What’s your big gamble? (Volume 3)
Discussion
JontyR said:
Non-Exec Director Joshua Alliance bought 7.8m shares in Brown Group (BWNG) on the 11th.
Their share price has risen from 14p to 72p in the last year. But still a quarter of what it was a few years ago. Do you think there is any mileage in these shares?
In fact looking at the director dealings in the last 3 months over 100m shares have been bought.
Good question.. This is one of my top performing shares, currently up 318% and I believe it has further to run. As you say, the directors have put a significant amount of money into the shares recently and they have much better visibility of performance than we do. Their share price has risen from 14p to 72p in the last year. But still a quarter of what it was a few years ago. Do you think there is any mileage in these shares?
In fact looking at the director dealings in the last 3 months over 100m shares have been bought.
Last year they did a trading update on March 23rd, the directors probably wouldn’t be able to buy any shares within 30 days of a trading update.. I think it’s looking pretty positive, especially when you consider how many other shares represent good value just now - to put such a large investment in one shows confidence..
I’m holding and hoping for a shareprice £1+ within 6 months.
MikeStroud said:
petemurphy said:
Fat Thor said:
Anyone still in EQT? anyone got a PT for the end of year? reading different things on lse.
i finally got a little bit last week and its done nothing since having fluctuated quite a lot before so might get out again as boredChris Type R said:
Interesting CPI RNS re. potential sale - https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/C... of AXELOS.
I always find it amazing that Capita owns ITIL, Prince and MSP... firstly as they don’t seem the kind of things you own but secondly because Capita isn’t exactly a shining example in how to deliver programmes or operate services..EarlOfHazard said:
dom9 said:
Have bought and sold Amigo, and have lost money. I did buy back in, at present, if they go up another penny, then I'll be even, but to recoup all my losses, it'd need to go up to 28p. Hopefully one day!!
Aiminghigh123 said:
JontyR said:
Do people think Nightcap have reached their peak now? Is anyone else keeping theirs with an aim for a big rise? Im at the max for my ISA at the moment and want to average down into
Oilex
Greatland
and AFC
I’m still in nightcap but just with my profit which I will let run. Oilex
Greatland
and AFC
I’m a long term holder but not expecting the sp to do anything spectacular over the short to mid term (other than what’s already done), I do think they have a great management team and a good strategy - they have the potential to become a sizeable group and will benefit from the pr which th4 management team can create.
Chris Type R said:
MikeStroud said:
Chris Type R said:
vulture1 said:
petemurphy said:
500 Miles said:
Why do we keep torturing ourselves?? I keep thinking Gerry and Mo will pull a cat out of a hat... I need help..
Ha good to hear from you wondered where you had gone! I still think they will come good gb has too much ego but really should keep selling in the 30’s for the decline that always happens! If the kazoo works then would be amazing but not betting on that. Think they have a good future and I like saying clunge a lot MikeStroud said:
dom9 said:
Chris Type R said:
What are people's thoughts re. an exit price for AMGO ?
I only have a 'dabble' holding - thinking 19/20p... which I'm sure will be seen by some to be too conservative.
I am having to re-evaluate by the day here. I genuinely believed it was a multi-bagger, determined by what happens at the end of March.I only have a 'dabble' holding - thinking 19/20p... which I'm sure will be seen by some to be too conservative.
Edited by Chris Type R on Wednesday 24th February 09:11
I had no idea or even hope that I'd be typing this 85% up in a couple of weeks, so I am more 'nervous' than I would have otherwise been at this stage.
Clearly something is going on but I am not sure if we'll find out what that is tomorrow at 9:30am or if we'll find out at all any time soon, which means there could be re-trace on a lack of news.
I was targeting up to 30p after March news (or lower lows). Could be there (20-30p) in the next couple of days. In which case, I might cut and run and continue to monitor 'out', looking at another opportunity to re-enter on a dip.
I don't see a middle ground for them and my view (which is probably stupid so don't listen to me) is that I've taken the risk, if they survive then for the risk to have been worthwhile I'm looking for a ton of upside.
Ps.
If you have a financial advisor who speaks like this, I suggest you find a new financial advisor
Phooey said:
Does this chap reckon 30p best case for Amigo? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrev_gR5nRE
He does and whilst you can't fault his technical analysis of tea cups and saucers, he's not as accurate as my go to analyst. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_6IFWIQzHc
MikeStroud said:
Skyedriver said:
Bit of a poll:
If you found £500 down the back of the sofa this afternoon would you:
top up AMGO
top up EUA
top up PHE
top up GGP
top up AVCT
buy SNG
something else
?
EUAIf you found £500 down the back of the sofa this afternoon would you:
top up AMGO
top up EUA
top up PHE
top up GGP
top up AVCT
buy SNG
something else
?
AMGO might still go bust.
If not Amigo, I would go Alpha Growth.
vulture1 said:
ATM said:
Amigo
Not seen this mentioned much recently. Getting closer to the big day for a decision on their arrangement with people making claims.
we've been in and out. A few still holding I suspect.Not seen this mentioned much recently. Getting closer to the big day for a decision on their arrangement with people making claims.
Consensus seemed to be a few were waiting for 10p again. I might put some in at 11p though.
When the fun stops... double
Adam. said:
MikeStroud said:
Your positive spin on the RNS is valid. However to me I see it as corrupt because:
(1) cheap shares to "select group" of II - i.e. their buddies?
(2) cheap shares to a couple of directors.
OK so the company needs to raise finance, all companies are at it this year for one reason or another, but directors are appointed to get best value for the shareholders not to feather their own nest. IMO any fund raising should be offered to existing sh first or at least a part of it.
In deals like the one 4D has done all sh get is a dilution. I feel like I'm being mugged for each fund raise where I am a sh and don't get the opportunity to buy in.
I know this is a simplistic view but it seems to me so many companies are doing fund raises that exclude existing sh and/or have been arranged in private and when they are publicised there is like a few hours to opt in which is inadequate for most PI.
Some of these directors need to be looking after their sh better imo. Rant over !
Totally agree Mike(1) cheap shares to "select group" of II - i.e. their buddies?
(2) cheap shares to a couple of directors.
OK so the company needs to raise finance, all companies are at it this year for one reason or another, but directors are appointed to get best value for the shareholders not to feather their own nest. IMO any fund raising should be offered to existing sh first or at least a part of it.
In deals like the one 4D has done all sh get is a dilution. I feel like I'm being mugged for each fund raise where I am a sh and don't get the opportunity to buy in.
I know this is a simplistic view but it seems to me so many companies are doing fund raises that exclude existing sh and/or have been arranged in private and when they are publicised there is like a few hours to opt in which is inadequate for most PI.
Some of these directors need to be looking after their sh better imo. Rant over !
is it really necessary to discount by 16% for a company with a bright future and upcoming Nasdaq listing? the discount should be equivalent to the diluted SP and offered to all, which would doubtless be over-subscribed and could raise more / send a positive message
Awarding a director the cheap shares is akin to insider dealing IMHO, or huge and immoral conflict of interest at best
Edited by Adam. on Wednesday 17th March 21:54
Going through this at the moment with IDP and I can understand why companies don’t offer to retail shareholders - to raise money from the II’s and Directors the amount of work is negligible - I wouldn’t say it’s as simple as doing an A4 worth of text and making a few phone calls... but it’s not a huge amount of work - it can be done in days.. when you offer the shares to retail investors the level of effort is significantly increased and the oversight by the FCA is also much greater.
You need to do a full prospectus and you need in-depth information about the companies operations checked, checked and re-checked.
We needed a raise urgently due to historic mismanagement so we raised a first tranche via ii’s and we are now doing a 2nd tranche with retail shareholders - at the same price.
For me, that was the right thing to do, it seemed very unfair not to give existing shareholders access to the discounted shares - also didn’t want it to look like I was benefiting from being involved in the company - however, it is fair to say I didn’t appreciate the level of effort involved in opening up the offer to existing sh.
Adam. said:
Well done on the fair approach. An interesting and valid counter point. I don’t mind if it’s not offered to PI if it’s say a 5% discount, but some are 20-30% or more on AIM.
What discount did you offer and how did you arrive at that?
The new shares are at 35p and the shares are currently trading at circa 40p - however the discount from what the shares were trading at before the announcement was circa 28%. What discount did you offer and how did you arrive at that?
Edited by Adam. on Thursday 18th March 00:38
This was essentially driven by the market - you go out to a number of potential investors who can move quickly and ask how much and at what price, you then negotiate and agree one price for everyone.
It’s a balance between raising sufficient capital whilst minimising the discount. You also factor in how long term you think shareholders will be - you don’t want to sell a large number of shares to someone who will just dump them into the market for a quick profit - which then obviously impacts the shareprice. The more capital you need and the more urgently you need it impacts the discount.
It’s definitely not a perfect system and I agree that a lot of boards seem to have unfairly benefitted significantly, often through mismanaging cash flow or not adapting quickly enough to changing environments.
If anyone is interested, I might do a thread on it once we’re clear of the placing and moving forward - it’s been really interesting... (Thanks BenBay
) MikeStroud said:
Scootersp said:
MikeStroud said:
Note that some on here and elsewhere believe the whole thing is a scam. Maybe they are right, maybe they ar enot. Draw your own conclusions.
I can't see how people can see it's a scam, but it has issues/risks around it.You are integrating a new system into the workings of the company and every transaction it makes, ie it's risky for the company adopting it and potential savings from the product could be lost with set up glitches, probably like lots of implementations but some inherent risk and harder to trial this I'd imagine than most services systems?
The benefits are to give a company better (higher and earlier) credit and possibly cheaper than it can get at present, so a risk is current credit providers react and move their margins lower to retain the companies that might otherwise move to SYME ie they stay with the "devil they know" as the potential savings aren't worth the structural changes?
The SYME risk/reward balance is good for me at present (I got out of AMGO because the risk/reward balance didn't stack up for me), each to their own I guess.
That assertion alone should give us confidence.
I’ve got 7 or 8 times as many Amigo as Syme... writing that out makes me question what the feck I’m doing...
He who dares my son...
DSLiverpool said:
jammy-git said:
Ridealong said:
Futura Medical up 172% today 
What's powering this rise?
Tipped by Breadvan last year and I bought in a few times, happy days.
Should be an interesting week ahead for them, plenty of positive press over the weekend.
lewisf182 said:
Chris Type R said:
AMGO profit taking tomorrow ?
What are peoples thoughts on this? Now that the first stage it seems has been passed, will there be a rise up till 12th may or just profit taking & sinking back below 10p? Obviously crystal ball time here For me, it's an all or nothing play I've only got £1.5k in so happy to let it ride out. Unless it massively increases close to the 12th then I'll de-risk my initial investment for a free ride.Obviously quite a lot of press about the decision out of hours which will drive retail demand, plus we might see some funds dipping their toes in now the risk has been reduced.
All conjecture, although I think the chances of it dropping down to 10p are minimal. I’m 1% away from a bagger..
Ariba ariba!
Chris Type R said:
500 Miles said:
lewisf182 said:
Chris Type R said:
AMGO profit taking tomorrow ?
What are peoples thoughts on this? Now that the first stage it seems has been passed, will there be a rise up till 12th may or just profit taking & sinking back below 10p? Obviously crystal ball time here For me, it's an all or nothing play I've only got £1.5k in so happy to let it ride out. Unless it massively increases close to the 12th then I'll de-risk my initial investment for a free ride.Obviously quite a lot of press about the decision out of hours which will drive retail demand, plus we might see some funds dipping their toes in now the risk has been reduced.
All conjecture, although I think the chances of it dropping down to 10p are minimal. I’m 1% away from a bagger..
Ariba ariba!
As someone once said - never make predictions, especially about the future...
Gassing Station | Finance | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff