Heating Oil Price Rocketing
Discussion
Some days I'm quite clever... other days not so much....
run with me here....
1. https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/CL*0/futur...
This page shows West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures, in live purchases.
People betting/guessing on future Crude oil prices. WTI is an international, bulk, gross indicator of oil supply/use.
Kerosene 28, heating oil to us follows world trends.
Today WTI is $109/barrel and contracts are selling for $110/barrel for July2022, with a volume of sales of 88,000 contracts for today.
2. The only other timeframes with decent contract volumes traded, or in other words contracts that people have enough confidence to do a deal on, are 6month at 14,000 contracts and 12 months at 5,000 contracts.
3. The 6 month price is traded at $98/barrel and the 12 month price $90/barrel
4. The Heating oil reflection of this is 90ppl today, 81ppl in 6 months and 74ppl in 12 months. (using a proportionate reduction and mirroring the WTI Oil Future market trades, which are bets in real terms obviously.....
Mr Spoon, how far off the mark do you think this little thought exercise is?
run with me here....
1. https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/CL*0/futur...
This page shows West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures, in live purchases.
People betting/guessing on future Crude oil prices. WTI is an international, bulk, gross indicator of oil supply/use.
Kerosene 28, heating oil to us follows world trends.
Today WTI is $109/barrel and contracts are selling for $110/barrel for July2022, with a volume of sales of 88,000 contracts for today.
2. The only other timeframes with decent contract volumes traded, or in other words contracts that people have enough confidence to do a deal on, are 6month at 14,000 contracts and 12 months at 5,000 contracts.
3. The 6 month price is traded at $98/barrel and the 12 month price $90/barrel
4. The Heating oil reflection of this is 90ppl today, 81ppl in 6 months and 74ppl in 12 months. (using a proportionate reduction and mirroring the WTI Oil Future market trades, which are bets in real terms obviously.....
Mr Spoon, how far off the mark do you think this little thought exercise is?
The_Doc said:
Some days I'm quite clever... other days not so much....
run with me here....
1. https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/CL*0/futur...
This page shows West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures, in live purchases.
People betting/guessing on future Crude oil prices. WTI is an international, bulk, gross indicator of oil supply/use.
Kerosene 28, heating oil to us follows world trends.
Today WTI is $109/barrel and contracts are selling for $110/barrel for July2022, with a volume of sales of 88,000 contracts for today.
2. The only other timeframes with decent contract volumes traded, or in other words contracts that people have enough confidence to do a deal on, are 6month at 14,000 contracts and 12 months at 5,000 contracts.
3. The 6 month price is traded at $98/barrel and the 12 month price $90/barrel
4. The Heating oil reflection of this is 90ppl today, 81ppl in 6 months and 74ppl in 12 months. (using a proportionate reduction and mirroring the WTI Oil Future market trades, which are bets in real terms obviously.....
Mr Spoon, how far off the mark do you think this little thought exercise is?
Worth noting that oil is sold in dollars. With the GBP/USD dropping to low levels, UK (and European) customers are getting a double hit. Left hook with rising oil prices, followed by a swift uppercut to the chin due to currency markets. run with me here....
1. https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/CL*0/futur...
This page shows West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures, in live purchases.
People betting/guessing on future Crude oil prices. WTI is an international, bulk, gross indicator of oil supply/use.
Kerosene 28, heating oil to us follows world trends.
Today WTI is $109/barrel and contracts are selling for $110/barrel for July2022, with a volume of sales of 88,000 contracts for today.
2. The only other timeframes with decent contract volumes traded, or in other words contracts that people have enough confidence to do a deal on, are 6month at 14,000 contracts and 12 months at 5,000 contracts.
3. The 6 month price is traded at $98/barrel and the 12 month price $90/barrel
4. The Heating oil reflection of this is 90ppl today, 81ppl in 6 months and 74ppl in 12 months. (using a proportionate reduction and mirroring the WTI Oil Future market trades, which are bets in real terms obviously.....
Mr Spoon, how far off the mark do you think this little thought exercise is?
Same goes for petrol at the fuel pump.
The £ has lost more than 10% of its value to the dollar in the last 12 months...
soupdragon1 said:
The_Doc said:
Some days I'm quite clever... other days not so much....
run with me here....
1. https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/CL*0/futur...
This page shows West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures, in live purchases.
People betting/guessing on future Crude oil prices. WTI is an international, bulk, gross indicator of oil supply/use.
Kerosene 28, heating oil to us follows world trends.
Today WTI is $109/barrel and contracts are selling for $110/barrel for July2022, with a volume of sales of 88,000 contracts for today.
2. The only other timeframes with decent contract volumes traded, or in other words contracts that people have enough confidence to do a deal on, are 6month at 14,000 contracts and 12 months at 5,000 contracts.
3. The 6 month price is traded at $98/barrel and the 12 month price $90/barrel
4. The Heating oil reflection of this is 90ppl today, 81ppl in 6 months and 74ppl in 12 months. (using a proportionate reduction and mirroring the WTI Oil Future market trades, which are bets in real terms obviously.....
Mr Spoon, how far off the mark do you think this little thought exercise is?
Worth noting that oil is sold in dollars. With the GBP/USD dropping to low levels, UK (and European) customers are getting a double hit. Left hook with rising oil prices, followed by a swift uppercut to the chin due to currency markets. run with me here....
1. https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/CL*0/futur...
This page shows West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures, in live purchases.
People betting/guessing on future Crude oil prices. WTI is an international, bulk, gross indicator of oil supply/use.
Kerosene 28, heating oil to us follows world trends.
Today WTI is $109/barrel and contracts are selling for $110/barrel for July2022, with a volume of sales of 88,000 contracts for today.
2. The only other timeframes with decent contract volumes traded, or in other words contracts that people have enough confidence to do a deal on, are 6month at 14,000 contracts and 12 months at 5,000 contracts.
3. The 6 month price is traded at $98/barrel and the 12 month price $90/barrel
4. The Heating oil reflection of this is 90ppl today, 81ppl in 6 months and 74ppl in 12 months. (using a proportionate reduction and mirroring the WTI Oil Future market trades, which are bets in real terms obviously.....
Mr Spoon, how far off the mark do you think this little thought exercise is?
Same goes for petrol at the fuel pump.
The has lost more than 10% of its value to the dollar in the last 12 months...
The_Doc said:
Some days I'm quite clever... other days not so much....
run with me here....
1. https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/CL*0/futur...
This page shows West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures, in live purchases.
People betting/guessing on future Crude oil prices. WTI is an international, bulk, gross indicator of oil supply/use.
Kerosene 28, heating oil to us follows world trends.
Today WTI is $109/barrel and contracts are selling for $110/barrel for July2022, with a volume of sales of 88,000 contracts for today.
2. The only other timeframes with decent contract volumes traded, or in other words contracts that people have enough confidence to do a deal on, are 6month at 14,000 contracts and 12 months at 5,000 contracts.
3. The 6 month price is traded at $98/barrel and the 12 month price $90/barrel
4. The Heating oil reflection of this is 90ppl today, 81ppl in 6 months and 74ppl in 12 months. (using a proportionate reduction and mirroring the WTI Oil Future market trades, which are bets in real terms obviously.....
Mr Spoon, how far off the mark do you think this little thought exercise is?
Further than you would like it to be. run with me here....
1. https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/CL*0/futur...
This page shows West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures, in live purchases.
People betting/guessing on future Crude oil prices. WTI is an international, bulk, gross indicator of oil supply/use.
Kerosene 28, heating oil to us follows world trends.
Today WTI is $109/barrel and contracts are selling for $110/barrel for July2022, with a volume of sales of 88,000 contracts for today.
2. The only other timeframes with decent contract volumes traded, or in other words contracts that people have enough confidence to do a deal on, are 6month at 14,000 contracts and 12 months at 5,000 contracts.
3. The 6 month price is traded at $98/barrel and the 12 month price $90/barrel
4. The Heating oil reflection of this is 90ppl today, 81ppl in 6 months and 74ppl in 12 months. (using a proportionate reduction and mirroring the WTI Oil Future market trades, which are bets in real terms obviously.....
Mr Spoon, how far off the mark do you think this little thought exercise is?
The issue with looking at world commodity data is it is world commodity data. When the numbers line up, it is easy to make connection and through luck rather than judgement, it has been possible to link everything you mention above to the price of fuel, so therefore applying coloration and causation. However we both know coloration does not imply causation.
The unknowns in lots of calculations are supply and demand, geographical situations, weather, war, competition, profiteering (yes, using that magic word). Quite simply the price of oil could crash but here in the UK you could see rapid price increases. Not so long ago this happened, and many times in history it has done.
Heres another example, it takes 3 days to turn on the Essar to Kingsbury pipeline. 3 days to turn it off. So in that period, the competition to Valero's Kingsbury terminal know there are issues with supply (usually rail fed) so for 3 days they can kick the arse out of the market. Yes Valero might be cheaper, but they have no stock, or you have no allocation. When they turn it off it works in Valero's favour. So you lose some, you win some.
Refinery and storage facility shutdowns, breakdowns, catastrophe's all change the price of oil to you, the end user.
There are endless factors that cause the price of fuel to change. But the industry has needed a constant regular source and using Platts has been one of them.
Quite simply, it is exceptionally difficult for anyone in the industry, let alone out of it, to have any idea of what the future market will be doing. They also have the same chance of working out where the normalised price should be.
Mr Spoon said:
Even in this thread, it is assumed heating oil is cheaper in the warmer months.
From the raw data downloaded from here:https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpricein...
A quick analysis of the average monthly ppl since July 2011 - would indeed confirm the assumption that heating oil is (marginally) cheaper for consumers in the summer months.
Whilst the largest delta is only 6.8ppl - it all adds up. 135 for a tank full for me.
Edit to add: Those figures above are skewed a bit by the 2022 price hike. If we remove that then the picture is some what less:
Still £80 a tank for me.
Edited by FunkyGibbon on Thursday 26th May 17:22
The_Doc said:
So,
I pay for electricity from EDF and I get heating oil from my local supplier,
Do I get 200 off EDF Elec and 200 off my kerosene?
Or are heating oil customers immediately 200 worse off now (thanks Rishi)
OK OKI pay for electricity from EDF and I get heating oil from my local supplier,
Do I get 200 off EDF Elec and 200 off my kerosene?
Or are heating oil customers immediately 200 worse off now (thanks Rishi)
"Energy suppliers will deliver this support to households with a domestic electricity meter over six months from October. Direct debit and credit customers will have the money credited to their account, while customers with pre-payment meters will have the money applied to their meter or paid via a voucher."
found this on the gov page: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/cost-of...
so its £400 off everyone's elec bill
FunkyGibbon said:
Mr Spoon said:
Even in this thread, it is assumed heating oil is cheaper in the warmer months.
From the raw data downloaded from here:https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpricein...
A quick analysis of the average monthly ppl since July 2011 - would indeed confirm the assumption that heating oil is (marginally) cheaper for consumers in the summer months.
Whilst the largest delta is only 6.8ppl - it all adds up. 135 for a tank full for me.
Its a sort of "sort of yes cheaper in the summer, but sometimes not" answer.
- and I made disparaging comments about a utensil, but you were in super-grump mood back then....
Edited by The_Doc on Thursday 26th May 17:26
The_Doc said:
Have at look at https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&... Page 17 where we diced the numbers and didn't really get a good answer.
Its a sort of "sort of yes cheaper in the summer, but sometimes not" answer.
- and I made disparaging comments about a utensil, but you were in super-grump mood back then....
Apologies, forgot the data had be sliced before. Depends on how granular you look I guess.Its a sort of "sort of yes cheaper in the summer, but sometimes not" answer.
- and I made disparaging comments about a utensil, but you were in super-grump mood back then....
Edited by The_Doc on Thursday 26th May 17:26
not sure I get the super-grump mood reference. I mean I probably was as I had paid a fortune for oil
Edited by FunkyGibbon on Thursday 26th May 17:41
The_Doc said:
OK OK
"Energy suppliers will deliver this support to households with a domestic electricity meter over six months from October. Direct debit and credit customers will have the money credited to their account, while customers with pre-payment meters will have the money applied to their meter or paid via a voucher."
found this on the gov page: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/cost-of...
so its 400 off everyone's elec bill
That's pretty generous - effectively 10 months" free" electricity based on our current ~£40 monthly direct debit."Energy suppliers will deliver this support to households with a domestic electricity meter over six months from October. Direct debit and credit customers will have the money credited to their account, while customers with pre-payment meters will have the money applied to their meter or paid via a voucher."
found this on the gov page: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/cost-of...
so its 400 off everyone's elec bill
Combined with the effectively unlimited free firewood that last winter delivered, we can easily get a year out of a 1000l of oil so we're in not bad shape for the foreseeable future.
hmg said:
How do you manage that! do you live in a rabbit hutch?
I'm not quite sure myself going by some of the crazy consumption figures reported in the press. 2 people and a dog in a 4 bedroom stone cottage on a north facing hillside on Aberdeenshire. We aren't really ones for gadgets so i guess the only things permanently running are the router and the fridge/freezer. Cooking is also done on an old Stanley oil fired range that fires up for a few hours each evening and heats the water at the same time. There's a fairly centrally located woodburner that's lit whenever anyone's at home in the colder months.
What should be a hopelessly inefficient house actually works out to be very reasonable to run.
The_Doc said:
FunkyGibbon said:
Mr Spoon said:
Even in this thread, it is assumed heating oil is cheaper in the warmer months.
From the raw data downloaded from here:https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpricein...
A quick analysis of the average monthly ppl since July 2011 - would indeed confirm the assumption that heating oil is (marginally) cheaper for consumers in the summer months.
Whilst the largest delta is only 6.8ppl - it all adds up. 135 for a tank full for me.
Its a sort of "sort of yes cheaper in the summer, but sometimes not" answer.
- and I made disparaging comments about a utensil, but you were in super-grump mood back then....
Edited by The_Doc on Thursday 26th May 17:26
Mr Spoon said:
If I came across in any way shape or form as a super grump, then I'll apologise. Not intended and I've put away the knife and just kept the spoon.
I could not tell whether The_Doc was attributing grumpiness to me or you - either way - its warm and sunny sunny enjoy the 
Who needs oil eh? 
Pflanzgarten said:
Me! At 89p p/ltr this week
Paid 90.8p/ltr for 500 litres yesterday from a local supplier, actually a little bit cheaper than BJ and HFD quoted for their standard delivery and turned up next day.The BJ equivalent of next day is at 108.38p/ltr or £578.48 or nearly 18p/ltr more expensive.
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