housing market 2020-2021 = WTF???

[pquinn]

Government pumps money into the market directly or indirectly and people are surprised prices go up. Makes you wonder why they were so worried about the market needing help.

At least it doesn't (yet) seem to be down to what's happening in the US where people like Blackrock are bulk buying at inflated prices using cheap money, all to build up a massive rental portfolio. Hundreds of billions of dollars going into the market hoovering anything that comes up.

Funnily enough in the US just like the UK you'll still find articles saying rising prices are nothing to do with the financial side but totally down to all you NIMBYs stopping new housing being built. Funny that, especially when the new build development is then bought up 400+ units at a time by investors like Blackrock.

[shalmaneser]

ThatGuyWhoDoesStuff said:

shalmaneser said:

SD holiday ending

September furlough ending

Inflation increasing

If you're in rented right now bunker down for a year and I reckon you'll be sitting pretty.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-3675608/This-country-long-painful-history-booms-busts-housing-market-Britain-brink-house-price-crash.html

5 years later.....

If right now we had a 18% crash (bigger than the biggest house price crash in history), prices would still be more than they were just 4 years ago.

Fair point (and calling the top of the market is a mug's game) but the post Brexit dip never happened for what are obvious reasons in hindsight. But now we have actually brexited, export issues will continue to stack up (I work in manufacturing and it's a nightmare) and of course Covid I think things are different this time round. Who really knows though.

[cayman-black]

I have been watching the west country for about two years when i was first looking things just weren't selling now they are expensive and selling fast.
I have seen about 12 house i would have like in that period this year so far just two . I,m now in a position to buy but there is just so much rubbish coming on i feel i,ve missed the boat.

[aparna]

Lots of people including me who feel they have missed the boat.

But what does this mean? You will buy a smaller house for the same budget? Reduce your budget? Never move again?

I guess if you already own, extending is an option for some. Personally I can’t deal with the intrusion.

Our plan I think is to wait until spring and just spend our full budget. Though this is an active bet on a pullback, it seems like I may as well follow it through.

Edited by aparna on Thursday 24th June 13:03

[TwistingMyMelon]

aparna said:

Lots of people including me who feel they have missed the boat.

But what does this mean? You will buy a smaller house for the same budget? Reduce your budget? Never move again?

Buying a smaller house seems like doubling down on the same mistakes.

I guess if you already own, extending is an option for some, to take advantage of likely increased value of the land? Personally I can’t deal with the intrusion.

Our plan I think is to wait until spring and just spend our full budget. Though this is an active bet on a pullback, it seems like I may as well follow it through.

No (decent) builders available to do the work and materials have shot up, so a decent quality extension is serious money

[Blown2CV]

sjc said:

The next 6 months will be very telling.
SD holiday ending, furlough ending,inflation climbing possible winter Covid restrictions again.It’s inevitable to me that the market will correct itself, just no one knows by how much. I’ve sold and completed Monday, in rented now and in no rush. Paying 50k + over the true value of a house to save 12.5k in stamp duty is madness. I’m already seeing price reductions on properties in my area that haven’t being on the market long.

the 50k over offer was just to secure the house - not the stamp duty holiday. The demand now is not really related to stamp duty as it all but finishes in a week or so.

[egor110]

For the last 16 years I've delivered post to a hamlet in rural Somerset , you'd get one occasionally two properties for sale a year .

This year 4 have sold and there's another 4 about to go on the market!

[Yeti97]

I'm currently being left behind in my local market. I have a flat on which I own a chunk of equity, but the housing market is just outstripping me by miles. Money that would have gotten me an okay 2-bed house is now the 2-bed flat market. The flat value isn't increasing at the same rate as houses and I physically can't save enough to keep up.

Hopefully, things calm down so I can at least build up enough savings in a realistic time frame. As you'd expect, houses are flying off around here but flats mostly stay up for sale for quite some time.

[Blown2CV]

GreatGranny said:

OP, this has just come on the market in the village I grew up in and my parents and sister still live in.

Easily walking distance to the village centre, in catchment oof good primary school and the high school is decent as well but there are private alternatives not too far away.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/109364741#/

I've a feeling interest will be huge for this as a house to extend.

Or this is all ready to move in with lots of space.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/107170007#/

thanks man

[Blown2CV]

inflation seems to be the biggest uncertain lever here. The thread seems to have a number of opposing views... sitting in rented is great versus sitting in rented is the worst idea! Probs dependent upon inflation and the knock on effects...

[pti]

We accepted an offer on our flat (town centre, large private garden, off-street parking; fewer of the typical flat drawbacks) back in March as we were unable to even view properties without being in a proceedable position.

Since then we've been beaten on 4 properties, offering 10% over asking on one. We finally had an offer accepted (detached, garden, double garage) on a house which requires a lot of work. Having viewed a second time, for longer than the initial 20 minute whistle-stop, we've decided we're over paying and have pulled out.

The market is fking mental. We're staying put.

[LooneyTunes]

Blown2CV said:

inflation seems to be the biggest uncertain lever here. The thread seems to have a number of opposing views... sitting in rented is great versus sitting in rented is the worst idea! Probs dependent upon inflation and the knock on effects...

It’s the combination of inflation and low interest rates that I think you need to consider.

Even just a couple of years ago, cash in the bank benefited from a bit of interest. Today it doesn’t, so there are people with cash looking for alternative homes for it, income to replace lost interest, inflation hedge, etc. That has driven some, who previously would have said it was too much hassle, to the property market (5% BTL vs <0.1% interest will have appeal for some). Further increases the pool of buyers (and are often in strong position to proceed) beyond what would naturally be there and we can be pretty certain that interest rates won’t suddenly spike.

[sjc]

Blown2CV said:

sjc said:

The next 6 months will be very telling.
SD holiday ending, furlough ending,inflation climbing possible winter Covid restrictions again.It’s inevitable to me that the market will correct itself, just no one knows by how much. I’ve sold and completed Monday, in rented now and in no rush. Paying 50k + over the true value of a house to save 12.5k in stamp duty is madness. I’m already seeing price reductions on properties in my area that haven’t being on the market long.

the 50k over offer was just to secure the house - not the stamp duty holiday. The demand now is not really related to stamp duty as it all but finishes in a week or so.

I was talking generally. I completed Monday in selling the family home, having sold and had it fall through for the most bizarre reasons three times.
And I think demand will slow once the reality of the last 14 months starts to hit home. Job losses, broken businesses, higher taxes,etc must have some sort of impact.

[Sheepshanks]

GreatGranny said:

OP, this has just come on the market in the village I grew up in and my parents and sister still live in.

Easily walking distance to the village centre, in catchment oof good primary school and the high school is decent as well but there are private alternatives not too far away.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/109364741#/

The way things are that'll probably sell but it looks way expensive to me, both for what it is, and related to its price when last sold in 2006. £545K now vs £310K in 2006, and it's not like it's been physically altered in the meantime.

A couple of 'sold nearby' listings don't show much movement - one sold in 2017 for less than in 2011.

[red_slr]

GreatGranny said:

OP, this has just come on the market in the village I grew up in and my parents and sister still live in.

Easily walking distance to the village centre, in catchment oof good primary school and the high school is decent as well but there are private alternatives not too far away.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/109364741#/

I've a feeling interest will be huge for this as a house to extend.

I know that area very well and have tried to buy 2 properties there in years gone by.
That seems like decent value at 545 for common lane. 5 years ago (when I was looking in that area seriously) I would have said £400k so 545 seems alright considering the current hysteria. Will probably go for more than that I suspect.

The one on Langden Close, also feels about right. Houses on that side of that estate come up for sale very, very rarely and always command a high price.

The house I was trying to buy a few years ago was on Doeford and was 475k. That was what, 2015.
We then tried to buy one of the new builds further down Doeford and that was 525 and we couldnt quite scrape the extra 50k together in the end. We ended up buying in a different area that was cheaper and keeping our old house to rent out.

I think both of those will sell in fact I am amazed the one on Langden is still on the market. Perhaps they are holding out for a higher offer?

[red_slr]

Sheepshanks said:

GreatGranny said:

OP, this has just come on the market in the village I grew up in and my parents and sister still live in.

Easily walking distance to the village centre, in catchment oof good primary school and the high school is decent as well but there are private alternatives not too far away.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/109364741#/

The way things are that'll probably sell but it looks way expensive to me, both for what it is, and related to its price when last sold in 2006. £545K now vs £310K in 2006, and it's not like it's been physically altered in the meantime.

A couple of 'sold nearby' listings don't show much movement - one sold in 2017 for less than in 2011.

Culcheth can be strange like that but there are places that are very popular. We still keep an eye on the area and anything in the Twiss Green area does generally sell quite fast. Only time will tell really.

[dmahon]

RanchoGrande said:

I moved into rented in 2019...took us 2 years to find a new place! Finally moved in a few months back. As others have said, it's the covid effect. People have seen a rapid change in lifestyle and have pushed forward long term plans and as a result, the market is hot (unless you own a 1 bed in London without any outdoor space, that market sucks)

Strangely, a 1 bed in London is what I would like as a crash pad. Not finding much value there in the better areas either!

[okgo]

dmahon said:

Strangely, a 1 bed in London is what I would like as a crash pad. Not finding much value there in the better areas either!

Prices have still gone up in London, just not as much...

[TurboHatchback]

I must admit I'm feeling quite happy about maxing out every last penny we could mortgage and scrounge to buy a renovation project detached house with big garden by the coast in Dorset in 2018. I've no idea what it would be worth today but I wouldn't be surprised if it could be sold right now for £150k more than we paid less than three years ago.

Of course the price increase is only a good thing if you are looking to downgrade, upgrades will have increased even more in price, moving to an equivalent house would just cost more in stamp duty and first time buyers are screwed.

[Davey S2]

aparna said:

Lots of people including me who feel they have missed the boat.

But what does this mean? You will buy a smaller house for the same budget? Reduce your budget? Never move again?

I guess if you already own, extending is an option for some. Personally I can’t deal with the intrusion.

Our plan I think is to wait until spring and just spend our full budget. Though this is an active bet on a pullback, it seems like I may as well follow it through.

Edited by aparna on Thursday 24th June 13:03

Our driver for moving is mainly due to school catchment areas but as my kids are 7 and 3 there's no urgent rush.We'd have to do it soon though as i'm now 47 so can't leave it too long if we need to get a chunky mortgage.

It's not the budget that's the problem for us just the lack of stock on the market. The agent we spoke to a couple of months ago said that pre pandemic there would be around 50-60 houses on the market in the area we are looking. At the time there were 12.