Your questions answered Vol 2 - IM Private Clients
Discussion
leef44 said:
This is where investment analysis go wrong. All this focus on Fed Reserve predictions of interest rate rises and labour market reports, when the most significant global impact on the market is tight fart fund movements.
We can make this work. We employ Mr Fart in much the same way that the police use a sniffer dog. Except that if this dog points one way, we know the drugs are the other way. So, we give him a float of, say, £1,000, and let him loose on the markets.
We watch him closely and immediately invest our money, say £10,000, in the exact opposite of what he chooses. With the undoubted profits we will make, we can replace Mr Fart's continually disappearing cash float and pay him a decent salary too
Simpo Two said:
leef44 said:
This is where investment analysis go wrong. All this focus on Fed Reserve predictions of interest rate rises and labour market reports, when the most significant global impact on the market is tight fart fund movements.
We can make this work. We employ Mr Fart in much the same way that the police use a sniffer dog. Except that if this dog points one way, we know the drugs are the other way. So, we give him a float of, say, £1,000, and let him loose on the markets.
We watch him closely and immediately invest our money, say £10,000, in the exact opposite of what he chooses. With the undoubted profits we will make, we can replace Mr Fart's continually disappearing cash float and pay him a decent salary too
Simpo Two said:
leef44 said:
This is where investment analysis go wrong. All this focus on Fed Reserve predictions of interest rate rises and labour market reports, when the most significant global impact on the market is tight fart fund movements.
We can make this work. We employ Mr Fart in much the same way that the police use a sniffer dog. Except that if this dog points one way, we know the drugs are the other way. So, we give him a float of, say, £1,000, and let him loose on the markets.
We watch him closely and immediately invest our money, say £10,000, in the exact opposite of what he chooses. With the undoubted profits we will make, we can replace Mr Fart's continually disappearing cash float and pay him a decent salary too
pingu393 said:
UK tech companies that use SVB will be able to pay their employees, because Rishi will cover any short-term cashflow. Are US-based companies in the same position? If not, how deep can we expect to drop, and how fast? Do we have any funds that may be directly affected, or is the bank that Google uses a corporate secret, and not even savvy investment managers able to find out?
Just popping this one back on the radar, as I would also like to know about this.-Cappo- said:
Just popping this one back on the radar, as I would also like to know about this.
No impact as the Gov has stepped in to say everyone will get their deposits, no matter the amount - the previous rule was only the first 250K. They've removed that threat.SVB's payment systems are now operating again as well, I just read.
nebpor said:
-Cappo- said:
Just popping this one back on the radar, as I would also like to know about this.
No impact as the Gov has stepped in to say everyone will get their deposits, no matter the amount - the previous rule was only the first 250K. They've removed that threat.SVB's payment systems are now operating again as well, I just read.
PM3 said:
nebpor said:
-Cappo- said:
Just popping this one back on the radar, as I would also like to know about this.
No impact as the Gov has stepped in to say everyone will get their deposits, no matter the amount - the previous rule was only the first 250K. They've removed that threat.SVB's payment systems are now operating again as well, I just read.
-Cappo- said:
, I'm not looking forward to tomorrow's numbers,
Phe has only one negative stock in it at the moment, dge, dollar v gbp has weakened about 1% but currently most stocks in phe are up by over the 1%.Ftse and Europe taking too much of a hit imo.
Buying opportunity and this nonsense will be forgotten about next month
PM3 said:
I'm mainly Index100 and OGG ..... my biggest single day fall ( by some margin) in value in 28 months ( all my time in IM ) must be in my imagination
Fair - I read the question wrong, so apologies. I thought it was about the impact on the companies who banked at SVB, which should be minimal from a banking point of view - obviously the markets are still having a fright.
-Cappo- said:
PM3 said:
nebpor said:
-Cappo- said:
Just popping this one back on the radar, as I would also like to know about this.
No impact as the Gov has stepped in to say everyone will get their deposits, no matter the amount - the previous rule was only the first 250K. They've removed that threat.SVB's payment systems are now operating again as well, I just read.
Easier planning also for new ISA tax year and top up GIA , I'll simply wait for the YTD drop to hit about same figure as was on 1 Jan 23 and call that bottom for me and add to my accounts on or near 6April . It it falls more I'll watch for same drop and double down again ( obviously not in ISA) and that will pretty much be me for the year .
Happily the cash on deposit in NS&I still having a better 2023 !
Simpo Two said:
Ooh thanks for that - I sold half my FTSE100 when it was 7950 so have just piled it back in
If you buy for less than you sold, you win.
Should have sold the lot on 16th FebIf you buy for less than you sold, you win.
And waited for today lol
Hth, great this hindsight stuff isn't it :-)
Now - cpi figures today, lets see how much we rally this afternoon. (he says optimistically)
Edited by dingg on Tuesday 14th March 11:01
CPI Nr's in. And it certainly looks to be heading in the right direction. You would think Powell would be happy. The USD is in the 1.218-1.22 range. Again no surprises as rate hikes now seem more muted/ SVIB firmly in the minds of the Fed? I think so.
US stock futures on Tuesday remained mostly unchanged following consumer inflation data for February which cooled as anticipated. Market participants will scrutinise the data for insights into the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rate increases, especially after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB).
Nasdaq 100 futures increased by 0.71%, while S&P 500 futures rose by 0.81%. Dow futures also climbed by 0.64%. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February experienced a smaller increase than the +0.5% M/M gain in January. In February, CPI rose 6% YoY, in line with consensus and lower than the +6.4% YoY increase in January. Core CPI for February was +0.5% M/M, compared to an expected +0.4%.
US stock futures on Tuesday remained mostly unchanged following consumer inflation data for February which cooled as anticipated. Market participants will scrutinise the data for insights into the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rate increases, especially after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB).
Nasdaq 100 futures increased by 0.71%, while S&P 500 futures rose by 0.81%. Dow futures also climbed by 0.64%. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February experienced a smaller increase than the +0.5% M/M gain in January. In February, CPI rose 6% YoY, in line with consensus and lower than the +6.4% YoY increase in January. Core CPI for February was +0.5% M/M, compared to an expected +0.4%.
dingg said:
Should have sold the lot on 16th Feb
And waited for today lol
Being a fund the trade is done at noon the following day, so it would have completed today. So, CG allowance spent, and back in market at a better rate - Simpo win!And waited for today lol
I don't know enough to analyse the markets, but I can tell if one number is higher or lower than another number...
dingg said:
Should have sold the lot on 16th Feb
And waited for today lol
Hth, great this hindsight stuff isn't it :-)
Now - cpi figures today, lets see how much we rally this afternoon. (he says optimistically)
Indeed hindsight makes for an awesome investment skill. But I’ve witnessed Simpo over many forums and there’s nothing he doesn’t know better it seems. And waited for today lol
Hth, great this hindsight stuff isn't it :-)
Now - cpi figures today, lets see how much we rally this afternoon. (he says optimistically)
Edited by dingg on Tuesday 14th March 11:01
Shnozz said:
Indeed hindsight makes for an awesome investment skill. But I’ve witnessed Simpo over many forums and there’s nothing he doesn’t know better it seems.
Selling at one price and buying at a lower price isn't hindsight, it's just numbers and opportunism.Bear in mind though that history has a habit of repeating itself, so foresight and hindsight can be bedfellows.
tight fart said:
You may all mock, but had you have followed my brilliant insight into Aston Martin shares and done the opposite, you’d all be millionaires!
As if any proof of my brilliance was needed, and my buy in the dip sell at peak etc.Having sold Aston Martin at an all time low just before they rocketed, I bought Virgin Orbit thinking they were at a low after their rocket returned to earth a bit early. This time next year Rodney.
Adobe (ADBE) PHT reported their Fiscal 23 Q1 results last night
Adobe drove record Q1 revenue and are raising annual target guidance based on the robust demand being seen by management.
First Quarter Fiscal Year 2023 Financial Highlights
Adobe achieved revenue of $4.66 billion in its first quarter of fiscal year 2023, which represents 9 percent year-over-year growth or 13 percent in constant currency. Diluted earnings per share was $2.71 on a GAAP basis and $3.80 on a non-GAAP basis.
GAAP operating income in the first quarter was $1.59 billion and non-GAAP operating income was $2.13 billion. GAAP net income was $1.25 billion and non-GAAP net income was $1.75 billion.
Cash flows from operations were $1.69 billion.
Remaining Performance Obligations (“RPO”) exiting the quarter were $15.21 billion.
Adobe repurchased approximately 5.0 million shares during the quarter.
The stock is trading up > 5% after/hours
Record revenue in Q1 was achieved across Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud. Adobe products are playing a critical role in fueling the global digital economy. The company is executing well against their ‘creativity for all’ strategy.
I think the company illustrates that even though there are economic challenges plus FX negatives, good businesses with a demonstrable competitive advantage can out perform even in tough markets.
Adobe drove record Q1 revenue and are raising annual target guidance based on the robust demand being seen by management.
First Quarter Fiscal Year 2023 Financial Highlights
Adobe achieved revenue of $4.66 billion in its first quarter of fiscal year 2023, which represents 9 percent year-over-year growth or 13 percent in constant currency. Diluted earnings per share was $2.71 on a GAAP basis and $3.80 on a non-GAAP basis.
GAAP operating income in the first quarter was $1.59 billion and non-GAAP operating income was $2.13 billion. GAAP net income was $1.25 billion and non-GAAP net income was $1.75 billion.
Cash flows from operations were $1.69 billion.
Remaining Performance Obligations (“RPO”) exiting the quarter were $15.21 billion.
Adobe repurchased approximately 5.0 million shares during the quarter.
The stock is trading up > 5% after/hours
Record revenue in Q1 was achieved across Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud. Adobe products are playing a critical role in fueling the global digital economy. The company is executing well against their ‘creativity for all’ strategy.
I think the company illustrates that even though there are economic challenges plus FX negatives, good businesses with a demonstrable competitive advantage can out perform even in tough markets.
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