What’s your big gamble? (Volume 4)
Discussion
twohoursfromlondon said:
4D Pharma just announced they’ve gone into administration, so that’s my SIPP well and truly screwed.
RNS here - https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/D...twohoursfromlondon said:
4D Pharma just announced they’ve gone into administration, so that’s my SIPP well and truly screwed.
I’ve kept a small holding in them because I like what they’re trying to do but the board seem to me to be mad scientists. They had a finance deal with Oxford but decided they could do better and for some stupid reason told Oxford about this so Oxford pulled the plug having had their deal reneged on. The 4D board are idiots for how they’ve handled this.
A deal could be done and it blow over or a fire sale and we get nothing.
MikeStroud said:
I’ve kept a small holding in them because I like what they’re trying to do but the board seem to me to be mad scientists.
They had a finance deal with Oxford but decided they could do better and for some stupid reason told Oxford about this so Oxford pulled the plug having had their deal reneged on. The 4D board are idiots for how they’ve handled this.
A deal could be done and it blow over or a fire sale and we get nothing.
I don't really know the stock but I saw there was some odd behaviour regarding the funding. As far as I understand they would need more funding anyway but this Oxford debacle is really shooting yourself in the foot. I wonder if there is any recourse for shareholders on the basis of negligent management? They had a finance deal with Oxford but decided they could do better and for some stupid reason told Oxford about this so Oxford pulled the plug having had their deal reneged on. The 4D board are idiots for how they’ve handled this.
A deal could be done and it blow over or a fire sale and we get nothing.
Maybe a sympathetic rise tomorrow for GGP based on the prospect of a ban on gold from Russia - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61941589
're GGP, I may be guilty of falling into the LSE hype trap, but there does appear to be some very knowledgeable posters and they are very confident. Hopefully I have this correct:
GGP have a share of the Haviron licence that will almost certainly become a mine, possibly by Spring 2024.
They have other licences that they are exploring, but they have nothing economic yet, and based on averages you have to assume they won't.
One possible trigger to a change in share price is that the joint venture partner on haviron, Newcrest, have the right to buy a further 5%, this will give us a value for the whole project. A process is being gone through at present with no published end date but in theory could be any day, my view is it will definitely be this year!
The other trigger is that GGP are talking to banks regarding loans and if they get one, which would be unusual for a gold explorer because of the risk, it would signify that mining is looking very good so should drive the price up.
Please do correct me if I have anything wrong, or with so much going on anyone thinks I have missed a salient point.
GGP have a share of the Haviron licence that will almost certainly become a mine, possibly by Spring 2024.
They have other licences that they are exploring, but they have nothing economic yet, and based on averages you have to assume they won't.
One possible trigger to a change in share price is that the joint venture partner on haviron, Newcrest, have the right to buy a further 5%, this will give us a value for the whole project. A process is being gone through at present with no published end date but in theory could be any day, my view is it will definitely be this year!
The other trigger is that GGP are talking to banks regarding loans and if they get one, which would be unusual for a gold explorer because of the risk, it would signify that mining is looking very good so should drive the price up.
Please do correct me if I have anything wrong, or with so much going on anyone thinks I have missed a salient point.
Chris Type R said:
I've lost a big chunk (for me) in this, nearly 10% of my pension pot. I'm not feeling too bad though. I knew the risks, and the vast bulk of what I had in here was off a couple of shares where I saw 100%+ gains. That's all gone now, so hugely disappointing but at least I've got 20 years until I retire. Everyone said online cloths was the future bit it's dying right now as well as thr highstreet. Woman splurging on cloths they don't need in the middle of household budgets being sqeezed will put a filurthet dent in them.
Easy jet could come good again people always find money for a holiday.
Easy jet could come good again people always find money for a holiday.
TheHangingJudge said:
're GGP, I may be guilty of falling into the LSE hype trap, but there does appear to be some very knowledgeable posters and they are very confident. Hopefully I have this correct:
GGP have a share of the Haviron licence that will almost certainly become a mine, possibly by Spring 2024.
They have other licences that they are exploring, but they have nothing economic yet, and based on averages you have to assume they won't.
One possible trigger to a change in share price is that the joint venture partner on haviron, Newcrest, have the right to buy a further 5%, this will give us a value for the whole project. A process is being gone through at present with no published end date but in theory could be any day, my view is it will definitely be this year!
The other trigger is that GGP are talking to banks regarding loans and if they get one, which would be unusual for a gold explorer because of the risk, it would signify that mining is looking very good so should drive the price up.
Please do correct me if I have anything wrong, or with so much going on anyone thinks I have missed a salient point.
From what i've gathered Newcrest are trying to get the 5% valued on a earlier set of results (ie cheaper! no surprise) where the resource isn't so well explored, GGP are trying to get it valued on later results that prove it's grown since (and this is thought still to be under egging it). Newcrest/GGP are building a decline to the Ore body, ie Gold/copper etc will be mined for sure, Newcrest have the infrastructure nearby from an old exhausted mine ready to process this new mine. Lots of chit chat about open at depth and talk of one of the best gold discoveries in recent times and that it's getting bigger with each set of drill results. Hyperbole perhaps some, but it will be a mine relatively soon. All caveats exist about construction delays/problems and other possible mining gotchas but the gold is definitely there, just how expensive it is to get to (meant to be low'ish) and what level of rewards GGP get. GGP have a share of the Haviron licence that will almost certainly become a mine, possibly by Spring 2024.
They have other licences that they are exploring, but they have nothing economic yet, and based on averages you have to assume they won't.
One possible trigger to a change in share price is that the joint venture partner on haviron, Newcrest, have the right to buy a further 5%, this will give us a value for the whole project. A process is being gone through at present with no published end date but in theory could be any day, my view is it will definitely be this year!
The other trigger is that GGP are talking to banks regarding loans and if they get one, which would be unusual for a gold explorer because of the risk, it would signify that mining is looking very good so should drive the price up.
Please do correct me if I have anything wrong, or with so much going on anyone thinks I have missed a salient point.
They have other areas they own but optimistic to think these will give any other significant finds but not impossible.
Price decline has been quite significant and steadily relentless, lots think the current price is over sold, but they'd have said that at a lot higher prices too!
covmutley said:
Chris Type R said:
I've lost a big chunk (for me) in this, nearly 10% of my pension pot. I'm not feeling too bad though. I knew the risks, and the vast bulk of what I had in here was off a couple of shares where I saw 100%+ gains. That's all gone now, so hugely disappointing but at least I've got 20 years until I retire. So sorry to read your post. It is a shock when this happens.
As you say, at least you have time in your side.
Expect you will now be wary of holding 10% of your portfolio in a miniscule, loss making company carrying debt (hope you don't have any AML.L).
I learnt my lesson about that 30 years ago and since then, have only held UK large cap., profitable, mostly international businesses. In the pharma sector, I do have a long-standing GSK holding, but even they don't find it easy to discover successful new drugs. Costly research, but far more new drug failures than winners in that business sector.
A good example of sheer size permitting time to recover, is BP. Any smaller company having that Gulf of Mexico disaster, would have folded. BP had the cash and resources available, for there to be time to make management changes, enabling a gradually recovery to be successfully achieved.
Good luck to you.
TheHangingJudge said:
. Hopefully I have this correct:
GGP have a share of the Haviron licence that will almost certainly become a mine, possibly by Spring 2024.
They have other licences that they are exploring, but they have nothing economic yet, and based on averages you have to assume they won't.
One possible trigger to a change in share price is that the joint venture partner on haviron, Newcrest, have the right to buy a further 5%, this will give us a value for the whole project.
Don’t think there is any “almost” about is there? The resource has been proven and every time they extend they find more shiny stuff.GGP have a share of the Haviron licence that will almost certainly become a mine, possibly by Spring 2024.
They have other licences that they are exploring, but they have nothing economic yet, and based on averages you have to assume they won't.
One possible trigger to a change in share price is that the joint venture partner on haviron, Newcrest, have the right to buy a further 5%, this will give us a value for the whole project.
Newcrest are the 80% (?) owners and funding all the exploration and mining. They want to take the option of a further 5% and the valuation goes to arbitration, and we then know what GGP is really worth
Adam. said:
TheHangingJudge said:
. Hopefully I have this correct:
GGP have a share of the Haviron licence that will almost certainly become a mine, possibly by Spring 2024.
They have other licences that they are exploring, but they have nothing economic yet, and based on averages you have to assume they won't.
One possible trigger to a change in share price is that the joint venture partner on haviron, Newcrest, have the right to buy a further 5%, this will give us a value for the whole project.
Don’t think there is any “almost” about is there? The resource has been proven and every time they extend they find more shiny stuff.GGP have a share of the Haviron licence that will almost certainly become a mine, possibly by Spring 2024.
They have other licences that they are exploring, but they have nothing economic yet, and based on averages you have to assume they won't.
One possible trigger to a change in share price is that the joint venture partner on haviron, Newcrest, have the right to buy a further 5%, this will give us a value for the whole project.
Newcrest are the 80% (?) owners and funding all the exploration and mining. They want to take the option of a further 5% and the valuation goes to arbitration, and we then know what GGP is really worth
Jon39 said:
covmutley said:
Chris Type R said:
I've lost a big chunk (for me) in this, nearly 10% of my pension pot. I'm not feeling too bad though. I knew the risks, and the vast bulk of what I had in here was off a couple of shares where I saw 100%+ gains. That's all gone now, so hugely disappointing but at least I've got 20 years until I retire. So sorry to read your post. It is a shock when this happens.
As you say, at least you have time in your side.
Expect you will now be wary of holding 10% of your portfolio in a miniscule, loss making company carrying debt (hope you don't have any AML.L).
I learnt my lesson about that 30 years ago and since then, have only held UK large cap., profitable, mostly international businesses. In the pharma sector, I do have a long-standing GSK holding, but even they don't find it easy to discover successful new drugs. Costly research, but far more new drug failures than winners in that business sector.
A good example of sheer size permitting time to recover, is BP. Any smaller company having that Gulf of Mexico disaster, would have folded. BP had the cash and resources available, for there to be time to make management changes, enabling a gradually recovery to be successfully achieved.
Good luck to you.
Learnt a lesson and will be sticking to funds i think, which was the vast majority anyway.
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