Crypto Currency Thread (Vol.2)
Discussion
r3g said:
Ari said:
That's a very poor analogy, allow me to help you with it.
There's a thread in the BMW forum about a magical new device. It costs £10,000 and is a block that weighs about a tonne that you put in the boot of your BMW 318i and it makes it go faster. Many say faster than a Lamborghini! It's got some complex electronics - they're not connected to the car in any way, and it's packaged smartly, even got a BMW logo on it.
Lots of people have rushed out and bought one. There's a bloke who's tried one out and says his car is DEFINITELY faster. But he seems to have only experienced it on a steep downhill.
People like Condi are asking a simple question - that makes no sense, how could it possibly work, it defies the laws of physics?
People like me are questioning the thought process of those who simply belive the marketing claims.
People like you, who've installed two of them at a cost of £20,000, are upset at the discussion about a new BMW accessory in a BMW discussion forum because you just want to believe it works without these pesky questions so are insulting anyone who questions it.
Deos that help?
I have no idea what you are talking either. It's such a load of incoherent rambling nonsense it doesn't even make any sense. Try reading what I wrote which is perfect comparison to what you are doing here with your constant trolling pretending to play dumb not knowing what crypto is in some childish and immature attempt to get someone to take the bait and explain it to you for the 100th time.There's a thread in the BMW forum about a magical new device. It costs £10,000 and is a block that weighs about a tonne that you put in the boot of your BMW 318i and it makes it go faster. Many say faster than a Lamborghini! It's got some complex electronics - they're not connected to the car in any way, and it's packaged smartly, even got a BMW logo on it.
Lots of people have rushed out and bought one. There's a bloke who's tried one out and says his car is DEFINITELY faster. But he seems to have only experienced it on a steep downhill.
People like Condi are asking a simple question - that makes no sense, how could it possibly work, it defies the laws of physics?
People like me are questioning the thought process of those who simply belive the marketing claims.
People like you, who've installed two of them at a cost of £20,000, are upset at the discussion about a new BMW accessory in a BMW discussion forum because you just want to believe it works without these pesky questions so are insulting anyone who questions it.
Deos that help?
That's Ari for you. He's like a dog with a bone in his mask thread as well, albeit, being on the anti mask side myself it's a little more entertaining.
DonkeyApple said:
The data in retail participation and weight stand heavily at odds with that view. The last few years have firmly seen retail flow in terms of market impact break out from the small cap market and start having the means to have significant impact on large caps. The effect has manifestly changed how brokers handle risk and how much they'll pay for flow streams that were once irrelevant.
It no doubt adds up to a lot of money, but it's the professional money that makes the big moves that dictate the market. And now they're mainly toast. whatxd said:
That's Ari for you. He's like a dog with a bone in his mask thread as well, albeit, being on the anti mask side myself it's a little more entertaining.
However it was a very poor one so I was trying to help make it a little more relevant, but sadly it was beyond him. Ah well...
DonkeyApple said:
You fully understand that what you have written is a wish rather than a reality.
One of the fundamental keys to protecting downside and making returns is to stick to the golden rule which is that your risk assessment will be wrong because you are genetically designed to be wrong.
Do you think the retail crypto market is full of people underweight or overweight in crypto?
It's not bashing. That's a victim's battle cry. It's just other discussing realities or asking questions because they think they aren't understanding something.
Totally agree with you on most of it - as for it being a wish. I'm speaking from my own perspective - after having bag held (only a few k worth) from 2017 low to high into the 2020 run up. My guess is a lot of retail traders will be in the same boat, learning a hard lesson - hopefully (for them), it is money they could afford not to have access to. One of the fundamental keys to protecting downside and making returns is to stick to the golden rule which is that your risk assessment will be wrong because you are genetically designed to be wrong.
Do you think the retail crypto market is full of people underweight or overweight in crypto?
It's not bashing. That's a victim's battle cry. It's just other discussing realities or asking questions because they think they aren't understanding something.
I guess I view it as having an understanding of your own risk profile and working according to it. Even the least volatile (bitcoin), can easily move 3-5% on an average day. Anyone who can't see the inherent volatility needs serious help. Alt coins are just an (extreme) leveraged version of that - with significantly higher tail risk in most cases.
digger_R said:
Voyager 'temporarily' suspending withdrawals, trading etc....
An interesting few weeks ahead
just reading about them. An interesting few weeks ahead
''Three Arrows Capital (3AC) had defaulted on a loan worth more than $670 million''
''The company also noted that it has access to a $200 million credit line in cash and USDC stablecoins,''
explains a lot really.
Ouroboros said:
just reading about them.
''Three Arrows Capital (3AC) had defaulted on a loan worth more than $670 million''
''The company also noted that it has access to a $200 million credit line in cash and USDC stablecoins,''
explains a lot really.
It does indeed. More unsustainable, unworkable, leveraged and risky bulls''Three Arrows Capital (3AC) had defaulted on a loan worth more than $670 million''
''The company also noted that it has access to a $200 million credit line in cash and USDC stablecoins,''
explains a lot really.
t from the financial industry. digger_R said:
Totally agree with you on most of it - as for it being a wish. I'm speaking from my own perspective - after having bag held (only a few k worth) from 2017 low to high into the 2020 run up. My guess is a lot of retail traders will be in the same boat, learning a hard lesson - hopefully (for them), it is money they could afford not to have access to.
I guess I view it as having an understanding of your own risk profile and working according to it. Even the least volatile (bitcoin), can easily move 3-5% on an average day. Anyone who can't see the inherent volatility needs serious help. Alt coins are just an (extreme) leveraged version of that - with significantly higher tail risk in most cases.
Yup. The thing is that I sit on the other side of the desk. I see the retail client flow on this sort of thing and the losses are huge and the position sizes way higher than is normal for the demographics. There is also clearly big leverage that has been applied. I guess I view it as having an understanding of your own risk profile and working according to it. Even the least volatile (bitcoin), can easily move 3-5% on an average day. Anyone who can't see the inherent volatility needs serious help. Alt coins are just an (extreme) leveraged version of that - with significantly higher tail risk in most cases.
The savvy investor/punter picture that you paint is always the smaller element of the market. Even those who know and understand have a tendency to get drawn into the hype of these things and end up sitting longer in a market than they would rationally expect but this market has seen this all turbocharged.
Part of the problem is that regulation usually keeps the most vulnerable out of such an event. Regulated entities carry a level of risk that generally incentivised the turning away of the most vulnerable or poorest people. There is often regulation to try and limit concentration risks and of course, regulations and risks to lending.
What we've seen in this market is a bad broker's dream. No regulation, no barriers to entry, no rules on what you can or can't say, no responsibility, absolutely no inhibitors whatsoever. The crypto market is an overt, modern display as to why financial regulation evolved and why in the absence of a religion to control financial speculation (why do three main religions and maybe others all have rules about lending and borrowing?).
From what we have seen the levels of personal exposure have been way higher than you'd normally see during a speculative bubble event, there is very clearly high levels of leverage that has been employed, very many people look to have been borrowing real money from wherever they can to increase exposure to these coins. And when you look at the timings of entries the percentage no under water is way higher than is normal.
The data from the broker side is showing a complete catastrophe. Meanwhile, on the client side big numbers are seemingly claiming that they don't have any losses. The latter always being a function of there being lots of losses. The end consumers will, after they've run out of money averaging down, take to social media to tell tales that don't align with what their account states.
What's really good about crypto though is that the vast majority of participants are young so have plenty of time to replace what they've lost and due to being young haven't been able to invest too much. Usually when these events happen it's the over 60s who have gone in large and lost the lot with no way to ever replace.
Under 30s punting pension contribution amounts is infinitely better and safer and less damaging than over 60s punting pension pots amounts.
In many ways, society should be incredibly grateful that on the whole the over 60s punter market refused to get involved in crypto, preferring to stick with door to door and cold call investments where the same catastrophic losses are involved but the sales process is so cumbersome and slow that most of the potential suckers are protected. Can you imagine if the over 60 Western punter had liked the look of crypto?!!! It would have been total carnage as they lost all their pension savings and then they'd go running and screaming to Govt to demand that all the working folk give them all their money to replace what they'd lost.
The losses in this market have been shocking but the difference is that most participants have been at the stage of their life where the amount of financial firepower they can bring to bear is at its smallest plus, they have the maximum amount of working time to repair. The middle demographic has generally been protected in the same way as usual, just not having the time, energy or spare money due to work, family and mortgage commitments. And we've been saved the real destruction and problems because the true punters market, the biggest market with massive pots and a baffling desire to punt it all on three legged dogs as advised by a turd in a suit didn't participate.
DonkeyApple said:
Yup. The thing is that I sit on the other side of the desk. I see the retail client flow on this sort of thing and the losses are huge and the position sizes way higher than is normal for the demographics. There is also clearly big leverage that has been applied.
The savvy investor/punter picture that you paint is always the smaller element of the market. Even those who know and understand have a tendency to get drawn into the hype of these things and end up sitting longer in a market than they would rationally expect but this market has seen this all turbocharged.
Part of the problem is that regulation usually keeps the most vulnerable out of such an event. Regulated entities carry a level of risk that generally incentivised the turning away of the most vulnerable or poorest people. There is often regulation to try and limit concentration risks and of course, regulations and risks to lending.
What we've seen in this market is a bad broker's dream. No regulation, no barriers to entry, no rules on what you can or can't say, no responsibility, absolutely no inhibitors whatsoever. The crypto market is an overt, modern display as to why financial regulation evolved and why in the absence of a religion to control financial speculation (why do three main religions and maybe others all have rules about lending and borrowing?).
From what we have seen the levels of personal exposure have been way higher than you'd normally see during a speculative bubble event, there is very clearly high levels of leverage that has been employed, very many people look to have been borrowing real money from wherever they can to increase exposure to these coins. And when you look at the timings of entries the percentage no under water is way higher than is normal.
The data from the broker side is showing a complete catastrophe. Meanwhile, on the client side big numbers are seemingly claiming that they don't have any losses. The latter always being a function of there being lots of losses. The end consumers will, after they've run out of money averaging down, take to social media to tell tales that don't align with what their account states.
What's really good about crypto though is that the vast majority of participants are young so have plenty of time to replace what they've lost and due to being young haven't been able to invest too much. Usually when these events happen it's the over 60s who have gone in large and lost the lot with no way to ever replace.
Under 30s punting pension contribution amounts is infinitely better and safer and less damaging than over 60s punting pension pots amounts.
In many ways, society should be incredibly grateful that on the whole the over 60s punter market refused to get involved in crypto, preferring to stick with door to door and cold call investments where the same catastrophic losses are involved but the sales process is so cumbersome and slow that most of the potential suckers are protected. Can you imagine if the over 60 Western punter had liked the look of crypto?!!! It would have been total carnage as they lost all their pension savings and then they'd go running and screaming to Govt to demand that all the working folk give them all their money to replace what they'd lost.
The losses in this market have been shocking but the difference is that most participants have been at the stage of their life where the amount of financial firepower they can bring to bear is at its smallest plus, they have the maximum amount of working time to repair. The middle demographic has generally been protected in the same way as usual, just not having the time, energy or spare money due to work, family and mortgage commitments. And we've been saved the real destruction and problems because the true punters market, the biggest market with massive pots and a baffling desire to punt it all on three legged dogs as advised by a turd in a suit didn't participate.
This belongs in a different thread as you are talking about speculative financial products, not crypto currency. The savvy investor/punter picture that you paint is always the smaller element of the market. Even those who know and understand have a tendency to get drawn into the hype of these things and end up sitting longer in a market than they would rationally expect but this market has seen this all turbocharged.
Part of the problem is that regulation usually keeps the most vulnerable out of such an event. Regulated entities carry a level of risk that generally incentivised the turning away of the most vulnerable or poorest people. There is often regulation to try and limit concentration risks and of course, regulations and risks to lending.
What we've seen in this market is a bad broker's dream. No regulation, no barriers to entry, no rules on what you can or can't say, no responsibility, absolutely no inhibitors whatsoever. The crypto market is an overt, modern display as to why financial regulation evolved and why in the absence of a religion to control financial speculation (why do three main religions and maybe others all have rules about lending and borrowing?).
From what we have seen the levels of personal exposure have been way higher than you'd normally see during a speculative bubble event, there is very clearly high levels of leverage that has been employed, very many people look to have been borrowing real money from wherever they can to increase exposure to these coins. And when you look at the timings of entries the percentage no under water is way higher than is normal.
The data from the broker side is showing a complete catastrophe. Meanwhile, on the client side big numbers are seemingly claiming that they don't have any losses. The latter always being a function of there being lots of losses. The end consumers will, after they've run out of money averaging down, take to social media to tell tales that don't align with what their account states.
What's really good about crypto though is that the vast majority of participants are young so have plenty of time to replace what they've lost and due to being young haven't been able to invest too much. Usually when these events happen it's the over 60s who have gone in large and lost the lot with no way to ever replace.
Under 30s punting pension contribution amounts is infinitely better and safer and less damaging than over 60s punting pension pots amounts.
In many ways, society should be incredibly grateful that on the whole the over 60s punter market refused to get involved in crypto, preferring to stick with door to door and cold call investments where the same catastrophic losses are involved but the sales process is so cumbersome and slow that most of the potential suckers are protected. Can you imagine if the over 60 Western punter had liked the look of crypto?!!! It would have been total carnage as they lost all their pension savings and then they'd go running and screaming to Govt to demand that all the working folk give them all their money to replace what they'd lost.
The losses in this market have been shocking but the difference is that most participants have been at the stage of their life where the amount of financial firepower they can bring to bear is at its smallest plus, they have the maximum amount of working time to repair. The middle demographic has generally been protected in the same way as usual, just not having the time, energy or spare money due to work, family and mortgage commitments. And we've been saved the real destruction and problems because the true punters market, the biggest market with massive pots and a baffling desire to punt it all on three legged dogs as advised by a turd in a suit didn't participate.
dimots said:
This belongs in a different thread as you are talking about speculative financial products, not crypto currency.
r3g said:
The only reason we buy into these is to speculate in the price increasing and selling at a nice profit or to gamble on the endless stream of 3% per day full degen ponzi projects before they rugpull. It's a form of gambling, that's it.
Ummm.....DonkeyApple said:
All good stuff
Totally agree with all that - the eye opening part for me is the level of losses you seem to have an awareness of. I've been living away from the West for a few years and my exposure to real world people in crypto is friends/family in different parts of the world - and obviously a whole bunch of online people (mainly retail traders of various level of smarts).
I had 60 plus yr old friends come and ask if it was a good time to buy cardano right before the market peaked. Personally I had taken most profit last year in April and then the rest in Nov. I missed entry in the final run up from July to Nov due to bereavement.
A lot of the 20-30 somethings proudly called themselves degens... they know what they are doing - I'm sure it doesn't make losses more palatable. At the same time I see a sense of desperation in many that there was a hope to be able to make something out of it.
Personally I'm far more risk averse, I went fully risk off in Nov 21 and stick to day trading - with 3-5% moves a day I only need to catch 1-2% to do well.
From the crypto communities I'm involved with - it's breeding some very, very smart people.
One thing I've noticed is the mindset - those projects that are burning have all kind of locked staking protocols offering 10-20% rewards. If you're involved in bitcoin/crypto - no retail punter should getting out of bed for that return, let alone locking up assets for it.
A few friends I told to get out last year - I'd say 80% listened, a few have literally bag held a bunch of s
tcoins as they've lost 80-90% in many cases.Most are in the camp now of, bag hold until the next cycle and hope it goes back up.
What Happens If a Cryptocurrency Exchange Files for Bankruptcy?
https://www.creditslips.org/creditslips/2022/02/wh...
DonkeyApple said:
Insightful stuff
I find your posts really interesting, thank you for taking the time.I have two questions:
What is it that you do for a living (if you don't mind saying, no problem if not of course).
Where do you see crypto values going next? Stay where they are? Fall away even further? Rally?
Zumbruk said:
What Happens If a Cryptocurrency Exchange Files for Bankruptcy?
https://www.creditslips.org/creditslips/2022/02/wh...
Fortunately, it's all very heavily regulat... Oh. https://www.creditslips.org/creditslips/2022/02/wh...
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