"Safe" investment, maybe gold?

[dom9]

Back over $2000/oz and 'my' small producer just announced a 144% extension in reserves, to 1.78 million ounces, at their 2nd site (Thor, THX on LSE).

Will gold be seen as the safe haven in the coming months and go on a big run... I think 'maybe' - I am certainly not selling out.

[ATM]

dom9 said:

Back over $2000/oz and 'my' small producer just announced a 144% extension in reserves, to 1.78 million ounces, at their 2nd site (Thor, THX on LSE).

Will gold be seen as the safe haven in the coming months and go on a big run... I think 'maybe' - I am certainly not selling out.

Well if it does get a bid then the momentum traders will arrive and then we will see. Even if that just starts with the top 1% or top 0.5% it should be enough to get price moving higher.

[Mr Whippy]

This has all happened before.

Up to 2007 we had inflation in energy, petrol etc went from about £1.40 to £0.90 over the 08-09 period.

A recession and job losses. Housing market maladies.

Interest rates had gone up, but then came down abnormally afterwards.


People just look for a way for the status quo to continue. Can kicking.

I don’t see people who genuinely want the alternative yet… they’d like the utopia out the other side, but no one has the stomach for 20-30 years of doldrums we’d face going for a truly sustainable set up in my view.

And how’d that even work with China looming large? We need a big stupid military to protect our interests, and with that big stupid military comes big greedy government, self interests and greedy wealthy people.


Honestly, nothing will change here. It’s rearranging deckchairs on the sinking Titanic.
Hoping, collectively, fusion energy arrives, or world peace sprouts out of nowhere, etc.

It won’t happen, the net human behaviour, for now, is greed and fear, and so our lives, in aggregate, are driven by that zeitgeist.
And I use zeitgeist because it’s not truly human nature to be the way we are, it’s a response in the West to the consumerist religion which has offset all else for many.



This thread itself is called ‘safe’ investment, maybe gold?

In the world where gold supposedly pays off, consumerism and wealth will be increasingly meaningless.

And the sentiment is driven by both greed and fear, “how will I have my consumerist bullst token buying power out the other side”?

Isn’t the real issue that we’re all just wes and addicts to our lifestyle? Unwilling for real change? Just desperate not to lose it all?

Edited by Mr Whippy on Monday 20th March 10:02

[Scootersp]

Mr Whippy said:

In the world where gold supposedly pays off, consumerism and wealth will be increasingly meaningless.

Edited by Mr Whippy on Monday 20th March 10:02

I don't see this sentence has to be true, Gold could go up depending on various factors and we could still be in a consumerist society (it's done x8 in the last 20 years and we've got more consumerist in this time?), arguably for me the green agenda threatens consumarism more?

[ATM]

Scootersp said:

Mr Whippy said:

In the world where gold supposedly pays off, consumerism and wealth will be increasingly meaningless.

Edited by Mr Whippy on Monday 20th March 10:02

I don't see this sentence has to be true, Gold could go up depending on various factors and we could still be in a consumerist society (it's done x8 in the last 20 years and we've got more consumerist in this time?), arguably for me the green agenda threatens consumarism more?

Yeah

I'm hoping for some middle ground. Even if our currencies continue and stick around they must surely just fall constantly [and maybe quicker] and therefore Gold will [hopefully] rise in comparison.

[Mr Whippy]

Scootersp said:

Mr Whippy said:

In the world where gold supposedly pays off, consumerism and wealth will be increasingly meaningless.

Edited by Mr Whippy on Monday 20th March 10:02

I don't see this sentence has to be true, Gold could go up depending on various factors and we could still be in a consumerist society (it's done x8 in the last 20 years and we've got more consumerist in this time?), arguably for me the green agenda threatens consumarism more?

I suppose when I said ‘pays off’ I meant something well beyond a 5yr moving average in line with inflation, which is roughly what it’s done.

I think some people expect a crash to happen and gold to be £20k/ounce, and they’ll make out like bandits and pay off the mortgage, buy a Lambo etc…


What we see time and again is gold not really doing much except being an inflation hedge… and ‘the system’ and the masses doing a great impression of Groundhog Day.


No one will make a “load of money” playing this game thinking it’s all rigged or thinking gold or bitcoin will make them mega money ‘when the time is right’

You’ve just got to get in there and not respond like a human.

[Scootersp]

Mr Whippy said:

I suppose when I said ‘pays off’ I meant something well beyond a 5yr moving average in line with inflation, which is roughly what it’s done.

I think some people expect a crash to happen and gold to be £20k/ounce, and they’ll make out like bandits and pay off the mortgage, buy a Lambo etc…

What we see time and again is gold not really doing much except being an inflation hedge… and ‘the system’ and the masses doing a great impression of Groundhog Day.

No one will make a “load of money” playing this game thinking it’s all rigged or thinking gold or bitcoin will make them mega money ‘when the time is right’

You’ve just got to get in there and not respond like a human.

Ok right yes, there seems to have to be a few promising the earth in every asset these days to get interest. Seems everything can potentially overshoot then on the hype of it all.

What I like about it, is it has cyclical 'moments' of out performance, often in difficult times or times when other things struggle, or there's uncertainty/fear. I think some of the geopolitical and financial system issues could create more.

Not so much after a Lambo, just to be able to afford the fuel for the car I've already got!

So a solid history of wealth preservation but with the odd chance of a speculative phase (or even some say a normalisation where the historic % holdings are returned to will cause a large price spike), which if is happens nice if not it does the inflation tracking or perhaps loses a bit, but will always do better than cash over any meaningful time frame.

[Mr Whippy]

Yeah I’ve got a bit and happy to have it as its performance as “cash in hand” equivalent, but broadly keeps pace with inflation (and better than cash in bank), is undeniable.

[soupdragon1]

Mr Whippy said:

Scootersp said:

Mr Whippy said:

In the world where gold supposedly pays off, consumerism and wealth will be increasingly meaningless.

Edited by Mr Whippy on Monday 20th March 10:02

I don't see this sentence has to be true, Gold could go up depending on various factors and we could still be in a consumerist society (it's done x8 in the last 20 years and we've got more consumerist in this time?), arguably for me the green agenda threatens consumarism more?

I suppose when I said ‘pays off’ I meant something well beyond a 5yr moving average in line with inflation, which is roughly what it’s done.

I think some people expect a crash to happen and gold to be £20k/ounce, and they’ll make out like bandits and pay off the mortgage, buy a Lambo etc…


What we see time and again is gold not really doing much except being an inflation hedge… and ‘the system’ and the masses doing a great impression of Groundhog Day.


No one will make a “load of money” playing this game thinking it’s all rigged or thinking gold or bitcoin will make them mega money ‘when the time is right’

You’ve just got to get in there and not respond like a human.

Gold may well reach $20k an ounce and you could almost say it's a nailed on certainty, on a long time horizon of course

Its important to look at it in relation to other currencies. Turks with a lot of gold will have been happy when they seen what happened to the Lira, however, if they bought dollars instead of gold, not much difference.

Twitter gold bugs always ignore such facts.

Are currency plays better, and more diversified than the metals? Chunk of gold versus a basket of currencies? Dunno.

But let's look at the dollar. $2k gets you a MacBook today or an ounce of gold. If the dollar goes a bit pear shaped and gold hits $5k, can you buy 2 MacBook or just 1 still?

If you're an American sitting on some cash and you don't like the dollar, maybe some gold is good.

In the UK, if the dollar plummets, that sterling in your bank is going to look a lot more desirable now.

All in all, if you think gold will give you better purchasing power in the future, it's a good idea to buy some. The big question though, is being able to actually predict the answer. If it doesn't give you more purchasing power, then there isn't much point. You absolutely have to consider how strong you think your home currency is and for us, that's the pound. You'd be as well shorting the dollar as buying gold perhaps.

Anyway, the whole thing makes my head hurt. So I just keep spending lol. My money can't lose its value if I spend it. Looked at a caravan on a holiday park a couple of weeks ago and went 'fk it, why not'

Sold a bunch of shares to pay for it, the day before the banking crisis kicked off with that bank in the US. Talk about timing the top

[ATM]

soupdragon1 said:

In the UK, if the dollar plummets, that sterling in your bank is going to look a lot more desirable now.

You can view charts of Gold priced in GBP and most or all of the other major currencies. Last week Gold hit a major high against GBP.

[ATM]

[ATM]

https://www.gold.co.uk/gold-price/3-year-gold-pric...

[RSTurboPaul]

Is something interesting going to happen to the USD / the BRICS proposals in a couple of weeks?

The President of Kenya appears to think so (assuming it's a genuine and recent video and headline, of course):

https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/16400180...

https://twitter.com/Pecorino007/status/16400246510...

Edited by RSTurboPaul on Monday 27th March 10:18

[bobski1]

RSTurboPaul said:

Is something interesting going to happen to the USD / the BRICS proposals in a couple of weeks?

The President of Kenya appears to think so (assuming it's a genuine and recent video and headline, of course):

https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/16400180...

https://twitter.com/Pecorino007/status/16400246510...

Edited by RSTurboPaul on Monday 27th March 10:18

Was there not a meeting recently with BRICS and leaders of Africa? Not sure on the outcome but perhaps a switch to selling resources from USD to another? This was big reason for the NATO invasion of Libya when it was proposed previously.

[ATM]

bobski1 said:

Was there not a meeting recently with BRICS and leaders of Africa? Not sure on the outcome but perhaps a switch to selling resources from USD to another? This was big reason for the NATO invasion of Libya when it was proposed previously.

Yes moving away from USD has caused wars previously. So some people believe this will cause war. Just talking about currencies and money - we have seen announcements of Saudis already saying they will accept other currencies for their Oil and it just passed without any real news. China is brokering new relationships between Saudi and Iran too - they were at war previously - or lets just say not friends.

So yes the East is all starting to join up and I see this as all very negative for the USD. The East hold most of the USD debt and therefore if they start selling then the USD is finished. I dont think they will do that before they are prepared. So they will slow down their buying and buy more Gold instead - or they may already be doing this. China has started reporting its Gold buying more regularly and previously they kept this all secret.

The pieces are all there. You can add these pieces to a conclusion however you want.

Failures of regional banks now has Yanky Joe Public moving their money from Banks and into Us Treasuries in the Money Markets. So the shenanigans from the FED is destroying banks and pushing people towards government debt instead because this is seen as safe. So for now this is becoming the safe haven and keeping some demand for treasuries.

Its all not looking good if you ask Me but I have been saying that for months.

[ATM]

article said:

China and Brazil have reached a deal to trade in their own currencies, ditching the US dollar as an intermediary, the Brazilian government said Wednesday, Beijing's latest salvo against the almighty greenback.

https://www.barrons.com/news/china-brazil-strike-deal-to-ditch-dollar-for-trade-8ed4e799

Just in case you dont know - recently China have started buying Corn from Brazil because they used to buy mainly from USA. USA is one of the biggest global suppliers for Corn.

[RSTurboPaul]

Have not checked this yet but...

https://twitter.com/MichaelPSenger/status/16411669...

Michael P Senger tweet said:

JUST IN: Saudi Arabia has joined a China-led security and trade alliance with China, Russia, India, and Pakistan.

[Scootersp]

Just thought I bump this given the banking wobbles and some parallels being made to the 2008 issues. During 2006-2010 the gold price soared and for whatever reason (money supply/debt increases?) it has largely continued to today as it's at all time highs in many currencies.

It's done this without any hype, in fact it has done it in the face of widespread indifference, but it can't have done it without widespread/or big money support either?

[ATM]

Main difference now is we have -

Inflation [or rising prices] rampant
Dollar weakness - due to assumptions rising cycle is over or coming to an end
Dollar weakness - due to rumblings about losing reserve status
Central Bank buying is highest for a long long time
War
Uncertainty

[Scootersp]

Yes and so arguably huge drivers for Gold (or at the very least huge support for it not going down a whole lot?), and it has done it before in a financial crisis, so has 'history' and yet it seems it's still unpopular and very few peoples go to asset?

I have a friend who is essentially all in and then I have on here where the consensus is you are a old paranoid prepper for holding a 1oz Brit.

Big moves in any asset need a sentiment shift and I presume the recent rise/hold has been big money somewhere shifting some money it's way, is the caution/fear trade gradually creeping in?

Edited by Scootersp on Wednesday 12th April 13:37