What’s your big gamble? (Volume 2)
Discussion
petemurphy said:
thanks all - so if for example there was a bid announced on tuesday, would you be unable to sell the second they accept the bid ( if they do )? if once the bid is accepted approx how long would it take to get the money - ie would your capital be tied up for a few weeks etc whilst they do all the legal bits. dont want the capital to be unavailable for a while at the mo. thanks
You can sell whenever pretty much - if they announced a bid on Tuesday then there will be lots of due diligence and negotiations going on, it would then need to be put to a vote (you would get asked to vote). Could take months between a bid and acceptance and completion. On Rock Rose, the bid was announced a couple of months ago (from memory) and there shares are still listed - if I hadn’t sold when it was announced I could have sold on Friday.
If you do hold up until the acquisition is complete, there may be a delay between completion and settlement (you getting your cash) - I’ve done this before and (again from memory so could be wrong) there was a delay of a few days.
petemurphy said:
if they are taken over do we know of any other companies that look vulnerable to a takeover? dare i say babcock! any others?
hmmm:
Graham Simpson, of Quest, which specialises in identifying buy-out opportunities of listed companies, said that house builders such as Redrow and Bellway were attractive targets. Dixons Carphone and Pets at Home, which have largely survived the onslaught from the likes of Amazon despite carnage on the high street, will also be popular, he added.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/08/08/aa...
With SP’s down due to Covid and gbp exchange rate weak, it’s probably easier to list companies that don’t have takeover potential. hmmm:
Graham Simpson, of Quest, which specialises in identifying buy-out opportunities of listed companies, said that house builders such as Redrow and Bellway were attractive targets. Dixons Carphone and Pets at Home, which have largely survived the onslaught from the likes of Amazon despite carnage on the high street, will also be popular, he added.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/08/08/aa...
Would think Babcock (they don’t have a golden share but would probably need to be bought by a UK based company due to defence)... RR could be attractive to BAE.. IDP could be attractive to RB... Capita (although integration challenges would put most off I think).. SHI..
RBG - cheap way to buy 76 bars and two decent brands ...
Ted Baker, Super Dry, Mulberry and N Brown could be cheaply acquired by either PE or Boo\ASOS\Ashley - would be surprised if they hadn’t looked.
Money is cheap just now and shares are depressed - it’s a good time to buy..
petemurphy said:
thanks sounds like selling may be best. will see what happens!
On AA, I’m waiting until the suitors have played their hands - then see if the sp heads close to the offer price. If it does then I’ll sell before it completes and take advantage (hopefully) of another recovery share. No point waiting if the difference is only a couple of percent. Feels like we’re a few weeks away from that - they could of course all walk away next week and the sp drops down again...
petemurphy said:
This may have been covered before but re SKIN i am loving the bullish tweets at the mo and have upped my stake but still dont know if I should get into MWG?
what are peoples thoughts? might as well stick it all in skin or is there a reason to have both etc?
Thanks
I’ve got both - although have 4.5 times as much (by value) SKIN than MWG. I bought them roughly at the same time and SKIN has increased by 29% whilst MWG has increased by 5.7%. what are peoples thoughts? might as well stick it all in skin or is there a reason to have both etc?
Thanks
Also have AVACTA (half of my MWG holding) and it’s up by 7% - AVACTA have an agreement with SKIN and MWG.
No idea what the right answer is - SKIN seems to be the one that has the most potential, although it’s not 100% obvious..
petemurphy said:
thanks - suppose you could say that mwg has more room to grow although skin seems to be the main man's baby. if they can nail the real time detection I really think this has legs. hopefully they wont nail it until i've sold AA so i can reinvest 
I’m edging towards putting my AA proceeds into RBG... will need to review their accounts and ar before that I think.. was looking at RBG again last night and the leadership have previously bought in at higher levels, as well as investing during the rights issue - not huge levels but decent amounts.
Benbay001 said:
Volume 2? Where did the time go?
Did i miss anything interesting recently?
We all became billionaires on the back of AA... Adam’s wheelbarrow is now so big it’s one of the only things you can see from outerspace.... Babcock didn’t go down one day.... we ‘lost’ our ceo at idp Did i miss anything interesting recently?
Apart from that, it’s been quiet.
911pleb said:
Though not invested, I expect AML to have a good week. New boss starts and DBX reveiws come out. Good luck to all of you still in.
GGP should do something Friday morning at open following the results from partner company Newcrest on Thursday night. Fingers crossed its up and a lot! (It may just be a tickle until the proper GGP estimate is released later in the year though.)
Aa can f
k right off.I sold at 23p ages ago having got bored... Im terrible at this game.
I think you’re right on AML - Will be interesting to hear how healthy the orders are for the DBX, a 12 month waiting list for a £200k 4x4 must have a positive impact on the shareprice.GGP should do something Friday morning at open following the results from partner company Newcrest on Thursday night. Fingers crossed its up and a lot! (It may just be a tickle until the proper GGP estimate is released later in the year though.)
Aa can f
k right off.I sold at 23p ages ago having got bored... Im terrible at this game.I don’t expect the reviews to be anything else but positive. At that price point it’s up against the Urus (drives great but looks too much like an Audi for £200k), a Bentaga (mmm,.. a bit plain), a Cullinan (too much like a London taxi), or a Range Rover (too ubiquitous).. the DBX is expensive but like many of Astons cars they fit a niche of being high end, sporty but not overly flashy - I.e. you could turn up to a client in them without the client hating you immediately.. apologies to anyone whose car I may have insulted
Q&A with Cineworld CEO - https://uk.news.yahoo.com/q-cineworld-ceo-opening-...
Released after markets closed - not a hard hitting business interview but relatively optimistic.
Apologies for spamming!
https://finanz.dk/amc-entertainment-holdings-amc-c...
Q2 AMC (Cineworld competitor) results and investor call transcript above.
Summary -
- They have enough liquidity to last them through to beginning of 2021 with all cinemas shut.
- A third of their cinemas are open in Europe already, they believe all their cinemas will be open by 26th August (Tenets release date)
- They have made good progress reducing costs - rent, interest and staffing costs.
- They see the Universal deal as positive - although couldn’t really say much else - interestingly Universal are not able to tell audiences that a film will be released on Premium Video on Demand until it’s been shown for at least 2 weekends - they also said that 80% of revenue from a film is achieved in that two weeks.
- Premium Video on Demand means that people have to pay for the film, it’s not included in a bundle - Mulan is 30usd and the contract states it must be for a minimum of 20 usd.
- They have achieved decent revenue from cinemas that have opened and also strong food and beverage sales.
Obviously Cine is a different company but I was surprised at how upbeat AMC were - Cine also has the challenge of the upcoming legal battle which will weight on the sp.
Could be an interesting open tomorrow for AA and Cine.. Babcock will probably drop.
https://finanz.dk/amc-entertainment-holdings-amc-c...
Q2 AMC (Cineworld competitor) results and investor call transcript above.
Summary -
- They have enough liquidity to last them through to beginning of 2021 with all cinemas shut.
- A third of their cinemas are open in Europe already, they believe all their cinemas will be open by 26th August (Tenets release date)
- They have made good progress reducing costs - rent, interest and staffing costs.
- They see the Universal deal as positive - although couldn’t really say much else - interestingly Universal are not able to tell audiences that a film will be released on Premium Video on Demand until it’s been shown for at least 2 weekends - they also said that 80% of revenue from a film is achieved in that two weeks.
- Premium Video on Demand means that people have to pay for the film, it’s not included in a bundle - Mulan is 30usd and the contract states it must be for a minimum of 20 usd.
- They have achieved decent revenue from cinemas that have opened and also strong food and beverage sales.
Obviously Cine is a different company but I was surprised at how upbeat AMC were - Cine also has the challenge of the upcoming legal battle which will weight on the sp.
Could be an interesting open tomorrow for AA and Cine.. Babcock will probably drop.
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