House Price Crash Coming?
Discussion
moles said:
But will wfh be here longterm?, I don’t think it will several companies have come out and said they want people back at the office and what people don’t seem to be grasping with wfh is that if you can work from 200 miles away someone in Bangladesh can do your job as well for a third of your wage.
They really couldn't. The people we speak to regularly in subcontinent call centres used by utility companies are the best graduates they can recruit. They're generally useless unless the call is strictly on script. Any role which requires even occasional independent thought is perfectly safe, imho.Pothole said:
moles said:
But will wfh be here longterm?, I don’t think it will several companies have come out and said they want people back at the office and what people don’t seem to be grasping with wfh is that if you can work from 200 miles away someone in Bangladesh can do your job as well for a third of your wage.
They really couldn't. The people we speak to regularly in subcontinent call centres used by utility companies are the best graduates they can recruit. They're generally useless unless the call is strictly on script. Any role which requires even occasional independent thought is perfectly safe, imho.How well do they pay compared to graduate professions over there?
hyphen said:
Pothole said:
moles said:
But will wfh be here longterm?, I don’t think it will several companies have come out and said they want people back at the office and what people don’t seem to be grasping with wfh is that if you can work from 200 miles away someone in Bangladesh can do your job as well for a third of your wage.
They really couldn't. The people we speak to regularly in subcontinent call centres used by utility companies are the best graduates they can recruit. They're generally useless unless the call is strictly on script. Any role which requires even occasional independent thought is perfectly safe, imho.How well do they pay compared to graduate professions over there?
The "best graduates they can recruit" line is a very limited view. Some very large firms have offshored functions such as their entire 'desktop' legal team and their standard accounting teams.
I've worked with some very clever and professional people across the subcontinent and Eastern Europe over the past 15 years, some of whom have gone on to very senior roles in big businesses both there and here.
Regardless, property prices will fall. We're in recession now and the impact has only just begun. As we move towards the end of furlough the number of unemployed people will rise even more dramatically and more businesses we know will go pop. Then negative sentiment kicks in...
I'd say 15% off peak is about right. Anyone buying a house at 5 or 10% above realistic value now to save 5% on stamp duty needs their heads reading. But FOMO is very real!
I've worked with some very clever and professional people across the subcontinent and Eastern Europe over the past 15 years, some of whom have gone on to very senior roles in big businesses both there and here.
Regardless, property prices will fall. We're in recession now and the impact has only just begun. As we move towards the end of furlough the number of unemployed people will rise even more dramatically and more businesses we know will go pop. Then negative sentiment kicks in...
I'd say 15% off peak is about right. Anyone buying a house at 5 or 10% above realistic value now to save 5% on stamp duty needs their heads reading. But FOMO is very real!
bogie said:
but dont forget, no-one ever lost money on property, it always goes up ....mmmm...perhaps not if you are the person sat in negative equity after buying in a boom and paying mortgage interest whilst you wait for the market to come back up......
Sold my flat in mid 2008 to a young girl for £118k.Those flats are now going for £60k and as far as I can tell it’s never been sold in the meantime.
Genuinely feel sorry for her.
rossub said:
bogie said:
but dont forget, no-one ever lost money on property, it always goes up ....mmmm...perhaps not if you are the person sat in negative equity after buying in a boom and paying mortgage interest whilst you wait for the market to come back up......
Sold my flat in mid 2008 to a young girl for £118k.Those flats are now going for £60k and as far as I can tell it’s never been sold in the meantime.
Genuinely feel sorry for her.
We feel lucky to have got the 220k tbh.
Potentially those flagging big price rises on the coast is the impact of those in the South East either buying another pad as it’s cheaper per year than the annual holiday overseas. Or those in the South East want to move to less populous areas with more space and can WFH with the occasional commute to the office or a regional office.
This will push prices up for those areas and hurt local first time buyers but if a non local is buying and buying to live there not second home then frankly there is nothing that can be done
This will push prices up for those areas and hurt local first time buyers but if a non local is buying and buying to live there not second home then frankly there is nothing that can be done
Boom years are over. Never going to see gains like that again. My parents paid £60k in 1992 now worth £350k easily.
I think a crash has kind of already happened as others have said when inflation is taken into account house prices have been flat for ages. I don’t think we will see a full on Japanese 1980s land crash but just no real rise. We paid £525k for our flat 2016 probably get £550k maybe £580k at a push.
Unless you are moving very far, trying to get on the ladder or selling to actually make a profit it doesn’t make much difference. If the house we want drops ours will drop as well.
I think a crash has kind of already happened as others have said when inflation is taken into account house prices have been flat for ages. I don’t think we will see a full on Japanese 1980s land crash but just no real rise. We paid £525k for our flat 2016 probably get £550k maybe £580k at a push.
Unless you are moving very far, trying to get on the ladder or selling to actually make a profit it doesn’t make much difference. If the house we want drops ours will drop as well.
Hitch said:
Regardless, property prices will fall. We're in recession now and the impact has only just begun. As we move towards the end of furlough the number of unemployed people will rise even more dramatically and more businesses we know will go pop. Then negative sentiment kicks in...
I'd say 15% off peak is about right. Anyone buying a house at 5 or 10% above realistic value now to save 5% on stamp duty needs their heads reading. But FOMO is very real!
It's also easy to think that everyone has a base level of comprehension and understanding but they just don't. I'd say 15% off peak is about right. Anyone buying a house at 5 or 10% above realistic value now to save 5% on stamp duty needs their heads reading. But FOMO is very real!
Half the population is thick as f
k. Just look at the number of people that will spend £400 or £500 a month on a car "because it's cheaper to run than my old car" Price rises round my way aren't as extreme as some on here although my immediate neighbour who has a house identical to mine in layout is asking 30% more than I bought mine for a couple of years ago.
Hitch said:
I'd say 15% off peak is about right. Anyone buying a house at 5 or 10% above realistic value now to save 5% on stamp duty needs their heads reading. But FOMO is very real!
Indeed. Around here, we saw an immediate few percent go onto pre-lockdown prices as soon as the market re-opened and then a few more once stamp duty was reduced, so they are quite a away up in total.Then, they actually started going under offer. It will be interesting to see how many chains actually complete of course.
This is in an outer London suburb with a fast rail connection so if anything should be expected to be a 'net loser' once the full impact of CV-19 settles down.
Due to globalisation house prices can't just be viewed at a national level, you need to look at the prices at an international level and how they are fairing in English speaking countries similar to ourselves (Australia, America and Canada) which are all on a downward trajectory.
Capital controls in China introduced in 2018 mean property prices in many major cities has taken a nose dive as most the new-builds are to cater for foreign investment and the market has evaporated.
Can see massive reductions in inner city real estate due to underutilised office space being turned into residential and outside of London places like Manchester which have been on a mini building boom and also around large lesser universities as there's been so much student accommodation created lots of which will be sitting empty this next year.
A global recession is fast appearing on the horizon of which we haven't witnessed within our lifetime, either inflation is going to go up massively which may help with assets such as houses or there's going to be an interest rate rise.
The voting demographic is rapidly shifting as older people die and young people can't afford to own housing so political parties will be keeping that in mind for the next election as generally older home owners will vote Conservative whilst younger renters vote Labour so the pro house owner policies we've had for the past 30 years may be coming to an end.
Capital controls in China introduced in 2018 mean property prices in many major cities has taken a nose dive as most the new-builds are to cater for foreign investment and the market has evaporated.
Can see massive reductions in inner city real estate due to underutilised office space being turned into residential and outside of London places like Manchester which have been on a mini building boom and also around large lesser universities as there's been so much student accommodation created lots of which will be sitting empty this next year.
A global recession is fast appearing on the horizon of which we haven't witnessed within our lifetime, either inflation is going to go up massively which may help with assets such as houses or there's going to be an interest rate rise.
The voting demographic is rapidly shifting as older people die and young people can't afford to own housing so political parties will be keeping that in mind for the next election as generally older home owners will vote Conservative whilst younger renters vote Labour so the pro house owner policies we've had for the past 30 years may be coming to an end.
Edited by untakenname on Wednesday 12th August 10:16
Pothole said:
moles said:
But will wfh be here longterm?, I don’t think it will several companies have come out and said they want people back at the office and what people don’t seem to be grasping with wfh is that if you can work from 200 miles away someone in Bangladesh can do your job as well for a third of your wage.
They really couldn't. The people we speak to regularly in subcontinent call centres used by utility companies are the best graduates they can recruit. They're generally useless unless the call is strictly on script. Any role which requires even occasional independent thought is perfectly safe, imho.rossub said:
bogie said:
but dont forget, no-one ever lost money on property, it always goes up ....mmmm...perhaps not if you are the person sat in negative equity after buying in a boom and paying mortgage interest whilst you wait for the market to come back up......
Sold my flat in mid 2008 to a young girl for £118k.Those flats are now going for £60k and as far as I can tell it’s never been sold in the meantime.
Genuinely feel sorry for her.
I was brought up with elder relatives telling me how property had been their best investment ....sure it was for a generation that lived through multiple housing booms from the 70s through to 2007.
bogie said:
rossub said:
bogie said:
but dont forget, no-one ever lost money on property, it always goes up ....mmmm...perhaps not if you are the person sat in negative equity after buying in a boom and paying mortgage interest whilst you wait for the market to come back up......
Sold my flat in mid 2008 to a young girl for £118k.Those flats are now going for £60k and as far as I can tell it’s never been sold in the meantime.
Genuinely feel sorry for her.
I was brought up with elder relatives telling me how property had been their best investment ....sure it was for a generation that lived through multiple housing booms from the 70s through to 2007.
IIRC in Japan its got that bad the govt will pay you to "buy" a house. This is to prevent them just falling into ruin. They are giving them away basically.
My mother tells a story that her dad was shocked when she paid £3000 for a house (think it was the 60s). He thought she was crazy because his big house was only £400 late 40s IIRC).
Personally I think the housing market is very much controlled these days. The issue is houses (which you live in) are not really investments they are just vehicles to distribute wealth to the next generation or pay for care in the later part of your life.
My mother tells a story that her dad was shocked when she paid £3000 for a house (think it was the 60s). He thought she was crazy because his big house was only £400 late 40s IIRC).
Personally I think the housing market is very much controlled these days. The issue is houses (which you live in) are not really investments they are just vehicles to distribute wealth to the next generation or pay for care in the later part of your life.
I think there will be a shift from the premium paid for small properties and 'City centre living'.
I think WFH will continue in many roles. I think mine will be mixed. I can do some things from home, but a significant amount I need to be hands on. There is also the training issue - how do you do it WFH? Outsourcing is possible for some, but it isn't as big a saving as you may think and the administration overhead is high.
I think WFH will continue in many roles. I think mine will be mixed. I can do some things from home, but a significant amount I need to be hands on. There is also the training issue - how do you do it WFH? Outsourcing is possible for some, but it isn't as big a saving as you may think and the administration overhead is high.
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