Stock market is a "fully-fledged epic bubble" and will burst
Discussion
mike74 said:
Jon39 said:
You have reminded me of a Tommy Cooper joke.
Patient - "Doctor, I have broken my arm in three places."
Doctor - "Well, don't go to those places."
It's crashed across plenty of sectors.
Well, don't get involved with those sectors.
You could try one of my favourite sectors, non-cyclicals. Quite boring, but often steady and fewer downward movements.
Today, FTSE 100 ........................ down 2.32%.
My main non-cyclical holding ........ up 0.06%
Another non-cyclical holding ......... up 1.51%
Many took a bashing of course, oils especially, but having risers on a down day, often occurs with non-cyclicals.
Abysmal under performance from that particular fund this year suggests non-cyclicals aren't always safe and steady.
Derek Chevalier said:
DaveA8 said:
It never ceases to amaze me how these buildings get filled
Maybe cheaper than the west end and more "soul" than canary wharf, and better quality/value than existing buildings in the area?bmwmike said:
funinhounslow said:
How else are you supposed to invest in the stock market if you earn a salary?
I suspect the overwhelming majority of “drip feeders” are like me - have set up a direct debit to go into an ISA/SIPP the day after payday…
Yep or salary sacrifice into a SIPP. I suspect the overwhelming majority of “drip feeders” are like me - have set up a direct debit to go into an ISA/SIPP the day after payday…
FWIW the GBP is down 12% YoY to USD.
The paradox is that people trying to manage getting 'in and out' of the market seldom do well. As others here say, without actual knowledge, you are simply gambling.
Amazon stock nearly tapping on the door of pre-Covid levels. Apple still +100% pre-covid - doubt it'll get back to $80 but i wouldn't want to bet against it doing another -25%. These stocks are such a big chunk of the S&P500 that it's making my purchase of S&P500 in December last year looking a little sorry for itself. Not selling. 
My wife said about moving her last 25pc of pension to cash but I said probably no point now.
Risk vs reward definitely more fuzzy now.
I’d expected a stronger dead cat bounce but it just seems to be going worse to worse.
My gut feeling is that the big Western CBs want this. They see runaway salary inflation as a bigger risk than a big asset crash, so assets are taking the hit.
I’m glad I averaged out increasingly aggressively with the Fed being increasingly tight with their meetings starting Nov21.
Risk vs reward definitely more fuzzy now.
I’d expected a stronger dead cat bounce but it just seems to be going worse to worse.
My gut feeling is that the big Western CBs want this. They see runaway salary inflation as a bigger risk than a big asset crash, so assets are taking the hit.
I’m glad I averaged out increasingly aggressively with the Fed being increasingly tight with their meetings starting Nov21.
ooid said:
Derek Chevalier said:
DaveA8 said:
It never ceases to amaze me how these buildings get filled
Maybe cheaper than the west end and more "soul" than canary wharf, and better quality/value than existing buildings in the area?
bmwmike said:
Curious to know what some of our resident professional IFA's are doing in terms of their own pots such as SIPP or perhaps ISA's?
Nothing has changed in the family financial plan, so therefore I don't see any need for changes on the investment front, other than periodic reviews to ensure the products are still suitable (and given the investment market is mature/commoditised, changes don't happen very often). Very boring, but boring tends to work over the long term (multi-decades), even though it's possible to suffer from FOMO
over the short term (as we have seen with the large-cap growth valuations over the last decade (and a decade is a relatively short term when it comes to investing)). Derek Chevalier said:
bmwmike said:
Curious to know what some of our resident professional IFA's are doing in terms of their own pots such as SIPP or perhaps ISA's?
Nothing has changed in the family financial plan, so therefore I don't see any need for changes on the investment front, other than periodic reviews to ensure the products are still suitable (and given the investment market is mature/commoditised, changes don't happen very often). Very boring, but boring tends to work over the long term (multi-decades), even though it's possible to suffer from FOMO
over the short term (as we have seen with the large-cap growth valuations over the last decade (and a decade is a relatively short term when it comes to investing)). bmwmike said:
So what's everyone doing - everyone sold out into cash and sit it out then? Or rebalancing? Or nothing and keep buying?
Curious to know what some of our resident professional IFA's are doing in terms of their own pots such as SIPP or perhaps ISA's?
Curious to know what some of our resident professional IFA's are doing in terms of their own pots such as SIPP or perhaps ISA's?
Happy to answer, Mike.
As usual, I am not doing anything. Holding continues unchanged.
I have not analysed to see which are the falling sectors/businesses, so know little about what is going down.
NASDAQ has been in the news, as well as some of the US new wonder companies.
Is the US more affected than UK, because last Fridays close in London was YTD, 100 Index +0.05% and All-Share -2.96% ?
Therefore almost no change so far this year.
One of your questions I can answer. No, not buying. Don't need to, but might be tempted if the market goes way down.
I don't hold any 'racier' shares, but always have several oils, which of course have been the drivers of my portfolio this year.
The top four last Friday were three oils and a tobacco, with YTD increases between 20.7% and 44.6%.
I note a group of bank holdings are down, although HSBC was an exception, up 11.9%, but I am only concerned about the overall portfolio percentage.
Yesterday and today, two more announcements of resumed dividends, so confidence there.
Overall + 16.20%. Thrilled with that at present.
With inflation; materials shortages; rising interest rates (mortgages) and war, all happening at once, surely that must lead to economic trouble for us.
My summary would be, I am happy to sit out whatever happens, but have no idea what will happen.
Sorry. Probably of no help at all. -
Edited by Jon39 on Thursday 12th May 12:04
bmwmike said:
So what's everyone doing - everyone sold out into cash and sit it out then? Or rebalancing? Or nothing and keep buying?
Curious to know what some of our resident professional IFA's are doing in terms of their own pots such as SIPP or perhaps ISA's?
I was in my 30s when I was speaking with an experienced fund manager in 1986 just after Big-Bang. He went on-and-on about how the 1970s were so very difficult. The only thing they had in the office were basic adding machines, or, if lucky a Sinclair calculator. They simply read the FT and thought “ Oh sCurious to know what some of our resident professional IFA's are doing in terms of their own pots such as SIPP or perhaps ISA's?
t” In 1986, he had a flashy computer (no Windows) and thought he knew everything.Of course in October 1987, Black Friday happened and he still thought “Oh s
t” we did not see that coming.I am now in my 70th year and just feel that I have been here before, nothing much changes.
Spread the risk, do not listen to salesman - for that is what they are. If you simply want a sound investment, go to a reputable company and spread the risk as much as reasonable.
Stuff will always happen, but stick with your aims - don't plan on being a millionaire, but, over time, you just might become one.
speedy_thrills said:
Cash and Australasian banks mostly.
My main hope from this is this is the last time we hear "crypto" or "ESG" for a very long time.
Yes, be very nice if we never hear from the Crypto and Forex YouTubers convincing people that they can get rich by not doing very much. I think this is half the problem, the stock market has effectively been turned into a casino, mostly due to the massive increase in value of technology stocks, often based on nothing at all.My main hope from this is this is the last time we hear "crypto" or "ESG" for a very long time.
It is clear that all the money printed during the pandemic to try and control an uncontrollable virus is a large part of what has caused this. Trouble is what do you do with your money, the other issue is that inflation is eroding it at 10% even if you decide to hold cash.
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