Your questions answered Vol 2 - IM Private Clients

[Steve H]

Absolutely, after the last few months of gains we have to expect some spikes, I just have my doubts that they were caused by world events.

If the fundamentals are still correct this is an opportunity, I just need to look for the shortcut button that allows me to pay in without showing me how much I lost yesterday .

[Ron-ski]

My numbers are down quite a bit this week before I enter todays values, but they are just that, numbers. They'll go back up again, probably Monday as people see an opportunity.

Edited by Ron-ski on Saturday 20th April 08:42

[bitchstewie]

Steve H said:

Absolutely, after the last few months of gains we have to expect some spikes, I just have my doubts that they were caused by world events.

If the fundamentals are still correct this is an opportunity, I just need to look for the shortcut button that allows me to pay in without showing me how much I lost yesterday .

I don't use IM but seriously I don't get why platforms don't offer this.

Everyone says look less often and invest regularly.

Unless you automate it which doesn't always work if you have a varying amount to invest each month I don't know of a single platform that lets you add money and invest without seeing your balance.

[Gallons Per Mile]

bhstewie said:

I don't use IM but seriously I don't get why platforms don't offer this.

Everyone says look less often and invest regularly.

Unless you automate it which doesn't always work if you have a varying amount to invest each month I don't know of a single platform that lets you add money and invest without seeing your balance.

It's a good point, but you'd have to automate the minimum you could reliably contribute every month and maybe lump sum the surplus in every so often to avoid seeing 'the number'.

Personally I'm happy numbers are dropping right now. If my car sale pulls off early next week then it'll be a great time to use up some ISA allowance!

[Speckle]

Steve H said:

If the fundamentals are still correct this is an opportunity, I just need to look for the shortcut button that allows me to pay in without showing me how much I lost yesterday .

When you find that button, do let us know where it is!!

[AdamIM]

Steve H said:

AdamIM said:

Smci were expected to announce earnings early-they didn’t. So no news = a big sell off. That’s all there is to say. The company raised billions over the quarter to buy more silicon. They’re building 4 new factories that we know of. They are probably the fastest growing business in the S&P and that hasn’t changed.

I think management need to start acting like an sp500 company, being, get their communication straight. They surely knew saying nothing would be an issue. There are reasons why they couldn’t pre announced and that might be tied to them just joining the S&P or a policy change. They could have said something as opposed to nothing. It’s not like they missed guidance, that we do know as they must report that early.

Thanks Adam. Sounds like a good time to top up this years ISA allowance.

So was the hit on Nvidia a knockon from the Smci drop or was something else happening there? I thought Nvidia changes would hit the "smaller" AI players but not so much the other way round?

supersport said:

Um world events...

Dow was up 200 yesterday………

Yes, Nvidia sold off in sympathy with SMCI. We know the wider market isn't rational sometimes and this is a perfect example. Nothing else has happened except more positive data (company micro level). It seems the market has an obsession with rates. Ultimately rates set the bar for consumer spending but the economy has weathered the hikes well and labour markets are still relatively tight. The fact remains big tech (hyperscalers) are cash rich, have no debt and are building out their data centres as fast as supply will allow. This isn't a demand issue, it's a supply issue and even that is very good now.

And don't just take my word for it, listen to King of HPC silicon, TSMC( CC Wei is the CEO). Taken from the earnings call Q&A, 2 days ago. Traditional servers are dead. Accelerated servers are in 'very-very'' high demand. In a separate comment they said their supply will be 100% greater in 24 and a 50% CAGR for 5. TSMC are notoriously very conservative. That is an approx 8X greater volume for Nvda over 5 years which if correct would peg their revenue in the $4-500B range.

All this silicon needs to be installed in custom server racks. SMCI is the fastest growing innovator in this space. They have distinct advantages over Dell and HPE, namely their US made total solutions(demanded by big customers). Dell has a problem, most of their capacity is sourced from China factories (remember the chip ban). They are a white label mass producer of traditional servers (they are dead remember). SMCI is a partner of intel/AMD and Nvidia.

They receive very early access to new products such that when the chip drops, they already have a marketable solution. So time to market advantage. US made. These are not generic cookie cutter commodities. These are specialist and very complex machines which are designed specifically for a task(60% of total employees are engineers). The building block solution. A nimble innovator who can pivot quickly into new designs and meet the market quicker than anyone else. And this is what big tech customers want.Why, because there is a race to offer the very best AI solutions.

DLC is another big driver starting now. You will have 120-150kw racks with Blackwell. Think about that power draw. Liquid cooling is a must have and SMCI is in the cat bird seat. They have been building out their rack scale capacity for 18 months in anticipation of the demand. Imo it is just a matter of time before their financials grow exponentially. Not that 100% growth rates (current) is to be dismissed as trivial.

The takeaway being, whilst frustrating seeing the market auction bid the price down, 'it' doesn't know anything new. The evidence is clear to anyone who can be bothered to look.

Wallstreet only 9 months ago estimated June 24 revenues would be 10B then they upped it to 12B 6 months ago. The company suggested 14.5B 3 months ago and it looks like they will achieve around $16B. Next June (25)we think they will manage $30B. According to a recent study by Research Nester, the global data centre liquid cooling market size is anticipated to surpass more than USD 230 billion by 2035. Today that number is tiny, low single digits(4B) and is a tiny fraction of SMCI total business.

We believe there is a very long growth runway to come. So the market can form its own opinion based on emotion and vapour and we will stick to our evidence based opinion. There will always be bumps in the road when you are dealing with emotive markets/bias and mis information. This is also a very fast paced industry where precise predictability of supply is less than perfect in the early innings. That being said there is no doubt that this is a secular shift not a short term cycle

[Car bon]

AdamIM said:

We believe there is a very long growth runway to come. So the market can form its own opinion based on emotion and vapour and we will stick to our evidence based opinion. There will always be bumps in the road when you are dealing with emotive markets/bias and mis information. This is also a very fast paced industry where precise predictability of supply is less than perfect in the early innings. That being said there is no doubt that this is a secular shift not a short term cycle

Thanks for taking the time to write all this stuff - very reassuring.

[Arranguez]

What I find so amazing is that, I assume, it takes huge institutional investors to cause such a big drop. Experts. These so called experts react like that to news which I read and thought “no problem there”.

[AdamIM]

To emphasis why DLC is so important.

SMCI’s Rack Scale Liquid Cooling Solutions have been seen to reduce electricity costs by 92% per server and 40% for the overall data centre. Global Data Centre power consumption today is around 500TW or 500 billion KW. At an avg price of 28 US cents per KW that is a cost of $140B annually. A 40% saving using DLC would equate to $56B annually. It is not hard to see why the market is moving to this new system. And it's not just about AI. It is accelerated computing. A faster server, not necessarily an AI server. It can perform AI but it might be employed to do something a lot faster than its ancestor-machine. Replacing 5000 old servers and costing a lot less.

This is key for many DC's where cities limit the power draw to avoid black outs. So, how does a 10GW limit DC speed things up, by adopting HPC racks and DLC -10x or 100x more work for the same 30GW. And this is what so many don't get. This is simple cost reduction driving the transition OR being electricity constrained, getting 10X the process power for the same cost. All measured in Operations per $. Companies like Intel which are very CPU centric will have a rough ride imo.



And overall power demand will double or triple in the coming years as despite their efficiency, these racks are 1000X faster than traditional servers so the power cost will be an ever increasing consideration i.e DLC will be ubiquitous from late 24 onwards. And whilst other vendors supply solid DLC solutions they do not have the Total IT Solution offered by SMCI(hardware, cyber security, custom design). What they call 'Plug and Play'

Edited by AdamIM on Saturday 20th April 18:11

Edited by AdamIM on Saturday 20th April 18:15

[AdamIM]

Arranguez said:

What I find so amazing is that, I assume, it takes huge institutional investors to cause such a big drop. Experts. These so called experts react like that to news which I read and thought “no problem there”.

It doesn't really work like that. All it takes is a lot more sellers than buyers. Friday was Options expiry so all those Call options which are backed by stock, now being out of the money, the option writer, mainly large banks offload the stock. This created the decline and then hedge funds will 'follow the flow', most likely shorting it further. There is no way the 17M share volume is actual shares as the float is only 53M. A lot of new shorting will have taken place on Friday and all of these will need to be purchased back.

Edited by AdamIM on Saturday 20th April 14:11

[Steve H]

Thanks Adam, it’s always interesting and slightly reassuring to hear the detail, appreciate you adding all that on the weekend .

Speckle said:

Steve H said:

If the fundamentals are still correct this is an opportunity, I just need to look for the shortcut button that allows me to pay in without showing me how much I lost yesterday .

When you find that button, do let us know where it is!!

Best I could do is set up the contributions before the 9am update .

[2Btoo]

Steve H said:

Best I could do is set up the contributions before the 9am update .

I'll second that. Thanks Adam.

[superlightr]

Its been asked before but im still blind as to how to do it.

We have cash held in the GIA with IM and want to transfer it out of the GIA into the ISA
Ive explored all the buttons etc and cannot for the life of me see how to transfer to my ISA.

[PM3]

superlightr said:

Its been asked before but im still blind as to how to do it.

We have cash held in the GIA with IM and want to transfer it out of the GIA into the ISA
I've explored all the buttons etc and cannot for the life of me see how to transfer to my ISA.

My post Friday 29th March ( over detailed example ) . Its blindingly obvious , once you scroll down the landing page ( Account overview) and start by selecting the " Move funds between Accounts" section

Edited by PM3 on Sunday 21st April 08:54

[guyvert1]

The initial screen you get after login, look right at the bottom: Move funds between Accounts

[Steve H]

I haven’t done it this way but in the ISAs section (if you already have an ISA with IM) you can go to "expected transfers" and "add new transfer" and IM is on the dropdown list of providers that you can transfer from.

Or is that just for transfers from existing ISAs?


ETA, looks like there’s a better way anyhow ^^^^

[leef44]

guyvert1 said:

The initial screen you get after login, look right at the bottom: Move funds between Accounts

I looked at this option but it transfers the whole amount in the account to ISA. My account has more than £20k in it so this was not possible. So I did it the manual way. Transfer £20k to cash. Then payment transfer £20k cash to ISA selecting the funds I wanted it to go into.

[superlightr]

PM3 said:

superlightr said:

Its been asked before but im still blind as to how to do it.

We have cash held in the GIA with IM and want to transfer it out of the GIA into the ISA
I've explored all the buttons etc and cannot for the life of me see how to transfer to my ISA.

My post Friday 29th March ( over detailed example ) . Its blindingly obvious , once you scroll down the landing page ( Account overview) and start by selecting the " Move funds between Accounts" section

Edited by PM3 on Sunday 21st April 08:54

Thank you !! I have never scrolled down that first summary page before hence never saw the move between accounts.

[Rusty Old-Banger]

Is it safe to come out from behind the sofa yet?

[Mr Pointy]

Rusty Old-Banger said:

Is it safe to come out from behind the sofa yet?

You know the rule: values may fall as well as plummet.