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g4ry13

17,050 posts

256 months

Monday 31st July 2017
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I added some more to my IG position this morning. So far so good....

bad company

18,682 posts

267 months

Monday 31st July 2017
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Anybody else holding 'oiley' shares? I have had Shell and BP for many years and held on for the yield. I'm getting a bit concerned about the lack of cover and how vulnerable those dividends are getting. scratchchin

Trouble is if I sell up where do I invest the £'s for a safer yield.

g4ry13

17,050 posts

256 months

Monday 31st July 2017
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I have some BP pre-brexit. Must admit I kicked myself for not offloading at £5. They do pay a nice dividend though. Results out tomorrow.

I also have some SOLO oil but no point talking about those.

You could always get into mining? RIO, BHP? Or maybe easyjet will drop back a bit and you can pick some of those up with a nice dividend,

Man Group are always good for a dividend and historically rather stable (boring) with share price. I do have IG which pays a dividend too but some would argue those are more risky.


Edited by g4ry13 on Monday 31st July 21:23

HarryW

15,156 posts

270 months

Monday 31st July 2017
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For those in on PREM what's your thoughts on the financing announced today, death knell or just what was needed?

NRS

22,219 posts

202 months

Monday 31st July 2017
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bad company said:
Anybody else holding 'oiley' shares? I have had Shell and BP for many years and held on for the yield. I'm getting a bit concerned about the lack of cover and how vulnerable those dividends are getting. scratchchin

Trouble is if I sell up where do I invest the £'s for a safer yield.
I have some oily shares, but through my work saving scheme (Statoil) so a bit of a different story to your situation. Not able to trade currently due to working with a high impact well we're about to start anyway. I have a feeling it will be a few years before any proper recovery in the oil industry due to the rapid response of shale oil to increases in oil price and then hedging when it is a bit higher. And I'm wondering if it will ever recover properly - there seems to be a shift starting in terms of the banning of petrol/ diesel cars in Europe, which will impact the demand for hydrocarbons as transport is such a big part of it. But that is more long term.

Rusty Gusset

131 posts

240 months

Monday 31st July 2017
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I am in a similar position as NRS with another Oil Major and agree completely. If I could offload some shares I would. The industry is getting much leaner but the Unconventional plays (shale) can react much faster compared to traditional assets. This will continue to dampen the market unless there's a huge increase in demand (e.g. China ramping up) or drastic cuts in conventional supply (e.g. War in Middle East). It will be interesting to see what OPEC do in the next year.

I'm not sure how much deeper the majors can keep going into the red by fueling dividends, whilst simultaneously asset stripping themselves, before the share price bubble bursts.


bad company

18,682 posts

267 months

Tuesday 1st August 2017
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As a precaution I've put a stop loss in place for BP. Will probably do the same for Shell.

Andrew-3ha0d

31 posts

84 months

Tuesday 1st August 2017
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UKOG has been a busy morning so far following the RNS

dom9

8,091 posts

210 months

Tuesday 1st August 2017
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UKOG is a rollercoaster.

Not sure I would have the stomach for it!

Rusty Gusset

131 posts

240 months

Tuesday 1st August 2017
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http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/159020/what-d...

Interesting article on OPEC but it doesn't note how much quicker the industry can now react to shortages and increased demand. The lag to regain equilibrium has shortened

NRS

22,219 posts

202 months

Tuesday 1st August 2017
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Rusty Gusset said:
http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/159020/what-d...

Interesting article on OPEC but it doesn't note how much quicker the industry can now react to shortages and increased demand. The lag to regain equilibrium has shortened
From what I have seen (not done any detailed analysis but the general picture) is that when the price went back up with the cuts a lot of shale oil companies locked that price in with hedges. They were able to continue increasing production even when it got pushed back down. That's why there wasn't a big jump up when OPEC continued the cuts. It seems like now they might be levelling out though, and might be dropping a bit again based on rig count/ some company reports. So it might be there is a bit of a recovery until the next round of hedging when companies feel it is high enough.

p1stonhead

25,587 posts

168 months

Wednesday 2nd August 2017
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Spotify IPO next year most likely?

One to watch and possibly get into IMO.

HarryW

15,156 posts

270 months

Wednesday 2nd August 2017
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I see the half yearly for BAE (BA.) are solid even more so when exchange rate corrected. Hopefully my new TVR pot will pick up again!

Jonboy_t

5,038 posts

184 months

Wednesday 2nd August 2017
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Yet to do any research into them, but one that may be worth watching is Primorus Investments (PRIM). They seem to hold an interest in various mining and exploratory companies, of which UKOG is one (10% stake in Horse Hill, I believe).

From a cursory glance, there is a pretty good history of them putting money into successful miners and a placing today to raise £1.6m alludes to there being another one on the cards, or the extension of an existing investment.

HarryW

15,156 posts

270 months

Wednesday 2nd August 2017
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NRS said:
Rusty Gusset said:
http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/159020/what-d...

Interesting article on OPEC but it doesn't note how much quicker the industry can now react to shortages and increased demand. The lag to regain equilibrium has shortened
From what I have seen (not done any detailed analysis but the general picture) is that when the price went back up with the cuts a lot of shale oil companies locked that price in with hedges. They were able to continue increasing production even when it got pushed back down. That's why there wasn't a big jump up when OPEC continued the cuts. It seems like now they might be levelling out though, and might be dropping a bit again based on rig count/ some company reports. So it might be there is a bit of a recovery until the next round of hedging when companies feel it is high enough.
Another take on this is DGOC have been buying up Shale wells as owners have struggled/needed the cash and then reduced production costs by around 30% per barrel. One to keep an eye on imho.

HarryW

15,156 posts

270 months

Wednesday 2nd August 2017
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Jonboy_t said:
Yet to do any research into them, but one that may be worth watching is Primorus Investments (PRIM). They seem to hold an interest in various mining and exploratory companies, of which UKOG is one (10% stake in Horse Hill, I believe).

From a cursory glance, there is a pretty good history of them putting money into successful miners and a placing today to raise £1.6m alludes to there being another one on the cards, or the extension of an existing investment.
Re PRIM; What I don't get is what value they are adding, at present they have a shares in a Welsh gold mine and the onshore oilfields UKOG hold, are they going to do something completely different or just increase their holding of the UKOG fields. In which case then I'd be tempted to stick with the parent rather than go via the middle man. Perhaps that's just me...

86DA

225 posts

128 months

Thursday 3rd August 2017
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From the London South East forum, regarding a thread favourite Motif Bio

aimchaos.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/mtfb-bought-03-08-2017.pdf

FredClogs

14,041 posts

162 months

Thursday 3rd August 2017
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86DA said:
From the London South East forum, regarding a thread favourite Motif Bio

aimchaos.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/mtfb-bought-03-08-2017.pdf
And yet is still meanders along. mostly down :/

I'm adding next week unless it pops soon, and I'm staying in, but it's starting to concern me, I didn't think it would stay under 30p for this length of time. Here's a more thorough article from last week with a full digest of the science and history if iclaprim.


https://seekingalpha.com/article/4093066-motif-bio...

HarryW

15,156 posts

270 months

Thursday 3rd August 2017
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HarryW said:
I see the half yearly for BAE (BA.) are solid even more so when exchange rate corrected. Hopefully my new TVR pot will pick up again!
I obvious know nothing about what a good blue chip business is, despite this good half yearly report everything up including the divi and a recent extensive positive piece by UBS the shares went down and has been for a little while.
Not sure what the city is looking for, outside of an easy fast buck, anyone like a stab at explaining it to me, I did get an O Level in economics at school in the 70's!

dom9

8,091 posts

210 months

Thursday 3rd August 2017
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FredClogs said:
And yet is still meanders along. mostly down :/

I'm adding next week unless it pops soon, and I'm staying in, but it's starting to concern me, I didn't think it would stay under 30p for this length of time. Here's a more thorough article from last week with a full digest of the science and history if iclaprim.


https://seekingalpha.com/article/4093066-motif-bio...
I've been tempted to add more while it has been down at 28p-ish but I have this nagging doubt that it seems so 'obviously undervalued' that I must be missing something negative as it has stayed in that 28-32p range for a long time and on low volume. I have read up on the competitor (discussed in that article) and the warrants etc. but it still seems like a good bet (gambling term not a coincidence).
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