Discussion
limpsfield said:
I think the mistake that many make is being far too short term. The illusion that with 10 minutes work a day and a couple of clicks of the mouse you can make a few hundred quid, piece of cake. Some can - the vast, vast majority don't - you are right to not believe the hype.
For me, trading it over the longer term - days/weeks/sometimes months is the better way. Take a look at something like GBPUSD there have been some great medium to longer term moves in that over the last year.
Having worked in and around the trading/brokerage business for the past couple of decades the current gamification/ mass market push of it of it all really gets my goat - but then I am an old fart.
Cheers for that. If you're looking at trading something like GBPUSD over the long term, I presume that would be more fundamental analysis (news, forecasts etc) rather than looking at the charts via technical analysis?For me, trading it over the longer term - days/weeks/sometimes months is the better way. Take a look at something like GBPUSD there have been some great medium to longer term moves in that over the last year.
Having worked in and around the trading/brokerage business for the past couple of decades the current gamification/ mass market push of it of it all really gets my goat - but then I am an old fart.
s1962a said:
All well and good fellas, but getting back to the original question again, are there any low risk low reward strategies for fx that might return a few basis points (taking the spread into account) or does no such strategy exist and it's all luck/gambling?
I'm fine with fundamental analysis on equities and futures, but forex just seems so illogical.
I don't trade Forex because it's too volatile, and I can't wrap my head around the correlation between currencies and how to profit from the difference.I'm fine with fundamental analysis on equities and futures, but forex just seems so illogical.
If you want low risk and low rewards try writing options to collect the premium using probability.
flashbang said:
Don1 said:
Remember signals are not just for traffic lights! All you need are skinny jeans, a sleeve tattoo and no other experience. You'll be making fousands in no time. In fact, so much money you will have to resort to storing it in bizarre locations...
s1962a said:
Cheers for that. If you're looking at trading something like GBPUSD over the long term, I presume that would be more fundamental analysis (news, forecasts etc) rather than looking at the charts via technical analysis?
Technical analysis tells you with 100% accuracy what has already happened, it can't foretell the future.For example. It rained on Monday, got heavier on Tuesday and even heavier on Wednesday.
Does this mean that you can predict that on Thursday you will have a torrential downpour?
NMNeil said:
s1962a said:
Cheers for that. If you're looking at trading something like GBPUSD over the long term, I presume that would be more fundamental analysis (news, forecasts etc) rather than looking at the charts via technical analysis?
Technical analysis tells you with 100% accuracy what has already happened, it can't foretell the future.For example. It rained on Monday, got heavier on Tuesday and even heavier on Wednesday.
Does this mean that you can predict that on Thursday you will have a torrential downpour?
NMNeil said:
s1962a said:
All well and good fellas, but getting back to the original question again, are there any low risk low reward strategies for fx that might return a few basis points (taking the spread into account) or does no such strategy exist and it's all luck/gambling?
I'm fine with fundamental analysis on equities and futures, but forex just seems so illogical.
I don't trade Forex because it's too volatile, and I can't wrap my head around the correlation between currencies and how to profit from the difference.I'm fine with fundamental analysis on equities and futures, but forex just seems so illogical.
If you want low risk and low rewards try writing options to collect the premium using probability.
s1962a said:
All well and good fellas, but getting back to the original question again, are there any low risk low reward strategies for fx that might return a few basis points (taking the spread into account) or does no such strategy exist and it's all luck/gambling?
I'm fine with fundamental analysis on equities and futures, but forex just seems so illogical.
Without wishing to sound rude, why would you bother undertaking fundamental analysis when there are thousands of people out there that do it full time? Unless it's an excuse to avoid talking to the Mrs?I'm fine with fundamental analysis on equities and futures, but forex just seems so illogical.
putonghua73 said:
I remember reading that 90% of people fail because the vast majority of people want fast money, without putting in the necessary study / work.
If you are genuinely interested, before signing up to any courses provided by people of dubious providence, check out Anton Kreil's company 'Institute of Trading and Portfolio Management' on YouTube. The ITPM provide lots of information for you to assess whether Forex trading is for you. One of the key notables is that Kreil's lifestyle YT posts get hundreds of thousands of views, yet the ones where he sets out a framework of forex i.e. financial history, market structure, currency pairs, volatility, etc, gets less than ten thousand (people want fast money).
I believe I recall that Kriel mentioned that ITPM trades are based on 80% fundamental analysis [FA], and a maximum of 20% technical analysis [TA].
Even if you decide not to choose ITPM (no recommendation from me as I do not trade forex), the ITPM put out a lot of useful information to develop a basic understanding of the common pitfalls and traps (dubious claims, training companies taking the other side of your position, conflict of interest), and information to help you decide whether forex trading is for you.
If he had something that worked why would he let you access it? If you are genuinely interested, before signing up to any courses provided by people of dubious providence, check out Anton Kreil's company 'Institute of Trading and Portfolio Management' on YouTube. The ITPM provide lots of information for you to assess whether Forex trading is for you. One of the key notables is that Kreil's lifestyle YT posts get hundreds of thousands of views, yet the ones where he sets out a framework of forex i.e. financial history, market structure, currency pairs, volatility, etc, gets less than ten thousand (people want fast money).
I believe I recall that Kriel mentioned that ITPM trades are based on 80% fundamental analysis [FA], and a maximum of 20% technical analysis [TA].
Even if you decide not to choose ITPM (no recommendation from me as I do not trade forex), the ITPM put out a lot of useful information to develop a basic understanding of the common pitfalls and traps (dubious claims, training companies taking the other side of your position, conflict of interest), and information to help you decide whether forex trading is for you.
NMNeil said:
BarryGibb said:
What type of options?
Stock options. I looked at commodities, but for my trading style I keep to stock options with a contrarian leaning.
https://kjtradingsystems.com/steamroller-penny-tra...
There was a guy on YouTube a few years ago with the same name as a decent Hull City footballer.
He suckered in a few of my wife's family. They really believed what he said and wouldn't heed any warnings. They became very argumentative when challenged on the veracity of the Youtubers claims.
My father-in-law quickly lost £40K over a few trades and FOREX has never been mentioned again.
He suckered in a few of my wife's family. They really believed what he said and wouldn't heed any warnings. They became very argumentative when challenged on the veracity of the Youtubers claims.
My father-in-law quickly lost £40K over a few trades and FOREX has never been mentioned again.
BarryGibb said:
What strategy are you using for writing options that minimises risk? Isn't this picking up pennies in front of a steamroller?
https://kjtradingsystems.com/steamroller-penny-tra...
An example, nothing more, this is not advice on this stock, just how I've traded it in the past.https://kjtradingsystems.com/steamroller-penny-tra...
Beyond Meat. (BYND)
They make a fake meat product, and in January were trading at around $160. They announced a deal with McDonalds, and the price shot up to over $200.
I kept an eye on the SP, and when it began to falter and I started seeing negative reviews of the burgers with the fake meat, I wrote and sold some $250 February call options that had a 25% probability of making it to $250, and received about $1500 in premium into my escrow account.
This is the important part.
If there is a 25% probability that the price will get over $250 then there's also a 75% probability that the price would stay below $250.
The SP never made it anywhere near the $250; the options expired worthless and I got to keep the $1500.
ker on the Gram. s1962a said:
limpsfield said:
I think the mistake that many make is being far too short term. The illusion that with 10 minutes work a day and a couple of clicks of the mouse you can make a few hundred quid, piece of cake. Some can - the vast, vast majority don't - you are right to not believe the hype.
For me, trading it over the longer term - days/weeks/sometimes months is the better way. Take a look at something like GBPUSD there have been some great medium to longer term moves in that over the last year.
Having worked in and around the trading/brokerage business for the past couple of decades the current gamification/ mass market push of it of it all really gets my goat - but then I am an old fart.
Cheers for that. If you're looking at trading something like GBPUSD over the long term, I presume that would be more fundamental analysis (news, forecasts etc) rather than looking at the charts via technical analysis?For me, trading it over the longer term - days/weeks/sometimes months is the better way. Take a look at something like GBPUSD there have been some great medium to longer term moves in that over the last year.
Having worked in and around the trading/brokerage business for the past couple of decades the current gamification/ mass market push of it of it all really gets my goat - but then I am an old fart.
But don't forget most lose. I think if you started doing it today and had never done it before, if in a year's time your account has the same amount of money in as you started with, you are beating more than 7 out of 10 people. It's not a get rich quick scheme, as I am sure you appreciate.
Forex Trading can be very tough. Equally there are periods where longer term trends develop and it can be an easier market to trade. Just remember there are plenty of people doing it for a living out there and many professionals will lose money. Retail guys don't have the benefit of seeing big flows that the banks get and don't have the liquidity offered to Hedge Funds.
Most of the very short term moves will be dominated by technicals and that in itself is a full-time job. Longer term views based on macro-fundamentals require a wider stop and stronger stomach and therefore size has to be limited further to be able to remain liquid. And fundamentals get horribly distorted by flows - markets can remain distorted for way longer than most guys can remain liquid.
With respect to writing options, I would humbly suggest that this is the very last place a retail guy should trade. To be able to do it consistently it requires very different skills and complete discipline around losses.
Most of the very short term moves will be dominated by technicals and that in itself is a full-time job. Longer term views based on macro-fundamentals require a wider stop and stronger stomach and therefore size has to be limited further to be able to remain liquid. And fundamentals get horribly distorted by flows - markets can remain distorted for way longer than most guys can remain liquid.
With respect to writing options, I would humbly suggest that this is the very last place a retail guy should trade. To be able to do it consistently it requires very different skills and complete discipline around losses.
To have a better risk-weighted profit than a straight gamble you need to have better / more information than the market has priced in. The key to that is an inefficient market. There are few things that are more liquid or efficient than the major currency pairs, making them a bad choice.
Better / more information can be from all manner of sources - you are intrinsically a better judge of the facts than the market (unlikely); you have inside information (generally illegal); you have researched more than the market (fairly rare); etc.
Your goal is to find and exploit inefficiency. When / if you find it, and the risk-weighting makes it a great trade, go for it and make it count. It doesn’t happen that often.
Better / more information can be from all manner of sources - you are intrinsically a better judge of the facts than the market (unlikely); you have inside information (generally illegal); you have researched more than the market (fairly rare); etc.
Your goal is to find and exploit inefficiency. When / if you find it, and the risk-weighting makes it a great trade, go for it and make it count. It doesn’t happen that often.
TurboTerrific9 said:
With respect to writing options, I would humbly suggest that this is the very last place a retail guy should trade. To be able to do it consistently it requires very different skills and complete discipline around losses.
True, but by being a contrarian and trading on probabilities, your chances of profitability are far higher.Remember, a stock price never crashes upwards.
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