What’s your big gamble? (Volume 4)
Discussion
MikeStroud said:
Adam. said:
MikeStroud said:
Snap! My biggest gamble by a long way... ergo a big loss by a long way. Until the war is over or a sale comes this is going to bump along the bottom... and both of those must be a year off, assuming nuclear armageddon doesn't happen first. I am trying to forget it and focus on other stuff but can't help but look most days! there is still a risk of losing everything even though we only ever consider the upside of a sale.
what did you make of the AGM statemtns Mike?Well on a positive they still have a lot of cash and a lot of assets in the ground. They are still progressing a short term sale strategy as well as longer term "EUA2" Hydrogen/global explorer business.
On the negative side, the only risk I ever foresaw (being in Russia) has happened and has bitten the sp severely. SP won't recover til war over or sale happens both of which I would say are at least 6 months away for various reasons. Also what happened to the "buyer" who had done their DD? The fact that 2 months ago they appointed a new M&A expert director and in May also appointed KPMG as their agent for the sale suggests to me that the original buyer has pulled out (after all the global landscape has changed considerably since they did their DD) and they are starting afresh again. Also I am not a fan of this bod, their communication is pants; 9 months ago they said they had received a draft JORC but we've not heard a thing on that since (was it agreed, what reserves etc were in it etc). Same lack of communication with so many other things.
In summary I like the strategy of short term sale plus long term business. I like the resources/reserves they have and the fact they are needed now. BUT the biggest risk (their location in Russia) has bitten us badly and I think the bod are very poor at communicating what is going on (but don't tell lse or Telegram I said that else I will be lynched as one must bloke smoke up the bod's ass at all times!) It could still go to zero as who know what Putin etc will do next or we could get a nice divvy in the next year followed by a decent divvy every year thereafter.
It's a complete gamble as per this thread. Currently I am losing that gamble by a long way ! I'll not be getting out as the risk / reward is still ok with me. I don't think we have seen the bottom of the sp yet. With every passing day of no new good news (not rehashed stuff) this will dip further. I'm on the cusp of ignoring it now for 6 months as I can't see anything positive happening in that time frame (either war ending or sale happening) and life is too short to be looking at an sp every day.
PS - Sorry that my summary is as long as the initial comments!
EasyJet are down again on news of the COO leaving the business.
I’m buying. I know they’ve been beaten up over covid, and the staffing issues are causing cancellations and bad news at the moment, and it may well be a rough few years ahead, but I don’t think they’re going anywhere, and for a long term hold, it’s a good price to buy in.
I’m buying. I know they’ve been beaten up over covid, and the staffing issues are causing cancellations and bad news at the moment, and it may well be a rough few years ahead, but I don’t think they’re going anywhere, and for a long term hold, it’s a good price to buy in.
Greshamst said:
EasyJet are down again on news of the COO leaving the business.
I’m buying. I know they’ve been beaten up over covid, and the staffing issues are causing cancellations and bad news at the moment, and it may well be a rough few years ahead, but I don’t think they’re going anywhere, and for a long term hold, it’s a good price to buy in.
I topped up at 400 and thinking of doing it again. My mindset has changed in the last week. Rather than being too down about the low share price, I am using as an opportunity to top up. If things recover to where they were at Christmas I will be in a strong position. May take some time though!I’m buying. I know they’ve been beaten up over covid, and the staffing issues are causing cancellations and bad news at the moment, and it may well be a rough few years ahead, but I don’t think they’re going anywhere, and for a long term hold, it’s a good price to buy in.
How we all doing?
I think most of us entered the market again after the covid sell off. I always wondered what it would have felt like having been an investor from prior covid and holding throughout, now I get to feel it. Sea of red everywhere, down down deeper and down.
I've held up well down from 500% to 400% profit since April 2020. Had a large cash holding since November 2021 and had my second transport company buyout, what are the chances. 1st it was stagecoach and recently it was go-ahead group. Bought go-ahead after a 30m fine for keeping government money... entered at 500p and sold at 1600p. That helps offset big losses in boohoo and saga.
Been buying easyjet and jdw of late, every 10% fall. Why well easyjet is well hedged, not alot of debt compared to iag as they have done there large rights issue. Market cap is closing in on covid low and the period around 2013, madness. Been buying OTB from 200 aswell and joules who are almost priced to go bust.
Bargains to be had with stocks revisiting covid lows, conversely this board is quiet. When inflation levels off and growth resumes one can hope it will be like 2020/2021 again.
I think most of us entered the market again after the covid sell off. I always wondered what it would have felt like having been an investor from prior covid and holding throughout, now I get to feel it. Sea of red everywhere, down down deeper and down.
I've held up well down from 500% to 400% profit since April 2020. Had a large cash holding since November 2021 and had my second transport company buyout, what are the chances. 1st it was stagecoach and recently it was go-ahead group. Bought go-ahead after a 30m fine for keeping government money... entered at 500p and sold at 1600p. That helps offset big losses in boohoo and saga.
Been buying easyjet and jdw of late, every 10% fall. Why well easyjet is well hedged, not alot of debt compared to iag as they have done there large rights issue. Market cap is closing in on covid low and the period around 2013, madness. Been buying OTB from 200 aswell and joules who are almost priced to go bust.
Bargains to be had with stocks revisiting covid lows, conversely this board is quiet. When inflation levels off and growth resumes one can hope it will be like 2020/2021 again.
indestructible focus said:
Bargains to be had with stocks revisiting covid lows, conversely this board is quiet. When inflation levels off and growth resumes one can hope it will be like 2020/2021 again.
Quiet because many licking their wounds I expect. My PF is shot to s
t, so holding for recovery now as I dont want to crystalise losses.My 2c - inflation has peaked, we now need inflation to fall, IR fears to ease, Ukraine / Russia to negotiate a truce and some sense of normality in supply chains. Or at least some of them! All will happen, just a matter of when. Our guys say EPS has now fully priced in an average recession (27% fall, GFC was 40%) so in theory around here is a good entry point.
No one guesses the bottom 100%, everyoine jumps back in on the start of the rise.
Adam. said:
indestructible focus said:
Bargains to be had with stocks revisiting covid lows, conversely this board is quiet. When inflation levels off and growth resumes one can hope it will be like 2020/2021 again.
Quiet because many licking their wounds I expect. My PF is shot to st, so holding for recovery now as I dont want to crystalise losses.My 2c - inflation has peaked, we now need inflation to fall, IR fears to ease, Ukraine / Russia to negotiate a truce and some sense of normality in supply chains. Or at least some of them! All will happen, just a matter of when. Our guys say EPS has now fully priced in an average recession (27% fall, GFC was 40%) so in theory around here is a good entry point.
No one guesses the bottom 100%, everyoine jumps back in on the start of the rise.
I've actually been looking at Carnival again.
TED: up over 16% today, still along way down and still lower than my buy in price but I wonder if news incoming? AGM in a week or so IIRC
EQT: dropping back after a decent rise a few days ago. I sold at the recent top even though it was at a loss will buy back in again when it's back in the 5's. That's what I should have done with AVCT & SNG.
EQT: dropping back after a decent rise a few days ago. I sold at the recent top even though it was at a loss will buy back in again when it's back in the 5's. That's what I should have done with AVCT & SNG.
Decent RNS from PSN, LGEN, WOSG, all have dropped quite a bit of late.
And half an hour in PSN down a further 5%!
Was dithering about trying to decide if I should dive in at 8.00, got side tracked by two dogs and pleased I didn't. WOSG jumped up at open but then slipped back. Still in positive territory as is LGEN though.
Note TED (mentioned yesterday) in the red again this morning.
And half an hour in PSN down a further 5%!
Was dithering about trying to decide if I should dive in at 8.00, got side tracked by two dogs and pleased I didn't. WOSG jumped up at open but then slipped back. Still in positive territory as is LGEN though.
Note TED (mentioned yesterday) in the red again this morning.
Edited by Skyedriver on Thursday 7th July 08:31
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