What’s your big gamble?
Discussion
Hitch said:
The next big news for Carnival must be agreeing significant delays to new ship orders. They have a staggering number in-build and ordered through to 2025 which they will not be able to fully utilise in that period.
Mid-long term cruising will return because it is aspirational to millions who will quickly forget the current issues. But peak 2020 is gone and 2021-2023 will be very limited due to consumer sentiment, economic impact and ongoing travel restrictions including nobody really wanting 1000 foreigners turning up in their cities (to potentially clog their hospitals) every other day until this is completely contained.
They've been caught out going very hard for growth in a most unfortunate way.
This is a good post, to which I would add that cruise ships, well before this pandemic, faced being turned away from more and more popular city ports, due to their largely parasitic clientele - think (more like 4000) passengers disembarking, stinking up the place (eg Venice, Dubrovnik), buying a small beer between two and then pissing off back to their boat, having added nothing but congestion to the local economy.Mid-long term cruising will return because it is aspirational to millions who will quickly forget the current issues. But peak 2020 is gone and 2021-2023 will be very limited due to consumer sentiment, economic impact and ongoing travel restrictions including nobody really wanting 1000 foreigners turning up in their cities (to potentially clog their hospitals) every other day until this is completely contained.
They've been caught out going very hard for growth in a most unfortunate way.
I also think that it will take longer than posited above for people to forget that cruise ships are merely floating Petri dishes, with a captive audience of the most vulnerable - will Doris and Maurice be prepared to roll the dice, or stick to a nice week in Margate (especially given that their pensions are shrinking faster than Maurice when he switches off his free PronHub and gets a mis-timed eyeful of Doris..)?
In short, cruise lines are finished.
Hobo said:
The below is what I have been tracking. In essence it shows the companies, their prices on 16th March (when I started buying), their price on 18th February (roughly one month price), their 52w trading high, and also what they would need to recover (in %) to get back to their price of 18th February, and what that would result on the basis of a £500 investment.
Example, Cineworld (CINE) is currently 39.61, was 176.30 on 18th February, so needs to recover 345.09% to get back to this figure, which would result in a £500.00 investment being £2,225.45. Obviously this is at the extreme of the chart, but still good returns to be had.
Those in 'dark green' are what I hold, and those in yellow what I intend to add next (later this week).
Havnt Cineworld announced they are going bust if nothing changes?Example, Cineworld (CINE) is currently 39.61, was 176.30 on 18th February, so needs to recover 345.09% to get back to this figure, which would result in a £500.00 investment being £2,225.45. Obviously this is at the extreme of the chart, but still good returns to be had.
Those in 'dark green' are what I hold, and those in yellow what I intend to add next (later this week).
Benbay001 said:
Havnt Cineworld announced they are going bust if nothing changes?
Hope not, I tucked a few away a coupe of weeks ago at 37. They had gone as high as 60 before falling back to current levels.
My thinking is that even in post C19, families will want to take kids out for treats and the cinema is a viable option. Also all the movies that were meant to be released will come out later, so there is a backlog of movies that are to hmshown and potential demand.
Considering they were so high pre C19, this price seems too cheap to ignore. Now, if they can sort out the international expansion plans....
Benbay001 said:
Hobo said:
The below is what I have been tracking. In essence it shows the companies, their prices on 16th March (when I started buying), their price on 18th February (roughly one month price), their 52w trading high, and also what they would need to recover (in %) to get back to their price of 18th February, and what that would result on the basis of a £500 investment.
Example, Cineworld (CINE) is currently 39.61, was 176.30 on 18th February, so needs to recover 345.09% to get back to this figure, which would result in a £500.00 investment being £2,225.45. Obviously this is at the extreme of the chart, but still good returns to be had.
Those in 'dark green' are what I hold, and those in yellow what I intend to add next (later this week).
Havnt Cineworld announced they are going bust if nothing changes?Example, Cineworld (CINE) is currently 39.61, was 176.30 on 18th February, so needs to recover 345.09% to get back to this figure, which would result in a £500.00 investment being £2,225.45. Obviously this is at the extreme of the chart, but still good returns to be had.
Those in 'dark green' are what I hold, and those in yellow what I intend to add next (later this week).
Hobo said:
The below is what I have been tracking. In essence it shows the companies, their prices on 16th March (when I started buying), their price on 18th February (roughly one month price), their 52w trading high, and also what they would need to recover (in %) to get back to their price of 18th February, and what that would result on the basis of a £500 investment.
Example, Cineworld (CINE) is currently 39.61, was 176.30 on 18th February, so needs to recover 345.09% to get back to this figure, which would result in a £500.00 investment being £2,225.45. Obviously this is at the extreme of the chart, but still good returns to be had.
Those in 'dark green' are what I hold, and those in yellow what I intend to add next (later this week).
Good sheet - although I can’t make out all the details, even clicking through to thumbsnap. Anyone else having problems? I’m on an iPad. Example, Cineworld (CINE) is currently 39.61, was 176.30 on 18th February, so needs to recover 345.09% to get back to this figure, which would result in a £500.00 investment being £2,225.45. Obviously this is at the extreme of the chart, but still good returns to be had.
Those in 'dark green' are what I hold, and those in yellow what I intend to add next (later this week).
Meeten-5dulx said:
Benbay001 said:
Havnt Cineworld announced they are going bust if nothing changes?
Hope not, I tucked a few away a coupe of weeks ago at 37. They had gone as high as 60 before falling back to current levels.
My thinking is that even in post C19, families will want to take kids out for treats and the cinema is a viable option. Also all the movies that were meant to be released will come out later, so there is a backlog of movies that are to hmshown and potential demand.
Considering they were so high pre C19, this price seems too cheap to ignore. Now, if they can sort out the international expansion plans....
500 Miles said:
Hobo said:
The below is what I have been tracking. In essence it shows the companies, their prices on 16th March (when I started buying), their price on 18th February (roughly one month price), their 52w trading high, and also what they would need to recover (in %) to get back to their price of 18th February, and what that would result on the basis of a £500 investment.
Example, Cineworld (CINE) is currently 39.61, was 176.30 on 18th February, so needs to recover 345.09% to get back to this figure, which would result in a £500.00 investment being £2,225.45. Obviously this is at the extreme of the chart, but still good returns to be had.
Those in 'dark green' are what I hold, and those in yellow what I intend to add next (later this week).
Good sheet - although I can’t make out all the details, even clicking through to thumbsnap. Anyone else having problems? I’m on an iPad. Example, Cineworld (CINE) is currently 39.61, was 176.30 on 18th February, so needs to recover 345.09% to get back to this figure, which would result in a £500.00 investment being £2,225.45. Obviously this is at the extreme of the chart, but still good returns to be had.
Those in 'dark green' are what I hold, and those in yellow what I intend to add next (later this week).
Shnozz said:
Which broker do you use to make it worthwhile investing a few hundred? I think I pay £11.95 a trade so even if I fancy a casino punt, taking into account of the fees it doesn't seem worthwhile.
X-o.co.uk only £5.95 a trade and no annual fees etc. Like i said oure speculative punts... some should come in, they did in 2008/2009. Multibaggers
500 Miles said:
500 Miles said:
Yes, might build up a larger stake but will wait and see how the market plays out over the next few days.
Have also bought into Barclays and Ted Baker - thanks to this who had those on their lists.
And Hurricane Energy... Have also bought into Barclays and Ted Baker - thanks to this who had those on their lists.
indestructible focus said:
Shnozz said:
Which broker do you use to make it worthwhile investing a few hundred? I think I pay £11.95 a trade so even if I fancy a casino punt, taking into account of the fees it doesn't seem worthwhile.
X-o.co.uk only £5.95 a trade and no annual fees etc. Like i said oure speculative punts... some should come in, they did in 2008/2009. Multibaggers
rsbmw said:
After realising that I didn't have any type of account that could buy NYSE stocks, and couldn't be arsed setting one up, I have ended up with £500 each of;
Rolls Royce
Taylor Wimpey
Easyjet
Aviva
ITV
Barclays
Lloyds
Cineworld
Did also have a buy order in for Barratt but it opened above my limit price. I am currently watching Barratt, Smiths Group, BP and Victoria plc to see where the remaining £1k goes, depending on movement.
What sort of dealing price are you paying when buying in lumps of £500. Seems you are going out of your way creating costs for yourself, especially with Barclays and Lloyds. My assumptions are it would have been better to buy lumps of £1000 at least.Rolls Royce
Taylor Wimpey
Easyjet
Aviva
ITV
Barclays
Lloyds
Cineworld
Did also have a buy order in for Barratt but it opened above my limit price. I am currently watching Barratt, Smiths Group, BP and Victoria plc to see where the remaining £1k goes, depending on movement.
cavey76 said:
rsbmw said:
After realising that I didn't have any type of account that could buy NYSE stocks, and couldn't be arsed setting one up, I have ended up with £500 each of;
Rolls Royce
Taylor Wimpey
Easyjet
Aviva
ITV
Barclays
Lloyds
Cineworld
Did also have a buy order in for Barratt but it opened above my limit price. I am currently watching Barratt, Smiths Group, BP and Victoria plc to see where the remaining £1k goes, depending on movement.
What sort of dealing price are you paying when buying in lumps of £500. Seems you are going out of your way creating costs for yourself, especially with Barclays and Lloyds. My assumptions are it would have been better to buy lumps of £1000 at least.Rolls Royce
Taylor Wimpey
Easyjet
Aviva
ITV
Barclays
Lloyds
Cineworld
Did also have a buy order in for Barratt but it opened above my limit price. I am currently watching Barratt, Smiths Group, BP and Victoria plc to see where the remaining £1k goes, depending on movement.
assuming £12/trade in and ut and 0.5% stamp they will all have to gain at least 7% to make anything (calc done in my head )
Was expecting a shock this morning on opening after BOJO news (get well soon!)
A fair few of these are pretty well known, so maybe not too drastic; although a couple already 30-45% in a couple of weeks so I’ll continue to make it up as I go along, seems okay so far.
Premier Oil
RR
RDSB
William Hill
IAG
NCYT
EasyJet
CODX
A fair few of these are pretty well known, so maybe not too drastic; although a couple already 30-45% in a couple of weeks so I’ll continue to make it up as I go along, seems okay so far.
Premier Oil
RR
RDSB
William Hill
IAG
NCYT
EasyJet
CODX
Skyedriver said:
This^^
assuming £12/trade in and ut and 0.5% stamp they will all have to gain at least 7% to make anything (calc done in my head )
You're both correct but this isn't normal investing for me. I'm not expecting to lose any money here (though I'm happy to risk it), but the whole point is a bit of a punt that they gain massively, and I've diversified to reduce risk on any individual company.assuming £12/trade in and ut and 0.5% stamp they will all have to gain at least 7% to make anything (calc done in my head )
Right now, including fees in both directions, I'm up about £700 if I were to sell now - not bad for <48 hours. I will however be leaving them in play for the forseeable.
Gassing Station | Finance | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff