What’s your big gamble? (Volume 4)

[500 Miles]

petemurphy said:

MikeStroud said:

Maybe the Prolong works too well and he only gets 10 mins "down time" every 24 hours. Hardly surprising the poor fella is way behind with his TR1's he's completely knackered.

not to mention behind in his linkedin articles nudge nudge

I know...I know,.. it’s almost done.. just ensuring it’s posted at the right time..

[500 Miles]

Chris Type R said:

elanfan said:

Shnozz said:

As what I considered a chunky holder in RBG, did I Rea’s that right 500 Miles that you were considering buying the entire company?!

RNS 500M now owns 10%.

Trying to remember at what % point he was offered a NED within IDP....

DDDD showing some activity today.

Edited by Chris Type R on Monday 4th October 10:23

Not entirely sure he was offered a NED position at IDP (whoever this chap is)... he may have convinced them it was a good idea... coincidently a couple of the board decided to leave afterwards...

Some say, that he’s not really into NED positions as would rather keep a low profile.. and that he only joined IDP to ensure it was heading in the right direction...

All we know is that he undoubtably loves vodka..

I don’t think he’d want to join RBG as the board are hugely capable and he probably doesn’t believe he could add any value.. also his holding in Nightcap would be a massive conflict of interest.

That plus the fact you should never employ someone who talks about themselves in the 3rd person... they’re usually weird...

[500 Miles]

egomeister said:

500 Miles said:

That plus the fact you should never employ someone who talks about themselves in the 3rd person... they’re usually weird...

Definite sign of a wrong 'un - thanks for the warning!

[500 Miles]

Vibrativepuma said:

What are people's thoughts on Menzies? It doesnt seem to raise like the other airlines have done in the last two weeks, alot of sells around the 300 level.

My favourite newsagent although haven’t been in for a while...

[500 Miles]

petemurphy said:

best not name this bloke so lse types dont find anything interesting..

weird day. sng blue i was so nervous it would tank still. dddd up from nowhere ( why anyone know? ), abdx flying but big fomo on buying more. even odx blue. just deepclunge spoiling the party


and then everyone buying rbg which ended up red and is tempting. normally id say does a few busy months make up for a year of pain for bars? will they do better than idp? least nothing is boring

Agreed!

Deepclunge have been roasted by the latest version of Share Prophets - he’s even written to AIM to complain about them.. I’m a long term holder... which means I’ve spent a long time wondering why I’m holding them...

On RBG I would say that the market is usually forward looking and will forget the past, unless a huge amount of debt has arisen and not been dealt with.

All depends on the next update which I think (although don’t know) should be soon.

[500 Miles]

Phooey said:

BOO is where it was back in March 2020. I need to perhaps do a bit of Googling, but to go from roughly 180p March 2020 to then hit the 400's in June 2020 and back to 180ish makes me tempted to put some in the gamble folder.

re ASOS - There's a bit of that in the Intelligent Money PHO portfolio. Similar pattern to BOO although not dropped back to 2020 lows.

I listened to Boo’s latest results video and in my eyes the stock has been oversold, I bought in initially during the modern slavery scandal and topped up quite significantly over the;ast few trading days - if it keeps dropping this week then I might double down on it.. see how brave I’m feeling..

[500 Miles]

Chris Type R said:

500 Miles said:

I listened to Boo’s latest results video and in my eyes the stock has been oversold, I bought in initially during the modern slavery scandal and topped up quite significantly over the;ast few trading days - if it keeps dropping this week then I might double down on it.. see how brave I’m feeling..

Did you trade any in order to book profits on the rise 500M ?

No I stayed in, I believe in their overall strategy and think the sp could be a good multiple of where it currently is within a 18 months to 2 years. That approach meant I watch a decent size gain evaporate but it’s also allowed me to build a relatively sizeable position - if they increase to where I think they could get to then it becomes a decent return.

[500 Miles]

Pro Bono said:

500 Miles said:

Let's kick off the volume by naming our top 3 shares that we think have the most potential over the next 3 months...

Mine are :

Alpha Growth (ALGW) - Quarterly update due soon, could be interesting. This doubled in the last thread, I'm hopeful for the same in this thread.
Revolution Bars Group (RBG) - Trading already strong, even if restrictions stay in place - Euro's, pent up demand and good weather should drive growth.
Nightcap (NGHT) - Will they acquire another bar group? Their previous acquisition is knocking it out of the park.

GLA...

Just 4 months later

Alpha Growth (ALGW) - Lost 48%
Revolution Bars Group (RBG) - Gained 1%
Nightcap (NGHT) - Lost 31%

Lesson - don't get investment advice from a motoring website!

And definitely don't take financial advice from a thread on a motoring website called 'What's your big gamble?'

I'm very happy with my gains on those three shares since investing - the hospitality ones would obviously be higher if the threat of Covid wasn't still with us but management seem very confident in the future and after extensive research (pub crawls) I share that. If another lockdown does happen then obviously the sp's will crater.

Those three are still my top three personal choices, with Alpha I believe having more risk than the others but vastly more upside. (not financial advice obvs, this is the gamble thread - for intelligent investment discussion read the thread from the adults at Intelligent Money).

Amigo is probably my biggest gamble - Decent number of shares and it'll either go boom or bust (probably bust) .. Had to do something whilst the casino's were shut..

As the great Yogi Berra once said - it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.

[500 Miles]

Phooey said:

NGHT

https://www.insidermedia.com/news/south-east/night...

Nightcap has outlined the opening dates for a trio of London Cocktail Clubs, two of which are in Bristol and Reading.

The three sites – with the third being in the capital – will launch throughout November 2021 ahead of the company's planned opening schedule and in time for the Christmas trading period.

It comes as trading across the group continues to be strong and ahead of management's expectations.

The 3,500 sq ft site in Corn Street, Bristol will open on 18 November, followed by the 1,500 sq ft Mansion House operation at 78 Queen Victoria Street, central London on 22 November.

On 25 November, the company will open the 2,861 sq ft Gun Street base in Reading.

Chief executive Sarah Willingham said: "We continue to see strong trading across the group and are delighted to announce the beginning of our ambitious opening schedule for our various brilliant bar brands.

"The first London Cocktail Club site outside London, in Bristol, was launched in 2018 and has been very successful. We look forward to opening our second Bristol site in the prime Corn Street location."

I was in one of the London bars last night and it was absolutely rammed with lots of apparently very thirsty punters,

[500 Miles]

Nightcap just released a very good trading update…

3 November 2021



Nightcap plc

("Nightcap" or the "Company" or the "Group")



Trading update



Board expects results for 53 weeks ending 3 July 2022 will be significantly ahead of current market expectations



Nightcap (AIM: NGHT) is pleased to announce that following the very positive trading period during the 13-weeks from 28 June to 26 September 2021, the Board expects that the Group's results for the 53 weeks ending 3 July 2022 will be significantly ahead of current market expectations.

This trading update is being given ahead of the announcement (scheduled for 15 November 2021) of the Group's results for its financial year ended 27 June 2021.

The first 13 weeks of the new financial year have started strongly. Pent-up demand and disposable income built-up during lock-down has seen significant demand for experiential socialising across all the Group's cocktail bars, inside and outside of London.



Nightcap is pleased to report unaudited total net sales, per its management accounts, for the 13-week period of the new financial year of £7.6 million. This is a 68% increase compared to the same period in 2019, when there were no COVID-19 restrictions. The London Cocktail Club ("LCC") increased total net sales by circa 55% over 2019 and Adventure Bar Group ("ABG") by circa 75%. Like for like* sales at LCC were up 52% when compared to 2019 and like for like ABG sales were up 24% for the same period in 2019.



The Group's balance sheet is solid, with cash at bank of £12.2 million as at 26 September 2021.

Taking this ongoing strong performance of the Group's bars since the reopening of indoor hospitality into account, together with a strong pipeline of site openings and the levels of Christmas bookings, the Board remains confident about the Company's financial year ahead.

• a measure of growth in total net sales for sites that have been opened for at least a year, which the Board considers to be a widely used indicator in the hospitality sector to measure current trading performance. Within the context of this announcement the Group's trading over the 13-week period from 28 June to 26 September 2021 has been compared with the 13 weeks ended 29 September 2019.

Sarah Willingham, Chief Executive Officer of Nightcap, commented:



"I am delighted to announce this upgrade of our expectations for the 53 weeks ending 3 July 2022, as a result of such strong performance across the Group. Our teams have been incredible, working tirelessly to meet the unprecedented pent up demand. I can't thank our customers enough for their continued loyalty and commitment to helping, not just Nightcap, but the hospitality industry as a whole.

Nightcap was built during the Covid-19 global pandemic to acquire and expand leading brands in the drinks-led bar sector and whilst the macro-economic climate remains uncertain, we believe that this uncertainty is core to our opportunity.

As anticipated, new sites are becoming available as the fallout from the pandemic continues. We expect the end of the rent moratorium in March 2022 to further improve availability of excellent sites.

With the opening of three new sites in November and a further 23 sites in legal negotiations or under offer, we are confident both in the strength of our bar concepts and in our ability to continue our rapid expansion across the UK."

[500 Miles]

g4ry13 said:

Not sure how reliable the weekend markets are but the FTSE seems to have bounced back since the announcement yesterday.

Hello buddy - where are you seeing this? Looking at the futures just now I’m seeing a 4% drop... Although I’d rather go with your version

I’m going to join the gang that has Amigo as one of their most stable shares

Might use tomorrow’s turmoil to top up on some more bar shares..

[500 Miles]

g4ry13 said:

500 Miles said:

g4ry13 said:

Not sure how reliable the weekend markets are but the FTSE seems to have bounced back since the announcement yesterday.

Hello buddy - where are you seeing this? Looking at the futures just now I’m seeing a 4% drop... Although I’d rather go with your version

I’m going to join the gang that has Amigo as one of their most stable shares

Might use tomorrow’s turmoil to top up on some more bar shares..

I was just looking at the IG weekend market. I think you can see the prices from the front page.

https://www.ig.com/uk/welcome-page

Cool - I was looking at https://liveindex.org/ftse-futures/

I’m sure Boris will look at the lessons of Peppa Pig to save us all

[500 Miles]

AnotherUsername said:

I’ve been in amigo way too long for way too many shares and I’m just going to have to sit it out. Every trade I make seems to put me in a worse position than I was before.

Today isn’t as painful as I thought it would be.

Amigo being our ‘happy place’ didn’t last long… I’ve got a decent amount of them, maybe decent is the right word to use based upon todays share price movement. It’s still an out and out gamble - I’m stupid enough to buy more shares as part of a placing.

[500 Miles]

AnotherUsername said:

Me too and I’ll sell something good in order to do it!

[500 Miles]

chrishumes1978 said:

petemurphy said:

Idp continues to fall if only there was some way to boost it with an article or something

Agreed!

[500 Miles]

Philvrs said:

500 Miles said:

Good luck with the JV

Thanks buddy - I think it has huge market potential, looking forward to really getting started on it.

Needs a lot of work but should be interesting

[500 Miles]

Phooey said:

ALawson said:

Revs “Have a shot”…..nailed on for tomorrow!

RBG is on my hit list for when/if a lockdown is announced. I don't think it's a buy tomorrow, IMO.

Probably not a surprise when I say that I agree with the article only thing I don’t agree with is perhaps the optimistic view there won’t be a lock down - it must be coming, just depends whether it’s going to be before or after Xmas/New Year - hopefully if we do get a ‘circuit breaker’ it’s in January, bars are usually pretty empty and a lot of people to do dry January anyway - not a big month for hospitality.

Lockdown helps Nightcap more than Revs due to the formers more aggressive acquisition strategy, another lockdown will (unfortunately) mean some additional multi-site operators go bust or need rescuing - Nightcap will then pick them up relatively cheaply.

I’ve got a mate who has 4 bars in London, he called Saturday to say 80% of his team were off sick and he’d had to close two of the bars. Absolutely gutting this has hit at the busiest time of the year, especially when the venues were doing record trade recently.

[500 Miles]

Meeten-5dulx said:

i4got said:

elanfan said:

We have a board member and major shareholder on here. Might be along…

I'd certainly like to know whether I should cut my losses after today's increase or hold on.

Seemed good to me on my reading.
Focus on core products, higher margin, reviewed marketing.

I should be able to make more of a comment in the next 24 hours, unfortunately have a couple of hoops to jump through before I can.

What I can say is that I’m definitely not selling any of my shares, we’ve only just fixed the many issues caused by the previous management team - now it’s time to see the impact.

Will write more when I can.

[500 Miles]

chrishumes1978 said:

If your allowed, could you give your thoughts on bars as well…cheers

Yeah, sure.

No inside info but most hospitality companies have seen a significant drop off in custom (either cancelled corporate Xmas parties or just less people going out) - no surprise there... in other news - the pope is catholic and bears do apparently st in the woods..

Up until this point, the bars have been doing great trade - There was some temporary softness around fireworks night (it fell on a Friday this year which meant weekend trade would be impacted as people stood in fields and didn’t prop up bars), there was also a dip for the ‘girls night in campaign’ which was launched as a result of the reported spikings - however following these events the bars were busy again and making great progress. Only mentioning this as people took that softness as a general sign that bars were getting quieter after an initial Covid bounce.

Both Revs and Nightcap are in strong positions liquidity wise compared with some of their peers and in-particular compared with smaller multi-site operators. This represents an opportunity for both but favours nightcap.. Revs benefits as the more operators that go out of business, the less competition there is.. (no st Sherlock..) Nightcap benefits as they are actively looking to acquire distressed operators - they are also looking to open lots of new sites and the current Covid situation means those sites will be cheaper and more plentiful.

All going to plan, Nightcap will open 4 or 5 times as many new bars as Revs will over the next couple of years - although Revs currently has a larger estate than Nightcap and their bars tend to be larger.

It sounds counterintuitive but a lockdown is probably good for nightcap, their shares will definitely get hammered but from a mid to long term business perspective a lock down allows them to expand quicker and for less money - that should eventually give a strong rebound in the sp.

Revs run costs are significantly higher than Nightcap but they still have sufficient reserves to survive, not too many of their competitors could.

Obviously hospitality is not for the faint hearted, however, this is the gamble thread.. IF the UK can return to some normality then I strongly believe both shares will be at a multiple of their current levels, I know others will have a different and equally as valid view.

I’ve recently topped up on Nightcap and I’m considering topping up Revs - haven’t 100% decided yet..

On a different topic..
I spent today at THG up in Manchester and must admit I was really impressed by their setup as well as their management team - I always viewed them as a mini amazon however now have a better appreciation of their service offering. I was really impressed by their studios (10 video recording studios - biggest one could hold a private jet) and their content creation capabilities, not to mention their localisation abilities which can be used to launch products into new geographies.. one of the most impressive visits I’ve done - management team seemed very genuine and capable.

There shares have obviously cratered recently however I’m considering buying in now....

Ps.. apologies for the ramblings... 7 or 8 hours driving and a few hours of meetings, my brain is mush.. even more so than normal

[500 Miles]

chrishumes1978 said:

Good rise today for the bars….glad i got in on friday!

Edited by chrishumes1978 on Wednesday 22 December 17:27

Well timed!