What’s your big gamble?

[Adam B]

ALawson said:

petemurphy said:

do it before they demerge stemprinter if you do

That's what I am thinking, may drop VAST (model toy train mining, thank TCX for your thoughts on that update) and ARS and stick it into TILs.

I'm convinced - bought 12,000 TILS @ 150, trades entered around midday, only filled in aftermarket, its now my 4th biggest holding, wish I had bought early yesterday.

Need to sell something now though - probably Ibstock and TW, think industrial will bounce back a bit, construction grew 8% in May and will accelerate

[Adam B]

vulture1 said:

That assumes the share price sticks around that level until they are actually issued.

They may not been delivered but presumably they are issued, hence the price fall. If you believe EMH the price will settle at equilibrium and you will be no worse off.

It was 11 for 5, so by my simple maths

cost was
5 shares at 85p (yesterday, you may have bought cheaper)

cost now
5 shares at 85p
11 shares at 25p
av cost 43.75

current SP 43.90

general news on profits seems good and they used the cash for an acquisition which may prove successful

am I missing something?

[anonymous-user]

Well. From being £21k up in June I’m now evens with where I started in May. Only PREM was green for me and they’re c@@p and need to sell ASAP.

[Atanasoff]

Day started well and then sank. Screw you Easyjet and Menzies. 7% down overall now.

News coming out of US is really not good. 4% defaulted on mortgages in April - that is higher than the last time! Over 4 million have entered deferral programs.

With COVID spiking and states now going back into lockdown America seems to be catching a very large cold which will ripple here. Peloton, NIO in fact most of the companies that are in a massive bubble are well down today - 9% ish. Even Tesla is down.

Is the bubble bursting or are these just opportunities to top up?

[500 Miles]

Atanasoff said:

Day started well and then sank. Screw you Easyjet and Menzies. 7% down overall now.

News coming out of US is really not good. 4% defaulted on mortgages in April - that is higher than the last time! Over 4 million have entered deferral programs.

With COVID spiking and states now going back into lockdown America seems to be catching a very large cold which will ripple here. Peloton, NIO in fact most of the companies that are in a massive bubble are well down today - 9% ish. Even Tesla is down.

Is the bubble bursting or are these just opportunities to top up?

I’m probably the most boring person on this thread as I’m just staying in and hardly making any changes - Boo, IDP and RBG are the recent exceptions to this.

It’s been interesting reading the business press everyday - definitely went from wall to wall doom and gloom, to some positive noises being fed in and then back to doom...

Whilst this earning season won’t tell us anything we don’t know, it just reminds people how crap things are.

My current thoughts are (and I would love to be very wrong) are that the market has got a good few more percentage to drop before it starts heading north again.

However, even with this view I am staying invested. Overall I’m up from where I started, although not as up as I was by any stretch, and I’m confident that overall there is a massive upside to make. I’m still hoping to at least double the value of my investments.

If not, I have the right accent for begging

[TCX]

ALawson said:

petemurphy said:

do it before they demerge stemprinter if you do

That's what I am thinking, may drop VAST (model toy train mining, thank TCX for your thoughts on that update) and ARS and stick it into TILs.

The gear vast have brought in doesn't look note worthy to me,no sign of anything remotelyhigh out put,I put them in with likes of prem....jam tomorrow,can make money on trading them but returns getting less as people cotton on to the constant missed schedules,specially in Zim,no suprise there
Tils looks good,lol I'm in there,othercovid/pharma is orph,emh is worth a look if the European ev battery market heats up,good luck

Edited by TCX on Tuesday 14th July 18:03

[Skyedriver]

500 Miles said:

I’m probably the most boring person on this thread as I’m just staying in and hardly making any changes - Boo, IDP and RBG are the recent exceptions to this.

It’s been interesting reading the business press everyday - definitely went from wall to wall doom and gloom, to some positive noises being fed in and then back to doom...

Whilst this earning season won’t tell us anything we don’t know, it just reminds people how crap things are.

My current thoughts are (and I would love to be very wrong) are that the market has got a good few more percentage to drop before it starts heading north again.

However, even with this view I am staying invested. Overall I’m up from where I started, although not as up as I was by any stretch, and I’m confident that overall there is a massive upside to make. I’m still hoping to at least double the value of my investments.

If not, I have the right accent for begging

From being short term punts with my car buying fund my picks are now long term holds.
Unlike Mike S, I was up about 8% at one point but now down over 12% mostly due to BOO & AMGO. If everything returns to the price I paid I'll be around 10% up overall and if they return to precovid prices (not highest in a year) I'll be probably up 100% but that's Fantasy Island at the moment.
For now though I just watch and wait.

[ALawson]

TCX said:

The gear vast have brought in doesn't look note worthy to me,no sign of anything remotelyhigh out put,I put them in with likes of prem....jam tomorrow,can make money on trading them but returns getting less as people cotton on to the constant missed schedules,specially in Zim,no suprise there
Tils looks good,lol I'm in there,othercovid/pharma is orph,emh is worth a look if the European ev battery market heats up,good luck

Edited by TCX on Tuesday 14th July 18:03

Agreed not much tonnage going to be produced and transported out on those wagons. Track gauge looks something you would find at Wellington Country Park. Unless the yield is spectacular I don’t see where they will be making their money. I have a bit in ITM and EQT (less said the better, although they was some recovery today). Will have a look at emh, was also looking at CERES.

[Aiminghigh123]

MikeStroud said:

Well. From being £21k up in June I’m now evens with where I started in May. Only PREM was green for me and they’re c@@p and need to sell ASAP.

Just about the same here. Down overall 0.8% from 22% up.

BAB
CCL
CINE
IAG
RR

Are my biggest holdings really taking a hammering.

STOB is down 45% which is painful. Almost a right off. Worst than my WDI I hold percentage wise. Ha ha ha

[Adam B]

doing relatively OK compared to some - up 25% vs 57% up early June

I just need to remind myself that I knew it would be a bumpy climb not a smooth ascent, and my investment horizon is 2-3 years not 2-3 months.

MNZS, NRR and AMGO are the main losses at the moment down 15%, 13% and 46% respectively. AMGO is only now 2% of portfolio and smallest position, but the other two are my two largest.

still confident in all of them bar AMGO which is a coin toss

[vulture1]

Adam B said:

doing relatively OK compared to some - up 25% vs 57% up early June

I just need to remind myself that I knew it would be a bumpy climb not a smooth ascent, and my investment horizon is 2-3 years not 2-3 months.

MNZS, NRR and AMGO are the main losses at the moment down 15%, 13% and 46% respectively. AMGO is only now 2% of portfolio and smallest position, but the other two are my two largest.

still confident in all of them bar AMGO which is a coin toss

What have you got that is still up?

[Adam B]

vulture1 said:

What have you got that is still up?

BNP, SHI are the only two material ones, rest are roughly flat (BP, CS, HSBA, TW, IBST, IPF)

I made a lot on shares I sold out of when they hit 80% of pre-CV levels - SIE, PRU, RDSB, BP, BNP and CS (am back in on last 3).

Then lost a lot of it in the mid-June pull back

Edited by Adam B on Tuesday 14th July 19:32

[vulture1]

Out of interest what date do our issued shares hit our t212 accounts?

[Aiminghigh123]

Adam B said:

vulture1 said:

What have you got that is still up?

BNP, SHI are the only two material ones, rest are roughly flat (BP, CS, HSBA, TW, IBST, IPF)

I made a lot on shares I sold out of when they hit 80% of pre-CV levels - SIE, PRU, RDSB, BP, BNP and CS (am back in on last 3)

That’s good going. I didn’t start until end of April with a bit just 10% of the cash I had. Mid May invested the rest, feel I missed out on some big gains but never mind. Sold out some a bit early and jumped back in again a bit early on some. Holding 25% cash now.
I’m sure everyone feels they could do better. As others have said 1-2 years/ back to pre Covid i will be doubling my money.

[Skyedriver]

Entered the Telegraph Fantasy Fund comp last night, I'm 2818 of 12011 (Down 0.32%)
Wish I was as good in real life

[petemurphy]

any thoughts on tomorrow - dow seems well up

[journeymanpro]

petemurphy said:

any thoughts on tomorrow - dow seems well up

despite what seems like daily dire news from the us the dow always seems to out perform the ftse

[500 Miles]

petemurphy said:

any thoughts on tomorrow - dow seems well up

I’m surprised the DOW is doing so well.. got to be good news for us..

I think tomorrow will be a much better day - just not sure it will be a good day!

[anonymous-user]

Adam B said:

I just need to remind myself that I knew it would be a bumpy climb not a smooth ascent, and my investment horizon is 2-3 years not 2-3 months.

I also started with the aim of leaving them for two years to double. The peak we had in late may and subsequent crash now has made me look much more short term which was never my plan. Anything not giving me a quick return goes to be replaced with the next hot thing. I wish we’d never had that peek and fall.

I read a bb post by someone in late may saying he was selling everything as the market Had gone mad and was about to crash. Everyone else optimistically poo pooed him. I wish I could find and follow that Insightful person now he called it right.

[Meeten-5dulx]

MikeStroud said:

Adam B said:

I just need to remind myself that I knew it would be a bumpy climb not a smooth ascent, and my investment horizon is 2-3 years not 2-3 months.

I also started with the aim of leaving them for two years to double. The peak we had in late may and subsequent crash now has made me look much more short term which was never my plan. Anything not giving me a quick return goes to be replaced with the next hot thing. I wish we’d never had that peek and fall.

I read a bb post by someone in late may saying he was selling everything as the market Had gone mad and was about to crash. Everyone else optimistically poo pooed him. I wish I could find and follow that Insightful person now he called it right.

I didn't read that, but have sold out of 50 holdings and move to cash.
Unfortunately, the main sells were in RB (look at the move in a month) and FEV (look at the move in the last month). Had I ekpt hold, I would have been apprx £8k up on where I am!!
Still, I did sell out some others that have fallen.
Still holding on to AA, with the magical 30p seemingly as likely as a golden unicorn coming out of Ethiopia.
and a heap of other AIM stocks were I got sucked into wild dreams of what I am going to do with my new found riches...

Keep on meaning to find quality stocks to hold on to for a longer duration, but it seems they are thin on the ground.
A few more bad news stories and I hope to find them.

Perhaps the IM recovery fund might be a good idea....