What’s your big gamble?
Discussion
Carnival might survive, but only by issuing huge amounts of debt at a high interest rate. I understand their cash burn is $1bn per month whilst shut down, they only have about $0.5bn in the bank and have issued $4-6bn in debt instruments at about 12%. If they don't get back to business in a few months it doesn't look good. I don't think the other cruise operators are much better.
Benbay001 said:
500 Miles said:
This looks like a good shout to me - hadn’t heard of them before although had heard of their skinny tan product (from Dragons Den, not from personal use..). Quite a few director buys in the last few weeks, as well as an RB director buying in apparently - not sure if this is confirmed or not.
I think I’m going to buy in, thanks for the info Benbay
No warranty given or implied... I think I’m going to buy in, thanks for the info Benbay
I’ve chased the share price up for you Benbay
Bought about 1% of their shares. 500 Miles said:
Benbay001 said:
500 Miles said:
This looks like a good shout to me - hadn’t heard of them before although had heard of their skinny tan product (from Dragons Den, not from personal use..). Quite a few director buys in the last few weeks, as well as an RB director buying in apparently - not sure if this is confirmed or not.
I think I’m going to buy in, thanks for the info Benbay
No warranty given or implied... I think I’m going to buy in, thanks for the info Benbay
I’ve chased the share price up for you Benbay
Bought about 1% of their shares. rsbmw said:
Carnival might survive, but only by issuing huge amounts of debt at a high interest rate. I understand their cash burn is $1bn per month whilst shut down, they only have about $0.5bn in the bank and have issued $4-6bn in debt instruments at about 12%. If they don't get back to business in a few months it doesn't look good. I don't think the other cruise operators are much better.
The next big news for Carnival must be agreeing significant delays to new ship orders. They have a staggering number in-build and ordered through to 2025 which they will not be able to fully utilise in that period. Mid-long term cruising will return because it is aspirational to millions who will quickly forget the current issues. But peak 2020 is gone and 2021-2023 will be very limited due to consumer sentiment, economic impact and ongoing travel restrictions including nobody really wanting 1000 foreigners turning up in their cities (to potentially clog their hospitals) every other day until this is completely contained.
They've been caught out going very hard for growth in a most unfortunate way.
Benbay001 said:
500 Miles said:
I’ve chased the share price up for you Benbay
Bought about 1% of their shares. Didnt realise the move was because of you
CaptainSlow said:
Benbay001 said:
500 Miles said:
I’ve chased the share price up for you Benbay
Bought about 1% of their shares. Didnt realise the move was because of you
I’ll probably stay in it for the long haul, depending how things progress of course. This looks like a more sensible bet than others, despite its small market cap. 500 Miles said:
Yes, might build up a larger stake but will wait and see how the market plays out over the next few days.
Have also bought into Barclays and Ted Baker - thanks to this who had those on their lists.
You bought £60k worth of BWNG? Have also bought into Barclays and Ted Baker - thanks to this who had those on their lists.
The BWNG that was averaging 120 through December and is now at 11?
So if it ever gets back to 120 you've made £500k?
ashleyman said:
April 14th is when the travel guidance is due to be reviewed. Do we think they're going to continue this travel ban and therefore IAG will start dropping again? Was about to buy but noticed it had gone up a ton today.
The travel ban will almost definately be extended, if there isnt some major and unlikely new news.However i bought some IAG this afternoon at 218p, partially spurred on by 500 Miles's optimism.
ETA, ive just seen suggestions that the ban will begin to be lifted in Austria from Tuesday, so what i said above is probably wrong.
Edited by Benbay001 on Monday 6th April 16:35
SOS - was ticking along nicely pre correction, pulled their advertising budget to save cash and price dropped.
Would a more mature female customer than ASOS and BOO stand a better chance of retaining some disposable income when things get back to normal?
(Bought just for the comedy ticker symbol in current times regardless of justification)
Would a more mature female customer than ASOS and BOO stand a better chance of retaining some disposable income when things get back to normal?
(Bought just for the comedy ticker symbol in current times regardless of justification
)The below is what I have been tracking. In essence it shows the companies, their prices on 16th March (when I started buying), their price on 18th February (roughly one month price), their 52w trading high, and also what they would need to recover (in %) to get back to their price of 18th February, and what that would result on the basis of a £500 investment.
Example, Cineworld (CINE) is currently 39.61, was 176.30 on 18th February, so needs to recover 345.09% to get back to this figure, which would result in a £500.00 investment being £2,225.45. Obviously this is at the extreme of the chart, but still good returns to be had.
Those in 'dark green' are what I hold, and those in yellow what I intend to add next (later this week).
Example, Cineworld (CINE) is currently 39.61, was 176.30 on 18th February, so needs to recover 345.09% to get back to this figure, which would result in a £500.00 investment being £2,225.45. Obviously this is at the extreme of the chart, but still good returns to be had.
Those in 'dark green' are what I hold, and those in yellow what I intend to add next (later this week).
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