Is anyone moving now?
Discussion
C70R said:
Frik said:
C70R said:
Just caught the news that the average rate of a 2yr fixed deal available now is 6%. Surely this is going to kill the market stone dead?
Sounds dangerously close to speculation, that! 
No clear signs of any effect yet, but we're watching the market in our intended destinations closely. Houses are still coming to market, and not just rubbish.
Mind you I'm glad I've still got plenty to time run on my fixed rate.
RizzoTheRat said:
Is it just that it puts people off because they've been so low for so long, or are the higher rates really a problem? My 4.5ish% mortgage in the noughties seemed fine, and plenty of people took out mortgages at much higher rates than that in the 80's and 90's. I can see it's going to hit people who's existing mortgage repayments are going up, but will it stop people taking out new mortgages or just mean they buy slightly smaller places?
Mind you I'm glad I've still got plenty to time run on my fixed rate.
What multiple mortgage did you get in the 80s and 90s? In the 80s, that was 3x single / 2.5x joint (and only if they didn't think your wife would have children) income. Today people are borrowing 4.5x/5x joint income...Mind you I'm glad I've still got plenty to time run on my fixed rate.
By one calculation, 6% today is the same cost (% of earnings) to service (on average) as 14% was back "in period"...
As a first time buyer in the 2000s too I think my first mortgage was something in the 5% range. We just bought and borrowed what we could afford and what we were "allowed" to by the borrowing.
I think the issue some 20 years later is that the usual issue of salary not rising in line with housing price is more stark.
I think the issue some 20 years later is that the usual issue of salary not rising in line with housing price is more stark.
edc said:
As a first time buyer in the 2000s too I think my first mortgage was something in the 5% range. We just bought and borrowed what we could afford and what we were "allowed" to by the borrowing.
I think the issue some 20 years later is that the usual issue of salary not rising in line with housing price is more stark.
Exactly - low interest rates and high income multiples have bridged (and partialy caused) the growing gap between income and house prices which makes the reversion to higher rates fairly painful.I think the issue some 20 years later is that the usual issue of salary not rising in line with housing price is more stark.
My first mortgage rate was 6%, but I'd need to borrow about four times the amount to buy the same place now that I did back then. The salary for the type of job I was doing then has gone up far less.
skwdenyer said:
What multiple mortgage did you get in the 80s and 90s? In the 80s, that was 3x single / 2.5x joint (and only if they didn't think your wife would have children) income. Today people are borrowing 4.5x/5x joint income...
By one calculation, 6% today is the same cost (% of earnings) to service (on average) as 14% was back "in period"...
Think I was on about 3.5x salary in the noughties. Presumably you mean as interest rates go up the salary multipliers will go down and people won't be able to get such big mortgages, causing the market to slow down a chunk, which makes sense. But then again if first time buyers can't afford to buy will rents go up meaning more developers/BTL/landlords buying places instead?By one calculation, 6% today is the same cost (% of earnings) to service (on average) as 14% was back "in period"...
Took out my current mortgage a bit over a year ago and never did find out what multiple they'd lend me, I worked out how much I wanted to spend a month and what budget that bought me, and the bank said yes.
C70R said:
Mumbles is a lovely spot. I grew up with family in the area, and visits were a pleasure (particularly with Joes Ice Cream thrown in).
Swansea is a funny old city. Ok if you want to be in Swansea, but dreadful if you want to get anywhere else that isn't Cardiff.
Mumbles is what drew me to the area - but I’ve paid for conveyancing and surveys on 2 places there now and both fell through. What’s left just doesn’t appeal. The part of Swansea I’ve found feels like it’s own little area with nice bars, coffee shops etc. This is the property - Swansea is a funny old city. Ok if you want to be in Swansea, but dreadful if you want to get anywhere else that isn't Cardiff.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/125252033#/...
I’ve never lived in an apartment block so that aspect would be new to me.
Petrus1983 said:
C70R said:
Mumbles is a lovely spot. I grew up with family in the area, and visits were a pleasure (particularly with Joes Ice Cream thrown in).
Swansea is a funny old city. Ok if you want to be in Swansea, but dreadful if you want to get anywhere else that isn't Cardiff.
Mumbles is what drew me to the area - but I’ve paid for conveyancing and surveys on 2 places there now and both fell through. What’s left just doesn’t appeal. The part of Swansea I’ve found feels like it’s own little area with nice bars, coffee shops etc. This is the property - Swansea is a funny old city. Ok if you want to be in Swansea, but dreadful if you want to get anywhere else that isn't Cardiff.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/125252033#/...
I’ve never lived in an apartment block so that aspect would be new to me.
£400k for a flat in Swansea is insane money.
C70R said:
Petrus1983 said:
C70R said:
Mumbles is a lovely spot. I grew up with family in the area, and visits were a pleasure (particularly with Joes Ice Cream thrown in).
Swansea is a funny old city. Ok if you want to be in Swansea, but dreadful if you want to get anywhere else that isn't Cardiff.
Mumbles is what drew me to the area - but I’ve paid for conveyancing and surveys on 2 places there now and both fell through. What’s left just doesn’t appeal. The part of Swansea I’ve found feels like it’s own little area with nice bars, coffee shops etc. This is the property - Swansea is a funny old city. Ok if you want to be in Swansea, but dreadful if you want to get anywhere else that isn't Cardiff.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/125252033#/...
I’ve never lived in an apartment block so that aspect would be new to me.
£400k for a flat in Swansea is insane money.
Petrus - what's the square footage? it looks comparable to a 3 bedroom house.
Muzzer79 said:
C70R said:
Petrus1983 said:
C70R said:
Mumbles is a lovely spot. I grew up with family in the area, and visits were a pleasure (particularly with Joes Ice Cream thrown in).
Swansea is a funny old city. Ok if you want to be in Swansea, but dreadful if you want to get anywhere else that isn't Cardiff.
Mumbles is what drew me to the area - but I’ve paid for conveyancing and surveys on 2 places there now and both fell through. What’s left just doesn’t appeal. The part of Swansea I’ve found feels like it’s own little area with nice bars, coffee shops etc. This is the property - Swansea is a funny old city. Ok if you want to be in Swansea, but dreadful if you want to get anywhere else that isn't Cardiff.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/125252033#/...
I’ve never lived in an apartment block so that aspect would be new to me.
£400k for a flat in Swansea is insane money.
Petrus - what's the square footage? it looks comparable to a 3 bedroom house.
skwdenyer said:
What multiple mortgage did you get in the 80s and 90s? In the 80s, that was 3x single / 2.5x joint (and only if they didn't think your wife would have children) income. Today people are borrowing 4.5x/5x joint income...
Todays mortgages often have much longer terms than 'back in the day' it's not uncommon to see 35 or 40 year mortgagesMark Benson said:
Muzzer79 said:
C70R said:
Petrus1983 said:
C70R said:
Mumbles is a lovely spot. I grew up with family in the area, and visits were a pleasure (particularly with Joes Ice Cream thrown in).
Swansea is a funny old city. Ok if you want to be in Swansea, but dreadful if you want to get anywhere else that isn't Cardiff.
Mumbles is what drew me to the area - but I’ve paid for conveyancing and surveys on 2 places there now and both fell through. What’s left just doesn’t appeal. The part of Swansea I’ve found feels like it’s own little area with nice bars, coffee shops etc. This is the property - Swansea is a funny old city. Ok if you want to be in Swansea, but dreadful if you want to get anywhere else that isn't Cardiff.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/125252033#/...
I’ve never lived in an apartment block so that aspect would be new to me.
£400k for a flat in Swansea is insane money.
Petrus - what's the square footage? it looks comparable to a 3 bedroom house.
It appeals because it’s almost unique - there’s 8 that offer a duplex arrangement, there’s 2 balconies, that really is the beach outside the window, the master bedroom is a great size with a giant (windowless!) walk in wardrobe, the fixtures and fittings have been re done to a high standard. But… it’s the most expensive 3 bed apartment by a country mile in Swansea. I’m not sure about the Sq ft - I’ll try and work it out later from the dimensions they’ve listed.
But if you think £400k for a 3 bed in Swansea is a lot, look at this stunning one along the coast is Cardiff - https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/78163761#/?...
But if you think £400k for a 3 bed in Swansea is a lot, look at this stunning one along the coast is Cardiff - https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/78163761#/?...
troika said:
Seems an awful lot for a flat in Wales. The fact it hasn’t sold quickly tells you a lot. The addressable market for it must be absolutely tiny. Sit back and bide your time IMHO.
Yes - I think you’re correct. I think I’ll miss out on it, but will sleep more comfortably somewhere else. chopper602 said:
skwdenyer said:
What multiple mortgage did you get in the 80s and 90s? In the 80s, that was 3x single / 2.5x joint (and only if they didn't think your wife would have children) income. Today people are borrowing 4.5x/5x joint income...
Todays mortgages often have much longer terms than 'back in the day' it's not uncommon to see 35 or 40 year mortgagesSure there are longer terms. And I realise it's all about the monthlies for some people. But the problem is that "the ladder" doesn't work then.
After 5 years of payments on a 40 year mortgage, you've only repaid about 3.5% of the principal. Let's say you borrowed £200k against a £222k property at 6% on a 5-year fix. After 5 years, you've paid £7k of principal down. So now you've got £29 of equity in the property. You want to trade up to a bigger property - where's your deposit coming from? These long mortgages really only work in a scenario of high capital growth. If, as seems likely, prices will stagnate, it is hard to see how you'd have been much worse-off renting and continuing to save (especially if savings rates go up and stay up for a bit).
Also, the longer terms don't fix the problem with multiples.
Let's say you earn £60k. You borrow at 5x = £300k. Over 40 years, that's ~£1650/mth.
Now, instead, borrow 3x = £180k. Over 25 years, that's ~£1150/mth
Dragging the term out to 40 years hasn't dropped the payments to the same level as they were in the past. That 6% over 40 years on 5x is, in fact, the same as 10% over 25 years on 3x. Even back then, we thought 10% was quite high!
If you want to get a 5x loan to be the same monthly payment as a 3x loan used to be, you can't do it - compound interest kills you. A 100 year loan will be little cheaper than a 50 year loan, for instance, at 6%.
Mark Benson said:
Muzzer79 said:
C70R said:
Petrus1983 said:
C70R said:
Mumbles is a lovely spot. I grew up with family in the area, and visits were a pleasure (particularly with Joes Ice Cream thrown in).
Swansea is a funny old city. Ok if you want to be in Swansea, but dreadful if you want to get anywhere else that isn't Cardiff.
Mumbles is what drew me to the area - but I’ve paid for conveyancing and surveys on 2 places there now and both fell through. What’s left just doesn’t appeal. The part of Swansea I’ve found feels like it’s own little area with nice bars, coffee shops etc. This is the property - Swansea is a funny old city. Ok if you want to be in Swansea, but dreadful if you want to get anywhere else that isn't Cardiff.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/125252033#/...
I’ve never lived in an apartment block so that aspect would be new to me.
£400k for a flat in Swansea is insane money.
Petrus - what's the square footage? it looks comparable to a 3 bedroom house.
RizzoTheRat said:
Is it just that it puts people off because they've been so low for so long, or are the higher rates really a problem? My 4.5ish% mortgage in the noughties seemed fine, and plenty of people took out mortgages at much higher rates than that in the 80's and 90's. I can see it's going to hit people who's existing mortgage repayments are going up, but will it stop people taking out new mortgages or just mean they buy slightly smaller places?
Mind you I'm glad I've still got plenty to time run on my fixed rate.
I'm not sure how it is for others but for example in our case we could borrow up to £500k. We ended up being a place for £400k even though we could technically afford to go higher. Mainly because a mortgage of £500k would have eaten too much disposable income which was going to be required for increasing costs going on bills and lifestyle meaning we would be dangerously close to spending 90-95% of all income before savings. We chose to scale it back to ensure we had enough left after to bills to allow them to creep up a bit further, continue to save and not need to scale back lifestyle choices. Mind you I'm glad I've still got plenty to time run on my fixed rate.
Could we have afforded the higher mortgage of £500k., Yes. Would it have been squeaky bum time if something broke? Absolutely.
Very glad because 4.5% is a hell of a lot more interest at £500k than £400k, and more so than the £100,000 the house we bought cost back in the 90's.
Petrus1983 said:
All warnings have been heeded. Back to RightMove!
I've missed this until now. I own a BTL in the marina, albeit the older part, but barely 5 mins walk from that one you showed us.The flat in question probably hasn't sold due an ongoing increase in anti-social behaviour in the dunes directly in front of the property, particularly in the summer. Basically kids coming down on mopeds, getting drunk, starting fires, big fights, vandalism of local balconies and loads of litter left strewn - check the Swansea Post and indeed local facebook for details. (There is an active marina FB group that covers this in detail, regularly).
As far as I understand they have thrown alot of policing at it with regular evening patrols to calm it down, but I suspect it still goes on.
I'm quite suprised they haven't accepted your offer, but I think you have done well to dodge a potential bullet there.
Always do your research.
If you want to be near the sea, I'd keep your search going in mumbles, I expect £400k will get you a nice little cottage up there, or indeed a larger property tucked up in Limeslade or Thistleboon.
Edited by MattyD803 on Thursday 6th October 14:50
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