Is anyone moving now?

[Petrus1983]

C70R said:

Congratulations. If it's the one that's up at £270k, that's far more in-line with what I would expect a flat to cost in Swansea.

Thanks - there’s one at £270k and one at £280k in the same vicinity - the £280k was night and day nicer.

[skwdenyer]

C70R said:

pb8g09 said:

I just read on BBC that Lloyds have speculated that property prices will drop 8% over the next 12 months and then continue to stagnate for the following 4 years.

Thoughts?

I've seen everything from "stalling" to "at least 10% drop" speculated on for 2023. As it suggests, it's just speculation at the moment.

Agents for the vendors we're buying from (Yorkshire Dales) are sounding *very* downbeat - lots of listings, nothing moving.

[leef44]

pb8g09 said:

I just read on BBC that Lloyds have speculated that property prices will drop 8% over the next 12 months and then continue to stagnate for the following 4 years.

Thoughts?

I saw the highest rated comment on there which said that Lloyds is looking to puchase many properties as Landlord/Agent to add to its property portfolio.

I didn't realise it did this kind of business but it would make sense for them to talk down the market if they are looking to an upcoming large portfolio purchase.

[C70R]

leef44 said:

pb8g09 said:

I just read on BBC that Lloyds have speculated that property prices will drop 8% over the next 12 months and then continue to stagnate for the following 4 years.

Thoughts?

I saw the highest rated comment on there which said that Lloyds is looking to puchase many properties as Landlord/Agent to add to its property portfolio.

I didn't realise it did this kind of business but it would make sense for them to talk down the market if they are looking to an upcoming large portfolio purchase.

I very much doubt Lloyds are likely to sweep in and hoover up a load of cheap 3-bed semis in Stoke-on-Trent...

[edc]

pb8g09 said:

I just read on BBC that Lloyds have speculated that property prices will drop 8% over the next 12 months and then continue to stagnate for the following 4 years.

Thoughts?

Still comfortably up on summer and autumn 2020 prices.

[Flooble]

pb8g09 said:

I just read on BBC that Lloyds have speculated that property prices will drop 8% over the next 12 months and then continue to stagnate for the following 4 years.

Thoughts?

Based on past performance of Lloyds, I suspect that means we are about to see a boom in house prices.

[NeilMick]

Currently living with my parents after selling my house a few weeks ago and as a potential buyer now doesn't seem like a great to dive into a purchase if I can hold off some months.

Asking prices have only moved ever so slightly if at all from when rates were 2%, rather than 5%+. Don't see how this isn't going to impact prices if peoples spending/borrowing power has been reduced.

[Jules Sunley]

I'm just very glad we secured a rate last year and completed our move in December with a cheap 5 year fix. If we had wanted to do the same thing now at current rates it would be costing an extra 1500 quid a month and affordability would be outside of my comfort zone. That has got to affect sale prices going forwards unless rates come down a lot and that looks increasingly unlikely.

[Bluesgirl]

leef44 said:

I saw the highest rated comment on there which said that Lloyds is looking to puchase many properties as Landlord/Agent to add to its property portfolio.

I didn't realise it did this kind of business but it would make sense for them to talk down the market if they are looking to an upcoming large portfolio purchase.

Banks and insurance companies, like every other industry, have either in-house or external fund managers to manage their pension funds. Those pension funds will hold a mix of stocks, bonds, property and commodities. As with anything else, when those markets are falling, they will see them as investment opportunities. Property won't be any different, although they tend to concentrate on commercial and industrial property rather than residential.

I used to work in that sector.

[moles]

Lol talk down the market. Think fundamentals will do all the talking soon regarding where the property bubble is heading. Watch the housing shortage evaporate as people try and offload their overpriced over leveraged 2nd homes air b&b and BTL anchors.

[lizardbrain]

Jules Sunley said:

I'm just very glad we secured a rate last year and completed our move in December with a cheap 5 year fix. If we had wanted to do the same thing now at current rates it would be costing an extra 1500 quid a month and affordability would be outside of my comfort zone. That has got to affect sale prices going forwards unless rates come down a lot and that looks increasingly unlikely.

Are interest rates likely to come down in 5 years though? You likely have the remaining term at the higher rates?

[pb8g09]

moles said:

Lol talk down the market. Think fundamentals will do all the talking soon regarding where the property bubble is heading. Watch the housing shortage evaporate as people try and offload their overpriced over leveraged 2nd homes air b&b and BTL anchors.

Lol at 'BTL anchors'.

I suspect there will be a greater stock of rental properties hitting the market, but I think (and bloody hope, personally) that we go back to the days of do-er uppers actually being cheaper than finished homes. In Bournemouth, over the last couple of years the estate agents have had the cheek to price up, run down homes as 'having the potential to make your own' to the point that actually the price difference between the two was unfeasible. It meant a large number of over-priced plastic, glossy grey kitchens and grey carpet property developer homes kept coming up at absolutely exorbitant prices in average areas as these were the only people that could afford to do the work on them.

Unless the BoE/lenders can get the interest rates down, we're either going to hit a big recession as people tighten their belts, and/or we're going to see a very stagnant property market (and therefore falling prices). As you say, it's the fundamentals.

[Jules Sunley]

lizardbrain said:

Jules Sunley said:

I'm just very glad we secured a rate last year and completed our move in December with a cheap 5 year fix. If we had wanted to do the same thing now at current rates it would be costing an extra 1500 quid a month and affordability would be outside of my comfort zone. That has got to affect sale prices going forwards unless rates come down a lot and that looks increasingly unlikely.

Are interest rates likely to come down in 5 years though? You likely have the remaining term at the higher rates?

I agree, but as a repayment loan the balance will come down and I'm saving as much as I can alongside it so if that's the case i can pay a chunk off at the remortgage point at the end of 2026. At a 1.29 current interest rate the vast majority of the current monthly payment is capital.

[Sheepshanks]

pb8g09 said:

I suspect there will be a greater stock of rental properties hitting the market, but I think (and bloody hope, personally) that we go back to the days of do-er uppers actually being cheaper than finished homes. In Bournemouth, over the last couple of years the estate agents have had the cheek to price up, run down homes as 'having the potential to make your own' to the point that actually the price difference between the two was unfeasible. It meant a large number of over-priced plastic, glossy grey kitchens and grey carpet property developer homes kept coming up at absolutely exorbitant prices in average areas as these were the only people that could afford to do the work on them.

I always thought our local (West Cheshire) house prices didn't have the headroom to allow developers to buy and resell do-er uppers but what's been happening for a while is they've sold at reasonable prices and been snapped up by (presumably) cash (or effectively cash) paying builders / developers who have then done a quick refurb and marketed them for frankly laugh out loud prices - only for people to buy them!

Those buyers are in serious danger of catching very big colds if they didn't do long-term fixes or need to sell in the next few years.

Never mind the Covid bubble, there's one for sale near us which has just been reduced to below the price it sold for in 2018. A youngish couple we know just bought their first house which had had a very light refurb and they paid £425K - even trying to be dispassionate about it, I think they paid £75-£100K too much.

[Jcwjosh]

I am fretting a bit this week.

Our buyer has gone AWOL - they returned from holiday a week ago and now allegedly struck with covid, but not even returning our EA calls to ensure his mortgage porting is in place is worrying me.

All queries are being dealt with throughout the chain, i answered his last week, i imagine everyone will be in a position to exchange in 1-2 weeks but i am getting very nervous that this guy is going to F it all up.

Trying to give the benefit of the doubt that he has had a bad reaction to covid and just isnt up to picking up the phone but it does seem rather odd to me.

I feel like if i didnt know about this week of silence i would be fine, ignorance is bliss i guess

[shalmaneser]

Time to dive in here.

We're putting our SE London flat - classic 'starter flat' ex local authority - up for sale. Bought on my lonesome 7 odd years ago, now with two of us and a little one it's time to upsize - and get a bit nearer grandparents for childcare. EA seems to think I've made 100k since I bought the place (in a bit of a state; it's pretty nice in here now) but we'll see.

Looking to buy and a lot of the houses in South London seem to have dropped in price which is good for us as the mortgage is paid off and we've got a big lump of deposit. Time is against up as my wife will need to get back to work in May and would like to be moved in then for aforementioned childcare.

If prices do take a dive it'll be a bit of a stter but at over 50% deposit unless it's the end of the world we should be fine, and a house is always worth a house.

Not afraid of getting my hands dirty so will be getting a fixer-upper. Want to go open-plan downstairs (obvs) does anyone know roughly how much you're looking at to knock down an internal wall and add a steel in South London these days?

Desperately hoping we can find somewhere with a garage and side access for the budget!

[Mark Benson]

shalmaneser said:

a house is always worth a house.

Keep having to remind my wife of that as we drag our way slowly through the buying process and her mates are telling her there's about to be a crash.

[C70R]

shalmaneser said:

Time to dive in here.

We're putting our SE London flat - classic 'starter flat' ex local authority - up for sale. Bought on my lonesome 7 odd years ago, now with two of us and a little one it's time to upsize - and get a bit nearer grandparents for childcare. EA seems to think I've made 100k since I bought the place (in a bit of a state; it's pretty nice in here now) but we'll see.

Looking to buy and a lot of the houses in South London seem to have dropped in price which is good for us as the mortgage is paid off and we've got a big lump of deposit. Time is against up as my wife will need to get back to work in May and would like to be moved in then for aforementioned childcare.

If prices do take a dive it'll be a bit of a stter but at over 50% deposit unless it's the end of the world we should be fine, and a house is always worth a house.

Not afraid of getting my hands dirty so will be getting a fixer-upper. Want to go open-plan downstairs (obvs) does anyone know roughly how much you're looking at to knock down an internal wall and add a steel in South London these days?

Desperately hoping we can find somewhere with a garage and side access for the budget!

If you need somewhere for your family to live, there's never a bad time to buy a house. In your position with such a large deposit, you should be able to access the best of the rates that are currently available.

[lizardbrain]

A big deposit doesn’t seem to get you better rates at the moment. Maybe 10 blippies or so.

[Froomee]

Posted previously on the how far will house prices drop and we have finally exchanged.

Mortgage fixed for 5 years at just over 3% and managed to negotiate 4-5% off the asking price due to the current market and a few bits on the survey.

The vendor re-marketed due to our reduced offer initially.

The market generally has slowed (Petts Wood area) and houses are taking 3-6 weeks to sell. Previously houses would sell the same week, asking prices are still as high maybe even a touch higher but offers are now being considered.