Crypto Currency Thread (Vol.2)
Discussion
g4ry13 said:
So how much have you made over the last month shorting crypto?
I don't trade short term, up or down, that's a mugs game or at least for people who are a lot better\braver\stupider (take your pick) then I am at this.I buy the dips, then wait and hope it goes up in the next cycle, take out a little to bank some profit and repeat.
I'm only interested in trying to work out where the bottom will be so I can buy some more with the profits I've already made and then trying to guess where it will top out so I can cash out a percentage of my profits. I've more than made back my initial investment so I'm effectively playing with free money at the moment which is a nice position to be in.
whatxd said:
Condi said:
If anyone could do exactly the same in a regulated environment then Goldman or MS would pay you far more "life changing" sums than they made from punting on crypto. I suggest they put in an application.
You seem bitter, why the sarcasm?If anyone can do the same more than half way consistently in a regulated market, then they're potentially highly employable.
halo34 said:
Wasn't there a case fairly recently where Reddit sparked off massive rises in the stock market for an underperforming gaming organisation, where its value was vastly inflated?
Funnily enough, this scenario was based on market fundamentals and was enabled because the ‘experienced’ (hedge funds) had got slack and lazy or perhaps were caught gambling on something with their pants down, naked shorts?It was based on a few people having an understanding of the market mechanics and position then as more people understood it a bit better, more joined the hunt...
...then those that saw money being made also joined and then it went from fundamentals to mania...if you wanted to ask the peeps who sold their 401ks to buy in at $300 GameStop shares how market fundamentals are working you’d probably have to cut them down from the rafters first.
Seems BTC has more in common with markets than you’d think.
————-
I also doubt much of the nasdaq is actually trading on fundamentals either, they’re just relying on Powell printing forever and it’s more to do with ‘there is no alternative’ investment.
I keep poking around in my pension pot and don’t really know where to to stick it for returns or at least hedging for losses when inflation bites and IRs go up. (my corporate pension doesn’t support crypto or I’d happily have 10% or so allocated. At the minute it’s just spread across stocks/gilts/some metals and bonds depending on what my gut is fearfully screaming at me over breakfast each day)
g4ry13 said:
So how much have you made over the last month shorting crypto?
Shorting's a proper mugs game in the crypto market. Everyone knows the market is bent especially when it's dropping. The regulated markets are tricky enough for playing in right now let alone the toytown ones.
Condi said:
What is advantageous, from a central bank's POV, about a distributed ledger, rather than a ledger they control/own themselves? They are going to have to pay people - somehow - to run a network which is going to be extremely interesting to hackers and criminal groups, and so will require some significant security protocols.
I do think they will introduce something, but I suspect it will be far more "in house" than a distributed ledger on a vast network. As for your assumption that retirement savings will be managed on one, why? There was a lot of interest in smart contracts in international commodity transactions, and several were tried about 4 or 5 years ago, but since then it's all gone very quiet - they didn't offer the advantages which were promised and a lot of the paperwork still had to be checked by hand. From a customers POV the savings accounts I have now are more than adequate and I don't see what advantages a blockchain record will have?
I already explained that the reasons for central bank stable coins, its entirely to do with monetary transmission and lower bound rate management. Also, custody is by and large moving on to DLT. In fact Bank of New York, is running DLT for their custody business. Where do you think your retirement savings are held - unless you are in physical commodities or under the bed? It is being introduced, it might be transparent to you as an end user; but there are very good reasons to use a DLT network for such things - they can largely eliminate intra-day credit or settlement risk which is capital intensive for banks. I do think they will introduce something, but I suspect it will be far more "in house" than a distributed ledger on a vast network. As for your assumption that retirement savings will be managed on one, why? There was a lot of interest in smart contracts in international commodity transactions, and several were tried about 4 or 5 years ago, but since then it's all gone very quiet - they didn't offer the advantages which were promised and a lot of the paperwork still had to be checked by hand. From a customers POV the savings accounts I have now are more than adequate and I don't see what advantages a blockchain record will have?
REAL stable coins and book entry DLT, is advantageous up and down the banking / financial services chain. It doesn't mean that the end user is seeing DLT or going to be holding magic beans. They are going to introduce it, because Net Interest Margin is collapsing and they need to save as much cost as possible, Deposit taking is loss making, and we don't have negative rates we cannot pass through (its why the ECB subsidies EU banks with Tiering). We dropped 0.14% in operational costs alone, and then you have to pay bank levy and depositor protection insurance.
There is a world of difference between the utility of DLT and some of the magic coins out there.
xeny said:
whatxd said:
Owning Bitcoin when I did wasn't random and nor was the time I sold. I could've gotten out with a nice sum in June 2019 and watching it go down for 6 months straight in the second half of 2019 wasn't particularly nice, but i still had no doubt in my mind that the real pump would come after the halving.
That's great and all, but what evidence did you have that you wouldn't find yourself in the same situation as Newton with the South Sea Company?whatxd said:
What evidence do I have that you’re not a wum and an in depth reply would be a complete waste of time?
You have little evidence that everything outside your own consciousness isn't imaginary, but then the same thing is true for me.I'd hope though that an explanation as to why Crypto appears to be run undamped value oscillation that is increasing in magnitude when typically previous bubbles have oscillated once or twice before collapsing to near zero would be reasonably quick and straightforward?
xeny said:
You have little evidence that everything outside your own consciousness isn't imaginary, but then the same thing is true for me.
I'd hope though that an explanation as to why Crypto appears to be run undamped value oscillation that is increasing in magnitude when typically previous bubbles have oscillated once or twice before collapsing to near zero would be reasonably quick and straightforward?
If you look hard enough, you'll notice that you just answered your question. I'd hope though that an explanation as to why Crypto appears to be run undamped value oscillation that is increasing in magnitude when typically previous bubbles have oscillated once or twice before collapsing to near zero would be reasonably quick and straightforward?
whatxd said:
If you look hard enough, you'll notice that you just answered your question.
Your reasoning was that crypto is fundamentally different from them? That's the bit I can't bring myself to be convinced by. Crypto may have a better story, and a larger pool of people to run backwards and forwards, but I'm yet not convinced by any of the arguments for fundamental value.Vanity Projects said:
Funnily enough, this scenario was based on market fundamentals and was enabled because the ‘experienced’ (hedge funds) had got slack and lazy or perhaps were caught gambling on something with their pants down, naked shorts?
It was based on a few people having an understanding of the market mechanics and position then as more people understood it a bit better, more joined the hunt...
...then those that saw money being made also joined and then it went from fundamentals to mania...if you wanted to ask the peeps who sold their 401ks to buy in at $300 GameStop shares how market fundamentals are working you’d probably have to cut them down from the rafters first.
Seems BTC has more in common with markets than you’d think.
————-
I also doubt much of the nasdaq is actually trading on fundamentals either, they’re just relying on Powell printing forever and it’s more to do with ‘there is no alternative’ investment.
I keep poking around in my pension pot and don’t really know where to to stick it for returns or at least hedging for losses when inflation bites and IRs go up. (my corporate pension doesn’t support crypto or I’d happily have 10% or so allocated. At the minute it’s just spread across stocks/gilts/some metals and bonds depending on what my gut is fearfully screaming at me over breakfast each day)
I guess this was my point. In isolation crypto looks "bad" yet there are clear examples of fundamental markets having influences, speculation and buying/selling frenzies that are similar and based on no real logic if you take a step back. It was based on a few people having an understanding of the market mechanics and position then as more people understood it a bit better, more joined the hunt...
...then those that saw money being made also joined and then it went from fundamentals to mania...if you wanted to ask the peeps who sold their 401ks to buy in at $300 GameStop shares how market fundamentals are working you’d probably have to cut them down from the rafters first.
Seems BTC has more in common with markets than you’d think.
————-
I also doubt much of the nasdaq is actually trading on fundamentals either, they’re just relying on Powell printing forever and it’s more to do with ‘there is no alternative’ investment.
I keep poking around in my pension pot and don’t really know where to to stick it for returns or at least hedging for losses when inflation bites and IRs go up. (my corporate pension doesn’t support crypto or I’d happily have 10% or so allocated. At the minute it’s just spread across stocks/gilts/some metals and bonds depending on what my gut is fearfully screaming at me over breakfast each day)
End of day this perception of money is all something we invented anyway as a species, so sometimes I find it odd that on the one hand a piece of paper apparently has a value - yet a digital record of something cant. Its just how we see the rules around it that somehow are ok/not ok.
Guvernator said:
Once again I refer the good gentlemen to the last cycle, I'd guess we are about where I've placed the red X right about now.
So a week or two of upward trend followed by a decline.
Just an educated guess though, let's see if I'm right.
In my view, we are about 3-5 months to the left of your graph. In other words, the big peak is yet to come. But I am no more likely to be right than you. It will be interesting to see what really happens.So a week or two of upward trend followed by a decline.
Just an educated guess though, let's see if I'm right.
Throttle Body said:
In my view, we are about 3-5 months to the left of your graph. In other words, the big peak is yet to come. But I am no more likely to be right than you. It will be interesting to see what really happens.
We've had the peak, nothing previous to this has shown a peak followed by another even larger peak within 5 months so why would it now? My prediction is based on the previous, very similar pattern which occurred in 2017, what's yours based on?
Big wallet going HAM
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https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/1P5ZEDWT...cf_chl_jschl_tk=14a48a4811e52f7557b4a82188f218d94b964929-1622618425-0-AaayA9YcDyWM14_8Ua0xlucADPNTjKykD6nDB9tTRzhNXHeHorm13xy0Zwdo53VvcMZTAPBM7xN4RvraoUHKNJJ5u7XITbq3An1f_kVyhClqD_Ex7usr9t3U61G5jY7HqL-0Y8vfO4Tjb1fnbXk4oZ0Xwy3AW-NfIffYBCnvS1qMmjUZSe7bKksJJjqJ8V2ccXc4mGUTaJY627E_iz_UaRduhrEcVdoVHljlmkfsI2BXGtEbuANe0-0eqeu6HZiFuUcld4q2TH7p2vQhMhbq-X2DmEQUw09Zw1xo7kyXxycda4zo2mRq6EvPp-PPHRtPi9pfHSePgzet9AFJ2W37SuGYNn1_Ld_fyLpF2P4AmBN20aLF1KabQ3WENiW3y6_7CL83oi82Ta5q9mMDA3GNnaWt9db_I8FsChlTIgCIKZ9hvpS8YJ-VALFo-DpLwWH1Ja4XFfShvypTqeWVHuSWdsAIBjpbp7fxbejdhssdiXYk4last14yWCggahs-08SGGzfDcg6XNN1CedWGajEEqYo
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