Currency collapse, debt bubble and hyperinflation - worried?
Discussion
Fittster said:
Once you give up on experts you are simply left listening to nutty conspiracy theorists and loudmouths.
If that's true, then if Fittster is not an expert, he is by his own definition be a nutty conspiracy theorist and loudmouth. I'm sure you're not.One has to take expert opinions and blend them into a workable solution. That is why Nobel prize-winners don't run countries.
Mr Whippy said:
btdk5 said:
Mr Whippy said:
I think governments have painted themselves into a corner with QE, basically using debt to fill out the GDP of a full cycle.
The next round of QE is being called ‘build back green’ or ‘build back better’
And ‘covid19 support’
It’s all just the next round of stimulus, with the reasons being ‘virus’ and ‘environment’... rather than ‘government incompetence’ or ‘greedy billionaires’
No one knows the outcome of all this. They’re just steering a car on a big patch of black ice in thick fog.
We could crash, or keep on skidding, or come out to sunshine in full control.
Hedge accordingly.
People said exactly the same after 2008 and what happened? One of the longest bull runs in history.The next round of QE is being called ‘build back green’ or ‘build back better’
And ‘covid19 support’
It’s all just the next round of stimulus, with the reasons being ‘virus’ and ‘environment’... rather than ‘government incompetence’ or ‘greedy billionaires’
No one knows the outcome of all this. They’re just steering a car on a big patch of black ice in thick fog.
We could crash, or keep on skidding, or come out to sunshine in full control.
Hedge accordingly.
And no one front ran that bull run. It wasn’t priced in. No one knew what would happen.
Had everyone seen that coming we’d all be millionaires today.
Feel free to gamble assuming the markets have seen the future correctly, there won’t be a crash, and the next ten years will be another never ending bull run.
Feel free to sit on the sidelines and miss the upside worrying.
btdk5 said:
Long term investing isn’t a gamble, especially when you pound cost average.
Feel free to sit on the sidelines and miss the upside worrying.
I have been an investor through the dot com boom and crash, the credit crunch, Brexit, Covid and no doubt other major market events that I've forgotten.Feel free to sit on the sidelines and miss the upside worrying.
Each time it seemed like the end of western economy was upon us and 'this time it's different'.
But throughout all of these I stayed invested (in global equities) and I'm glad I did.
Mr Whippy said:
No one knew what would happen.
Had everyone seen that coming we’d all be millionaires today.
Feel free to gamble assuming the markets have seen the future correctly, there won’t be a crash, and the next ten years will be another never ending bull run.
What is the alternative? You can buy assets (stocks/shares/bonds/houses etc) and take confidence from the fact that over centuraries they have over the long term always outperformed cash, or you can sit with cash which is losing value in real terms. Had everyone seen that coming we’d all be millionaires today.
Feel free to gamble assuming the markets have seen the future correctly, there won’t be a crash, and the next ten years will be another never ending bull run.
Even if you accept that nobody knows, surely you play the odds?
btdk5 said:
Mr Whippy said:
btdk5 said:
Mr Whippy said:
I think governments have painted themselves into a corner with QE, basically using debt to fill out the GDP of a full cycle.
The next round of QE is being called ‘build back green’ or ‘build back better’
And ‘covid19 support’
It’s all just the next round of stimulus, with the reasons being ‘virus’ and ‘environment’... rather than ‘government incompetence’ or ‘greedy billionaires’
No one knows the outcome of all this. They’re just steering a car on a big patch of black ice in thick fog.
We could crash, or keep on skidding, or come out to sunshine in full control.
Hedge accordingly.
People said exactly the same after 2008 and what happened? One of the longest bull runs in history.The next round of QE is being called ‘build back green’ or ‘build back better’
And ‘covid19 support’
It’s all just the next round of stimulus, with the reasons being ‘virus’ and ‘environment’... rather than ‘government incompetence’ or ‘greedy billionaires’
No one knows the outcome of all this. They’re just steering a car on a big patch of black ice in thick fog.
We could crash, or keep on skidding, or come out to sunshine in full control.
Hedge accordingly.
And no one front ran that bull run. It wasn’t priced in. No one knew what would happen.
Had everyone seen that coming we’d all be millionaires today.
Feel free to gamble assuming the markets have seen the future correctly, there won’t be a crash, and the next ten years will be another never ending bull run.
Feel free to sit on the sidelines and miss the upside worrying.
Condi said:
Mr Whippy said:
No one knew what would happen.
Had everyone seen that coming we’d all be millionaires today.
Feel free to gamble assuming the markets have seen the future correctly, there won’t be a crash, and the next ten years will be another never ending bull run.
What is the alternative? You can buy assets (stocks/shares/bonds/houses etc) and take confidence from the fact that over centuraries they have over the long term always outperformed cash, or you can sit with cash which is losing value in real terms. Had everyone seen that coming we’d all be millionaires today.
Feel free to gamble assuming the markets have seen the future correctly, there won’t be a crash, and the next ten years will be another never ending bull run.
Even if you accept that nobody knows, surely you play the odds?
Anyone who has gone all in assuming “missing out on a 10 year bull run” is who I was directing my point at.
In 2009/10 no one was positioned all in stocks knowing we’d have 10 years of bull run.
Indeed we saw lots of pull backs and assuming no more QE, but on it went.
People assuming these high values are the low starting point in a new debt fuelled decade long bull run are taking a big leap of imagination.
We might now see a decade of slow declines, deflation, and money pumping to stimulate with no effect, with hyperinflation in 2030.
Who knows.
As said, driving a car on black ice in thick fog. If you believe anyone can see further than the end of the bonnet you’re deluding yourself.
In any case anyone should know driving on black ice in thick fog is dangerous. Cash, dangerous. Stocks, dangerous. Bonds, dangerous. Property, dangerous. Everything is dangerous.
So hedge accordingly.
Mr Whippy said:
In any case anyone should know driving on black ice in thick fog is dangerous. Cash, dangerous. Stocks, dangerous. Bonds, dangerous. Property, dangerous. Everything is dangerous.
So hedge accordingly.
With what is the million dollar question.So hedge accordingly.
I'm a normal retail investor and I've got allocations to cash, stocks, index linked bonds, property, bitcoin, gold.
Didn't seem to matter this week
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hstewie said:
hstewie said:Mr Whippy said:
In any case anyone should know driving on black ice in thick fog is dangerous. Cash, dangerous. Stocks, dangerous. Bonds, dangerous. Property, dangerous. Everything is dangerous.
So hedge accordingly.
With what is the million dollar question.So hedge accordingly.
I'm a normal retail investor and I've got allocations to cash, stocks, index linked bonds, property, bitcoin, gold.
Didn't seem to matter this week
I’m similar to you, but with property too. So this week’s news of potentially massive stimulus for banks and debt if you’re borrowing to buy houses seems very bullish.
I’m very worried when government are basically playing “everyone (we choose) is a WINNER!!!” with different asset classes, arbitrarily.
No one is saying housing needs a bailout. Indeed the idea this will help first time buyers is a clear lie as it’ll just push the price floor up tomorrow and that’s that.
This is just direct government manipulation of property stocks at the cost of the very future generation they’re supposedly helping, who’ll pay for it all in future taxation.
It’s quite sickening really.
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