Heating Oil Price Rocketing
Discussion
soupdragon1 said:
Plenty of supply and half way through winter. Been fairly mild up until now hence plenty of supply and while macro impacts can influence, supply demand will drive the price.
Globally, heating oil prices have been all over the place
Shorter term chart
Big red candle, dropping $5 in the last couple of hours
It could go either way but don't get too caught up in headlines. Plenty of supply right now:
With good supply levels, not a huge deal if some supply takes the long way round, avoiding the hot spots.
I'll just buy as I need it. I don't see big drops or big increases at all this year, outside of a black swan event.
Candles have their place but surely an atlas would be a more useful tool in this case? Africa is bloody big and if tankers from the east have to go around it to get to Europe, it takes quite a bit of mental gymnastics to think that won’t affect the price to us, all else being equal.Globally, heating oil prices have been all over the place
Shorter term chart
Big red candle, dropping $5 in the last couple of hours
It could go either way but don't get too caught up in headlines. Plenty of supply right now:
With good supply levels, not a huge deal if some supply takes the long way round, avoiding the hot spots.
I'll just buy as I need it. I don't see big drops or big increases at all this year, outside of a black swan event.
Jambo85 said:
soupdragon1 said:
Plenty of supply and half way through winter. Been fairly mild up until now hence plenty of supply and while macro impacts can influence, supply demand will drive the price.
Globally, heating oil prices have been all over the place
Shorter term chart
Big red candle, dropping $5 in the last couple of hours
It could go either way but don't get too caught up in headlines. Plenty of supply right now:
With good supply levels, not a huge deal if some supply takes the long way round, avoiding the hot spots.
I'll just buy as I need it. I don't see big drops or big increases at all this year, outside of a black swan event.
Candles have their place but surely an atlas would be a more useful tool in this case? Africa is bloody big and if tankers from the east have to go around it to get to Europe, it takes quite a bit of mental gymnastics to think that won’t affect the price to us, all else being equal.Globally, heating oil prices have been all over the place
Shorter term chart
Big red candle, dropping $5 in the last couple of hours
It could go either way but don't get too caught up in headlines. Plenty of supply right now:
With good supply levels, not a huge deal if some supply takes the long way round, avoiding the hot spots.
I'll just buy as I need it. I don't see big drops or big increases at all this year, outside of a black swan event.
If you think of how much cost it would be to take a ship on that route, inc the extra time the asset (tanker) is out of commission for other work (can't sweat the asset as much due to longer time per voyage) add that all up in £, spread that across every litre on board (half a billion) even a very high £500k worth of additional cost per trip would move the price by 0.1p per litre
It would take £5m worth of extra cost to move the price by 1p.
It's really a non event in terms of price impact. One to keep an eye on, but not significant as of now. Of course, there is always a sentiment impact and if we had a supply shortage, then that would move the needle more. But sentiment always returns back to where supply and demand is and this minor inconvenience isn't enough for us in the UK to be worried about supply or price IMV.
The retailers will try to rinse people if they've got a headline to hide behind, plus, we're in a cold snap.
Let's see in a few weeks time
soupdragon1 said:
I said I wouldn't expect big rises or falls and I still believe that. Everyone has heard the news and knows where Africa is, so no need to get all churlish when I'm just sharing something that others might find useful.
I ordered more earlier this week and, oddly, fast delivery (within 5 days) was cheaper than slower (14 days). Never have any choice but to pay what is demanded at this time of year as our tank doesn’t hold enough to see us through. PRO 5T said:
PushedDover said:
Village Coop in North Yorkshire
65p a litre
You see, that's what royally f65p a litre
ks me off about this game and the s that run it. £50 more per thousand for no other reason than someone thinks they can get away with it.Audis5b9 said:
Should 500L see us through till the end of winter...? recently moved into this house and we've been through 600L in 50 days. (1900sqf 4 bed detached, 1980's).
We have two stupid conservatories sapping heat out of the house (One we can shut off, but the other we cannot). We keep the lounge around 18/19C all day and our bedroom similar when we are in there, other than that all the rooms are kept at 13-16C when not in use. (We have fitted a Drayton wiser system so have control of each room)
Seems like a lot.
I'm currently using 9l/day in a 2400sqf, D rated, detached. Set to 22deg from 6:30 to 9:00 and 17:00 to 23:00. We have two stupid conservatories sapping heat out of the house (One we can shut off, but the other we cannot). We keep the lounge around 18/19C all day and our bedroom similar when we are in there, other than that all the rooms are kept at 13-16C when not in use. (We have fitted a Drayton wiser system so have control of each room)
Seems like a lot.
PRO 5T said:
You see, that's what royally fks me off about this game and the s that run it. £50 more per thousand for no other reason than someone thinks they can get away with it.
Do you get that angry when you go into the coop and see that milk is 50% more than it is in Lidl a few streets away?ks me off about this game and the s that run it. £50 more per thousand for no other reason than someone thinks they can get away with it.Chill out and either pay your preferred supplier or phone around for the best price like everyone else does!
Irritatingly, since we are moving house currently, I have just filled up the house we are buying (risky because we haven't exchanged contracts yet) and had to top up the one we are selling (minimum order 500l, but we will have it until around May/June so will use a bit before we sell). Where we are moving from is reasonably well insulated and has an 1800l tank. Where we are moving to is older, twice the size and has a 1200l tank. I am going to miss having a tank that lasts for nearly 12 months' usage; being able to buy at the cheapest times and not need to top up in the middle of winter has been great.
How easy is it to fit a second tank, I wonder?
How easy is it to fit a second tank, I wonder?
Jobbo said:
Irritatingly, since we are moving house currently, I have just filled up the house we are buying (risky because we haven't exchanged contracts yet) and had to top up the one we are selling (minimum order 500l, but we will have it until around May/June so will use a bit before we sell). Where we are moving from is reasonably well insulated and has an 1800l tank. Where we are moving to is older, twice the size and has a 1200l tank. I am going to miss having a tank that lasts for nearly 12 months' usage; being able to buy at the cheapest times and not need to top up in the middle of winter has been great.
How easy is it to fit a second tank, I wonder?
Probably almost cheaper and more convenient to replace with a a single big tank?How easy is it to fit a second tank, I wonder?
I was looking at Oil as an alternative , as our existing gas boiler will need replacing .
obviously cost of new oil boiler / oil storage tank etc.
what would be a rough cost for the oil for a 4 bedroom house in Hampshire and how much oil do you use a year ? prefer to install a large tank that would see us through the year
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