What’s your big gamble? (Volume 2)

[petemurphy]

dingg said:

If they do all pull out, the company will have refinanced the debt anyway and that's what's been weighing on the sp. So not disastrous but as you say a few pence on the sp doesn't mean a great deal wrt the debt any purchaser would be taking over, so shareholders are in quite a good position imo.

Going to be an interesting few weeks

4th bidder! Come on Monday!

https://news.sky.com/story/apollo-joins-mission-to...

[SAG6Y]

Anyone topping up on AA on Monday? I’m very tempted.

[Chris Type R]

SAG6Y said:

Anyone topping up on AA on Monday? I’m very tempted.

I have a couple of limit sells set up... I'm thinking I might cancel/reduce number of shares or increase the limits (currently at 35p & 36p). My plan was to remove my original capital, with the remaining shares being funded by AA. profits.

It's good that there's another expression of interest, but I'm still confused/concerned by how slowly the price has risen following the initial announcement. Hopefully the Friday afternoon frenzy will continue following this news.

[ferrisbueller]

Chris Type R said:

SAG6Y said:

Anyone topping up on AA on Monday? I’m very tempted.

I have a couple of limit sells set up... I'm thinking I might cancel/reduce number of shares or increase the limits (currently at 35p & 36p). My plan was to remove my original capital, with the remaining shares being funded by AA. profits.

It's good that there's another expression of interest, but I'm still confused/concerned by how slowly the price has risen following the initial announcement. Hopefully the Friday afternoon frenzy will continue following this news.

How does it work? Do they offer a specific price per share, or make an offer based on the share price at a given point in time, or the average over a specific period or......?

[dingg]

Re AA. takeover you must remember that it's the debt that is the main part of the deal here, ie the debt remains the same,whatever the bid only has to go up a small amount to have a disproportionate effect on the sp.
Iyswim.
It may get interesting this week, last time I said that dlar trebled....

[petemurphy]

dingg said:

Re AA. takeover you must remember that it's the debt that is the main part of the deal here, ie the debt remains the same,whatever the bid only has to go up a small amount to have a disproportionate effect on the sp.
Iyswim.
It may get interesting this week, last time I said that dlar trebled....

if it does get taken over do we just sit back and get the cash for the shares and if so how long does it take? thanks

[Chris Type R]

petemurphy said:

if it does get taken over do we just sit back and get the cash for the shares and if so how long does it take? thanks

There's a generic article here - https://www.lovemoney.com/guides/88705/investments...

[dingg]

petemurphy said:

if it does get taken over do we just sit back and get the cash for the shares and if so how long does it take? thanks

If it's an agreed deal the sp will be close to the bid, you can either sell up then and remove any risk of it collapsing or hold on until the bitter end.

[500 Miles]

dingg said:

petemurphy said:

if it does get taken over do we just sit back and get the cash for the shares and if so how long does it take? thanks

If it's an agreed deal the sp will be close to the bid, you can either sell up then and remove any risk of it collapsing or hold on until the bitter end.

I had this on Rock Rose Energy - SP went up about 80% when the bid was announced. Bid was at 1850 and it immediately went to 1830/1840 - I sold out at the 1830/1840 level - would have got slightly more by waiting until the acquisition was completed but the difference in that case was negligible and thought it best to derisk early.

If the market thinks the bid will definitely succeed then the sp will go close to the bid price - if it doesn’t then it may not rise too much (AA situation) - if the market thinks there is going to be a higher bidder then sometimes the sp raises to above the bid price.

Obviously in AA’s case we don’t have a formal offer price yet. I’m going to wait until there is a decent preferred offer.

As others have said, the actual sp will represent a small portion of the purchase price - hopefully that means we could see a good increase from current levels.

[petemurphy]

500 Miles said:

I had this on Rock Rose Energy - SP went up about 80% when the bid was announced. Bid was at 1850 and it immediately went to 1830/1840 - I sold out at the 1830/1840 level - would have got slightly more by waiting until the acquisition was completed but the difference in that case was negligible and thought it best to derisk early.

If the market thinks the bid will definitely succeed then the sp will go close to the bid price - if it doesn’t then it may not rise too much (AA situation) - if the market thinks there is going to be a higher bidder then sometimes the sp raises to above the bid price.

Obviously in AA’s case we don’t have a formal offer price yet. I’m going to wait until there is a decent preferred offer.

As others have said, the actual sp will represent a small portion of the purchase price - hopefully that means we could see a good increase from current levels.

thanks all - so if for example there was a bid announced on tuesday, would you be unable to sell the second they accept the bid ( if they do )? if once the bid is accepted approx how long would it take to get the money - ie would your capital be tied up for a few weeks etc whilst they do all the legal bits. dont want the capital to be unavailable for a while at the mo. thanks

[petemurphy]

if they are taken over do we know of any other companies that look vulnerable to a takeover? dare i say babcock! any others?



hmmm:


Graham Simpson, of Quest, which specialises in identifying buy-out opportunities of listed companies, said that house builders such as Redrow and Bellway were attractive targets. Dixons Carphone and Pets at Home, which have largely survived the onslaught from the likes of Amazon despite carnage on the high street, will also be popular, he added.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/08/08/aa...

[500 Miles]

Anyone invested in AO?

They’ve been in the press a few times recently (including today’s Sunday Times) about new bonus scheme which fully pays out if the shares top 1255p - currently 172p and floated at 285p in 2014... last 5 years has seen revenue grow quite significantly (£600m to £1bn) but only made £1.5m profit last year and losses the other years..

Glass Lewis pushing back as they think the bonuses are too generous but if achieved it would mean transforming a £800m mcap company into almost a £8bn mcap company.. execs rarely ask for bonuses they don’t think they can achieve..

Obviously there will be other levels paid out but it shows confidence...

Thoughts? SP has tripled since May which is probably when I started looking at them... grrr

[500 Miles]

petemurphy said:

thanks all - so if for example there was a bid announced on tuesday, would you be unable to sell the second they accept the bid ( if they do )? if once the bid is accepted approx how long would it take to get the money - ie would your capital be tied up for a few weeks etc whilst they do all the legal bits. dont want the capital to be unavailable for a while at the mo. thanks

You can sell whenever pretty much - if they announced a bid on Tuesday then there will be lots of due diligence and negotiations going on, it would then need to be put to a vote (you would get asked to vote). Could take months between a bid and acceptance and completion.

On Rock Rose, the bid was announced a couple of months ago (from memory) and there shares are still listed - if I hadn’t sold when it was announced I could have sold on Friday.

If you do hold up until the acquisition is complete, there may be a delay between completion and settlement (you getting your cash) - I’ve done this before and (again from memory so could be wrong) there was a delay of a few days.

[petemurphy]

500 Miles said:

You can sell whenever pretty much - if they announced a bid on Tuesday then there will be lots of due diligence and negotiations going on, it would then need to be put to a vote (you would get asked to vote). Could take months between a bid and acceptance and completion.

On Rock Rose, the bid was announced a couple of months ago (from memory) and there shares are still listed - if I hadn’t sold when it was announced I could have sold on Friday.

If you do hold up until the acquisition is complete, there may be a delay between completion and settlement (you getting your cash) - I’ve done this before and (again from memory so could be wrong) there was a delay of a few days.

thanks sounds like selling may be best. will see what happens!

[500 Miles]

petemurphy said:

if they are taken over do we know of any other companies that look vulnerable to a takeover? dare i say babcock! any others?



hmmm:


Graham Simpson, of Quest, which specialises in identifying buy-out opportunities of listed companies, said that house builders such as Redrow and Bellway were attractive targets. Dixons Carphone and Pets at Home, which have largely survived the onslaught from the likes of Amazon despite carnage on the high street, will also be popular, he added.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/08/08/aa...

With SP’s down due to Covid and gbp exchange rate weak, it’s probably easier to list companies that don’t have takeover potential.

Would think Babcock (they don’t have a golden share but would probably need to be bought by a UK based company due to defence)... RR could be attractive to BAE.. IDP could be attractive to RB... Capita (although integration challenges would put most off I think).. SHI..

RBG - cheap way to buy 76 bars and two decent brands ...

Ted Baker, Super Dry, Mulberry and N Brown could be cheaply acquired by either PE or Boo\ASOS\Ashley - would be surprised if they hadn’t looked.

Money is cheap just now and shares are depressed - it’s a good time to buy..

[petemurphy]

This may have been covered before but re SKIN i am loving the bullish tweets at the mo and have upped my stake but still dont know if I should get into MWG?

what are peoples thoughts? might as well stick it all in skin or is there a reason to have both etc?

Thanks

[500 Miles]

petemurphy said:

thanks sounds like selling may be best. will see what happens!

On AA, I’m waiting until the suitors have played their hands - then see if the sp heads close to the offer price. If it does then I’ll sell before it completes and take advantage (hopefully) of another recovery share. No point waiting if the difference is only a couple of percent.

Feels like we’re a few weeks away from that - they could of course all walk away next week and the sp drops down again...

[500 Miles]

petemurphy said:

This may have been covered before but re SKIN i am loving the bullish tweets at the mo and have upped my stake but still dont know if I should get into MWG?

what are peoples thoughts? might as well stick it all in skin or is there a reason to have both etc?

Thanks

I’ve got both - although have 4.5 times as much (by value) SKIN than MWG. I bought them roughly at the same time and SKIN has increased by 29% whilst MWG has increased by 5.7%.

Also have AVACTA (half of my MWG holding) and it’s up by 7% - AVACTA have an agreement with SKIN and MWG.

No idea what the right answer is - SKIN seems to be the one that has the most potential, although it’s not 100% obvious..

[petemurphy]

500 Miles said:

I’ve got both - although have 4.5 times as much (by value) SKIN than MWG. I bought them roughly at the same time and SKIN has increased by 29% whilst MWG has increased by 5.7%.

Also have AVACTA (half of my MWG holding) and it’s up by 7% - AVACTA have an agreement with SKIN and MWG.

No idea what the right answer is - SKIN seems to be the one that has the most potential, although it’s not 100% obvious..

thanks - suppose you could say that mwg has more room to grow although skin seems to be the main man's baby. if they can nail the real time detection I really think this has legs. hopefully they wont nail it until i've sold AA so i can reinvest

[500 Miles]

petemurphy said:

thanks - suppose you could say that mwg has more room to grow although skin seems to be the main man's baby. if they can nail the real time detection I really think this has legs. hopefully they wont nail it until i've sold AA so i can reinvest

I’m edging towards putting my AA proceeds into RBG... will need to review their accounts and ar before that I think.. was looking at RBG again last night and the leadership have previously bought in at higher levels, as well as investing during the rights issue - not huge levels but decent amounts.