Stock market is a "fully-fledged epic bubble" and will burst
Discussion
Lim said:
clubsport said:
I've no idea where you get that % from...
There are plenty of options strategies you can use to hedge a position or portfolio, is that gambling as such?
e.g. If you owned a stock or long an index position and considered selling it, you could sell a call taking in the premium on the option.
If the market fell you still had the position and the option premium, to cover some of the lost value.
If the market went up and the call was exercised, you would be taken out of your position at the strike price, you were considering selling anyway and keep the premium.
All investments have an element of opportunity cost, I don't think it is right to suggest they are outright gambling, if you are educated on such matters?
Yes the theory is quite sound. But how many people who trade options on IG are really managing risk in an organised way? It's easy to rationalise away your motives with valid theory. It's not so easy to overcome temptation to expand. All I'm saying, it's' something to keep in mind. There are plenty of options strategies you can use to hedge a position or portfolio, is that gambling as such?
e.g. If you owned a stock or long an index position and considered selling it, you could sell a call taking in the premium on the option.
If the market fell you still had the position and the option premium, to cover some of the lost value.
If the market went up and the call was exercised, you would be taken out of your position at the strike price, you were considering selling anyway and keep the premium.
All investments have an element of opportunity cost, I don't think it is right to suggest they are outright gambling, if you are educated on such matters?
Education also is only part of it. Many advise others by the book and still make the same bias led mistakes privately.
Edited by Lim on Monday 18th January 15:08
At this point "reality" has IMO left the room.
Bitcoin = Real money (no it's not, it's Monopoly money)
Tesla = Tech company (not it's not, it's a car company)
Equities = upwards only, innit (we'll see)
Anyone want to buy some tulips? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania
Bitcoin = Real money (no it's not, it's Monopoly money)
Tesla = Tech company (not it's not, it's a car company)
Equities = upwards only, innit (we'll see)
Anyone want to buy some tulips? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania
rockin said:
At this point "reality" has IMO left the room.
Bitcoin = Real money (no it's not, it's Monopoly money)
Tesla = Tech company (not it's not, it's a car company)
Equities = upwards only, innit (we'll see)
Anyone want to buy some tulips? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania
Trouble is, objectively US markets have looked bonkers for years. But they've kept going up.Bitcoin = Real money (no it's not, it's Monopoly money)
Tesla = Tech company (not it's not, it's a car company)
Equities = upwards only, innit (we'll see)
Anyone want to buy some tulips? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania
rockin said:
At this point "reality" has IMO left the room.
Bitcoin = Real money (no it's not, it's Monopoly money)
Tesla = Tech company (not it's not, it's a car company)
Equities = upwards only, innit (we'll see)
Anyone want to buy some tulips? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania
Yes and this is where the "rich getting richer" quotes always come out. Your company doing well and you working hard for them gets you a 5% pay rise max. But your company doing well results in the share price rising by 10/ 20 50% so the shareholder does better.Bitcoin = Real money (no it's not, it's Monopoly money)
Tesla = Tech company (not it's not, it's a car company)
Equities = upwards only, innit (we'll see)
Anyone want to buy some tulips? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania
Universal employee might even be lucky enough to work in a company that gives them shares. Universal employee "great free money sell sell sell" short term cash instead of thinking the long game.
I wish I had worked this out a long time ago.
Sheepshanks said:
Trouble is, objectively US markets have looked bonkers for years. But they've kept going up.
Possibly, but I've had a very good ride these last five years and have been trimming back holdings today. "Leave some for the next man" and all that (see below).When this thing lets go there will be the usual scramble to get out with many retail investors screaming "I can't get through to my broker" or "the website's flooded" or whatever the latest traffic jam may be.
Equally, markets may have some distance yet to run so I'm still in the game although not quite so committed.
Article from 2013: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/sharew...
"David Buik, the veteran City commentator, has a good rule for investment: when you sell a share leave something in for the next man. What that means is don't hold on too long. If the shares have had a good run, sell up, book your profits, and celebrate. If the shares carry on rising, well, you've still made good money, so why worry?"
vulture1 said:
Yes and this is where the "rich getting richer" quotes always come out. Your company doing well and you working hard for them gets you a 5% pay rise max. But your company doing well results in the share price rising by 10/ 20 50% so the shareholder does better.
Universal employee might even be lucky enough to work in a company that gives them shares. Universal employee "great free money sell sell sell" short term cash instead of thinking the long game.
I wish I had worked this out a long time ago.
Problem for universal employee is they probably don’t want to have their savings (shares) linked to the same place they have a job. Company goes down and the time you most need your savings is when they’re screwed. Better to sell and buy other shares most likely to balance risk.Universal employee might even be lucky enough to work in a company that gives them shares. Universal employee "great free money sell sell sell" short term cash instead of thinking the long game.
I wish I had worked this out a long time ago.
cheddar said:
BoRED S2upid said:
Bitcoin, gold, silver, property, wine
Have you thought of the physicality and fragility of that if it involves tens or hundreds of thousands of pounds?Gold? Yes.
Silver? Definitely yes.
Bitcoin? Mmm, not so sure..
And there lies the issue. Because they are used by the genuinely wealthy to in effect, derisk and because they are not regulated by any credible entity they are flogged by criminals to mugs who want to get rich quick without vomiting any labour or brains.
So at one end they are assets used for derisking wealth while over at the other end they are highly efficient tools to get idiots to wire you all of their wife's savings.
NRS said:
Problem for universal employee is they probably don’t want to have their savings (shares) linked to the same place they have a job. Company goes down and the time you most need your savings is when they’re screwed. Better to sell and buy other shares most likely to balance risk.
You’d think so, but this almost never happens without firm guidance. I advise a lot of blue chip Execs as part of their package. The concentration risk is always present and there is often a resistance to diversify. Not tax driven as you might anticipate, just loyalty and a belief the company they chose to work for is unlikely to fail/stumble. This often carries through into retirement/redundancy.
Edited by DoubleSix on Tuesday 26th January 08:30
ATM said:
Has everyone seen what's happened to Game Stop?
I bought in yesterday at $109. I nearly cashed out at $158 but hesitated 
Hoping that the Redditors keep holding and it goes up a bit today. Even if I lose a little I can live with it!!
There’s some posts on Reddit of people with 25,000+ shares so there is some serious money at stake here!
cheddar said:
BoRED S2upid said:
Bitcoin, gold, silver, property, wine
Have you thought of the physicality and fragility of that if it involves tens or hundreds of thousands of pounds?Gold? Yes.
Silver? Definitely yes.
Bitcoin? Mmm, not so sure..
The Rotrex Kid said:
ATM said:
Has everyone seen what's happened to Game Stop?
I bought in yesterday at $109. I nearly cashed out at $158 but hesitated Hoping that the Redditors keep holding and it goes up a bit today. Even if I lose a little I can live with it!!
There’s some posts on Reddit of people with 25,000+ shares so there is some serious money at stake here!
ATM said:
The Rotrex Kid said:
ATM said:
Has everyone seen what's happened to Game Stop?
I bought in yesterday at $109. I nearly cashed out at $158 but hesitated Hoping that the Redditors keep holding and it goes up a bit today. Even if I lose a little I can live with it!!
There’s some posts on Reddit of people with 25,000+ shares so there is some serious money at stake here!
It’s a fascinating story, like a mini soap opera.
Melvin capital heavily shorted and have basically gone bust.
Have a look at blackberrys share price too.....
btdk5 said:
Just use IG?
It’s a fascinating story, like a mini soap opera.
Melvin capital heavily shorted and have basically gone bust.
Have a look at blackberrys share price too.....
I have bought via Revolut. Dead simple and very fast. It’s amazing seeing people holding $11m+ of this stock on Reddit. Brass balls!It’s a fascinating story, like a mini soap opera.
Melvin capital heavily shorted and have basically gone bust.
Have a look at blackberrys share price too.....
The Rotrex Kid said:
btdk5 said:
Just use IG?
It’s a fascinating story, like a mini soap opera.
Melvin capital heavily shorted and have basically gone bust.
Have a look at blackberrys share price too.....
I have bought via Revolut. Dead simple and very fast. It’s amazing seeing people holding $11m+ of this stock on Reddit. Brass balls!It’s a fascinating story, like a mini soap opera.
Melvin capital heavily shorted and have basically gone bust.
Have a look at blackberrys share price too.....
Are those options?
Installing their app now.
DoubleSix said:
NRS said:
Problem for universal employee is they probably don’t want to have their savings (shares) linked to the same place they have a job. Company goes down and the time you most need your savings is when they’re screwed. Better to sell and buy other shares most likely to balance risk.
You’d think so, but this almost never happens without firm guidance. I advise a lot of blue chip Execs as part of their package. The concentration risk is always present and there is often a resistance to diversify. Not tax driven as you might anticipate, just loyalty and a belief the company they chose to work for is unlikely to fail/stumble. This often carries through into retirement/redundancy.
Edited by DoubleSix on Tuesday 26th January 08:30
For the universal employee there is a lot of "fear" in doing that. The selling and taxation of those stocks is daunting, especially if this pushes them into self assessment.
And then there is the actual diversification element. Many find this as scary as the initial disposal, investing is something they don't understand.
It's really hard to balance the long term view vs the risk of holding a lot of your eggs in one basket. You see the stock price rising so don't want to lose that increasing value. But you also need to diversify.
I have seen much advice to sell RSU as soon as it vests. It's a fine line to balance.
NRS said:
vulture1 said:
Yes and this is where the "rich getting richer" quotes always come out. Your company doing well and you working hard for them gets you a 5% pay rise max. But your company doing well results in the share price rising by 10/ 20 50% so the shareholder does better.
Universal employee might even be lucky enough to work in a company that gives them shares. Universal employee "great free money sell sell sell" short term cash instead of thinking the long game.
I wish I had worked this out a long time ago.
Problem for universal employee is they probably don’t want to have their savings (shares) linked to the same place they have a job. Company goes down and the time you most need your savings is when they’re screwed. Better to sell and buy other shares most likely to balance risk.Universal employee might even be lucky enough to work in a company that gives them shares. Universal employee "great free money sell sell sell" short term cash instead of thinking the long game.
I wish I had worked this out a long time ago.
btdk5 said:
ATM said:
The Rotrex Kid said:
ATM said:
Has everyone seen what's happened to Game Stop?
I bought in yesterday at $109. I nearly cashed out at $158 but hesitated Hoping that the Redditors keep holding and it goes up a bit today. Even if I lose a little I can live with it!!
There’s some posts on Reddit of people with 25,000+ shares so there is some serious money at stake here!
It’s a fascinating story, like a mini soap opera.
Melvin capital heavily shorted and have basically gone bust.
Have a look at blackberrys share price too.....
Buy up shares, the prices goes up, other people buy in forcing the price even higher and then cash out?
The price goes up due to nothing than manipulation, just like Crypto.
Joey Deacon said:
btdk5 said:
ATM said:
The Rotrex Kid said:
ATM said:
Has everyone seen what's happened to Game Stop?
I bought in yesterday at $109. I nearly cashed out at $158 but hesitated Hoping that the Redditors keep holding and it goes up a bit today. Even if I lose a little I can live with it!!
There’s some posts on Reddit of people with 25,000+ shares so there is some serious money at stake here!
It’s a fascinating story, like a mini soap opera.
Melvin capital heavily shorted and have basically gone bust.
Have a look at blackberrys share price too.....
Buy up shares, the prices goes up, other people buy in forcing the price even higher and then cash out?
The price goes up due to nothing than manipulation, just like Crypto.
So if you dont know ahead of time what they will pump, you can short at [or around] the top and get in on the dump
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