Your questions answered Vol 2 - IM Private Clients
Discussion
Jon39 said:
Am I right, that on here it is all about funds, not self constructed equity portfolios ?
This forum covers many things but the current one is 'IM Technology', a new portfolio (not fund) of - IIRC - 15 tech stocks. The disconnect was 'If all these companies are so good why are they going down?' The factor missing was sentiment. Everything was factored in except sentiment.Jon39 said:
If all the professional analysts and market makers are looking at the same numbers that Adam is... what other factor/s are they all missing'.
They have different incentives from us John. Analysts work for companies which earn their living from fees and commissions. The more transactions they can encourage, the better for them. So there are not missing factors. Have you noticed how analysts usually recommend more buys than sells?
In the case of IM I'm confident they don't skew their work for fees over performance. But I think an analyst can only analyse the quantifiable. He can't analyse sentiment because it's not a number, only a hunch. You and I can play hunches, but that's not on an analyst's horizon. That's when you need talent, or inspiration, call it what you will, the ability and confidence to step away from the numbers if an opportunity presents itself, and position to exploit it. That's where JPH comes in. I'm not that clever or informed; I can scent a wind of change but can't define it sufficiently to connect it to investments. I'm just a dog smelling a BBQ in the next garden They have different incentives from us John. Analysts work for companies which earn their living from fees and commissions. The more transactions they can encourage, the better for them. So there are not missing factors. Have you noticed how analysts usually recommend more buys than sells?
Simpo Two said:
This forum covers many things but the current one is 'IM Technology', a new portfolio (not fund) of - IIRC - 15 tech stocks. The disconnect was 'If all these companies are so good why are they going down?' The factor missing was sentiment. Everything was factored in except sentiment.
When you say good companies, are they steadily growing their profits year by year, have share prices which are sensible multiples of their annual earnings, etc. ?
When finding companies that achieve steady and sustained growth, their share prices will eventually move up, but in the meantime, the stock market 'casino players' will move the share price all over the place.
Talking of tech., which I mostly stay away from, it always reminds me of 1998-1999, the Dot Com Bubble. Even BT was considered a tech business and up went their share price. I don't think their shares have ever recovered to the 1999 level !
You might be a young gentleman and not investing at that time, but it was obvious to anyone who just took a step back, that tiny loss making start up tech businesses, were not worth the sky high valuations. The casino activity began and fund managers and investors did not want to be left behind. They pushed up prices further, but I did not get involved. Therefore, for two years I did not keep up with the market performance. When the tech crash came though, the traditional businesses I was holding, were suddenly in demand and I zoomed off once again. Lots of investor losses and company failures occurred. The other point being, with so many new tech businesses at that time, there might have been one big future winner, but the chance of picking that one was very slim and pure luck.
Simpo Two said:
Jon39 said:
Am I right, that on here it is all about funds, not self constructed equity portfolios ?
This forum covers many things but the current one is 'IM Technology', a new portfolio (not fund) of - IIRC - 15 tech stocks. The disconnect was 'If all these companies are so good why are they going down?' The factor missing was sentiment. Everything was factored in except sentiment.Jon39 said:
If all the professional analysts and market makers are looking at the same numbers that Adam is... what other factor/s are they all missing'.
They have different incentives from us John. Analysts work for companies which earn their living from fees and commissions. The more transactions they can encourage, the better for them. So there are not missing factors. Have you noticed how analysts usually recommend more buys than sells?
In the case of IM I'm confident they don't skew their work for fees over performance. But I think an analyst can only analyse the quantifiable. He can't analyse sentiment because it's not a number, only a hunch. You and I can play hunches, but that's not on an analyst's horizon. That's when you need talent, or inspiration, call it what you will, the ability and confidence to step away from the numbers if an opportunity presents itself, and position to exploit it. That's where JPH comes in. I'm not that clever or informed; I can scent a wind of change but can't define it sufficiently to connect it to investments. I'm just a dog smelling a BBQ in the next garden They have different incentives from us John. Analysts work for companies which earn their living from fees and commissions. The more transactions they can encourage, the better for them. So there are not missing factors. Have you noticed how analysts usually recommend more buys than sells?
IM disclose so much information,. Wearing heart on sleeve springs to mind.
And Twilio reported just now and the numbers look good to me. Beating by 21c is a win. No idea what the reaction will be. Edited to add up 6% intraday, reported great numbers, dropped 18% in first moments then recovered to +4% in the after hours session. So intraday a 24% swing to the negative, countered by a 28% reversal. I suspect this wild swing is nothing more than someone entering an incorrect trade. It happens periodically. You may have read about a 'flash crash' before.
Edited by AdamIM on Thursday 5th May 09:44
Edited by AdamIM on Thursday 5th May 09:51
Hi All,
Vertex Pharma hands in its report card after close tonight. They have a very solid business and have been particularly resilient during the recent turmoil.
When we wanted to add exposure to Biotech/Pharma, whilst we identified a few potential candidates, the very nature of the industry is characterised by huge cash spend on research/trials (100's of millions) in the hope of finding a new 'Blockbuster' drug, a drug that returns north of $1B in revenue. A very Boom/Bust, more risky environment. Get it right and happy days, get it wrong and many of these businesses go bust or need to raise further capital. Vertex already has its Blockbuster pipeline and they generate a lot of cash, which allows them to support ongoing research.
The main drugs are Trikafta+ Symdeko+Orkambi(patents for +15 years), cystic fibrosis treatments which generates $6B in revenues annually, and growing. Each is more suitable for different patient age groups.
The company have other potential drugs in the pipeline, at various trial stages, including gene replacement therapies which, if successful would be transformative in creating 'new medicine'. Being able to replace faulty genes or add new ones such that the body can fight disease without drugs. Vertex hires the very brightest minds and is making good progress in these areas and whilst it could take years to bring to market, they can lean on their substantial blockbuster drugs to continue growing.
Vertex has a history of 20% annual earnings growth and trades at a very reasonable PE of 15.
The market expects adjusted Q1/2022 EPS of $3.54 and Revenue of $2.01B
Vertex Pharma hands in its report card after close tonight. They have a very solid business and have been particularly resilient during the recent turmoil.
When we wanted to add exposure to Biotech/Pharma, whilst we identified a few potential candidates, the very nature of the industry is characterised by huge cash spend on research/trials (100's of millions) in the hope of finding a new 'Blockbuster' drug, a drug that returns north of $1B in revenue. A very Boom/Bust, more risky environment. Get it right and happy days, get it wrong and many of these businesses go bust or need to raise further capital. Vertex already has its Blockbuster pipeline and they generate a lot of cash, which allows them to support ongoing research.
The main drugs are Trikafta+ Symdeko+Orkambi(patents for +15 years), cystic fibrosis treatments which generates $6B in revenues annually, and growing. Each is more suitable for different patient age groups.
The company have other potential drugs in the pipeline, at various trial stages, including gene replacement therapies which, if successful would be transformative in creating 'new medicine'. Being able to replace faulty genes or add new ones such that the body can fight disease without drugs. Vertex hires the very brightest minds and is making good progress in these areas and whilst it could take years to bring to market, they can lean on their substantial blockbuster drugs to continue growing.
Vertex has a history of 20% annual earnings growth and trades at a very reasonable PE of 15.
The market expects adjusted Q1/2022 EPS of $3.54 and Revenue of $2.01B
Jon39 said:
You might be a young gentleman and not investing at that time, but it was obvious to anyone who just took a step back, that tiny loss making start up tech businesses, were not worth the sky high valuations.
Oh yep I was in the dot com bubble. Except in those days I thought my IFA would look after everything because, well, he knew all about money and investing didn't he. So I lost a chunk, he sent me a bill for his services and was swiftly dispatched. The concept of profit-taking had never entered his little head of course, he just wanted to sell stuff. But I know this now.It is much harder to sell than to buy, I find. Especially with CGT calcs to consider!
AdamIM said:
Vertex Pharma hands in its report card after close tonight. They have a very solid business and have been particularly resilient during the recent turmoil.
When we wanted to add exposure to Biotech/Pharma, whilst we identified a few potential candidates...
Very interesting; it's an area that appeals to me, perhaps as my degree is biology so I can understand the lingo.When we wanted to add exposure to Biotech/Pharma, whilst we identified a few potential candidates...
I've felt that the IM Tech portfolio has much overlap with others, so a Bio/Pharma leaning might keep the 'interest' but differentiated Keep going
Edited by Simpo Two on Thursday 5th May 10:10
On yesterdays big spike in the markets.
Fed chairman Jay Powell soothed fear of much bigger and earlier rate rises. Consensus was for 75bps but in fact they got 50 with a comment from the man himself 'we chose not to use the nuclear option', presumably because the market has already suffered enough volatility from the near term unknown of more hawkish rate policy. He also described the US job market as hot-record unemployment (so much for recession) but he wants to balance this with inflation.
There are signs that inflation is starting to abate in certain sectors of the economy and clearly the ideal scenario is a halt the rise (and reign in) but not overshoot with monetary policy such that it causes more contraction than is necessary-not easy
Fed chairman Jay Powell soothed fear of much bigger and earlier rate rises. Consensus was for 75bps but in fact they got 50 with a comment from the man himself 'we chose not to use the nuclear option', presumably because the market has already suffered enough volatility from the near term unknown of more hawkish rate policy. He also described the US job market as hot-record unemployment (so much for recession) but he wants to balance this with inflation.
There are signs that inflation is starting to abate in certain sectors of the economy and clearly the ideal scenario is a halt the rise (and reign in) but not overshoot with monetary policy such that it causes more contraction than is necessary-not easy
Hello all
Having been hard at it as would be expected, I thought that in light of recent posts it may be a good idea to send out a communication slightly early.
Obviously there are many people for whom we provide information overload and/or just don't want to be involved in investment decisions, which by definition requires lots of information. Equally, there are other who want this involvement.
Private Clients started life using our IM Optimum and IM Index portfolios, so there was little to nothing that required investor input.
It then encompassed other investment approaches;
1) PH Equity - Our shining star until recent events - I believe it will recover and return to its long term form of serious outperformance, as it always has.
2) PH Recovery - Doesn't really need talking about. It will always be the investment everybody which they had put the lot into!
3) PH Opportunities - Launch to fill the gap left by PHR, but with a long term outlook, rather than a short term grab and run one.
4) PH Technology - Our latest and for me a very exciting portfolio that lets us stay inside or stray outside the mandates of all other portfolios. I am expecting a lot from this.
So in short, we added 4 (now of course 3) more focused investment styles as it was what we wanted to offer and what you wanted to see.
Everything great then, right up until the inevitable market issues landing (and I mean inevitable in terms of normal market cycles, not inevitable in a way we could have predicted!).
This now creates a very natural problem for many. Your money is exposed to many different stocks and investment techniques. Whilst returns are strong no one cares too much about how this is being achieved (as already commented), but when things become difficult and we see paper losses then things change in this respect.
One thing that has sunk in is that selecting where you should be invested from different management styles, stocks and trackers, holding them appropriately at any given time and adjusting this the closer you get to requiring access (which is the only point a profit or loss becomes real) is actually not what many people wanted at all.
So the easy answer is to go back to the slow and steady IM Optimum or IM Index route and not worry. HOWEVER, then you watch over time and do a bit of PHR kicking yourself for not going all PH on your investments.
So... The solution...
By the end of this month we are launching something completely new; IM LIFESTYLE.
I'll get in early before anyone else shortens it to IML and give you an overview here:
IML is one portfolios containing our best ideas at any point in time. It is not a combination of x% IM this and y% PH that, it instead draws directly from the underlying holdings within all of our portfolios.
It can therefore include index trackers (it will) together with particular stock holdings taken from across the whole range of PH portfolios. Then it does something else.
It swaps, changes, weighs or even omits different elements to suit the period of time you have remaining ahead of you before requiring access. And it does this differently whether at this point you require an income or lump sum withdrawals (or a mixture).
In short, everything is done for you and managed internally by us in line with your requirements. We also don't discuss attitude to risk, as this is subjective and changeable.
We are all sometimes guilty of taking to high risk when it is not necessary to meet your requirement (you know who you are!), or of taking too little risk to achieve the potential returns needed to hit your goals. IML will sit your risk/reward where any reasonable person should, in our opinion, should be positioned. We will then alter this in line with your remaining time before requiring income, withdrawals, or both.
So it is one investment, but will be different of each investor with different circumstance to another. It will also include the exciting PH portfolio stock selection approach with the foundation of index tracking behind it. And it will fit it to your circumstances, change things as your target dates approach and manage it in line with current market sentiment at every stage.
It is really what Private Clients should always have been when you apply the wonderful benefit of hindsight. But as of the end of the month it will be an option for all who may prefer this.
So you can continue to choose the portfolios yourself and let us manage them for you, or your can have us manage the whole thing, including all underlying investment decisions.
All thoughts are welcome, but after this much time in development and construction it better be good if you want us to change anything!!!
Cheers
Julian
PS Sorry this was long winded, by the time we launch we will have it down to s sentence or two!
Having been hard at it as would be expected, I thought that in light of recent posts it may be a good idea to send out a communication slightly early.
Obviously there are many people for whom we provide information overload and/or just don't want to be involved in investment decisions, which by definition requires lots of information. Equally, there are other who want this involvement.
Private Clients started life using our IM Optimum and IM Index portfolios, so there was little to nothing that required investor input.
It then encompassed other investment approaches;
1) PH Equity - Our shining star until recent events - I believe it will recover and return to its long term form of serious outperformance, as it always has.
2) PH Recovery - Doesn't really need talking about. It will always be the investment everybody which they had put the lot into!
3) PH Opportunities - Launch to fill the gap left by PHR, but with a long term outlook, rather than a short term grab and run one.
4) PH Technology - Our latest and for me a very exciting portfolio that lets us stay inside or stray outside the mandates of all other portfolios. I am expecting a lot from this.
So in short, we added 4 (now of course 3) more focused investment styles as it was what we wanted to offer and what you wanted to see.
Everything great then, right up until the inevitable market issues landing (and I mean inevitable in terms of normal market cycles, not inevitable in a way we could have predicted!).
This now creates a very natural problem for many. Your money is exposed to many different stocks and investment techniques. Whilst returns are strong no one cares too much about how this is being achieved (as already commented), but when things become difficult and we see paper losses then things change in this respect.
One thing that has sunk in is that selecting where you should be invested from different management styles, stocks and trackers, holding them appropriately at any given time and adjusting this the closer you get to requiring access (which is the only point a profit or loss becomes real) is actually not what many people wanted at all.
So the easy answer is to go back to the slow and steady IM Optimum or IM Index route and not worry. HOWEVER, then you watch over time and do a bit of PHR kicking yourself for not going all PH on your investments.
So... The solution...
By the end of this month we are launching something completely new; IM LIFESTYLE.
I'll get in early before anyone else shortens it to IML and give you an overview here:
IML is one portfolios containing our best ideas at any point in time. It is not a combination of x% IM this and y% PH that, it instead draws directly from the underlying holdings within all of our portfolios.
It can therefore include index trackers (it will) together with particular stock holdings taken from across the whole range of PH portfolios. Then it does something else.
It swaps, changes, weighs or even omits different elements to suit the period of time you have remaining ahead of you before requiring access. And it does this differently whether at this point you require an income or lump sum withdrawals (or a mixture).
In short, everything is done for you and managed internally by us in line with your requirements. We also don't discuss attitude to risk, as this is subjective and changeable.
We are all sometimes guilty of taking to high risk when it is not necessary to meet your requirement (you know who you are!), or of taking too little risk to achieve the potential returns needed to hit your goals. IML will sit your risk/reward where any reasonable person should, in our opinion, should be positioned. We will then alter this in line with your remaining time before requiring income, withdrawals, or both.
So it is one investment, but will be different of each investor with different circumstance to another. It will also include the exciting PH portfolio stock selection approach with the foundation of index tracking behind it. And it will fit it to your circumstances, change things as your target dates approach and manage it in line with current market sentiment at every stage.
It is really what Private Clients should always have been when you apply the wonderful benefit of hindsight. But as of the end of the month it will be an option for all who may prefer this.
So you can continue to choose the portfolios yourself and let us manage them for you, or your can have us manage the whole thing, including all underlying investment decisions.
All thoughts are welcome, but after this much time in development and construction it better be good if you want us to change anything!!!
Cheers
Julian
PS Sorry this was long winded, by the time we launch we will have it down to s sentence or two!
JulianPH said:
By the end of this month we are launching something completely new; IM LIFESTYLE.
I'll get in early before anyone else shortens it to IML and give you an overview here:
IML is one portfolios containing our best ideas at any point in time. It is not a combination of x% IM this and y% PH that, it instead draws directly from the underlying holdings within all of our portfolios.
It can therefore include index trackers (it will) together with particular stock holdings taken from across the whole range of PH portfolios. Then it does something else.
It swaps, changes, weighs or even omits different elements to suit the period of time you have remaining ahead of you before requiring access. And it does this differently whether at this point you require an income or lump sum withdrawals (or a mixture)...
All thoughts are welcome, but after this much time in development and construction it better be good if you want us to change anything!!!
Well that came out of the blue! There's poor old Adam slogging away on PHT and you play a flanker from offshore I'll get in early before anyone else shortens it to IML and give you an overview here:
IML is one portfolios containing our best ideas at any point in time. It is not a combination of x% IM this and y% PH that, it instead draws directly from the underlying holdings within all of our portfolios.
It can therefore include index trackers (it will) together with particular stock holdings taken from across the whole range of PH portfolios. Then it does something else.
It swaps, changes, weighs or even omits different elements to suit the period of time you have remaining ahead of you before requiring access. And it does this differently whether at this point you require an income or lump sum withdrawals (or a mixture)...
All thoughts are welcome, but after this much time in development and construction it better be good if you want us to change anything!!!
IML sounds very clever - but will it render some of the current products redundant? And is it unique in the investment world?
(PS You forgot the bit about 'automatically sells the day before a crash' lol)
Carbon Sasquatch said:
The big question is what will the fees be ?
1% a year (falling to 0.9% as per normal) flat inclusive of everything.So that is the funds, dealing, curency conversion, platform and custody, plus our investment management, asset allocation, timeline structuring, financial planning and tax planning.
So 1% a year to have everthing done for you with no extra or hidden costs or fees!
I know, I know, but you can all have a whip round for me at Christmas!
Simpo Two said:
Well that came out of the blue! There's poor old Adam slogging away on PHT and you play a flanker from offshore
IML sounds very clever - but will it render some of the current products redundant? And is it unique in the investment world?
(PS You forgot the bit about 'automatically sells the day before a crash' lol)
That's a bit like the 20 years it took me to become an overnight success!IML sounds very clever - but will it render some of the current products redundant? And is it unique in the investment world?
(PS You forgot the bit about 'automatically sells the day before a crash' lol)
Adam has been instrumental in building it with me and will run it alongside me, so don't worry there!
It is rather clever, but won't render anything else redundant. It is just a case of deciding whether your want to pick and switch our portfolios, or whether you would like to be in a portfolio of our best ideas for your requirements.
PS If we could always sell the day before a crash, you would only moan were were a day late buying back in anyway mate!
Speckle said:
IML sounds very tempting.
With so much crossover, would we be able to take advantage of IML without having to realise the losses of current portfolio holdings?
Ironically, realising any losses can be good thing, as you can carry forward CGT losses into future years and offset these against profits you wish to take.With so much crossover, would we be able to take advantage of IML without having to realise the losses of current portfolio holdings?
Nik's your man here!
It sounds like it might fit with what I'd like - if I understand correctly....
A drawdown model - here's a chunk of cash - I want to regular monthly withdrawal of x. So you know when I want the money & based on that you can also see what is a short/medium/long term investment.
Would it work for that ?
A drawdown model - here's a chunk of cash - I want to regular monthly withdrawal of x. So you know when I want the money & based on that you can also see what is a short/medium/long term investment.
Would it work for that ?
Carbon Sasquatch said:
It sounds like it might fit with what I'd like - if I understand correctly....
A drawdown model - here's a chunk of cash - I want to regular monthly withdrawal of x. So you know when I want the money & based on that you can also see what is a short/medium/long term investment.
Would it work for that ?
It works exactly like that in that we place you in a portfolio designed specifically to generate returns from which to support your drawdown through the short/medium/long stages and maximise its longevity.A drawdown model - here's a chunk of cash - I want to regular monthly withdrawal of x. So you know when I want the money & based on that you can also see what is a short/medium/long term investment.
Would it work for that ?
There is also the stepped approach, where you would place some of your funds to provide a steady level of income for the 1st period, whilst the rest continues to seek growth at a higher risk/reard level, then move on and repeat for the folowing period and so on.
There is no right or wrong here. Some people take comfort of seeing they shorter term drawdown funds sat in one place at a low risk/reward level to reduce volatility, whilst the rest sit in another account, with higher risk/reward for future use. Others are happy to see everyting in one place working to the (reasonable for drawdown) max from day one.
I hope this answers your question, but suspect it may throw up more!
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