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WindyCommon said:
Of course you are right, but remember that there are ALWAYS good reasons not invest!
This version of an old theme is a couple of years out of date, and a somewhat US-centric, but the point is clear...
I'm not saying one shouldn't invest.This version of an old theme is a couple of years out of date, and a somewhat US-centric, but the point is clear...
I was just stating the bleedin obvious,in the hope that others would post and agree.
Had a lot of stick on here,rightly so,and was looking for a bit of kudos.
Dave350 said:
Dave350 said:
Now at 84p.
Boohoo have a £5m option to buy 'Pretty Little Thing' which is currently run by the family of one of Boohoo's founders which expires in March 2017. PLT is currently trading at over £30m Revenue and is doing well in America as well as benefitting from exports with the current £ in USA.
I'm backing this to tip over £1 now. I will sell up most likely in March when they have hopefully used their option to buy PLT.
Now at 92p. Boohoo have a £5m option to buy 'Pretty Little Thing' which is currently run by the family of one of Boohoo's founders which expires in March 2017. PLT is currently trading at over £30m Revenue and is doing well in America as well as benefitting from exports with the current £ in USA.
I'm backing this to tip over £1 now. I will sell up most likely in March when they have hopefully used their option to buy PLT.
Option still not activated for PLT so plenty of room to go in it. £1 is inevitable.
This is cruising as a share. 93% growth in America year on year, hasn't yet benefitted from the weaker £ due to hedging in advance, further benefits to be had here from this.
I can see this hitting £1.30-£1.40 by March when the PLT option is activated.
twinturboz said:
If your invested in commodities for the short term I'd be keeping a very close eye on the dollar index. We are at a likely major inflection point that will resolve with quite a large move depending on which way the $ goes and that's going to drive the near term moves in Gold and Oil.
As for the market (US) now the Fed sugar pill is over we can get back to the reasons why we were going down in the first place, way I see it is if we don't hold major trend lines were going to have a deeper correction, if we do hold then expect a bounce and new highs before the deeper correction, either way a deeper correction is coming just a question of is it now or next year.
Oil will be fun this week, Opec shenanigans, a deal is still unlikely although Opec have been up to some tricks. They've ramped up loading by a significant amount these last 2 weeks not sure if that is indicative of some sort of deal or not, but shorts have ramped up in oil last week so expecting a squeeze at some point this week, inventory numbers should be bullish this week too.
Looks like it will be the deeper correction after the new highs, with this bounce from 6770 seemingly never ending!As for the market (US) now the Fed sugar pill is over we can get back to the reasons why we were going down in the first place, way I see it is if we don't hold major trend lines were going to have a deeper correction, if we do hold then expect a bounce and new highs before the deeper correction, either way a deeper correction is coming just a question of is it now or next year.
Oil will be fun this week, Opec shenanigans, a deal is still unlikely although Opec have been up to some tricks. They've ramped up loading by a significant amount these last 2 weeks not sure if that is indicative of some sort of deal or not, but shorts have ramped up in oil last week so expecting a squeeze at some point this week, inventory numbers should be bullish this week too.
GBP down to $1.275 today, FTSE up...
Where is the GBP heading? Down to $1.20 or lower?
Hard Brexit could push GBP even lower, potentially? A Clinton election win push the dollar higher?
I'm looking at getting out of my equity funds (held in USD) and convert to GBP to hold cash.
'Timing the market' is starting to make me nervous.
Bearing in mind I've averaged $1.5+ to the pound while investing, I am well 'up' on the FX already.
I could then leave the 'profit' behind in something I'd expect to appreciate in a correction e.g. gold.
TT or others - any thoughts? Could take 'some' now of course but I see no reason the GBP will spring back up to say $1.5 again, any time soon.
Where is the GBP heading? Down to $1.20 or lower?
Hard Brexit could push GBP even lower, potentially? A Clinton election win push the dollar higher?
I'm looking at getting out of my equity funds (held in USD) and convert to GBP to hold cash.
'Timing the market' is starting to make me nervous.
Bearing in mind I've averaged $1.5+ to the pound while investing, I am well 'up' on the FX already.
I could then leave the 'profit' behind in something I'd expect to appreciate in a correction e.g. gold.
TT or others - any thoughts? Could take 'some' now of course but I see no reason the GBP will spring back up to say $1.5 again, any time soon.
Gbp is a tough one, I don't really trade it a lot but did try and buy it against the brexit lows which didn't work. There really isn't much that looks bullish at these levels.
The dollar index is also on the verge of breaking out if that was to happen then your going to get further weakness in the Gbp, add to the mix talk of further easing from the BOE like you said no real reason to get to $1.50. It is however a massively crowded short.
Gold been waiting months for the sub $1300 and were finally getting it. IMO the consensus is too bullish on Gold so I think it needs a proper flush down to take out the weak longs then it will set up a great buy into mid next year for the $1500. Personally I've been waiting for around $1284ish to start scaling in but this potentially could go as far as $1250.
The dollar index is also on the verge of breaking out if that was to happen then your going to get further weakness in the Gbp, add to the mix talk of further easing from the BOE like you said no real reason to get to $1.50. It is however a massively crowded short.
Gold been waiting months for the sub $1300 and were finally getting it. IMO the consensus is too bullish on Gold so I think it needs a proper flush down to take out the weak longs then it will set up a great buy into mid next year for the $1500. Personally I've been waiting for around $1284ish to start scaling in but this potentially could go as far as $1250.
twinturboz said:
Gbp is a tough one, I don't really trade it a lot but did try and buy it against the brexit lows which didn't work. There really isn't much that looks bullish at these levels.
The dollar index is also on the verge of breaking out if that was to happen then your going to get further weakness in the Gbp, add to the mix talk of further easing from the BOE like you said no real reason to get to $1.50. It is however a massively crowded short.
Gold been waiting months for the sub $1300 and were finally getting it. IMO the consensus is too bullish on Gold so I think it needs a proper flush down to take out the weak longs then it will set up a great buy into mid next year for the $1500. Personally I've been waiting for around $1284ish to start scaling in but this potentially could go as far as $1250.
Good stuff! Thanks TT... Will have a think over the next few days!The dollar index is also on the verge of breaking out if that was to happen then your going to get further weakness in the Gbp, add to the mix talk of further easing from the BOE like you said no real reason to get to $1.50. It is however a massively crowded short.
Gold been waiting months for the sub $1300 and were finally getting it. IMO the consensus is too bullish on Gold so I think it needs a proper flush down to take out the weak longs then it will set up a great buy into mid next year for the $1500. Personally I've been waiting for around $1284ish to start scaling in but this potentially could go as far as $1250.
twinturboz said:
walm said:
BOOM!
RISK ON!!
Took some Gdx too. Be surprised if 1283 ends up being the day's low. RISK ON!!
NRS said:
Judging by general comments here it's more likely there is a market correction coming soon, with quite a few of the people who know what they are talking about mentioning buying gold since it does well when other things go down. However part of the risk seems to be a downturn in the US (perhaps started by the election). How do you cover the risk of the drop in dollar price for buying gold? Or is it that the change in gold will be enough to offset any change in the dollar? Or that the £ is also likely to have issues, so the relative value might not be affected too much? I'm in Norway, so would have a different currency outlook. Looking at currency charts the dollar is very strong against the kroner and so gains made in gold could be wiped out/ reduced by the currency conversion side of things (the dollar is around 35% higher for the last 2 years compared to the 7 before that).
These are great questions.I look at it as TWO trades.
One - long gold.
Two - long USD (versus in my case the GBP).
I am happy to be effectively short the GBP and long the USD since obviously Brexit has made that pay off like a bandit and continues to do so.
If I DID NOT want to make that trade I would take a contrary USD position to hedge out the FX risk such that effectively I was just long gold but in my home currency.
That would mean for every 1% the gold price goes up in USD I would still make 1% in GBP or NOK (in your case) no matter what the underlying FX gets up to.
walm said:
These are great questions.
I look at it as TWO trades.
One - long gold.
Two - long USD (versus in my case the GBP).
I am happy to be effectively short the GBP and long the USD since obviously Brexit has made that pay off like a bandit and continues to do so.
If I DID NOT want to make that trade I would take a contrary USD position to hedge out the FX risk such that effectively I was just long gold but in my home currency.
That would mean for every 1% the gold price goes up in USD I would still make 1% in GBP or NOK (in your case) no matter what the underlying FX gets up to.
Thanks for a very useful reply. What would be the best options for having a contrary USD position? Just purchasing USD? I want to avoid any multiplier effects as I don't know enough about them to avoid potentially getting myself in trouble. Obviously I can read up on them, but I have only been trading for 2 years or so, so am still learning a lot. I want to spend a bit more time playing with money I can lose learning the more macro-scale cycles before getting into too much risk.I look at it as TWO trades.
One - long gold.
Two - long USD (versus in my case the GBP).
I am happy to be effectively short the GBP and long the USD since obviously Brexit has made that pay off like a bandit and continues to do so.
If I DID NOT want to make that trade I would take a contrary USD position to hedge out the FX risk such that effectively I was just long gold but in my home currency.
That would mean for every 1% the gold price goes up in USD I would still make 1% in GBP or NOK (in your case) no matter what the underlying FX gets up to.
Case in point was the one that made me think of this now - took a gamble on Faroe Petroleum making some discoveries in a drilling campaign after a private company bought out the only Norwegian Stock Exchange company ivolved in the campaign. I had made a decent return on that company and wanted to "stay in". I figured I could just wait out the longer term downturn if it didn't work out since Faroe was unlikely to go down compared to a lot of competitors. However I forgot to re-evaluate my situation with Brexit, and so am likely to be down around 20% when it is back to my purchase price. I can wait it out since I don't need the money, but may well take it out soon given the continuing impact of Brexit on currency rates.
Risk in itself is not a big issue (I am "fine" losing the money I am trading myself, since I have already bought a house, have mutual funds seperately and have enough savings to cover a shock such as job loss etc.). It's just I don't want to end up having to use money not set aside for playing with. So the money I am trading with now is both about learning lessons, making money and also just for the fun of it. I've seen over the year or two I have been learning lessons and changing the way I trade. At the start it was the stupid "buy a company that has fallen lots as it's cheap". For some reason that wasn't ideal... quite surprising for everyone here I imagine! I then did an ok-ish job playing with small amounts to make money off short term up and downs in small companies. I had the advantage of the small volumes compared to big investors, and also that I didn't need to make a living off it so could wait it out if I bought too high, but it basically was gambling. It then became doing the same on small companies that were rising. In practice I was overtrading to try and take advantage of every rise and fall. Now I'm being more patient and just keeping them since it uses a lot of time and you risk getting stranded when the shares jump rapidly. Overall I'm up around 14% for the year at the moment, if you remove Faroe which is currently around the same amount of the unrealised gain I have in another company. It also includes getting a huge kicking on one small company earlier in the year! It's been fun though, and I've learned a lot from stuff posted here and then being able to follow up some of it in further reading. So thanks to you all.
Imagine you bought $1,000 worth of GLD at the beginning of this year.
The USDNOK was around 9 at that point so it would have cost you NOK9,000.
If GLD hadn't moved (in USD terms) and you exited the position today then you would get back just NOK8,000 because the dollar has weakened against the NOK over the year-to-date; going from NOK9 to NOK8.
Now if you BOUGHT a further $1,000 worth of plain old greenbacks you would have COMPOUNDED the losses!
Your NOK18,000 would be down to NOK16,000.
So you need to SHORT the dollar.
You may be able to do that through the ETC: LNOK or just through a spread bet on that currency.
The only slight nuance is that you will be over/under-hedged depending on the movement of GLD.
If GLD doubled over the year then suddenly your original NOK9,000 exposure to USD is actually worth NOK18,000 so you need to short MORE USD vs. NOK.
This is called rebalancing and it's a ball ache.
The USDNOK was around 9 at that point so it would have cost you NOK9,000.
If GLD hadn't moved (in USD terms) and you exited the position today then you would get back just NOK8,000 because the dollar has weakened against the NOK over the year-to-date; going from NOK9 to NOK8.
Now if you BOUGHT a further $1,000 worth of plain old greenbacks you would have COMPOUNDED the losses!
Your NOK18,000 would be down to NOK16,000.
So you need to SHORT the dollar.
You may be able to do that through the ETC: LNOK or just through a spread bet on that currency.
The only slight nuance is that you will be over/under-hedged depending on the movement of GLD.
If GLD doubled over the year then suddenly your original NOK9,000 exposure to USD is actually worth NOK18,000 so you need to short MORE USD vs. NOK.
This is called rebalancing and it's a ball ache.
walm said:
Imagine you bought $1,000 worth of GLD at the beginning of this year.
The USDNOK was around 9 at that point so it would have cost you NOK9,000.
If GLD hadn't moved (in USD terms) and you exited the position today then you would get back just NOK8,000 because the dollar has weakened against the NOK over the year-to-date; going from NOK9 to NOK8.
Now if you BOUGHT a further $1,000 worth of plain old greenbacks you would have COMPOUNDED the losses!
Your NOK18,000 would be down to NOK16,000.
So you need to SHORT the dollar.
You may be able to do that through the ETC: LNOK or just through a spread bet on that currency.
The only slight nuance is that you will be over/under-hedged depending on the movement of GLD.
If GLD doubled over the year then suddenly your original NOK9,000 exposure to USD is actually worth NOK18,000 so you need to short MORE USD vs. NOK.
This is called rebalancing and it's a ball ache.
Sorry, not sure why I said buy more dollars, as it's obviously the wrong thing to do when trying to reduce the risk to them! Moment of stupidity. From what I can see the ETC would probably be the better option for me to hedge with, at least at the start when I would have an idea of the initial investment. Spread betting in Norway also comes under the normal share trading tax rules.The USDNOK was around 9 at that point so it would have cost you NOK9,000.
If GLD hadn't moved (in USD terms) and you exited the position today then you would get back just NOK8,000 because the dollar has weakened against the NOK over the year-to-date; going from NOK9 to NOK8.
Now if you BOUGHT a further $1,000 worth of plain old greenbacks you would have COMPOUNDED the losses!
Your NOK18,000 would be down to NOK16,000.
So you need to SHORT the dollar.
You may be able to do that through the ETC: LNOK or just through a spread bet on that currency.
The only slight nuance is that you will be over/under-hedged depending on the movement of GLD.
If GLD doubled over the year then suddenly your original NOK9,000 exposure to USD is actually worth NOK18,000 so you need to short MORE USD vs. NOK.
This is called rebalancing and it's a ball ache.
Dave350 said:
Now at £1.05, PLT Option still not used.
This is cruising as a share. 93% growth in America year on year, hasn't yet benefitted from the weaker £ due to hedging in advance, further benefits to be had here from this.
I can see this hitting £1.30-£1.40 by March when the PLT option is activated.
Good call Dave! I owe you a beer or 6! This is cruising as a share. 93% growth in America year on year, hasn't yet benefitted from the weaker £ due to hedging in advance, further benefits to be had here from this.
I can see this hitting £1.30-£1.40 by March when the PLT option is activated.
twinturboz said:
walm said:
BOOM!
RISK ON!!
Took some Gdx too. Be surprised if 1283 ends up being the day's low. RISK ON!!
Up 18% in a small company called Axactor in the last 20 days. Going to wait until it's around 3kr before re-evaluating, unless there is news before then.
Edited by NRS on Wednesday 5th October 15:30
NRS said:
That's me in with some GDX at $23.74. It was too early as I got it when it started climbing before it dropped again, but I thought it's better to make sure of being in rather than trying to time it perfectly and potentially being left behind. I can wait it out if needs be.
Exactly that, trying to nail the bottom is a fool's game, scale in stages I've bought 1/2 of what I wanted to, 1/4 to add if it drops and then the last 1/4 only added on the way up when it gives a reversal signal. Back through 24 today would be great might even have have marked the bottom if it strongly comes back above it. Edited by NRS on Wednesday 5th October 15:30
My buy range is anywhere from 24-19 with an exit target of around 45-50.
Gold had large enough volume to be capitulation yesterday but not quite sure if a little more downside is needed to scare the last of the longs out. Plus you have a bit of short term weakness with all the rate talk and USDJPY.
Probably not what most people want to buy in an ISA but there is a LSE version of GDX which can be bought within the wrapper.
Edited by twinturboz on Wednesday 5th October 18:23
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