When/Will house prices cool down?

[G-wiz]

supersport said:

Personally I don't understand the desire to work in That London. I used to commute in some 30 years ago, it was st.

5 or 6 years ago, a client needed us to be in their offices for a face to face at 9am, somewhere in central London.

Took the train into Paddington, then some underground, starting journey at 07:30 ish.

Once, and never again.

And some people do that several times a week!

Nice to have the experience, though, the suffering that these people face. To empathize.

[LastPoster]

G-wiz said:

supersport said:

Personally I don't understand the desire to work in That London. I used to commute in some 30 years ago, it was st.

5 or 6 years ago, a client needed us to be in their offices for a face to face at 9am, somewhere in central London.

Took the train into Paddington, then some underground, starting journey at 07:30 ish.

Once, and never again.

And some people do that several times a week!

Nice to have the experience, though, the suffering that these people face. To empathize.

Got on the train in Bath at 7.13 earlier this week into Paddington. In the clients office at 9.00 by Liverpool St

Sat and did some work on a nearly new train then a nearly new line across London. Not really a hardship

[pb8g09]

LastPoster said:

Got on the train in Bath at 7.13 earlier this week into Paddington. In the clients office at 9.00 by Liverpool St

Sat and did some work on a nearly new train then a nearly new line across London. Not really a hardship

Hope you're paid by the hour and not doing work outside of your working hours...

[LastPoster]

pb8g09 said:

LastPoster said:

Got on the train in Bath at 7.13 earlier this week into Paddington. In the clients office at 9.00 by Liverpool St

Sat and did some work on a nearly new train then a nearly new line across London. Not really a hardship

Hope you're paid by the hour and not doing work outside of your working hours...

The post was about the terrible hardship of a single train journey made years ago. It seems somewhat hyperbolic to me

I'm comfortable with my working arrangements thanks (note that I'm posting on PH on what are working hours for some, as are you)

[ooid]

If London can finally solve it's disastrously expensive and slow public transportation, people would even come to work during weekends.

[Man of gas]

G-wiz said:

supersport said:

Personally I don't understand the desire to work in That London. I used to commute in some 30 years ago, it was st.

5 or 6 years ago, a client needed us to be in their offices for a face to face at 9am, somewhere in central London.

Took the train into Paddington, then some underground, starting journey at 07:30 ish.

Once, and never again.

And some people do that several times a week!

Nice to have the experience, though, the suffering that these people face. To empathize.

I live in south london and work in Belgravia just next to Buckingham Palace. I commute by Bike, it takes bang on 20mins and I get to ride over the Thames and take in some iconic landmarks

[havoc]

DonkeyApple said:

It's levelling up though. The migrating of people out of the SE, back to the regions but taking higher paid jobs with them.

People seem to be very keen to be levelled up and have house prices akin to London and plumbers and electricians that charge £500 a day. Personally, I don't see the huge benefit in paying even more for stuff but each to their own.

No, it's nothing of the sort.

Levelling up is where those LOCAL to the regions get the same opportunities as those in the City(ies).

it's not when the London set up sticks and decide to take over other nice areas the same way they have with Dorset, simply because they've more asset value and more purchasing power.

[okgo]

havoc said:

No, it's nothing of the sort.

Levelling up is where those LOCAL to the regions get the same opportunities as those in the City(ies).

it's not when the London set up sticks and decide to take over other nice areas the same way they have with Dorset, simply because they've more asset value and more purchasing power.

Obviously that will never happen. And those Dorset locals didn’t have to flog their homes when the money came knocking.

[supersport]

LastPoster said:

G-wiz said:

supersport said:

Personally I don't understand the desire to work in That London. I used to commute in some 30 years ago, it was st.

5 or 6 years ago, a client needed us to be in their offices for a face to face at 9am, somewhere in central London.

Took the train into Paddington, then some underground, starting journey at 07:30 ish.

Once, and never again.

And some people do that several times a week!

Nice to have the experience, though, the suffering that these people face. To empathize.

Got on the train in Bath at 7.13 earlier this week into Paddington. In the clients office at 9.00 by Liverpool St

Sat and did some work on a nearly new train then a nearly new line across London. Not really a hardship

I either work in a home office, which. Is seconds away, or I cycle the ten minutes to the office and if it’s nice I walk for 30 minutes instead. Very pleasant, quick and free transport

Every time I’ve changed jobs I’ve cut my time to work considerably. I like that I can walk to work and my son could walk / cycle to school.

But that has absolutely itching to do with house prices dropping. I would pay a premium for that though, especially with easy access to the countryside for driving purposes and town for fun purposes.

[havoc]

okgo said:

havoc said:

No, it's nothing of the sort.

Levelling up is where those LOCAL to the regions get the same opportunities as those in the City(ies).

it's not when the London set up sticks and decide to take over other nice areas the same way they have with Dorset, simply because they've more asset value and more purchasing power.

Obviously that will never happen. And those Dorset locals didn’t have to flog their homes when the money came knocking.

I don't mean the same money. That would be undesirable and unrealistic.

I mean the same (breadth of) career opportunities as for those who live/work in the SE, and to an extent (not ever going to be equal) the same leisure opportunities / travel network. We're in danger of becoming like France where Paris is a completely different place to the rest of the country, and it's almost "Paris vs the Departments".

[Harry Flashman]

havoc said:

I don't mean the same money. That would be undesirable and unrealistic.

I mean the same (breadth of) career opportunities as for those who live/work in the SE, and to an extent (not ever going to be equal) the same leisure opportunities / travel network. We're in danger of becoming like France where Paris is a completely different place to the rest of the country, and it's almost "Paris vs the Departments".

I think we're already there, frankly. And it's not a good thing.

[okgo]

Harry Flashman said:

I think we're already there, frankly. And it's not a good thing.

It’s been like this for years and years really.

[nickfrog]

havoc said:

I don't mean the same money. That would be undesirable and unrealistic.

I mean the same (breadth of) career opportunities as for those who live/work in the SE, and to an extent (not ever going to be equal) the same leisure opportunities / travel network. We're in danger of becoming like France where Paris is a completely different place to the rest of the country, and it's almost "Paris vs the Departments".

Not sure France is that contrasted economically. The "decentralisation" efforts did yield some good results.

In fact some serious job creations in provincial towns like Nantes, Rennes, Strasbourg, Toulouse, Montpellier etc... where you get excellent quality of life too, affordable property (and food prices) and a proper transport system.

[DonkeyApple]

soupdragon1 said:

DonkeyApple said:

But there is almost no logic to wanting values to increase and plenty of logic in wanting values to stagnate and generally fall in real terms over a suitable period of time.

Stagnation keeps out the speculators while allowing non speculators to plan how, when and where they buy in. It allows the market to return to being about people having a home not a leveraged punt on a market.

I feel like this should be a strategic Govt target. Somehow. Govt only have blunt tools of course but if we can just let wages catch up for a minute, like you say, then it becomes a normal market again.

On the other discussion point around WFH and where you live. Here in NI, prices are increasing a bit too fast for my liking and I've an 18 and 13 year old at home who will be wanting their own house in the future. Dublin house prices have got out of hand and plenty of global tech in Dublin which is only a 1 hr drive from the NI border so that 1 or 2 trips to the office is no big deal now. London is obviously crazy prices and where I live (2 miles from the airport) there are plenty of Londoners buying houses and commuting to the office. So we're getting hit from GB and ROI in terms of people wanting to come and buy our houses.

The estate agents are highlighting proximity to the airport as key features in property listings now, clearly targetting aeroplane commutes. The flights are really cheap if you have to pay yourself, but even better if its on company expenses. I commute too, although only a couple of times a quarter. If I've a 7am flight, I leave the house at 6.15am and I'm at the departure gate at 6.30am. If the flight leaves on schedule, I'm in London City for just after 8am. Still a long old day, but if its only sporadic travelling, you can put up with it.

In many ways the Govt has precision tools to try and stage manage a value stagnation. We saw this in 2011 when some simple changes pushed away some overseas and corporate investment capital by increasing their tax burden and likewise the specific targeting of BTL speculative gamblers by taxing them out. Simultaneously, regulation that had restricted lending multiples to prevent runaway asset inflation and default risk was put back into place.

The Govt could easily deleverage the resi property market via a top down approach to further dial out inflationary pressures driven by non essential borrowing. It could be as simple as lowering the lending multiple as the loan amount increases etc.

Whereas interest rates are a really clumsy tool for trying to curb lending, regulation is a scalpel that can perform some precision operations.

You'd just need to get some FCA employees back into the office and then find some that understood what their job was. After years of operating under Bailey, it's all a bit of a mess over there still.

[DonkeyApple]

G-wiz said:

5 or 6 years ago, a client needed us to be in their offices for a face to face at 9am, somewhere in central London.

Took the train into Paddington, then some underground, starting journey at 07:30 ish.

Once, and never again.

And some people do that several times a week!

Nice to have the experience, though, the suffering that these people face. To empathize.

I quite like my run in these days. Just as per using the Tube for decades, my key is to travel when the cleaners and sandwich makers are, never when big clerical migration is on.

Drive to my middle of nowhere train station around 5am. Park the car in an empty car park, walk onto an empty platform, get into an empty train and go back to sleep. Disembark at a still reasonably quiet Paddington and Tube round to the City. Circle Line still reasonably quiet. Then go for breakfast. A nice relaxing sit at a table, in a comfortable chair, with a view, a pot of coffee, read the papers, start responding to emails etc while all the carnage of people all trying to get to a desk by 9am is going on outside. Then, eventually, wander over to the first meeting of the day. Then if doing two days in then you pick a hotel where colleagues or clients will be out and about for the evening, knowing that when they have to bail to get back out of London, all you have to do is saunter back to the hotel for a nice supper and an early night, unless you're foolish enough to answer that call from a mate you know is a total liability and informs you of an out, out opportunity.

In short, moving around London when the masses are is generally grim but make the choice to be moving around when they aren't and to also take full advantage of just how piss easy everything is and people could get a window into why many people absolutely love London.

Meanwhile, I am taking my children out for dinner tonight to a chain restaurant in a regional town. And that fills me with utter dread. The lifeless, banality, uniformity and predictability of regional towns and cities is dismal beyond belief. All identikit crap holes of utter boredom where the inhabitants plan their nights out months in advance and just repeat the same conversations each time. It's my idea of abject hell. And yet, it is beloved by millions so it is very clearly a 'me' issue. It's just me who is filled with fear and loathing for chain store living.

[Forester1965]

Yeah but kids love branding. Think mine could recognise the golden arches at 600 yards from about 2yrs old.

[DonkeyApple]

havoc said:

No, it's nothing of the sort.

Levelling up is where those LOCAL to the regions get the same opportunities as those in the City(ies).

it's not when the London set up sticks and decide to take over other nice areas the same way they have with Dorset, simply because they've more asset value and more purchasing power.

If you think about it, that is what is going to happen. It won't be real Londoners deciding to emigrate to the North but fewer young and future successful Northerners emigrating to London for work and lifestyle superior to what they can find closer to home.

It's about 250k economic migrants a year coming in to London from the regions isn't it? The intention of levelling up is to create a better environment locally which will lead to fewer of the best and brightest from running away as fast as they can to somewhere they perceive to be superior/better. Levelling up is ultimately just code for trying to stem the brain drain that blights some regions. And if successful will massively increase house prices and the cost of services, along with rents too.

[Forester1965]

Just look at Dublin.

[BAMoFo]

NomduJour said:

Public sector, though - different planet. The people I know who are having to go back into the office hate it, because it’s a lot easier to do nothing sitting around in your pants at home, and without doing £40 a day on train fares.

Can’t see WfH having a huge effect on London prices, but more remote stuff has to be far more attractive nowadays with the likes of Starlink etc.

How much of the reluctance to go back into the office is down to being able to do very little and how much of it is down to the cost? My guess is that the majority of it should be due to the latter because the former is entirely within the gift of their line manager to monitor and resolve as necessary. If the manager isn't capable of that then it is a shortcoming on their part.

Back on topic; in my area house prices are still at the level they were in 2006.

Edited by BAMoFo on Saturday 9th March 11:27

[Portia5]

Our most recent renovation sale closed on Thursday after 3 weeks on the market. It's in a typical Glasgow satellite town:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/144785195#/...

Accepted 410. We reckon last November it would have fetched 425+

So, bit of a cool down (3%?) but mustn't grumble.