Stock market is a "fully-fledged epic bubble" and will burst
Discussion
Agree with a lot of that DA but then you're into people wanting to get rich quick rather than perhaps focusing on getting rich slowly by avoiding big drawdowns which is considered boring?
I'm relatively new to investing but it's almost like people have forgotten (or never looked?) that historically compounding at 6-7% could be considered a really bloody good result v cash in the bank as it would double your money in 10 years.
But who who needs that when SMT or Baillie Gifford American or ARKK did it in a couple of years during an unprecedented pandemic because surely they must be able to do that forever so let's pile in.
Oh look a bubble
I'm relatively new to investing but it's almost like people have forgotten (or never looked?) that historically compounding at 6-7% could be considered a really bloody good result v cash in the bank as it would double your money in 10 years.
But who who needs that when SMT or Baillie Gifford American or ARKK did it in a couple of years during an unprecedented pandemic because surely they must be able to do that forever so let's pile in.
Oh look a bubble
Here’s more bubble.
https://spectrum.ieee.org/metaverse-real-estate
I just can’t fathom why people are paying any money for anything in this stuff.
It’s like URLs in the dot com boom.
But in that case, at least URLs *were* centralised, so that URL was it for the internet… if URLs even matter anymore.
Google will tell you all about the URL being irrelevant with search.
So what the flip are people doing paying money for a slice of a decentralised virtual real estate?
People aren’t even using these services yet. For all anyone knows one of an almost unlimited number of other services may provide the interface for this kinda thing.
Indeed the whole attraction here is that there is NO value in it beyond the serving cost… but idiots appear to be fighting over capturing it all in one place.
Let’s not forget how the ISP provided walled gardens fared, again, in the dot com boom.
It’s lunacy. Yield seeking in a world of no yields.
When there are no viable sustainable yields bearing inflation, is our economy really as healthy as we all believe?
s
t like this makes me lose a bit of faith in mankind.
Greed. To excess. An illness.
And with so many participants in that state of mind, the flip to fear will be a sight to behold.
Everyone going for the exit on worthless st at the same time… the ‘value’ that will evaporate in an instant will surely be systemic into real markets and the real economy.
https://spectrum.ieee.org/metaverse-real-estate
I just can’t fathom why people are paying any money for anything in this stuff.
It’s like URLs in the dot com boom.
But in that case, at least URLs *were* centralised, so that URL was it for the internet… if URLs even matter anymore.
Google will tell you all about the URL being irrelevant with search.
So what the flip are people doing paying money for a slice of a decentralised virtual real estate?
People aren’t even using these services yet. For all anyone knows one of an almost unlimited number of other services may provide the interface for this kinda thing.
Indeed the whole attraction here is that there is NO value in it beyond the serving cost… but idiots appear to be fighting over capturing it all in one place.
Let’s not forget how the ISP provided walled gardens fared, again, in the dot com boom.
It’s lunacy. Yield seeking in a world of no yields.
When there are no viable sustainable yields bearing inflation, is our economy really as healthy as we all believe?
s
t like this makes me lose a bit of faith in mankind.Greed. To excess. An illness.
And with so many participants in that state of mind, the flip to fear will be a sight to behold.
Everyone going for the exit on worthless s
t at the same time… the ‘value’ that will evaporate in an instant will surely be systemic into real markets and the real economy.Why have real real estate and all the hassle that entails when you can just buy virtual real estate and blame everyone else for you not owning a home? 
Real life is boring. It involves things like work and reality and having to tell the truth. Virtual life is way better. No need for any reality, no need to work and no need to have a relationship with truth.
Real life is boring. It involves things like work and reality and having to tell the truth. Virtual life is way better. No need for any reality, no need to work and no need to have a relationship with truth.
Decentraland meta-like virtual zones have a lot do with “online gambling”.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencie...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-01...
I do not know specifics but they have been recruiting loads of quants, I.T. in cyber-security and game designers recently.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencie...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-01...
I do not know specifics but they have been recruiting loads of quants, I.T. in cyber-security and game designers recently.
ooid said:
Decentraland meta-like virtual zones have a lot do with “online gambling”.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencie...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-01...
I do not know specifics but they have been recruiting loads of quants, I.T. in cyber-security and game designers recently.
So it’s like the old Tesla having more market cap than nearly every other car makers combined.https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencie...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-01...
I do not know specifics but they have been recruiting loads of quants, I.T. in cyber-security and game designers recently.
So the logic is it’ll displace all other manufacturers to justify today’s value… never mind people who think it’ll go up more.
Everyone now thinks ALL shops, gambling, recreation, cinema visits, god knows, will be done online, so meta/omni/cretin-verse must be worth £££ trillions
At best these services just disrupt and take a slice of a cut throat margin industry, which is sod all in the bigger picture.
The sooner VR disappears into obscurity again for 20 years the better.
I really don’t get the hype over its value, again… yes handy, yes quite cool, I love games and tech, but I’m not gonna sit like a vegetable at home on VR when I can get out and do ‘real life’ stuff.
Indeed I only know *one* person with a VR headset, and they won’t use Metaverse etc as they have kids and have no time to even play Half-life on it, never mind going on it to be advertised at.
Just how is there any momentum into this at all right now?
I’d love to see the pitches for capital investment at this stage.
Utterly bloody barmy. I’d invest in it, I’m sure it’ll be a thing, but it sounds like values are already utterly pie in the sky and just asking for wholesale 90%+ losses.
DonkeyApple said:
Why have real real estate and all the hassle that entails when you can just buy virtual real estate and blame everyone else for you not owning a home?
Real life is boring. It involves things like work and reality and having to tell the truth. Virtual life is way better. No need for any reality, no need to work and no need to have a relationship with truth.
I think that there's truth in that. With all that's going on, amongst other factors its quite possibly a little bit of an escape.Real life is boring. It involves things like work and reality and having to tell the truth. Virtual life is way better. No need for any reality, no need to work and no need to have a relationship with truth.
Wasn’t that last year, they noticed that around 70% of Apple App store revenues were coming from games (gambling and etc..).
I do not know clear mechanics of the gaming industry but it has always been associated with money laundering too (especially unlicensed ones) and virtual spaces like meta has obviously building on gambling firstly, the social aspect is different story. I realize loads of young designers/students also heavily on “NFT’ scene. It does kinda reminds me early 2000s, mp3 and electronic music scene of young producers trying to get big labels attentions. ( James Holden was a good example)
I do not know clear mechanics of the gaming industry but it has always been associated with money laundering too (especially unlicensed ones) and virtual spaces like meta has obviously building on gambling firstly, the social aspect is different story. I realize loads of young designers/students also heavily on “NFT’ scene. It does kinda reminds me early 2000s, mp3 and electronic music scene of young producers trying to get big labels attentions. ( James Holden was a good example
)Might be worth a watch, mentions Quality etf to avoid "too much leverage"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ddBuDF3SZY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ddBuDF3SZY
ooid said:
Wasn’t that last year, they noticed that around 70% of Apple App store revenues were coming from games (gambling and etc..).
I do not know clear mechanics of the gaming industry but it has always been associated with money laundering too (especially unlicensed ones) and virtual spaces like meta has obviously building on gambling firstly, the social aspect is different story. I realize loads of young designers/students also heavily on “NFT’ scene. It does kinda reminds me early 2000s, mp3 and electronic music scene of young producers trying to get big labels attentions. ( James Holden was a good example)
A friend’s first job out of university in the late 90s, having graduated with a computing related degree, was programming for gamblers.I do not know clear mechanics of the gaming industry but it has always been associated with money laundering too (especially unlicensed ones) and virtual spaces like meta has obviously building on gambling firstly, the social aspect is different story. I realize loads of young designers/students also heavily on “NFT’ scene. It does kinda reminds me early 2000s, mp3 and electronic music scene of young producers trying to get big labels attentions. ( James Holden was a good example
)He obviously excelled at the technicals and programming, but I think was surprised at the psychology and how the systems weren’t cheating per se, but would really play to the addictive tendencies to keep people gambling.
It is an oddity that we know it’s addictive and tell people to stop when it’s getting too far, but then the subversive design stops people being able to stop themselves.
It’s definitely an area though where regulation would kill the industry, because I’d say it makes the bulk of its money off addicts.
To think people are investing big in “vr internet” for gambling when it thrives on addicts, is a damning image of our society.
I hope ESG is avoiding it like the plague if that’s what it’s all about.
The thing about app gambling is that it completely circumnavigates local regulations so it has no need to comply with any rules or governance.
There seems to be a plethora of gambling apps based around normal online games at the moment. I'm actually surprised the app stores allow them.
It's never been easier to find fools and let them throw their money at you. It's all terribly depressing.
There seems to be a plethora of gambling apps based around normal online games at the moment. I'm actually surprised the app stores allow them.
It's never been easier to find fools and let them throw their money at you. It's all terribly depressing.
okgo said:
It’s ok though as Denise has chucked a mill at Ukraine and has paid a load of income tax again.
At least her business has to comply to laws and governance but the amount people are throwing at her when she is hobbled by having to run a legitimate gaming business does tend to suggest it's going to be a drop in the ocean compared to what's being made by the operators who have no such constraints. DonkeyApple said:
We do have this systemic risk of a generation of traders who firstly have been sold the concept of gambling as a rebranded form of investing. It's also a group that has not yet witnessed a real market but have a false sense of risk having grown up during a period where markets weren't allowed to fall. It shuns traditional markets due to an illusion over normal returns.
In many ways it is a group of middle income earners who have a low income earners attitude so places big bets hoping to change their lifestyle but the difference being they've not fully appreciated that they're gambling or that their lifestyle is already pretty awesome in comparative terms.
Very good post. Here is an example of the financial advice being handed out on TikTok for people to lap upIn many ways it is a group of middle income earners who have a low income earners attitude so places big bets hoping to change their lifestyle but the difference being they've not fully appreciated that they're gambling or that their lifestyle is already pretty awesome in comparative terms.
NRS said:
jakesmith said:
To be honest that is far better than I would expect!jakesmith said:
Very good post. Here is an example of the financial advice being handed out on TikTok for people to lap up
Similar to the stuff the penny punters have been posting since the late 90s on bulletin boards everytime one of their stocks sell off. They tell everyone else to not sell, hold the line and buy more. Back then the readership of things like 'Red Hot Penny Shares' was about 10-20,000 at its peak whereas today you've got millions of people punting. I guess it's part of human nature but is currently an epidemic. I think there is also another cultural shift at play from the U.K. perspective in that we never used to devoutly follow US behaviour but instead had our own culture and trends but today it does seem like many Britons see themselves as Americans in the way that developing nations would once latch dominantly onto US culture?
jakesmith said:
It’s hardly guaranteed that the market is going to go up. My guess is the exact opposite is about to happen. Lots of overvalued companies, consumer spending and therefore revenues about to drop etc
I can see the split between firms that generate cash and those that burn cash continuing to grow. Plus the split between firms reliant on excess consumers versus normal consumption. I'm not sure I see a full recession but certainly there are sectors which don't look healthy if the masses have less cash to hurl at unimportant goods and services?
DonkeyApple said:
jakesmith said:
Very good post. Here is an example of the financial advice being handed out on TikTok for people to lap up
Similar to the stuff the penny punters have been posting since the late 90s on bulletin boards everytime one of their stocks sell off. They tell everyone else to not sell, hold the line and buy more. Back then the readership of things like 'Red Hot Penny Shares' was about 10-20,000 at its peak whereas today you've got millions of people punting. I guess it's part of human nature but is currently an epidemic. I think there is also another cultural shift at play from the U.K. perspective in that we never used to devoutly follow US behaviour but instead had our own culture and trends but today it does seem like many Britons see themselves as Americans in the way that developing nations would once latch dominantly onto US culture?
Thumbsnap’s compression has nuked the legibility on one chart, but either they managed to screengrab their respective charts at the exact same value (to 8 decimal places) or they were just reposting what they were sent
emicen said:
DonkeyApple said:
jakesmith said:
Very good post. Here is an example of the financial advice being handed out on TikTok for people to lap up
Similar to the stuff the penny punters have been posting since the late 90s on bulletin boards everytime one of their stocks sell off. They tell everyone else to not sell, hold the line and buy more. Back then the readership of things like 'Red Hot Penny Shares' was about 10-20,000 at its peak whereas today you've got millions of people punting. I guess it's part of human nature but is currently an epidemic. I think there is also another cultural shift at play from the U.K. perspective in that we never used to devoutly follow US behaviour but instead had our own culture and trends but today it does seem like many Britons see themselves as Americans in the way that developing nations would once latch dominantly onto US culture?
Thumbsnap’s compression has nuked the legibility on one chart, but either they managed to screengrab their respective charts at the exact same value (to 8 decimal places) or they were just reposting what they were sent
emicen said:
Similar to the crypto realm’s latest wheeze of having Insta influencers utilising their fake boobs and vapid mushes to shill the latest schittcoin but not even having the sense to send them different charts to pretend are their own
Thumbsnap’s compression has nuked the legibility on one chart, but either they managed to screengrab their respective charts at the exact same value (to 8 decimal places) or they were just reposting what they were sent
There's a whole section of society that will willingly lie and defraud for a few shekels. You can usually spot them as they bang on loudly about integrity and honesty all the time. Thumbsnap’s compression has nuked the legibility on one chart, but either they managed to screengrab their respective charts at the exact same value (to 8 decimal places) or they were just reposting what they were sent
The said truth is that Fiver.com showed the world years ago that vast numbers of people will knowingly help defraud friends and family for as little as $5.
Much of social media is just one enormous, global flat roof pub full of insecure, dishonest little Shylocks desperate to flog the modern equivalent of stolen car stereos to people who didn't pay any attention at school. All while wanting Pete Burns' face and Jimmy Savile's wardrobe.
Luckily, I'm pretty confident that it's still a sub culture and that the majority of people do see through it and realise it's just a global chavplosion of the non workers, grifters, shills and deluded.
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