When/Will house prices cool down?
Discussion
Theres probably a thread running regarding this topic
I am very actively house hunting and houses are astonishingly overpriced compared to say a year ago.....Im talking 20% over what they were sensibly being marketed for
Now I am loathe to pay over the odds BUT am resigning myself to the fact that this is what people are willing to pay and therefore I must follow suit
Does anyone have any insight /analysis on whether/when this housing boom will stop well...booming !!
I am very actively house hunting and houses are astonishingly overpriced compared to say a year ago.....Im talking 20% over what they were sensibly being marketed for
Now I am loathe to pay over the odds BUT am resigning myself to the fact that this is what people are willing to pay and therefore I must follow suit
Does anyone have any insight /analysis on whether/when this housing boom will stop well...booming !!
turboman786 said:
Theres probably a thread running regarding this topic
I am very actively house hunting and houses are astonishingly overpriced compared to say a year ago.....Im talking 20% over what they were sensibly being marketed for
Now I am loathe to pay over the odds BUT am resigning myself to the fact that this is what people are willing to pay and therefore I must follow suit
Does anyone have any insight /analysis on whether/when this housing boom will stop well...booming !!
I’ll do you one better than a thread, here’s and entire forum:I am very actively house hunting and houses are astonishingly overpriced compared to say a year ago.....Im talking 20% over what they were sensibly being marketed for
Now I am loathe to pay over the odds BUT am resigning myself to the fact that this is what people are willing to pay and therefore I must follow suit
Does anyone have any insight /analysis on whether/when this housing boom will stop well...booming !!
https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php
Believe their answer is the market is going to crash imminently…
…and has been for the last decade
emicen said:
I’ll do you one better than a thread, here’s and entire forum:
https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php
Believe their answer is the market is going to crash imminently…
…and has been for the last decade
That's right, a prolific poster on that site, TheCountOfNowhere posted last week "My conclusion is, there's has never been a worse time to buy a house."https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php
Believe their answer is the market is going to crash imminently…
…and has been for the last decade
https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?...
Unfortunately as another member pointed out
"2009:
On 9/9/2009 at 12:53 PM, TheCountOfNowhere said:
There has never been a worse time to buy !!!!
2011:
On 4/15/2011 at 11:48 AM, TheCountOfNowhere said:
it's the worst time to buy one as you're more likely to be payinng over the odds.
2013:
On 12/11/2013 at 11:27 AM, TheCountOfNowhere said:
There's never been a worse time to buy a house.
2014:
On 5/7/2014 at 1:58 PM, TheCountOfNowhere said:
I am certain of one thing...there has never been a worse time to buy a house.
2016:
On 8/17/2016 at 3:44 PM, TheCountOfNowhere said:
there's never been a worse time to buy !!!"
I suspect all the people that ignored him over the last twelve years and bought a house anyway are regretting that decision........
I think the problem is house prices and their recent rises have caught us off guard and took most of us by surprise hence we are sat here thinking they are unsustainable. The reality is with interest rates so low the sums stack up. The rate at what they increase has to slow down, obviously, but after being in denial for so long I’ve just come to the conclusion that if the mortgage figures stack up the prices will follow.
emicen said:
I’ll do you one better than a thread, here’s and entire forum:
https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php
Believe their answer is the market is going to crash imminently…
…and has been for the last decade
That reminds me of that nutty religious website which was just a countdown to the end of the world. https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php
Believe their answer is the market is going to crash imminently…
…and has been for the last decade
http://www.the-end.com/
Sadly the clock reached zero 13 years ago.
Given we've seen the lengths this government is prepared to go to to prop up house prices, and they're potentially in power until at least 2024, it's hard to imagine a sudden, massive drop in prices of the kind that's worth putting your life on hold to wait for happening in the next couple of years.
Things may calm down slightly assuming interest rates drift up, but if you find somewhere you like and can afford it, even if rates head back up...
Things may calm down slightly assuming interest rates drift up, but if you find somewhere you like and can afford it, even if rates head back up...
I have predicted 9 of the last 3 downturns
My thoughts
Interest rates are very, very low and the decision of the MPC voting 7-2 to keep them low in the light of current inflation implies that there is little appetite for them to raise them in the short term
Inflation, if earnings rise (which they are), erodes the real value of your debt which will support the housing market
Earning are rising and there is a shortage of labour at present
Therefore, I would think it surprising if there was a fall in house prices in the next 12 - 18 months
A house should be viewed as a home, a place to live in and feel settled, it should not be approached as a form of investment
My thoughts
Interest rates are very, very low and the decision of the MPC voting 7-2 to keep them low in the light of current inflation implies that there is little appetite for them to raise them in the short term
Inflation, if earnings rise (which they are), erodes the real value of your debt which will support the housing market
Earning are rising and there is a shortage of labour at present
Therefore, I would think it surprising if there was a fall in house prices in the next 12 - 18 months
A house should be viewed as a home, a place to live in and feel settled, it should not be approached as a form of investment
Numpty with honours said:
Interest rates are very, very low and the decision of the MPC voting 7-2 to keep them low in the light of current inflation implies that there is little appetite for them to raise them in the short term
Inflation, if earnings rise (which they are), erodes the real value of your debt which will support the housing market
Earning are rising and there is a shortage of labour at present
Therefore, I would think it surprising if there was a fall in house prices in the next 12 - 18 months
That’s pretty much my view too. I know the markets disagree, but I don’t think we’ll see BoE get to 1% in 2022. Inflation, if earnings rise (which they are), erodes the real value of your debt which will support the housing market
Earning are rising and there is a shortage of labour at present
Therefore, I would think it surprising if there was a fall in house prices in the next 12 - 18 months
bogie said:
When house prices are adjusted for inflation (blue line in chart) then prices have not even recovered from the last 2008 market peak.
Below is avg house price sold data from Nationwide. You you can see the boom and bust cycle we have been since the 80s.
As per the graph above, even taking in the dips into account, the trend is still upwards and pretty much always will be in general terms. Covid ground the world to a halt, houses prices have continued to rise.Below is avg house price sold data from Nationwide. You you can see the boom and bust cycle we have been since the 80s.
Life is too short, if your dream house comes up, buy it............
Sarnie said:
As per the graph above, even taking in the dips into account, the trend is still upwards and pretty much always will be in general terms. Covid ground the world to a halt, houses prices have continued to rise.
Life is too short, if your dream house comes up, buy it............
Exactly and we need to stop seeing houses as assets and more as places to live and love to live, too much of this constantly on the move upwards cause my places has gone up 50k and now I can use all this equity for something bigger that I only need to impress people Life is too short, if your dream house comes up, buy it............
I'd argue that in some cases, the amounts of money are so potentially large, that NOT looking at a house as an investment would be pretty stupid. My house was bought mostly as an investment that I can live in, I've bet big on future/further gentrification of an area, and I've also spent more money that perhaps many would have on said bet.
That all said, I'd find it hard to justify spending on something in some average seaside bolthole for london types that has gone up 40% in value YOY, that feels unsustainable and needless.
That all said, I'd find it hard to justify spending on something in some average seaside bolthole for london types that has gone up 40% in value YOY, that feels unsustainable and needless.
Johnnytheboy said:
That reminds me of that nutty religious website which was just a countdown to the end of the world.
http://www.the-end.com/
Sadly the clock reached zero 13 years ago.
In terms of a functioning capitalist economic system then the world did effectively end in 2008, all we've had since is an animated zombie economy thanks to "emergency" interest rates and endless money printing.http://www.the-end.com/
Sadly the clock reached zero 13 years ago.
Whilst i dont think there will be a crash, there should be a slight dip or stagnation* based on the following imo (which will impact affordability)
Tax rate threshold to remain for 5 years, so any wage increases may mean you pay more tax on your money as the threshold dont increase in line with inflation.
Additional NI costs being introduced in 2022
Utilities costs are soaring
Fuel costs are increasing
Inflation is on the up meaning your money doesnt go as far
With record vacancies, any jobs that are paying over the odds for employees i.e. tanker drivers etc will be passed onto the consumer, so other rising costs also.
An increase in mortgage rates should decrease affordability.
Tax rate threshold to remain for 5 years, so any wage increases may mean you pay more tax on your money as the threshold dont increase in line with inflation.
Additional NI costs being introduced in 2022
Utilities costs are soaring
Fuel costs are increasing
Inflation is on the up meaning your money doesnt go as far
With record vacancies, any jobs that are paying over the odds for employees i.e. tanker drivers etc will be passed onto the consumer, so other rising costs also.
An increase in mortgage rates should decrease affordability.
- That being said, i dont think many people will put their homes up for sale due to the above so there will be limited supply which may in fact push prices up.
Joey Deacon said:
That's right, a prolific poster on that site, TheCountOfNowhere posted last week "My conclusion is, there's has never been a worse time to buy a house."
https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?...
Unfortunately as another member pointed out
"2009:
On 9/9/2009 at 12:53 PM, TheCountOfNowhere said:
There has never been a worse time to buy !!!!
2011:
On 4/15/2011 at 11:48 AM, TheCountOfNowhere said:
it's the worst time to buy one as you're more likely to be payinng over the odds.
2013:
On 12/11/2013 at 11:27 AM, TheCountOfNowhere said:
There's never been a worse time to buy a house.
2014:
On 5/7/2014 at 1:58 PM, TheCountOfNowhere said:
I am certain of one thing...there has never been a worse time to buy a house.
2016:
On 8/17/2016 at 3:44 PM, TheCountOfNowhere said:
there's never been a worse time to buy !!!"
I suspect all the people that ignored him over the last twelve years and bought a house anyway are regretting that decision........
I'm not sure he even believes it himself, it is more promoting their agenda. One of them (Crashy_time) posts on MSE, every house value/sale thread that it is the worse time, it is just to try and affect the market. I was forever calling him out, the best was he predicted 30% fall due to covid, I countered they would rise - we may see stamp duty holiday, people would be sick of being in same house and want to move - realise value of garden space etc, interests rates too low for savings/stock market volatile meaning people would look at property. And I was right, but he still says don't buy property.https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?...
Unfortunately as another member pointed out
"2009:
On 9/9/2009 at 12:53 PM, TheCountOfNowhere said:
There has never been a worse time to buy !!!!
2011:
On 4/15/2011 at 11:48 AM, TheCountOfNowhere said:
it's the worst time to buy one as you're more likely to be payinng over the odds.
2013:
On 12/11/2013 at 11:27 AM, TheCountOfNowhere said:
There's never been a worse time to buy a house.
2014:
On 5/7/2014 at 1:58 PM, TheCountOfNowhere said:
I am certain of one thing...there has never been a worse time to buy a house.
2016:
On 8/17/2016 at 3:44 PM, TheCountOfNowhere said:
there's never been a worse time to buy !!!"
I suspect all the people that ignored him over the last twelve years and bought a house anyway are regretting that decision........
Hussein-z3ksd said:
Inflation is on the up meaning your money doesnt go as far
With record vacancies, any jobs that are paying over the odds for employees i.e. tanker drivers etc will be passed onto the consumer, so other rising costs also.
The link between wage inflation and cost of goods inflation is important. The former won’t be/isn’t just limited to tanker drivers, but is impacting across a broad range of sectors. With record vacancies, any jobs that are paying over the odds for employees i.e. tanker drivers etc will be passed onto the consumer, so other rising costs also.
In times of currency devaluation, hard assets can look increasingly attractive.
E63eeeeee... said:
Given we've seen the lengths this government is prepared to go to to prop up house prices, and they're potentially in power until at least 2024, it's hard to imagine a sudden, massive drop in prices of the kind that's worth putting your life on hold to wait for happening in the next couple of years.
Broadly speaking, this has been the policy of successive governments for decades. Gassing Station | Finance | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff