Heating Oil Price Rocketing

[Actual]

FMOB said:

soupdragon1 said:

Most oil tanks are double skinned these days

New ones are, plenty of old ones out there that aren't double skinned or bunded.

I fear that the oil tank vulnerability is the outlet pipe and isolation tap and the pipe from the tank to the boiler. If they are compromised then would the tank just drain of contents regardless of being double skinned or bunded? The outlet pipe on my oil tank seems to be quite exposed and vulnerable.

[FMOB]

Actual said:

FMOB said:

soupdragon1 said:

Most oil tanks are double skinned these days

New ones are, plenty of old ones out there that aren't double skinned or bunded.

I fear that the oil tank vulnerability is the outlet pipe and isolation tap and the pipe from the tank to the boiler. If they are compromised then would the tank just drain of contents regardless of being double skinned or bunded? The outlet pipe on my oil tank seems to be quite exposed and vulnerable.

Absolutely agree, the outlet on my tank is also very vulnerable so I am putting off getting some work done that is near it.

Keep that bar of Dove soap handy to rub into the split to provide a temporary seal (well that is what I been told). Seriously considering buying a spill kit just in case.

[CharlieGee]

FMOB said:

Would still go back to gas, with gas you don't have to worry about leaks contaminating the ground or water courses, etc.

An ex colleague had a tank leak after being filled, lost ~100 litres resulting in the necessary new tank, excavation of several cubic metres of contaminated soil, etc and a really big bill.

Not all house insurance policies cover the risks of an oil tank leaking and the cleanup.

Just for the amusement of all I’ll add the following…

We had a leak of 1300 litres in December 2023. 25 year old steel tank that rusted through the bottom. Insurance company covered it but the total bill was around £60k, the hole they dug to excavate would have fit a decent sized pool.

For anyone reading with an old tank get it booked for a change. Cost us £3k for a new one of 1900 litres all in.

[FMOB]

CharlieGee said:

FMOB said:

Would still go back to gas, with gas you don't have to worry about leaks contaminating the ground or water courses, etc.

An ex colleague had a tank leak after being filled, lost ~100 litres resulting in the necessary new tank, excavation of several cubic metres of contaminated soil, etc and a really big bill.

Not all house insurance policies cover the risks of an oil tank leaking and the cleanup.

Just for the amusement of all I’ll add the following…

We had a leak of 1300 litres in December 2023. 25 year old steel tank that rusted through the bottom. Insurance company covered it but the total bill was around £60k, the hole they dug to excavate would have fit a decent sized pool.

For anyone reading with an old tank get it booked for a change. Cost us £3k for a new one of 1900 litres all in.

Amusing, no, terrifying, yes

[silentbrown]

68.5 for 1000l from local supplier today.

[The_Doc]

silentbrown said:

68.5 for 1000l from local supplier today.

Including VAT?
whereabouts, please?

[soupdragon1]

63.9 PPL Inc Vat here in NI at the moment, next day delivery. No such thing as cheaper prices for advance orders in NI, just flat prices regardless of del times.

[Harpoon]

We had 1000l last Thursday (29th Feb) at 64.50ppl + VAT (Shropshire).

[Mr Penguin]

Time to order. I really regret buying a tank that holds 3/4 of a year's supply and I wish I had a bigger one so I could order in June every year.

1000 litres £668.77 (62.5ppl ex VAT)

Graph of the average UK price for the last 4 years
https://www.boilerjuice.com/kerosene-prices/

[soupdragon1]

soupdragon1 said:

Jambo85 said:

soupdragon1 said:

Plenty of supply and half way through winter. Been fairly mild up until now hence plenty of supply and while macro impacts can influence, supply demand will drive the price.

Globally, heating oil prices have been all over the place



Shorter term chart



Big red candle, dropping $5 in the last couple of hours

It could go either way but don't get too caught up in headlines. Plenty of supply right now:



With good supply levels, not a huge deal if some supply takes the long way round, avoiding the hot spots.

I'll just buy as I need it. I don't see big drops or big increases at all this year, outside of a black swan event.

Candles have their place but surely an atlas would be a more useful tool in this case? Africa is bloody big and if tankers from the east have to go around it to get to Europe, it takes quite a bit of mental gymnastics to think that won’t affect the price to us, all else being equal.

I said I wouldn't expect big rises or falls and I still believe that. Everyone has heard the news and knows where Africa is, so no need to get all churlish when I'm just sharing something that others might find useful.

If you think of how much cost it would be to take a ship on that route, inc the extra time the asset (tanker) is out of commission for other work (can't sweat the asset as much due to longer time per voyage) add that all up in £, spread that across every litre on board (half a billion) even a very high £500k worth of additional cost per trip would move the price by 0.1p per litre

It would take £5m worth of extra cost to move the price by 1p.

It's really a non event in terms of price impact. One to keep an eye on, but not significant as of now. Of course, there is always a sentiment impact and if we had a supply shortage, then that would move the needle more. But sentiment always returns back to where supply and demand is and this minor inconvenience isn't enough for us in the UK to be worried about supply or price IMV.

The retailers will try to rinse people if they've got a headline to hide behind, plus, we're in a cold snap.

Let's see in a few weeks time

Quoting from January but I think it's safe to say that the Houthis didn't move the needle after all (apart from the short term sentiment price gouge that some would have been sucked into)

[NDA]

I've just had 2,000 @ .69p (inc VAT) - cheapest I could find.

[MisanoPayments]

Just ordered 1000 litres at 71.92ppl (by phone) - Hampshire.

[PRO5T]

Our oil club was 66ppl last weekend I think.

[soupdragon1]

64.1p inc VAT in Northern Ireland at the moment

[The_Doc]

65.7ppl with the VAT on 500litres in Cumbria today.
would have been 64.7ppl on 900+
New boiler going in next week, should be 15% more efficient than the 29 year old one we have, so all oil pricing goes down 15% !!

(and the man maths hides away the cost of the new item,

and installation !

and I haven't serviced the old one in three years, saving me £150, because who services a dying item ?

and I'll strip the old one of parts and ebay them, because who has parts for a 29 years old boiler?)

Edited by The_Doc on Monday 22 April 21:02

[ChevronB19]

The_Doc said:

65.7ppl with the VAT on 500litres in Cumbria today.
would have been 66.7ppl on 900+
New boiler going in next week, should be 15% more efficient than the 29 year old one we have, so all oil pricing goes down 15% !!

(and the man maths hides away the cost of the new item,

and installation !

and I haven't serviced the old one in three years, saving me £150, because who services a dying item ?

and I'll strip the old one of parts and ebay them, because who has parts for a 29 years old boiler?)

Given we are in the same area, could you PM me with who you’re getting to do the boiler?

[alscar]

67.67p for 1,300 litres top up last week in Bucks.
Got 8% off initial price quoted.

[The_Doc]

ChevronB19 said:

Given we are in the same area, could you PM me with who you’re getting to do the boiler?

Roger.

Start practicing the charm offensive though, it's a two-brother combo, who do electrics, plumbing, central heating, installations, and external groundworks.
They did 75% of the downstairs of our place 12 months ago. They are ace.
6 month lead time,
won't answer the phone unless they know the number.
Will usually drop everything and rescue if you ring them with a leak/emergency once you are in the "circle of trust"

I had to deploy my Huddersfield-bred wife on the phone the first time before they would take us seriously. (hint hint)
Lead brother carries a Nokia 1600.....

[skwdenyer]

Re old tanks, around here the suppliers will no longer deliver to single-skinned steel tanks: change it, or no oil.

Re pricing arbitrage, it is likely our next property will be on mains gas, but I’m considering buying a second hand oil boiler and tank so that I have choices should gas prices go crazy once again

[KTMsm]

skwdenyer said:

Re old tanks, around here the suppliers will no longer deliver to single-skinned steel tanks: change it, or no oil.

Who told you that? And where are you ?

I'm in Warwickshire and was chatting to the driver who supplied my last delivery, he said it's up to the driver to make the decision if it's unsafe but they're told not to leave anyone without oil but he did just refuse some gypsies who had an old ibec they'd been using for years