
Just sold it to a main dealer in September 2018 at 34,000 miles for £60,000
Dealer sold it on within 48 hours for £79,000
That would have sold privately on here at 69,950 fairly quickly I reckon...
red_duke said:
Well here’s a real data point for you in the current market...
Bought a 2005 plate 12,000 mile Ferrari F430 in Feb 2011 for £78,000
Just sold it to a main dealer in September 2018 at 34,000 miles for £60,000
Dealer sold it on within 48 hours for £79,000
After a quick sale?Bought a 2005 plate 12,000 mile Ferrari F430 in Feb 2011 for £78,000
Just sold it to a main dealer in September 2018 at 34,000 miles for £60,000
Dealer sold it on within 48 hours for £79,000
Another data point; a guy I know well sold a perfect sub-10k miles red/cream 2008 430F1 Coupe early in the year for 70k after it being advertised for quite a while.
I think the market is dead. Not just the UK, the US seems the same, if not worse. The ‘sticks’ aren’t shifting for anything like what they think they’re worth.
The numbers for sale is the evidence. There were very few 360’s for sale 3 years ago, I’ve not looked on PH but I bet it’s close to 100 now.
In 2012 I bought a low in market 2000 360 F1 in Silver with 27k miles for just over £40k. If I was selling now with close to 50k miles, I’d realistically expect <40k if I wanted it to sell not sit. Which is far more than I would have expected when I’d bought it. I’d expected it to be in the 20’s now and who knows it may well be soon.
I love the car, know it inside out and it’s a keeper......if the market truly collapses I’ll add another.
Definitely buy what you want and don’t be put off buy these type of posts as they are just opinions, but confidence is a strange beast. It came out of nowhere in 2013 and seems to have crept back under a stone again.
People will blame Brexit/Trump/the hot summer/<insert anything that fits your narrative> but it’s happened before and it will happen again.
red_duke said:
Well here’s a real data point for you in the current market...
Bought a 2005 plate 12,000 mile Ferrari F430 in Feb 2011 for £78,000
Just sold it to a main dealer in September 2018 at 34,000 miles for £60,000
Dealer sold it on within 48 hours for £79,000
That is some spread by the dealer........Bought a 2005 plate 12,000 mile Ferrari F430 in Feb 2011 for £78,000
Just sold it to a main dealer in September 2018 at 34,000 miles for £60,000
Dealer sold it on within 48 hours for £79,000
Bought a 2002 AM Vanquish, mainly for investment reasons, as seemed underpriced for the last Newport Pagnell, handbuilt model, that was in a Bond film blah blah.
Prices are now the same or less than when I bought it a couple of years ago, having seemingly risen £10 - £20K until a few months back.
Not fussed though, as in it for the long run and have fallen in love with the car, even just opening the garage to look at her make me smile. Even my wife likes it!
Prices are now the same or less than when I bought it a couple of years ago, having seemingly risen £10 - £20K until a few months back.
Not fussed though, as in it for the long run and have fallen in love with the car, even just opening the garage to look at her make me smile. Even my wife likes it!
I couldn’t agree more with much of what the OP says.
Finance is what’s changed everything, for the time being.
But buying a wasting asset, that costs money to run and maintain, on finance is just to gear up on any financial pain.
Bought my first car, a Lamborghini Jalpa (couldn’t really afford it and didn’t have enough money left to eat properly that week), in 1987 for £20k.
Out of the blue (no idea how he got my number) Tom Hartley rang me up in 1989 and offered me £60k for it.
I’ve still got that car.
It quickly went back to being worth £20k.
Until the last few years.
He’s had one up for ages now at £100k............
Who cares.
Took it to Blenheim Supercar Sunday this year and had a lovely time with the kids and a nice chat with a chap who’d bought his Silhouette.
Finance is what’s changed everything, for the time being.
But buying a wasting asset, that costs money to run and maintain, on finance is just to gear up on any financial pain.
Bought my first car, a Lamborghini Jalpa (couldn’t really afford it and didn’t have enough money left to eat properly that week), in 1987 for £20k.
Out of the blue (no idea how he got my number) Tom Hartley rang me up in 1989 and offered me £60k for it.
I’ve still got that car.
It quickly went back to being worth £20k.
Until the last few years.
He’s had one up for ages now at £100k............
Who cares.
Took it to Blenheim Supercar Sunday this year and had a lovely time with the kids and a nice chat with a chap who’d bought his Silhouette.
mike01606 said:
Definitely buy what you want and don’t be put off buy these type of posts as they are just opinions, but confidence is a strange beast. It came out of nowhere in 2013 and seems to have crept back under a stone again.
People will blame Brexit/Trump/the hot summer/<insert anything that fits your narrative> but it’s happened before and it will happen again.
Everything happens for a reason so unsure the "anything fits your narrative" line is fair - some people choose to bury their head in the stand and ignore the reality, bit like Brexit People will blame Brexit/Trump/the hot summer/<insert anything that fits your narrative> but it’s happened before and it will happen again.
The answer's complicated but there is one.
I posted this on a 996T thread on the Porsche bit of this forum:
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/classified/advert/201...
"reduced to clear".......not the sort of phrase you expect to see associated with a Supercar. Another poster states that it has been reduced by £6K, or circa 16%. Not sure how true that is.
What does this say about the market? 97K miles is not excessive for a 996T; there are plenty about with similar or more miles and the description seems OK.
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/classified/advert/201...
"reduced to clear".......not the sort of phrase you expect to see associated with a Supercar. Another poster states that it has been reduced by £6K, or circa 16%. Not sure how true that is.
What does this say about the market? 97K miles is not excessive for a 996T; there are plenty about with similar or more miles and the description seems OK.
Spoke to a few Lotus dealers yesterday -- both franchise and independent
(My 145,000 mile 1993 MX5 Series 1 has some slight rear wheel arch bubbling , and an S
2 Exige as a replacement would be lovely ---if I can still clamber in that is )
One very well known dealer tod me that they were no longer buying in any used cars , due to ''economic uncertainty '' .
Another said that the price hikes of the S2 over the last 2 years , means that it is currently overpriced .
Put that together with all the factors I mentioned in my first post , and the implications of Apple's warning yesterday , and it is clear that used car prices (Supercar or otherwise ) are probably on their way down .( the real rare , old ,24 carat stuff excepted )
Better get my welding kit out then , and try and hang on for another 12 months .
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(My 145,000 mile 1993 MX5 Series 1 has some slight rear wheel arch bubbling , and an S
2 Exige as a replacement would be lovely ---if I can still clamber in that is )
One very well known dealer tod me that they were no longer buying in any used cars , due to ''economic uncertainty '' .
Another said that the price hikes of the S2 over the last 2 years , means that it is currently overpriced .
Put that together with all the factors I mentioned in my first post , and the implications of Apple's warning yesterday , and it is clear that used car prices (Supercar or otherwise ) are probably on their way down .( the real rare , old ,24 carat stuff excepted )
Better get my welding kit out then , and try and hang on for another 12 months .
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