What’s your big gamble? (Volume 4)
Discussion
Chris Type R said:
Checking my P/F, it's dropped back to the lowest point it was following the invasion of Ukraine. Balls.
Wish I was only that bad!If it gets any worse, BOO & NXT will be buying clothes off customers, EMH & ZNWD will be pushing the lithium back into the ground and the companies expecting take over talks will just open the doors and say take what you want, the rest is going to the charity shop.
Skyedriver said:
Chris Type R said:
Checking my P/F, it's dropped back to the lowest point it was following the invasion of Ukraine. Balls.
If it gets any worse, BOO & NXT will be buying clothes off customers...
Chris Type R said:
Funny you should say that, I do work for a non-listed SME and one of the projects this year is to allow customers to return clothes they've previously purchased for resale once they've finished with them. It's a bit of a greenwash project - but will contribute to allowing me to keep feeding in good money after bad
how does that work? You inspect them and offer say 20% of original purchase price?Just as an aside, I've been dabbling in shares for around 20 years but started more intensively at the beginning of CV19 when making a profit was almost like shooting fish in a barrel. I started looking towards the profit going towards a Lancia Integrale. Never got there, can't afford a 1/24 scale model now.
Can’t remember the exact number, but history says there’s usually up to 10 bear rallies before the big leg down. So we’re probably nowhere near the bottom, yet. Or it could go to the moon next week. No one knows, but sentiment is negative. What I do know is it will be the death of a lot of stuff in this big gamble thread (mainly AIM).
Adam. said:
Chris Type R said:
Funny you should say that, I do work for a non-listed SME and one of the projects this year is to allow customers to return clothes they've previously purchased for resale once they've finished with them. It's a bit of a greenwash project - but will contribute to allowing me to keep feeding in good money after bad
how does that work? You inspect them and offer say 20% of original purchase price?Shnozz said:
Anyone want to give predictions as to where the bottom will be or what the catalyst shall be for a change in direction? I appreciate crystal ball etc but interested to know what optimism/pessimism there is amongst investors.
Some catalysts would be ceasefire / end to hostilities in Ukraine / resumption of trade with Russia. In my view any of these would only offer a brief respite as globally the damage has been done with the combination of Covid / Shutdowns / Energy crisis and global inflation has to work it's way through. I don't think we've yet begun to see the impact. Locally we have the consequences of Brexit to filter through too. Property collapse and reduction in manufacturing in China is/will be a major issue too.That's speculation and I know that I know very little beyond the fact that winter is coming and it's going to be expensive.
Peace between Russia and Ukraine. The US stopping raising rates would be enough as well. But currently that's still ongoing.
I've nothing us tech my main gambles are all lithium based in miners or blnk as a charger.
Everything else is good quality high div payers and I basicly write off the capital value of them in my head so even if they go down I'm happy buying more.
I've nothing us tech my main gambles are all lithium based in miners or blnk as a charger.
Everything else is good quality high div payers and I basicly write off the capital value of them in my head so even if they go down I'm happy buying more.
Interesting replies, thanks. Mirrors my own views but even with resolution of the Ukraine conflict, the damage to Russian trade is surely longstanding, albeit I appreciate conflict and the uncertainty it brings with it is always a factor itself.
I am at a crossroads. I have a bearish forecast at the best of times and see only further gloom on the horizon. However, I have also berated myself for failing to capitalise on opportunity in the past by being concerned I would be trying to catch falling knives.
I am at a crossroads. I have a bearish forecast at the best of times and see only further gloom on the horizon. However, I have also berated myself for failing to capitalise on opportunity in the past by being concerned I would be trying to catch falling knives.
Thoughts from my old FA, when I was an expat and had money:
The S&P 500 index has fallen an average of 33% during bear markets since 1945, taking 13 months to go from peak to trough and 27 months to get back to breakeven.
The most recent bear market for the S&P 500 ran from February 19, 2020 through March 23, 2020. The index fell 34% in that one-month period and was the shortest bear market ever, while the largest decline occurred in the 2007-2009 bear market where the S&P 500 fell 57%.
So what can investors do amidst a bear market?
Investors should avoid panic selling and not sell at the bottom. Selling when prices have come down only locks in losses. Plus, it's only a paper loss up until you sell. From the historical data above, we see that markets will eventually recover, and so we highly recommend to stay invested in order not to miss the rebound.
For those with money on the sidelines, you may consider buying into the dip or apply a dollar cost averaging strategy to take advantage of a subsequent recovery in the market.
During this period of volatility, we recommend investors to position towards Quality and Value in their portfolios.
The Nikko AM Shenton Global Opportunities Fund, for example, invests in "Future Quality" stocks, focusing on cash flow, competitive advantage, growth and return on capital metrics through a compounding capital strategy that helps attain and sustain high returns on investment.
The S&P 500 index has fallen an average of 33% during bear markets since 1945, taking 13 months to go from peak to trough and 27 months to get back to breakeven.
The most recent bear market for the S&P 500 ran from February 19, 2020 through March 23, 2020. The index fell 34% in that one-month period and was the shortest bear market ever, while the largest decline occurred in the 2007-2009 bear market where the S&P 500 fell 57%.
So what can investors do amidst a bear market?
Investors should avoid panic selling and not sell at the bottom. Selling when prices have come down only locks in losses. Plus, it's only a paper loss up until you sell. From the historical data above, we see that markets will eventually recover, and so we highly recommend to stay invested in order not to miss the rebound.
For those with money on the sidelines, you may consider buying into the dip or apply a dollar cost averaging strategy to take advantage of a subsequent recovery in the market.
During this period of volatility, we recommend investors to position towards Quality and Value in their portfolios.
The Nikko AM Shenton Global Opportunities Fund, for example, invests in "Future Quality" stocks, focusing on cash flow, competitive advantage, growth and return on capital metrics through a compounding capital strategy that helps attain and sustain high returns on investment.
dom9 said:
During this period of volatility, we recommend investors to position towards Quality and Value in their portfolios.
This proved to be the most successful buying for me during the Covid bear market. The temptation is to average down the AIM gambles now, but smart hat on says that it's folly to do so. I really need to shift most of my gambles during the next bull run. dom9 said:
Investors should avoid panic selling and not sell at the bottom. Selling when prices have come down only locks in losses. Plus, it's only a paper loss up until you sell. From the historical data above, we see that markets will eventually recover, and so we highly recommend to stay invested in order not to miss the rebound.
wise words, I am prepared to ride it out rather than try to time the marketPaddymcc said:
andy ted said:
Or THG!
i timed my purchase at 9am well 
Wonder has it leaked its going to be a 0.75% interest rate rise
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