What’s your big gamble? (Volume 4)

[Skyedriver]

Adam. said:

No choice now, the latter

Hold and ride it out? Beginning to wonder how long this slide is going to last, thinking of accepting the not inconsiderable hit and sitting on the sidelines for a while. Leave my various funds running but abandon the single company stock.

[Mallard126]

I've thrown another chunk at RR this morning, averaging down again. I'm hoping the "buy blue chips as they'll be strong enough to bounce back" line holds true!

[vulture1]

Only potential trigger for a change would be an end to the war. Release the price of food and energy might jolt the system.

[Shnozz]

Skyedriver said:

And repeat, Jeez this is painful.

This really is relentless. I’m down 40% with no end in sight. Pension also brutally hit.

[ferrisbueller]

Adam. said:

Within a mutual fund structure yes they can, they can’t prop trade.

And the Chinese walls between research and buy side are highly regulated.

Forgive my skepticism.

[Adam.]

ferrisbueller said:

Adam. said:

Within a mutual fund structure yes they can, they can’t prop trade.

And the Chinese walls between research and buy side are highly regulated.

Forgive my skepticism.

given past behaviour I completely understand, very different (and boring) world now, hence I moved

[anonymous-user]

Chris Type R said:

SimonTheSailor said:

EUA heading towards 5p - that's really f*cked me up !!

Not surprising considering the trading loss & no significant hints given about the sale process.

I'm down a chunky (for me) wedge

Snap! My biggest gamble by a long way... ergo a big loss by a long way. Until the war is over or a sale comes this is going to bump along the bottom... and both of those must be a year off, assuming nuclear armageddon doesn't happen first. I am trying to forget it and focus on other stuff but can't help but look most days! there is still a risk of losing everything even though we only ever consider the upside of a sale.

[Vanity Projects]

Holding steady here, bought in at 83p on centrica so already down there 4%.

FMG dropped 4% overnight (recession on deck bad for copper)

My shorts on spx and nasdaq are countering it though so treading water (if we pretend inflation doesn’t exist).

[Adam.]

MikeStroud said:

Snap! My biggest gamble by a long way... ergo a big loss by a long way. Until the war is over or a sale comes this is going to bump along the bottom... and both of those must be a year off, assuming nuclear armageddon doesn't happen first. I am trying to forget it and focus on other stuff but can't help but look most days! there is still a risk of losing everything even though we only ever consider the upside of a sale.

what did you make of the AGM statemtns Mike?

[TCX]

Afternoon,bought 111k shares in eua today,saw RNs yesterday as reasonable, avoiding the noise,unlike some on LSE who pumped it up then cut n run,have increased since war started, stupidity exposed,unless it comes off,who knows?
Amur...written off
Znwd still holding but not exactly happy
Must....hate suspended shares
Ggp still optimistic
You know what they say...If you can keep your head while all around you loose theirs.......you probably miss understood the situation
Good luck all

[Adam.]

thanks TCX - I hope at 5.5p most of the risk has been priced in

obviously it go to zero but risk-adjusted price can't go much lower now

will be dialling into EUA AGM call

[Skyedriver]

TCX said:

Znwd still holding but not exactly happy

You know what they say...If you can keep your head while all around you loose theirs.......you probably miss understood the situation
Good luck all

ZNWD: I'm over 50% down on this and EMH. Thought lithium was in great demand!

[TCX]

Skyedriver said:

TCX said:

Znwd still holding but not exactly happy

You know what they say...If you can keep your head while all around you loose theirs.......you probably miss understood the situation
Good luck all

ZNWD: I'm over 50% down on this and EMH. Thought lithium was in great demand!

Thing that continues to amaze me is prem holding most of its gains based on lithium story
Seems green agenda in Europe at least is very much on back burner

[TCX]

Adam. said:

thanks TCX - I hope at 5.5p most of the risk has been priced in

obviously it go to zero but risk-adjusted price can't go much lower now

will be dialling into EUA AGM call

I get the people calling it a scam,but there's been so much news this last year,I'm still confident ,I'm not some one who revels in others loss or the feet up I'm confident,don't care how low it goes style,I would just say to anyone in the red,I've been 70% down in other shares n still sold for a profit,being in a static position due to sp dropping is never a position I'd choose,but here we are

[Nitro182]

Vanity Projects said:

Holding steady here, bought in at 83p on centrica so already down there 4%.

Iv also purchased some of Centrica , at 81p this morning. Quite pleased with the performance given its been a massively red day all around yet CNA saw good support once it dipped into the 79p range. Natural gas prices have tanked big time today so hopefully that bodes well for us ?

[Mallard126]

When everything is deep red, TRX is holding up ok around its current level (which IMHO is still cheap). That gives me some confidence that it's doing ok. I bloody well hope so, I'm balls deep in it!

[Adam.]

I am in TRX, holding up well

As it should frankly, wish BOD gave more updates

[Chris Type R]

It may well be time to transfer in some more capital to my SIPP to be in a position to pick up some discounted stock......

[Mallard126]

Adam. said:

I am in TRX, holding up well

As it should frankly, wish BOD gave more updates

Must be a trading update due soon!

EDIT: Their FY is calendar year so H1 trading update probably won't be available until early September. I might buy a bit more before then!

Edited by Mallard126 on Friday 1st July 11:06

[anonymous-user]

Adam. said:

MikeStroud said:

Snap! My biggest gamble by a long way... ergo a big loss by a long way. Until the war is over or a sale comes this is going to bump along the bottom... and both of those must be a year off, assuming nuclear armageddon doesn't happen first. I am trying to forget it and focus on other stuff but can't help but look most days! there is still a risk of losing everything even though we only ever consider the upside of a sale.

what did you make of the AGM statemtns Mike?

The Annual Report you mean?

Well on a positive they still have a lot of cash and a lot of assets in the ground. They are still progressing a short term sale strategy as well as longer term "EUA2" Hydrogen/global explorer business.

On the negative side, the only risk I ever foresaw (being in Russia) has happened and has bitten the sp severely. SP won't recover til war over or sale happens both of which I would say are at least 6 months away for various reasons. Also what happened to the "buyer" who had done their DD? The fact that 2 months ago they appointed a new M&A expert director and in May also appointed KPMG as their agent for the sale suggests to me that the original buyer has pulled out (after all the global landscape has changed considerably since they did their DD) and they are starting afresh again. Also I am not a fan of this bod, their communication is pants; 9 months ago they said they had received a draft JORC but we've not heard a thing on that since (was it agreed, what reserves etc were in it etc). Same lack of communication with so many other things.

In summary I like the strategy of short term sale plus long term business. I like the resources/reserves they have and the fact they are needed now. BUT the biggest risk (their location in Russia) has bitten us badly and I think the bod are very poor at communicating what is going on (but don't tell lse or Telegram I said that else I will be lynched as one must bloke smoke up the bod's ass at all times!) It could still go to zero as who know what Putin etc will do next or we could get a nice divvy in the next year followed by a decent divvy every year thereafter.

It's a complete gamble as per this thread. Currently I am losing that gamble by a long way ! I'll not be getting out as the risk / reward is still ok with me. I don't think we have seen the bottom of the sp yet. With every passing day of no new good news (not rehashed stuff) this will dip further. I'm on the cusp of ignoring it now for 6 months as I can't see anything positive happening in that time frame (either war ending or sale happening) and life is too short to be looking at an sp every day.

PS - Sorry that my summary is as long as the initial comments!