"Safe" investment, maybe gold?
Discussion
Derek Chevalier said:
How do you determine those upper and lower bounds?
Ask an honest participant what they wanted to pay and what they were willing to pay?Or imagine a system on eBay where you can place a bid early on. Lower bound.
What those sane participants might do in the final sniping session. Upper bound.
That kinda data is probably mineable right now for used auction items.
No method is perfect.
I’d imagine Amazon have this kinda thing down to near perfection by just watching what buyers are doing.
A44RON said:
Derek Chevalier said:
TobyTR said:
egomeister said:
Derek Chevalier said:
TobyTR said:
and yet prices are relatively low - especially for silver hovering around $14.50 per oz.
How do you determine whether prices are high or low when it doesn't pay an income stream such as a dividend or coupon?b
hstewie said:
"but specific allocations to things like long term treasuries (+9%), intermediate treasuries (+4%), T-bills (+.6%), and gold (-7.7%) helped offset the losses and even respond positively in the crisis. That’s true diversification at work."hstewie said:Goes back to understanding what each constituent in the portfolio is for. To have anything positive during this period when all else is falling is a big win.
Derek Chevalier said:
A44RON said:
Derek Chevalier said:
TobyTR said:
egomeister said:
Derek Chevalier said:
TobyTR said:
and yet prices are relatively low - especially for silver hovering around $14.50 per oz.
How do you determine whether prices are high or low when it doesn't pay an income stream such as a dividend or coupon?However, prices of Gold & Silver aren't matching up with supply and demand, so... where I am here in New Zealand it's quite hard to get physically
Edited by A44RON on Monday 30th March 00:15
Derek Chevalier said:
In the absence of a cashflow from the commodities in question I'm still not clear how the market determines what these might be.
Does it matter?Just like anything it depends what people are willing to pay.
No one needs much except shelter and food.
The rest is based on discretion.
A44RON said:
I started buying Silver back in Jan and I've just got my stack up to 135oz, but greed is getting the better of me and I want more... 
I will keep purchasing as long as it's under US$17 per oz and the reputable coins and bars are available
What's your plan with silver ?I will keep purchasing as long as it's under US$17 per oz and the reputable coins and bars are available
the prices seem to of been pretty static since mid 2013 .
Derek Chevalier said:
A44RON said:
Derek Chevalier said:
TobyTR said:
egomeister said:
Derek Chevalier said:
TobyTR said:
and yet prices are relatively low - especially for silver hovering around $14.50 per oz.
How do you determine whether prices are high or low when it doesn't pay an income stream such as a dividend or coupon?
egor110 said:
A44RON said:
I started buying Silver back in Jan and I've just got my stack up to 135oz, but greed is getting the better of me and I want more...
I will keep purchasing as long as it's under US$17 per oz and the reputable coins and bars are available
What's your plan with silver ?I will keep purchasing as long as it's under US$17 per oz and the reputable coins and bars are available
the prices seem to of been pretty static since mid 2013 .
If you look back in history during times of big recessions and inflation (last 100 years), Gold & Silver values go up after central governments change policies. The recessions themselves don't cause the increase, it's the aftermath. And what Gold does, Silver follows soon after.
In 1979-1980, Silver rocketed from US$6.00 per oz to over US$49.00 per oz. That's more than an 800% increase. Some analysts are saying it could increase by over 1,200%
The Gold-to-Silver ratio is also historically at its highest. It's been tracking this month at around 1oz Gold to 115oz Silver, even as high as 1 : 125.... historically, the average Gold-to-Silver ratio has been 1 : 30
I think there are large gains to be made from Gold and Silver
There are other benefits too - they're physical, they're a safe hedge against inflation/hyper-inflation and they can be traded.
Edited by A44RON on Thursday 30th April 01:26
A44RON said:
egor110 said:
A44RON said:
I started buying Silver back in Jan and I've just got my stack up to 135oz, but greed is getting the better of me and I want more...
I will keep purchasing as long as it's under US$17 per oz and the reputable coins and bars are available
What's your plan with silver ?I will keep purchasing as long as it's under US$17 per oz and the reputable coins and bars are available
the prices seem to of been pretty static since mid 2013 .
If you look back in history during times of big recessions and inflation (last 100 years), Gold & Silver values go up after central governments change policies. The recessions themselves don't cause the increase, it's the aftermath. And what Gold does, Silver follows soon after.
In 1979-1980, Silver rocketed from US$6.00 per oz to over US$49.00 per oz. That's more than an 800% increase. Some analysts are saying it could increase by over 1,200%
The Gold-to-Silver ratio is also historically at its highest. It's been tracking this month at around 1oz Gold to 115oz Silver, even as high as 1 : 125.... historically, the average Gold-to-Silver ratio has been 1 : 30
I think there are large gains to be made from Gold and Silver
There are other benefits too - they're physical, they're a safe hedge against inflation/hyper-inflation and they can be traded.
Edited by A44RON on Thursday 30th April 01:26
Yesterday it would of cost me 21 gbp for a silver britania coin, if i sold it back i'd get 12.31 !
egor110 said:
Looking at the 07-09 banking crisis, silver was between 7.245-9.178 per oz it then rose up to around 20 by march 2011 but from 2013 until now it's hovered around 12-13 per oz .
Yesterday it would of cost me 21 gbp for a silver britania coin, if i sold it back i'd get 12.31 !
Wow, that's a big mark-up. I'm still able to get coins and bars at only 10% above spot price. Yesterday it would of cost me 21 gbp for a silver britania coin, if i sold it back i'd get 12.31 !
With precious metals you have to think more long-term. It's something you have to get in on early when the price is low (which Silver certainly is right now) and sell when it spikes high (obvs), because it will at some point.
This recession (and possibly depression) is already 2008-2009 GFC on steroids and what's also different this time around is the sheer scale of money that's been printed globally
I don't think there's anything wrong with splitting 50% into precious metals and leaving 50% cash in the bank
I know some that have done 50% precious metals, 30% crypto currencies, 20% cash
One thing is for sure, cash in bank is doing nothing. All it's good for now is purchasing food and products.
I know some that have done 50% precious metals, 30% crypto currencies, 20% cash
One thing is for sure, cash in bank is doing nothing. All it's good for now is purchasing food and products.
A44RON said:
I don't think there's anything wrong with splitting 50% into precious metals and leaving 50% cash in the bank
I know some that have done 50% precious metals, 30% crypto currencies, 20% cash
One thing is for sure, cash in bank is doing nothing. All it's good for now is purchasing food and products.
How come you've totally avoided adding a mix of shares and bonds though ?I know some that have done 50% precious metals, 30% crypto currencies, 20% cash
One thing is for sure, cash in bank is doing nothing. All it's good for now is purchasing food and products.
egor110 said:
Looking at the 07-09 banking crisis, silver was between 7.245-9.178 per oz it then rose up to around 20 by march 2011 but from 2013 until now it's hovered around 12-13 per oz .
Yesterday it would of cost me 21 gbp for a silver britania coin, if i sold it back i'd get 12.31 !
True, but buying an ounce of silver retail now VAT free for storage can be done for £13.Yesterday it would of cost me 21 gbp for a silver britania coin, if i sold it back i'd get 12.31 !
Novexx said:
I've got a bit of hard earned currently sitting in bank accounts & now find myself for the 2nd time in the last decade or so being mildly concerned about the safety of it. I had been looking at some traditional methods of investment recently, but now I'm not so sure.
So lets say that COVID-19 doesn't go away as planned, things get properly tough & banks or GBP start to fail - are any of the traditional investment methods safe from this?
Gold has always had a certain appeal as it's tangible, can be in my own possession & will always be worth something. But looking at some other threads it seems that the UK market & spread are poor, it also looks like it's perceived as a preppers only thing & may ultimately result in a loss.
Are there any real forms of bullet proof investments that are reasonably accessible - or am I just being a doomsday prepper?
Thanks.
...5 pages of discussion about gold, which is not an investment.So lets say that COVID-19 doesn't go away as planned, things get properly tough & banks or GBP start to fail - are any of the traditional investment methods safe from this?
Gold has always had a certain appeal as it's tangible, can be in my own possession & will always be worth something. But looking at some other threads it seems that the UK market & spread are poor, it also looks like it's perceived as a preppers only thing & may ultimately result in a loss.
Are there any real forms of bullet proof investments that are reasonably accessible - or am I just being a doomsday prepper?
Thanks.
OP, did you consider Premium Bonds?
Also, not an investment, but addresses some of the OP's concerns much more closely than commodities.
Behemoth said:
I wouldn't call gold liquid at the moment. Far from it. Refineries are widely shut, retail is pretty much sold out and physical settlement is proving so difficult that extraordinary measures are in place for shipping the stuff.
There are many stages to this crisis event and what gold or any other asset does largely depends on what stage we are in the process and what will now unfold. There's a rush to the dollar initially as a safe haven. Gold is being dumped along with everything else to pay for margin calls, cash crises, bankruptcies, what have you.
The question is what happens if things continue unwinding to a major deleveraging event, past recession and into a depression. What plays will central banks make to try and prevent this happening. What is the medium to long term effect of the unprecedented monetary inflation that they've already instigated. Thinking about a sensible hedge is perfectly reasonable under the circumstances. Sitting only in cash & stocks doesn't provide a hedge.
Bonds / Gilts is your hedge.There are many stages to this crisis event and what gold or any other asset does largely depends on what stage we are in the process and what will now unfold. There's a rush to the dollar initially as a safe haven. Gold is being dumped along with everything else to pay for margin calls, cash crises, bankruptcies, what have you.
The question is what happens if things continue unwinding to a major deleveraging event, past recession and into a depression. What plays will central banks make to try and prevent this happening. What is the medium to long term effect of the unprecedented monetary inflation that they've already instigated. Thinking about a sensible hedge is perfectly reasonable under the circumstances. Sitting only in cash & stocks doesn't provide a hedge.
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