What’s your big gamble? (Volume 4)

[vulture1]

Kodal ticking up now anyone else still in?

[breadvan]

Any hot tips for new ISA money tomorrow?

Is there such a thing as gamble/income share rather than gamble/growth?

[egomeister]

Mallard126 said:

I can't get my head round the lack of interest in TRX.

Great trading update. Steady, sustainable and profitable growth. Directors buying in today but it's struggling to stay north of 0.55

I'm hoping the 100-1 consolidation goes through soon and the perception of the business changes as it'll no longer be a "penny stock." I'm still holding all my shares and will probably add more as long as it's sub 0.6 with a view to bagging at least from there but I'd quite like it to make an upward move now!

The directors purchases aren't big at around £8k each when they took nearly $1m out of the company between them last year. Any idea what the score is with the purchase? Its curious that they both buy at the same price and quantity on the same day - feels like a very specific transaction.

The numbers aren't bad compared to many AIM companies - clearly there is a business there unlike some however, cash is down in the 22 accounts, as are assets, whilst borrowings and liabilities are up. Doesn't look like they've quite turned the corner, but its a trend to watch as they seem to be at that inflection point.

[Mallard126]

I'm guessing they've bought $10k each today - possibly the first opportunity to do so following the year end closed period.

I guess what the year end accounts don't necessarily make clear is the fact that they reported a profit in Q4 which was very much in line with the plans after several years of loss making and they're well enough financed to ensure that they don't need to raise funds/dilute shareholder value. Compared to a lot of the basket cases on AIM they're a gold standard!

I guess the half year update will be really significant in showing that Q4 wasn't a fluke or a one-off and that the direction of travel is sustainable.

[egomeister]

Yeah, I'd be a lot happier seeing that performance sustained to give some more confidence, although at a quick glance cash burn does seem to have slowed in the year end numbers (trade payables have increased though)

I see they've just put out another paid research report which isn't a fantastic sign. In the summary on the Hardman website it says the revolving credit facility has increased to 10m - do you know what the logic is there, because if they are cash generative it shouldn't be an issue?

[Phooey]

breadvan said:

Any hot tips for new ISA money tomorrow?

Yeah, stay away from this thread and the AIM markets

[Philvrs]

breadvan said:

Any hot tips for new ISA money tomorrow?

Is there such a thing as gamble/income share rather than gamble/growth?

BATS, currently at 52week lows, but good dividend, still profitable but sentiment/forecast is for shrinking market/market share, I’ve read.

[vulture1]

Phooey said:

breadvan said:

Any hot tips for new ISA money tomorrow?

Yeah, stay away from this thread and the AIM markets

Theres inverse cramer but youd be best investing in inverese all of us.

[vulture1]

Philvrs said:

breadvan said:

Any hot tips for new ISA money tomorrow?

Is there such a thing as gamble/income share rather than gamble/growth?

BATS, currently at 52week lows, but good dividend, still profitable but sentiment/forecast is for shrinking market/market share, I’ve read.

Reminds me of the sipsons cigerette company. "well frankly all of our customers keep dying"

[Legend83]

vulture1 said:

Kodal ticking up now anyone else still in?

Yep now 468% up and holding for the big money!

[Adam.]

vulture1 said:

Adam. said:

ferrisbueller said:

Watching ZIM with interest to see what the price does around Div time and how the shorts vary.

Me too, I think history says don’t jump straight back in ex div

I bought more ended up around $19. I think and do not quote me but I worked out for this year their div if 30% thr low end it will be $4 total for 2023 and high end 6ish based on expected profit divided by the number of shares. So currently a 20%-30% dividend rate is good enough for me to buy in.

Now fallen back to the logical ex div price.

Set a buy to $17

Edited by Adam. on Wednesday 5th April 23:54

[vulture1]

Legend83 said:

vulture1 said:

Kodal ticking up now anyone else still in?

Yep now 468% up and holding for the big money!

Jesus I'm only 50% up how much further to make a life change for you?

[dangerousB]

Phooey said:

breadvan said:

Any hot tips for new ISA money tomorrow?

Yeah, stay away from this thread and the AIM markets

In principle I'd agree with this sentiment, but just go with your gut feeling and take a risk. If you can afford to lose your stake and it looks good, pile in.

Worst case, you lose what you can afford to lose. Best case, it pays you back big time.

[SimonTheSailor]

vulture1 said:

Kodal ticking up now anyone else still in?

Thought it rang a bell - my only shares that are in profit !
Book price 32.80
Current price 131.20

In the money !!

[egomeister]

Just saw that previous thread favourite Nanosynth (formerly RMS) is down 90% today after announcing they are out of cash by summer. Ouch.

[Legend83]

vulture1 said:

Legend83 said:

vulture1 said:

Kodal ticking up now anyone else still in?

Yep now 468% up and holding for the big money!

Jesus I'm only 50% up how much further to make a life change for you?

Quite a way as only have 1m shares. If it gets towards 5p one day (which given the asset it's sitting on is not unreasonable) then that pays a fair chunk of the mortgage off...

[Adam.]

Adam. said:

ZIM now fallen back to the logical ex div price.

Set a buy to $17

And back in, hopefully a decent price

Even if shipping rates and profits halve, div yield should be 25%

[vulture1]

Adam. said:

Adam. said:

ZIM now fallen back to the logical ex div price.

Set a buy to $17

And back in, hopefully a decent price

Even if shipping rates and profits halve, div yield should be 25%

Zim Dividend is a % of profits not a set ammount converting to a % of the stock price.

They have set it between 30 and 50% of net profits
I too bought more again today making it my biggest holding.
Shipping rates at all time low or thereabouts all it could take is a problem somewhere in the world for them to rise.

[Adam.]

vulture1 said:

Zim Dividend is a % of profits not a set ammount converting to a % of the stock price.

They have set it between 30 and 50% of net profits
I too bought more again today making it my biggest holding.
Shipping rates at all time low or thereabouts all it could take is a problem somewhere in the world for them to rise.

Yes I know, last year IIRC the div yield was 44% so if profits half so will the dividend, assuming SP stays roughly equal

But like you I think it may climb especially if China opens up and grows as expected.

My biggest holding too

[egomeister]

Adam. said:

Yes I know, last year IIRC the div yield was 44% so if profits half so will the dividend, assuming SP stays roughly equal

But like you I think it may climb especially if China opens up and grows as expected.

My biggest holding too

If the dividend policy is based on a percentage of profit, surely the SP will be hammered in your profit halved scenario? Not only is the business one of high operational gearing, but it sounds like the share price will be too. Aren't you at risk of massive capital destruction if you hold on to the shares a moment too long?