Just how far can Covid 19 drive down the markets?
Discussion
mikeiow said:
i4got said:
Ireland have said today they will not go back into lockdown if a second wave occurs.
I doubt anyone would, UNLESS that second wave turned ferociously into something bigger than the first....and I doubt that will happen.I could envisage some tweaks (for example, they open up pubs clubs in Sept-Oct, then Nov-Dec see's a big enough spike for them to cut down or out the large gatherings).
Personally....I don't think I will bother with large gatherings this year......you know what they say....two's company....
i4got said:
Ireland have said today they will not go back into lockdown if a second wave occurs.
Back at the outset it was stated as such by the UK Govt. They made it clear that the purpose of lockdown was to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed and that there would be multiple waves after the first but that they would not trigger lockdowns so long as the NHS could cope. Fast forward to today and we now have the Nightingales on line and vastly more capacity then at the outset. My interpretation of the Govt’s words to date is that so long as the NHS can meet requirements then the British people will not be nannied but be treated with respect and allowed to decide for themselves what their course of action is, within reason.
I have had the feeling that in some regards, many of the people screaming for an end of the Nanny State have recently been screaming for the Nanny State to fix everything.
Those of us most at risk have to stand up and be counted and say that we, the minority, will stay away so that the majority and the youth of this country can move forward for all of our benefits. Maybe there ought to be a day of the week given over for this minority to have the shops to themselves and similar efforts where plausible but we just can’t destroy the futures of school children, young workers and so many other people who have very little risk for the benefit of the small number who do.
JulianPH said:
Can I get your VIP tickets for the IM British GT Championship back then!
LOL - dammit - the one that was cancelled?!Hopefully it'll come back as per their current plan....I'll bring out a face mask for that exception. In fact I have this little number lined up:
Perhaps should ping you & Nik with preferred alternative - might have to aim for mid Aug in Donington, before 'the kids' head away!
DonkeyApple said:
Back at the outset it was stated as such by the UK Govt. They made it clear that the purpose of lockdown was to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed and that there would be multiple waves after the first but that they would not trigger lockdowns so long as the NHS could cope. Fast forward to today and we now have the Nightingales on line and vastly more capacity then at the outset.
My interpretation of the Govt’s words to date is that so long as the NHS can meet requirements then the British people will not be nannied but be treated with respect and allowed to decide for themselves what their course of action is, within reason.
I have had the feeling that in some regards, many of the people screaming for an end of the Nanny State have recently been screaming for the Nanny State to fix everything.
Those of us most at risk have to stand up and be counted and say that we, the minority, will stay away so that the majority and the youth of this country can move forward for all of our benefits. Maybe there ought to be a day of the week given over for this minority to have the shops to themselves and similar efforts where plausible but we just can’t destroy the futures of school children, young workers and so many other people who have very little risk for the benefit of the small number who do.
Yup....broadly agree with this, especially the last paragraph...although I cannot see how that last point might work in reality. My interpretation of the Govt’s words to date is that so long as the NHS can meet requirements then the British people will not be nannied but be treated with respect and allowed to decide for themselves what their course of action is, within reason.
I have had the feeling that in some regards, many of the people screaming for an end of the Nanny State have recently been screaming for the Nanny State to fix everything.
Those of us most at risk have to stand up and be counted and say that we, the minority, will stay away so that the majority and the youth of this country can move forward for all of our benefits. Maybe there ought to be a day of the week given over for this minority to have the shops to themselves and similar efforts where plausible but we just can’t destroy the futures of school children, young workers and so many other people who have very little risk for the benefit of the small number who do.
Mind you, anything is possible, given a will and a willingness.....we are, after all, entirely in uncharted territory this year. For pretty well everything!
DonkeyApple said:
Besides which, maybe the real play here is that China is economically and politically focussed and the US at a time when strength and focus could never be more critical and important to the West is a total basket case.
Why so many people miss China's intentions and game-play mystify me. They play a multi-generational game whereas we have anti-Trump, BLM demos and short-termism to keep our eyes off the big game.jshell said:
DonkeyApple said:
Besides which, maybe the real play here is that China is economically and politically focussed and the US at a time when strength and focus could never be more critical and important to the West is a total basket case.
Why so many people miss China's intentions and game-play mystify me. They play a multi-generational game whereas we have anti-Trump, BLM demos and short-termism to keep our eyes off the big game.Like him or not Trump is the first western leader who has properly recognised the threat this poses to his country's economic and political position and is trying to challenge it even if you think he's screwing up everything else up.
Edited by Miopyk on Saturday 13th June 13:28
mikeiow said:
JulianPH said:
Can I get your VIP tickets for the IM British GT Championship back then!
LOL - dammit - the one that was cancelled?!Hopefully it'll come back as per their current plan....I'll bring out a face mask for that exception. In fact I have this little number lined up:
Perhaps should ping you & Nik with preferred alternative - might have to aim for mid Aug in Donington, before 'the kids' head away!
I will post this on the IM thread on Monday.
Miopyk said:
jshell said:
DonkeyApple said:
Besides which, maybe the real play here is that China is economically and politically focussed and the US at a time when strength and focus could never be more critical and important to the West is a total basket case.
Why so many people miss China's intentions and game-play mystify me. They play a multi-generational game whereas we have anti-Trump, BLM demos and short-termism to keep our eyes off the big game.Like him or not Trump is the first western leader who has properly recognised the threat this poses to his country's economic and political position and is trying to challenge it even if you think he's screwing up everything else up.
Edited by Miopyk on Saturday 13th June 13:28
The other way to look at is that we have outsourced all our cheap labour work to China because our society now frowns upon workers heads falling off or workers starving in the gutter. However, all it would need to cripple China almost overnight would be for us living in the West to stop buying s
t we don’t need. China exists because it is convenient to the West to outsource vast amounts to where land and labour are cheap and no one cares about kittens. That’s the uncomfortable truth. And the more tat we buy with money we haven’t got the richer and more powerful we make China. One day we will have bought all we can buy and then the East won’t have a need for the West.
We can’t really blame the Chinese for doing what we’ve paid them to do. Like we can’t be surprised they fired up their tat factories ASAP from Covid when there were hundreds of millions of Weatern consumers sitting online demanding to buy tat.
t we don’t need. China exists because it is convenient to the West to outsource vast amounts to where land and labour are cheap and no one cares about kittens. That’s the uncomfortable truth. And the more tat we buy with money we haven’t got the richer and more powerful we make China. One day we will have bought all we can buy and then the East won’t have a need for the West. We can’t really blame the Chinese for doing what we’ve paid them to do. Like we can’t be surprised they fired up their tat factories ASAP from Covid when there were hundreds of millions of Weatern consumers sitting online demanding to buy tat.
DonkeyApple said:
The other way to look at is that we have outsourced all our cheap labour work to China because our society now frowns upon workers heads falling off or workers starving in the gutter. However, all it would need to cripple China almost overnight would be for us living in the West to stop buying st we don’t need. China exists because it is convenient to the West to outsource vast amounts to where land and labour are cheap and no one cares about kittens. That’s the uncomfortable truth. And the more tat we buy with money we haven’t got the richer and more powerful we make China. One day we will have bought all we can buy and then the East won’t have a need for the West.
We can’t really blame the Chinese for doing what we’ve paid them to do. Like we can’t be surprised they fired up their tat factories ASAP from Covid when there were hundreds of millions of Weatern consumers sitting online demanding to buy tat.
To be honest, I am fed up of you sitting on the fence regarding this.t we don’t need. China exists because it is convenient to the West to outsource vast amounts to where land and labour are cheap and no one cares about kittens. That’s the uncomfortable truth. And the more tat we buy with money we haven’t got the richer and more powerful we make China. One day we will have bought all we can buy and then the East won’t have a need for the West. We can’t really blame the Chinese for doing what we’ve paid them to do. Like we can’t be surprised they fired up their tat factories ASAP from Covid when there were hundreds of millions of Weatern consumers sitting online demanding to buy tat.
bmwmike said:
Miopyk said:
jshell said:
DonkeyApple said:
Besides which, maybe the real play here is that China is economically and politically focussed and the US at a time when strength and focus could never be more critical and important to the West is a total basket case.
Why so many people miss China's intentions and game-play mystify me. They play a multi-generational game whereas we have anti-Trump, BLM demos and short-termism to keep our eyes off the big game.Like him or not Trump is the first western leader who has properly recognised the threat this poses to his country's economic and political position and is trying to challenge it even if you think he's screwing up everything else up.
Edited by Miopyk on Saturday 13th June 13:28
JulianPH said:
DonkeyApple said:
The other way to look at is that we have outsourced all our cheap labour work to China because our society now frowns upon workers heads falling off or workers starving in the gutter. However, all it would need to cripple China almost overnight would be for us living in the West to stop buying st we don’t need. China exists because it is convenient to the West to outsource vast amounts to where land and labour are cheap and no one cares about kittens. That’s the uncomfortable truth. And the more tat we buy with money we haven’t got the richer and more powerful we make China. One day we will have bought all we can buy and then the East won’t have a need for the West.
We can’t really blame the Chinese for doing what we’ve paid them to do. Like we can’t be surprised they fired up their tat factories ASAP from Covid when there were hundreds of millions of Weatern consumers sitting online demanding to buy tat.
To be honest, I am fed up of you sitting on the fence regarding this.t we don’t need. China exists because it is convenient to the West to outsource vast amounts to where land and labour are cheap and no one cares about kittens. That’s the uncomfortable truth. And the more tat we buy with money we haven’t got the richer and more powerful we make China. One day we will have bought all we can buy and then the East won’t have a need for the West. We can’t really blame the Chinese for doing what we’ve paid them to do. Like we can’t be surprised they fired up their tat factories ASAP from Covid when there were hundreds of millions of Weatern consumers sitting online demanding to buy tat.
DonkeyApple said:
The other way to look at is that we have outsourced all our cheap labour work to China because our society now frowns upon workers heads falling off or workers starving in the gutter. However, all it would need to cripple China almost overnight would be for us living in the West to stop buying st we don’t need. China exists because it is convenient to the West to outsource vast amounts to where land and labour are cheap and no one cares about kittens. That’s the uncomfortable truth. And the more tat we buy with money we haven’t got the richer and more powerful we make China. One day we will have bought all we can buy and then the East won’t have a need for the West.
We can’t really blame the Chinese for doing what we’ve paid them to do. Like we can’t be surprised they fired up their tat factories ASAP from Covid when there were hundreds of millions of Weatern consumers sitting online demanding to buy tat.
I think you're right but I also think the consumerist genie will be hard if not impossible to get back in the bottle especially with a billion Chinese wanting a piece of the pie. The one thing this pandemic has exposed is our total dependence on China for more critical consumables, machinery, infrastructure etc. needed by the west to keep the wheels turning. That on top of the underlying noise about the source of the pandemic will likely have serious repercussions for them.t we don’t need. China exists because it is convenient to the West to outsource vast amounts to where land and labour are cheap and no one cares about kittens. That’s the uncomfortable truth. And the more tat we buy with money we haven’t got the richer and more powerful we make China. One day we will have bought all we can buy and then the East won’t have a need for the West. We can’t really blame the Chinese for doing what we’ve paid them to do. Like we can’t be surprised they fired up their tat factories ASAP from Covid when there were hundreds of millions of Weatern consumers sitting online demanding to buy tat.
You can already see the US starting to see South and Central America as more strategic and convenient in terms of resources/costs/security so this has and will get a lot more interesting. I'm not a Trump fan but I do think this is one area where he's ahead of the other western leaders in terms of recognising the threat and likely outcome if nothing is done.
JulianPH said:
To be honest, I am fed up of you sitting on the fence regarding this.
It was just a quick note while I was struggling to work out why blokes doing Nazi salutes were protecting a black statue of a chap called Winston against a group of confused students and some guys who are clearly hoping to lift some free TVs after 5pm. I’m going to start drinking as I think it will allow me to make more sense of things. bmwmike said:
Miopyk said:
jshell said:
DonkeyApple said:
Besides which, maybe the real play here is that China is economically and politically focussed and the US at a time when strength and focus could never be more critical and important to the West is a total basket case.
Why so many people miss China's intentions and game-play mystify me. They play a multi-generational game whereas we have anti-Trump, BLM demos and short-termism to keep our eyes off the big game.Like him or not Trump is the first western leader who has properly recognised the threat this poses to his country's economic and political position and is trying to challenge it even if you think he's screwing up everything else up.
Edited by Miopyk on Saturday 13th June 13:28
The conversation I had today with 2 CoL Risk Assesors makes me think of selling the house and buying a croft on a Scottish island, quite frankly. The real s
t-show begins around October this year as the results hit.DonkeyApple said:
The other way to look at is that we have outsourced all our cheap labour work to China because our society now frowns upon workers heads falling off or workers starving in the gutter. However, all it would need to cripple China almost overnight would be for us living in the West to stop buying st we don’t need. China exists because it is convenient to the West to outsource vast amounts to where land and labour are cheap and no one cares about kittens. That’s the uncomfortable truth. And the more tat we buy with money we haven’t got the richer and more powerful we make China. One day we will have bought all we can buy and then the East won’t have a need for the West.
We can’t really blame the Chinese for doing what we’ve paid them to do. Like we can’t be surprised they fired up their tat factories ASAP from Covid when there were hundreds of millions of Weatern consumers sitting online demanding to buy tat.
The majority of Western consumers are addicted to Chinese crap as they are addicted to Love Island and whatever other bubblegum for the brain is on offer...t we don’t need. China exists because it is convenient to the West to outsource vast amounts to where land and labour are cheap and no one cares about kittens. That’s the uncomfortable truth. And the more tat we buy with money we haven’t got the richer and more powerful we make China. One day we will have bought all we can buy and then the East won’t have a need for the West. We can’t really blame the Chinese for doing what we’ve paid them to do. Like we can’t be surprised they fired up their tat factories ASAP from Covid when there were hundreds of millions of Weatern consumers sitting online demanding to buy tat.
DonkeyApple said:
The other way to look at is that we have outsourced all our cheap labour work to China because our society now frowns upon workers heads falling off or workers starving in the gutter. However, all it would need to cripple China almost overnight would be for us living in the West to stop buying st we don’t need. China exists because it is convenient to the West to outsource vast amounts to where land and labour are cheap and no one cares about kittens. That’s the uncomfortable truth. And the more tat we buy with money we haven’t got the richer and more powerful we make China. One day we will have bought all we can buy and then the East won’t have a need for the West.
We can’t really blame the Chinese for doing what we’ve paid them to do. Like we can’t be surprised they fired up their tat factories ASAP from Covid when there were hundreds of millions of Weatern consumers sitting online demanding to buy tat.
Certainly large parts of China that is still the case. However, in part they are now as advanced if not further ahead than the west for some things. The outsourcing etc has enabled them to massively grow the economy, which then combined with a lack of adherence to copyright etc has meant they can catch up fast. I'd suspect they'll continue ahead for a while just because it is in the mindset (a lot of the west now is focused on so many small problems we're not really going anywhere) but eventually they will stall and a lot of the cheap production of stuff move elsewhere (some of it already is). The difference with China is they have a big enough country to be able to copy the US and become such a huge growth machine, whereas many small countries will never be able to do that as there's not enough people/land etc to diversify in just one land. t we don’t need. China exists because it is convenient to the West to outsource vast amounts to where land and labour are cheap and no one cares about kittens. That’s the uncomfortable truth. And the more tat we buy with money we haven’t got the richer and more powerful we make China. One day we will have bought all we can buy and then the East won’t have a need for the West. We can’t really blame the Chinese for doing what we’ve paid them to do. Like we can’t be surprised they fired up their tat factories ASAP from Covid when there were hundreds of millions of Weatern consumers sitting online demanding to buy tat.
Fly in the ointment is natural resources, one of note is fresh water, becoming increasingly a real problem with the desertification and pollution across Asia.
China is in a land grab for resources across the globe, the west has been caught asleep at the helm.
China hasn’t got the largest military in the world for showing off. As is the case in the south china sea, we either put up with their imperialism or take our bows and arrows to the gun fight.
An dont mention all the sovereign debt they own.
The classic comeback to this is that china needs western consumption so they want to be friends. They do, for now, but in time they will have created their own domestic demand and the west will be at the back of the queue.
More importantly what the hell does any of this have to do with the thread?
China is in a land grab for resources across the globe, the west has been caught asleep at the helm.
China hasn’t got the largest military in the world for showing off. As is the case in the south china sea, we either put up with their imperialism or take our bows and arrows to the gun fight.
An dont mention all the sovereign debt they own.
The classic comeback to this is that china needs western consumption so they want to be friends. They do, for now, but in time they will have created their own domestic demand and the west will be at the back of the queue.
More importantly what the hell does any of this have to do with the thread?
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