What’s your big gamble? (Volume 4)
Discussion
vulture1 said:
500 Miles said:
chrishumes1978 said:
Good rise today for the bars….glad i got in on friday!
Well timed! Edited by chrishumes1978 on Wednesday 22 December 17:27
Today could be interesting on the back of the latest Covid news.. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59758784 we’re obviously not even close to being out of the woods but low volumes will have an outsized impact
IDP write up - Adds a bit of flavour to what we've been doing over the past 12 months.. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/innovaderma-pl-mark...
Feel free to 'like' if you're on LinkedIn.
Adam. said:
Very informative Mark - a root and branch upgrade!
Professional curiosity - what where the “inappropriate accounting treatments“ that you corrected?
Capitalisation of operational costs which then artificially inflated the profitability of the company in previous years. Professional curiosity - what where the “inappropriate accounting treatments“ that you corrected?
I would like to have described that in more robust terms….
Tbh, IDP is probably a reminder that many of these small companies do not have management teams that can be relied upon to do the right thing for shareholders - either because they don’t know what the right thing is, or because they have other motives.
Years ago there was talk about introducing tests etc for company directors, I thought this was over regulation at the time - my view has probably changed.
That post could have been a lot longer with all the things that have had to be corrected over the past 12 months, totally unbelievable and unacceptable.
I speak to quite a lot of shareholders and hearing how much there investments are down really boils my piss - especially when people have put in amounts of money that impact their life and their relationships.
Obviously as investors we all have to own the investment risks we take however it angers me when management teams apparently run things for their own benefit.
I’ll get off my soap box!
Apologies for the long delay posting the write up, had to get the results and a couple of other things out of the way.
Adam. said:
That is more than imprudent that is artificial inflation of the profit and borderline fraud.
Did the auditors sign off on that?
That’s my view as well - the auditors did sign it off, they are no longer our auditors.. you’ve got to question the logic of using a very very small audit firm based solely in Australia to audit a UK listed company where circa 90% of the revenue comes from the UK... Did the auditors sign off on that?
petemurphy said:
whens the next news due if you can say? ie will it drift down again! anything on the horizon?
I would expect a trading update early Q1 - now that we’re through the pain of righting the ship, we need to work on keeping the markets updated on our strategy and the gains we should see as a result of the changes that have been implemented. The stock currently has negative momentum - a slide of 400p down to 40p (ignoring the rights issue), that means more effort needs to go in to ensure the market understands the business and its potential.
In my opinion, the Skinny Tan brand alone should be valued at a multiple of the current value of the entire business - as a company we either need to ensure the market shares that opinion, or we’ll get snapped up on the cheap. Obviously just because I think the company is worth a lot more doesn’t mean it is - as someone put it before, don’t take finance advice from someone on a motoring forum - it’s a fair point
egomeister said:
It's so often the case with small cap s
tcos, and often hard to tell whether such actions are deliberate or just inept. Unfortunately, regulation doesn't seem to prevent any of these things from developing but end up mopping up when the money has gone. "lessons will be learned". When has the FCA even proactively tackled fraud or even shady behaviour on the main list? Likewise on AIM, the nomads are supposed to be the police, but so much seems to get through on an RNS that shouldn't or is not declared when it should be. Why would they block anything when they are rarely punished?
I said way back in this thread that half the battle on these stocks is to dodge the ste, as much judging what is good. It's great to hear that you are being able to influence some of these businesses and hopefully pushing them to operate more professionally.
Given what you have said above I find your like of Nightcap quite curious. For me the initial transactions that brought it to market stink, and mainly served to bail out the owners of a struggling business. I appreciate your position meant you were able to get involved in a different way to us plebs (I seem to recall you were involved pre-IPO?) so perhaps in that context the investment makes a lot more sense but it seems to me that the way they are structuring things are more self-serving than serving the wider shareholder. I'd love to hear a bit more of your take on this, but appreciate why you might not want to or be able to.
On Nightcap, I put some money in to buy shares at the initial listing (10p) then again at a placing (23p I think). tcos, and often hard to tell whether such actions are deliberate or just inept. Unfortunately, regulation doesn't seem to prevent any of these things from developing but end up mopping up when the money has gone. "lessons will be learned". When has the FCA even proactively tackled fraud or even shady behaviour on the main list? Likewise on AIM, the nomads are supposed to be the police, but so much seems to get through on an RNS that shouldn't or is not declared when it should be. Why would they block anything when they are rarely punished?I said way back in this thread that half the battle on these stocks is to dodge the s
te, as much judging what is good. It's great to hear that you are being able to influence some of these businesses and hopefully pushing them to operate more professionally.Given what you have said above I find your like of Nightcap quite curious. For me the initial transactions that brought it to market stink, and mainly served to bail out the owners of a struggling business. I appreciate your position meant you were able to get involved in a different way to us plebs (I seem to recall you were involved pre-IPO?) so perhaps in that context the investment makes a lot more sense but it seems to me that the way they are structuring things are more self-serving than serving the wider shareholder. I'd love to hear a bit more of your take on this, but appreciate why you might not want to or be able to.
I know quite a few people have concerns about the business, Tom Winnifrith is probably the most vocal however I must admit I just don’t agree with (hardly) any of his conclusions.
Before investing I met most of the board, the three key ones being Sarah, Michael and Toby - I would say they’ve got to be the most impressive and joined up management team I’ve ever come across by quite a long way.. I’ll purposely steer clear of discussing the individual points that have been made by TW and others.
Toby is very strong and credible, not just a numbers guy - Sarah is absolutely incredible and her passion and knowledge of the industry is unbelievable - Michael is also deeply impressive, he’s given me a second opinion on a couple of potential investments into private companies and his analysis has been very detailed and spot on - much better than mine.
My personal belief is that they are going to scale NGHT quickly over the next 12/24 months and I also believe the market cap will head north quickly.
Obviously Covid is the big unknown - if it continues to cause issues within hospitality over the next 3 to 6 months then it will probably help Nightcap scale faster and cheaper, if the impact of Covid lasts years then we’re all in trouble!
NGHT are very near the top of my list of shares I think have the most potential. Could obviously be very wrong however from what I’ve seen so far I’m pretty confident.
chrishumes1978 said:
So whats your top 3 shares to buy at this point alongside Nightcap?
I‘ll ignore IDP and CLCO incase I fall foul of any rules.. I’m going to stick with the three I said at the beginning of this volume, none of them are short term trading stocks but I’m confident each of them will be at a multiple of where they currently sit within the next year or two.
ALGW
NGHT
RBG
I’ll caveat this by saying I also hold Amigo Loans… so following my picks is not for the faint hearted.. Amigo was always an out and out gamble, it’ll either go bust or 10x
I hold about 60 to 70 listed stocks currently, most are larger companies but the smaller ones I’ve chosen because I think they have the most mcap growth potential.
Burwood said:
60-70-Blimey, id struggle to keep track of that many. I assume it's heavily weighted to a dozen or so. Fortune favours the brave as they say. It's an addictive pastime
Plan is to cut down to a manageable number in 2022, invariably when I do sell a stock it starts to rocket upwards.. . sods law. I'm going to go offline for the festive break and digitally detox, it's been a truly awful year by any measure however the banter on this thread has kept me sane(ish).
Have a very merry Xmas and I'll see you in 2022! - Hopefully we'll be able to have our long threatened pub crawl!
Good to see that even on the verge of war Babcock still manages to have a st day!
Bought into THG just before close - I waxed lyrical about them about 100p ago, thankfully my organisation skills (lack of) saved me from buying then…
Just waiting for Matt’s mum to start buying some shares and we’ll be sorted.
I’m trying to forget about Amigo….
t day!Bought into THG just before close - I waxed lyrical about them about 100p ago, thankfully my organisation skills (lack of) saved me from buying then…
Just waiting for Matt’s mum to start buying some shares and we’ll be sorted.
I’m trying to forget about Amigo….
Chris Type R said:
Maybe we're taking the wrong approach - it's all about the NFTs nowadays - https://www.ladbible.com/news/fart-jar-woman-could...
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