What’s your big gamble?

[500 Miles]

500 Miles said:

Hobo said:

The below is what I have been tracking. In essence it shows the companies, their prices on 16th March (when I started buying), their price on 18th February (roughly one month price), their 52w trading high, and also what they would need to recover (in %) to get back to their price of 18th February, and what that would result on the basis of a £500 investment.

Example, Cineworld (CINE) is currently 39.61, was 176.30 on 18th February, so needs to recover 345.09% to get back to this figure, which would result in a £500.00 investment being £2,225.45. Obviously this is at the extreme of the chart, but still good returns to be had.

Those in 'dark green' are what I hold, and those in yellow what I intend to add next (later this week).

Good sheet - although I can’t make out all the details, even clicking through to thumbsnap. Anyone else having problems? I’m on an iPad.

Got it good enough!

[500 Miles]

dingg said:

I think I won lol

Just need aa. to join in now.

Congratulations I bought into BWNG again first thing, looking good although I’m sure there will be some bumps. Shame AA hasn’t moved too much.

[500 Miles]

oldaudi said:

Centrica and IAG for me. Although I’ve just sold most of IAG at 247p hoping for a re entry later today. Made a few quid buying in tranches from low 200p

Edited by oldaudi on Tuesday 7th April 08:17

Yeah, I’ve gone into IAG a couple of times and showing about 20% overall - they appear to have a strong balance sheet, even though their service has gone down over the last few years.

I’m not brave enough to buy into Centrica, although you have to think that the business must be turned around at some point - especially with so many of the challengers going to the wall.

[500 Miles]

Simpo Two said:

whatleytom said:

I've taken a position on Aston Martin this week

Holy moly, will they give you a free one if it goes the way of the pear?

It already has gone the way of the pear - they should be sending me a couple of AM’s.. I’ve lost less on depreciation on my DB11 than I’ve lost on the shares I think.. actually, I don’t want to think about either of those things

[500 Miles]

Hobo said:

Meeten-5dulx said:

Maybe, but CMCX has served me well.
Not the platform, never used that, but the shares.....

Maybe Wells Fargo, Citi Group or even JP Morgan would be a wiser choice ?

Has anyone thoughts on Boeing (BAE) ? They need to recover 159% to get back to their price of 18th March !!! I appreciate their market has somewhat changed, but being one of the biggest companies in the world surely they are going to weather this storm ?

My first thought was that it was crazy to even contemplate Boeing with most of the worlds planes being grounded, however... I wonder if The Covid shutdown actually slows down Airbus whilst allowing Boeing to move forward with resolving their Max issue.. Also, selling airplanes isn’t like selling cars - lead time is much longer to build, customise and deliver. I personally don’t think air travel will be much reduced from 2021 onwards - people will still want to travel. Who isn’t dying (perhaps wrong word) to go on holiday now? Excuse the ramblings, tired..

[500 Miles]

Simpo Two said:

500 Miles said:

It already has gone the way of the pear - they should be sending me a couple of AM’s.. I’ve lost less on depreciation on my DB11 than I’ve lost on the shares I think.. actually, I don’t want to think about either of those things

It's an interesting angle. 'I will invest in your company but only if you put up a DB11 as co-lateral...'

Maybe a DBS would be better..

[500 Miles]

cavey76 said:

rsbmw said:

cavey76 said:

rsbmw said:

Skyedriver said:

This^^
assuming £12/trade in and ut and 0.5% stamp they will all have to gain at least 7% to make anything (calc done in my head )

You're both correct but this isn't normal investing for me. I'm not expecting to lose any money here (though I'm happy to risk it), but the whole point is a bit of a punt that they gain massively, and I've diversified to reduce risk on any individual company.

Right now, including fees in both directions, I'm up about £700 if I were to sell now - not bad for <48 hours. I will however be leaving them in play for the forseeable.

I'm a gambler likewise and if this acts as a catalyst to you building longer term wealth then its a good thing. Reality is you probably wont be looking at 3,4,5,6 x baggers here.

I was a stupid young grad once witha bit of spare wedge and was buying £2-300 of shares during the dot.com boom...burnt on fees and when it all went t*ts up.

Enjoy and good luck!

Agreed, if none go bump and they all return to somewhere near historic normal levels for them I'd be looking at 2-3x my money back. Cineworld is probably the only one with real all or nothing potential. As long as I don't lose too much then I will class it as entertainment. I am expecting this group of companies will make a decent return within 12 months though.

Good Luck. If you do that, cash out and count your blessings!

I have a great "one that got away story". RingCentral, I may have mentioned them here before. Cloud communications, born in the cloud, never been anything but cloud so every user they sign hitches up to a $12-20/month commitment. I work in that industry and compete with them. I was seeing them everywhere about 4 years ago. Went ball deep in my SIPP to the tune of $70K at ~$14/share. Within a year an a half they hit $50 and hence my SIPP investment has multiplied x3.5. But then i sold.

RingCentral (RNG) today......drum roll.....$206!

Yes...i do cry myself to sleep at night!

There should me a mechanism where you can never see the share price of a company you’ve sold out of...

[500 Miles]

bhstewie said:

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Avoid investing in shares directly and perhaps consider funds or trusts that match your tolerance for risk.

Investments do move up and down but there's a world of difference in both directions between investing directly in a few random companies v a fund such as Vanguard LifeStrategy 20 or 40.

Despite starting this thread, I agree that buying individual shares can often work out very badly.

I am seeing this as a gamble - just like when I go to the races and choose my horse based upon the potential returns. Why would anyone choose a horse at 2/1 if there is one at 18/1...? Oh yeah, the 18/1 probably has Covid 19!

If anyone looked at the shares I’ve backed and also the number I’ve bought, they would think I’m mad - I blame it on isolation!

I’ve sensibly put some money with Julian and Intelligent Money recently and that’s in positive territory - if some of my individual gambles work out then I’ll eventually sell them and put more into IM where they can be managed professionally, by someone who knows what they are doing!

[500 Miles]

dingg said:

500 miles
I like the cut of your jib

Apart from your investment in AM.

Your affliction swayed you....

Aston offered customers the opportunity to buy shares at the IPO off market, I can’t remember the full details but don’t think there was much, if any, discount. I am sooooo happy that I had the foresight (ok, I was really disorganised and missed the cut off date to apply) not to take up the offer - I bought in when they couldn’t go any lower.... oh..

[500 Miles]

Hope so buddy.

My big gamble is Capita, closely followed by Barrett’s then AA, IAG, MNG, Gym, Cine, Idp and then about 10 others.

Some will fail, some will lose, some will grow and hopefully some will rocket. Would be nice if it was Capita and Barrett that rocket! Murphy law dictates it will be the smaller holdings that do well!

[500 Miles]

petemurphy said:

500 Miles said:

Hope so buddy.

My big gamble is Capita, closely followed by Barrett’s then AA, IAG, MNG, Gym, Cine, Idp and then about 10 others.

Some will fail, some will lose, some will grow and hopefully some will rocket. Would be nice if it was Capita and Barrett that rocket! Murphy law dictates it will be the smaller holdings that do well!

capita looks v cheap - whats the thinking there on why not?

also whats everyones thoughts re the aa - why such a good buy

My concerns about Capita are surrounding their ability to execute, whilst it is one company they appear to operate as lots of different factions with each contract competing against each other. The quality of some of their leaders is questionable to say the least and it’s a very political environment, focus needs to be more on one capita and doing the right thing for the client.

They have a new(ish) CEO who is changing the organisation however latest update demonstrated how hard it was to transform this beast. If they can simplify the business, work as a cohesive unit and bring some quality leaders onboard then they could ‘rocket’ - this is hard but not impossible. Definitely a gamble but one I’ve taken.

The AA has high levels of debt and the market is concern about their ability to reduce it, latest results were quite positive however. Bonus is that their current chairman has punched anyone recently ...

[500 Miles]

fourstardan said:

Where are you all going to invest?

I'm looking at nutmeg at the moment as they have good fees.

I'd like a platform that is informative and head Hargreaves is a bit legacy now?

I’ve been using HL, haven’t checked out any of its competitors recently. It’s performance has been mixed recently, I’m guessing they are seeing a much larger number of trades due to current volatility - I bought a few shares this morning in them as I think they should see a significant uptick in their fees.

[500 Miles]

fourstardan said:

The saudis would only want in for indirect reasons with Carnival.

Cineworld is a weird one, Can you see yourself sitting next to anyone in close proximity in the next 6 months? I know I can't.

Re: Cineworld.

In 6 months time, I think people will be crushed into Tubes, Trains, bus’s etc just the same as they were before covid.

It might be like 7/7 where we all went back underground but eyed anyone with suspicion who had a rucksack.. this time it will be coughs we’ll be moving away from.

Also, Topgun 2 and Bond will be out in a few months (probably) - that’s got to be worth taking a risk for

[500 Miles]

BlackG7R said:

I had a little punt on a company called Novacyt a couple of months ago. (Does testing for things like Coronavirus amongst other things) It's more than doubled since then.

Which has covered my loses on Metro Bank :-)

Nice work! I dream of the day when I cover my Metro Bank losses

[500 Miles]

petemurphy said:

500 Miles said:

My concerns about Capita are surrounding their ability to execute, whilst it is one company they appear to operate as lots of different factions with each contract competing against each other. The quality of some of their leaders is questionable to say the least and it’s a very political environment, focus needs to be more on one capita and doing the right thing for the client.

They have a new(ish) CEO who is changing the organisation however latest update demonstrated how hard it was to transform this beast. If they can simplify the business, work as a cohesive unit and bring some quality leaders onboard then they could ‘rocket’ - this is hard but not impossible. Definitely a gamble but one I’ve taken.

The AA has high levels of debt and the market is concern about their ability to reduce it, latest results were quite positive however. Bonus is that their current chairman has punched anyone recently ...

I agree they seem a bloated crap company but they were like that before this at a much higher value and cant see gov contracts being cancelled so in theory they should be reasonably ok?

aa worries me as car usage will continue to decline imho although I suppose they have a lot of members locked in.

True - I think there is potentially a great upside, just need to remember that the decrease in sp wasn’t just caused by Covid but also Jon Lewis stating that recovery was going to be harder than expected - he did later say that the sell off was overdone.

Capita is my biggest gamble - if it goes bust I’m never trading shares again... I may have said that during the dotcom era.. if it goes back to previous levels then I’m going to treat myself to something fast..

[500 Miles]

Gandahar said:

bobmedley said:

15,000 Aston Martin shares

Got 10,000 at 30p each in the rights issue, a total sh!t or bust punt

Don't want to call you out old chap but can you back that up?


The reason I ask for a start, as a long term Aston lurker is that you say

15,000 Aston Martin shares

then say

Got 10,000 at 30p each


That's a 50% bullst radar woop woop woop going already.

15k or 10k ?


As Dirty Harry once said,

"In all this excitement, I kinda lot count"

He said he had 15,000 shares and then took 10,000 at the rights issue at 30p. From memory it’s a 4 to 1, although you can choose to only take up part of your rights. He may have also sold some shares since taking up the rights.

You may need to get your radar serviced

[500 Miles]

Meeten-5dulx said:

500 Miles said:

Likewise - hoping for a decent return from them.

Got my first double bagger of 'the season'.
My friend went into NEX at 100 and they rapidly climbed to 200 and now circa 230, but I declined to join his positive sentiment at placement time.
In return I told him about my choice in CINE, and he declined, so I'm calling it even.

I am thinking this he invested a larger chuck than I did .....

AA
IBSTOCK
MELROSE

other purchases in recent times - some not appropriate to this thread as they are longer term holds.

still not offset the lump i put into Fevertree at the start of the year, the position in HSBC that I have held for some time and the absolute belter that is Empryean . I'm not going to mention Burple P ricks ....

Cine will have to become a multi multi bagger to offset the above, so happy to make hay whilst the sun is shining!

Congratulations on the double bagger, I’m way behind you.

Closest I have is a circa 50% rise in WH Smith, Cine and Ted. Although 2 of my biggest bets are up over 20% which is good to see - Good to end the week on a high, even if next week may be a very different story.

I bought into Melrose earlier after seeing your list.

[500 Miles]

jaybarts said:

petemurphy said:

jaybarts said:

Sold AA at +15%

Now bought Greggs at 1763 so let’s see how they do.

thats as high as pre corona whats the thinking?

I like sausage rolls!

Just felt that there was room for at least a 5% increase as the previous close was at 1849, pre corona was around 2200.

You can’t beat their steak bakes, however, unless they’re going to start giving them away to shareholders I’ll probably give this one miss. Limited percentage upside to get back to previous highs, they will obviously survive and mid term they will get back to previous trading levels however they have got to have saturated the UK marketplace now - they are talking about expansion abroad however will the sausage roll travel well?

I do wish I’d bought into them a couple of years ago as they have obviously managed a very successful transformation.

[500 Miles]

Ed28 said:

The hardest part of the gamble, when to be happy with what you’re seeing.

I’ve been on NCYT for a few months and head says jump ship and be happy.

Have others said ‘I’ll be happy at X’ or just letting things run for medium term and see how they pan out?

Great effort buddy! I think if I’d had the foresight to invest in NCYT 3 months ago I would be selling out around now! Congratulations - you’ve won this thread... so far

[500 Miles]

petemurphy said:

sold it so it will prob rocket. still thats 300 quid profit in 2 days thats chaps

Not a bad result for a couple of days! I’m holding onto mine for a while, looks like some pretty big buys going on.