Is it me but does the Funds market look a bit frothy
Discussion
98elise said:
Cash (within the SIPP) in the short term. I started selling this week and have liquidated 30% of my funds (by value).
If the situation with corona looks like it's going to impact the stock market then I want to be far less exposed while things settle.
Interesting If the situation with corona looks like it's going to impact the stock market then I want to be far less exposed while things settle.
I'm pretty cautiously positioned anyway with around 50% in "preservation" funds so I'm not doing anything hasty.
I wonder if this is more a question of "Should you be in 100% equities?" unless I misread and you aren't.
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hstewie said:
hstewie said:98elise said:
Cash (within the SIPP) in the short term. I started selling this week and have liquidated 30% of my funds (by value).
If the situation with corona looks like it's going to impact the stock market then I want to be far less exposed while things settle.
Interesting If the situation with corona looks like it's going to impact the stock market then I want to be far less exposed while things settle.
I'm pretty cautiously positioned anyway with around 50% in "preservation" funds so I'm not doing anything hasty.
I wonder if this is more a question of "Should you be in 100% equities?" unless I misread and you aren't.
That represent about 50% of my total investment pot though,the rest being in property.
I don't normally have any substantial amount in cash beyond a few k for emergencies.
98elise said:
If the situation with corona looks like it's going to impact the stock market then I want to be far less exposed while things settle.
Eh?What on earth do you mean “if the situation with corona looks like it’s going to impact the stock market”?
Have you been living under a rock for the last three or four weeks?!
Corona has been probably the single biggest impact on global stock markets over the last month. We’ve already been through the worst of it and more-or-less come out the other side - had you not noticed?
Interest rates will be super low for the foreseeable future, government bond yields can't beat inflation and the overall world economy is relatively stable (corona virus will be forgotten in a few weeks) can't see equities going out of fashion any time soon. Holding gold isnt the answer.
Dr Mike Oxgreen said:
98elise said:
If the situation with corona looks like it's going to impact the stock market then I want to be far less exposed while things settle.
Eh?What on earth do you mean “if the situation with corona looks like it’s going to impact the stock market”?
Have you been living under a rock for the last three or four weeks?!
Corona has been probably the single biggest impact on global stock markets over the last month. We’ve already been through the worst of it and more-or-less come out the other side - had you not noticed?
Maybe I'm being over cautious, but buying back into the same funds is simple if it comes to nothing I've not lost anything.
Vergis said:
.... I want to have some exposure in, but they all seem to be hitting close to all time highs.
Part of me thinks there will be an adjustment this year (not least the dreaded yield curve inverting last year .....
Part of me thinks there will be an adjustment this year (not least the dreaded yield curve inverting last year .....
After 30 years in this 'game', I have learnt that predicting markets is on the whole impossible. For that reason I don't dance in and out of equities, because being out of the market can miss the significant bounces. Historically, you only have to miss out on a few of the good weeks, to make an enormous difference to your long-term results.
As for all-time highs. This chart shows numerous all-time highs, but only very few of those marked the beginning of a major crash.
You will see a bump in 1987. That was a major stock market crash at the time, with some private investors saying, I am never going to buy shares ever again. Look what they missed out on in subseqent years. Funnily enough, 1987 as a whole ended the year slightly up, so the long-term holders were OK, but there was an enormous rise and then crash during that year.
The FTSE 100 Index was established in 1984.
As always, these lengthy charts are distorted by inflation.
Dividend income can form a significant portion of an investors total return, which is not included in this chart.
Edited by Jon39 on Friday 21st February 22:56
98elise said:
Dr Mike Oxgreen said:
98elise said:
If the situation with corona looks like it's going to impact the stock market then I want to be far less exposed while things settle.
Eh?What on earth do you mean “if the situation with corona looks like it’s going to impact the stock market”?
Have you been living under a rock for the last three or four weeks?!
Corona has been probably the single biggest impact on global stock markets over the last month. We’ve already been through the worst of it and more-or-less come out the other side - had you not noticed?
Maybe I'm being over cautious, but buying back into the same funds is simple if it comes to nothing I've not lost anything.
Dr Mike - have you seen something to the contrary over the past few weeks? Which areas?
I can see this week is ending on a low for the Nasdaq at least, but if I look at the last month, it is up from about 9,200 to 9,600.
(& all that said, as mentioned earlier, I have attempted to 'de-risk' my funds to a degree only this week....now to sit back and watch!!)
98elise said:
My SIPP has never been higher? The FTSE charts doesn't seem to be showing any significant falls?Company's are however starting to warn of falling sales ahead due to parts/stock shortages. How do you know we've been through the worst of it?
Maybe I'm being over cautious, but buying back into the same funds is simple if it comes to nothing I've not lost anything.
If you miss out on 2 1% days you've missed out on quite a bit? Buying back into the same funds at a higher level is not ideal. Maybe I'm being over cautious, but buying back into the same funds is simple if it comes to nothing I've not lost anything.
It's a long term game, if earnings are down 1 year because of corona virus, but that is all done with and not expected to be an issue in future then the stock will hold up pretty well. It only becomes an issue if it is seen as an ongoing issue.
In addition it’s often not a case of just buying in at same price. Typically it will be a case of something happens in the market, maybe has a 2% drop. It becomes a bigger issue, market is then down say 5%. People panic sell due to loss, or greed, thinking they’ll buy in cheaper later. It goes down to 6% loss. Happy person. It then bounces up to a total of 4% loss on original money. Person waits as it’s one of those bounces on the way down so no worries. Goes all the way back up to no loss on original money and market forgets about problem. Person panic buys back in. Result - 5% realised loss due to thinking they are better at predicting the markets.
98elise said:
From a SIPP/ISA perspective I was was 100% in equities (funds).
That represent about 50% of my total investment pot though,the rest being in property.
I don't normally have any substantial amount in cash beyond a few k for emergencies.
I'm cautious how easy it is to time the market which is basically what it sounds like you're trying to do.That represent about 50% of my total investment pot though,the rest being in property.
I don't normally have any substantial amount in cash beyond a few k for emergencies.
Each to their own but I think the historical evidence shows it's "better" to get your allocation sorted and just sit tight.
Saves losing sleep worrying about it
JulianPH said:
You should enjoy checking PH Equity this morning then!
Up just shy of 2% on the day totalling a 14.48% rise over the last 13 weeks.
S&P 500 achieved just 6.9% over the same period, so we doubled this!
quickly checks the dashboard - Up just shy of 2% on the day totalling a 14.48% rise over the last 13 weeks.
S&P 500 achieved just 6.9% over the same period, so we doubled this!
wow - that a nice jump on the PH equity over the last few days let alone the last few months.
Hope to meet up with you and the team if you are at Brands Hatch later in the year.
superlightr said:
JulianPH said:
You should enjoy checking PH Equity this morning then!
Up just shy of 2% on the day totalling a 14.48% rise over the last 13 weeks.
S&P 500 achieved just 6.9% over the same period, so we doubled this!
quickly checks the dashboard - Up just shy of 2% on the day totalling a 14.48% rise over the last 13 weeks.
S&P 500 achieved just 6.9% over the same period, so we doubled this!
wow - that a nice jump on the PH equity over the last few days let alone the last few months.
Hope to meet up with you and the team if you are at Brands Hatch later in the year.
Nik will be at every race and I am trying to do the same. I am not sure I can make all of them yet, bit obviously don't want to miss out on any of them and the chance to meet the many PHers attending, so hopefully I will see you there!
JulianPH said:
You should enjoy checking PH Equity this morning then!
Up just shy of 2% on the day totalling a 14.48% rise over the last 13 weeks.
S&P 500 achieved just 6.9% over the same period, so we doubled this!
I'll soon fix that if I ever get around to sending you guys some money!Up just shy of 2% on the day totalling a 14.48% rise over the last 13 weeks.
S&P 500 achieved just 6.9% over the same period, so we doubled this!
Sheepshanks said:
JulianPH said:
You should enjoy checking PH Equity this morning then!
Up just shy of 2% on the day totalling a 14.48% rise over the last 13 weeks.
S&P 500 achieved just 6.9% over the same period, so we doubled this!
I'll soon fix that if I ever get around to sending you guys some money!Up just shy of 2% on the day totalling a 14.48% rise over the last 13 weeks.
S&P 500 achieved just 6.9% over the same period, so we doubled this!
Dr Mike Oxgreen said:
98elise said:
If the situation with corona looks like it's going to impact the stock market then I want to be far less exposed while things settle.
Eh?What on earth do you mean “if the situation with corona looks like it’s going to impact the stock market”?
Have you been living under a rock for the last three or four weeks?!
Corona has been probably the single biggest impact on global stock markets over the last month. We’ve already been through the worst of it and more-or-less come out the other side - had you not noticed?
Stocks like Easyjet have taken the biggest battering though.
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