The windy winter and occasional snow thread 2017/2018
Discussion
Some wobbling in this morning's charts (no, I'm not joshing this time). The high pressure to our north, that is key to swinging the cold in towards us has edged southwards on both ECM and GFS. This means we would be left on the northern flank of the cold.
Upgrade after upgrade after upgrade has finally ended, and an inevitable reduction in fortunes.
Beast from the East cancelled? No - might just be heading south in to France and Iberia (as I mentioned before is a likely scenario). Snowmeggedon cancelled? Maybe.
Still cold? Hell, yes. Just not as cold as the extreme temps that were on offer.
What would this mean? Still cold, but more under the influence of high pressure - crisp cold nights and probably blue sky days with the sun warm enough to mean low single digit temps (instead of minus!). The jet stream is being pushed towards Iberia and the Med, and if the high pressure was further north then some of the energy packed low-pressure systems that the jet stream always throws at us might have enough energy to bump in to the UK, and northern flanks versus cold = snowmeggedon. The further south the high pressure is, the lower the chance of that happening.
However, when you look at all the different versions that GFS/ECM create (they don't just create the one chart we see), then the chances of the high being so far south are low. However, as they agree - wobble time.
Will it last until May? This type of high pressure blocking is very stubborn and hard to shift. It will most likely last 2 weeks, and potentially much longer.
More to follow. Still lots of ifs, buts, maybes. And still bitterly cold.
Upgrade after upgrade after upgrade has finally ended, and an inevitable reduction in fortunes.
Beast from the East cancelled? No - might just be heading south in to France and Iberia (as I mentioned before is a likely scenario). Snowmeggedon cancelled? Maybe.
Still cold? Hell, yes. Just not as cold as the extreme temps that were on offer.
What would this mean? Still cold, but more under the influence of high pressure - crisp cold nights and probably blue sky days with the sun warm enough to mean low single digit temps (instead of minus!). The jet stream is being pushed towards Iberia and the Med, and if the high pressure was further north then some of the energy packed low-pressure systems that the jet stream always throws at us might have enough energy to bump in to the UK, and northern flanks versus cold = snowmeggedon. The further south the high pressure is, the lower the chance of that happening.
However, when you look at all the different versions that GFS/ECM create (they don't just create the one chart we see), then the chances of the high being so far south are low. However, as they agree - wobble time.
Will it last until May? This type of high pressure blocking is very stubborn and hard to shift. It will most likely last 2 weeks, and potentially much longer.
More to follow. Still lots of ifs, buts, maybes. And still bitterly cold.
This is where it has snowed in Europe for the past 3 days... and where it may snow in the next 6 days... Looking like <10cm to the east coasts of England...
As Puggit hints, some of the latest charts are indicating most of the UK will get absolutely walloped next week. Perhaps 20-30cm due around the Midlands.
As Puggit hints, some of the latest charts are indicating most of the UK will get absolutely walloped next week. Perhaps 20-30cm due around the Midlands.
Edited by Yipper on Thursday 22 February 09:18
Puggit said:
Some wobbling in this morning's charts (no, I'm not joshing this time). The high pressure to our north, that is key to swinging the cold in towards us has edged southwards on both ECM and GFS. This means we would be left on the northern flank of the cold.
Upgrade after upgrade after upgrade has finally ended, and an inevitable reduction in fortunes.
Beast from the East cancelled? No - might just be heading south in to France and Iberia (as I mentioned before is a likely scenario). Snowmeggedon cancelled? Maybe.
Still cold? Hell, yes. Just not as cold as the extreme temps that were on offer.
What would this mean? Still cold, but more under the influence of high pressure - crisp cold nights and probably blue sky days with the sun warm enough to mean low single digit temps (instead of minus!). The jet stream is being pushed towards Iberia and the Med, and if the high pressure was further north then some of the energy packed low-pressure systems that the jet stream always throws at us might have enough energy to bump in to the UK, and northern flanks versus cold = snowmeggedon. The further south the high pressure is, the lower the chance of that happening.
However, when you look at all the different versions that GFS/ECM create (they don't just create the one chart we see), then the chances of the high being so far south are low. However, as they agree - wobble time.
Will it last until May? This type of high pressure blocking is very stubborn and hard to shift. It will most likely last 2 weeks, and potentially much longer.
More to follow. Still lots of ifs, buts, maybes. And still bitterly cold.
I knew I shouldn't have ordered more logs Upgrade after upgrade after upgrade has finally ended, and an inevitable reduction in fortunes.
Beast from the East cancelled? No - might just be heading south in to France and Iberia (as I mentioned before is a likely scenario). Snowmeggedon cancelled? Maybe.
Still cold? Hell, yes. Just not as cold as the extreme temps that were on offer.
What would this mean? Still cold, but more under the influence of high pressure - crisp cold nights and probably blue sky days with the sun warm enough to mean low single digit temps (instead of minus!). The jet stream is being pushed towards Iberia and the Med, and if the high pressure was further north then some of the energy packed low-pressure systems that the jet stream always throws at us might have enough energy to bump in to the UK, and northern flanks versus cold = snowmeggedon. The further south the high pressure is, the lower the chance of that happening.
However, when you look at all the different versions that GFS/ECM create (they don't just create the one chart we see), then the chances of the high being so far south are low. However, as they agree - wobble time.
Will it last until May? This type of high pressure blocking is very stubborn and hard to shift. It will most likely last 2 weeks, and potentially much longer.
More to follow. Still lots of ifs, buts, maybes. And still bitterly cold.
Puggit said:
LivingTheDream said:
I knew I shouldn't have ordered more logs
Cold is still coming!The 6am GFS pushes everything north again. Plenty more twists and turns on this road
However, I've told the boy the logs will be dumped on the drive by the times he gets home from school and its his job to move them round back and stack them neatly in the log store.
Means I can concentrate on watching the rugby Friday night
I would rather be welcoming spring and some sunshine as I have had enough of this winter. But, if we are going to have some cold then lets have some proper f
king cold and snowmaggedon.
What has always annoyed me about British weather is it always middle of the road. I want extreme. Heat waves, biblical rain, 10 foot of snow. Not dreary and chilli :-)
king cold and snowmaggedon.What has always annoyed me about British weather is it always middle of the road. I want extreme. Heat waves, biblical rain, 10 foot of snow. Not dreary and chilli :-)
I think we might get a lovely crisp period of blue skies and sunshine, cold out of the sun and at night due to the clear sky. It could be easily on the cards just as well as a biting cold wind from the east and lots of snow and ice, if the wind blows down through France rather than heading straight across the channel and north sea.
Scabutz said:
What has always annoyed me about British weather is it always middle of the road. I want extreme. Heat waves, biblical rain, 10 foot of snow. Not dreary and chilli :-)
I think you live in the wrong country, you need somewhere more continental how about the midwest states of good old USA? plus every spring you'll get the occasional tornado, but yes we do have meh kind of weather most of the time but never "chilli".I'm driving from the East Midlands up to Rosyth on Monday to look at the new aircraft carrier, and back on Thursday, I'm taking all the small roads across the Cheviots and Borders hoping for a bit of snow.
sherbertdip said:
Scabutz said:
What has always annoyed me about British weather is it always middle of the road. I want extreme. Heat waves, biblical rain, 10 foot of snow. Not dreary and chilli :-)
I think you live in the wrong country, you need somewhere more continental how about the midwest states of good old USA? plus every spring you'll get the occasional tornado, but yes we do have meh kind of weather most of the time but never "chilli".I'm driving from the East Midlands up to Rosyth on Monday to look at the new aircraft carrier, and back on Thursday, I'm taking all the small roads across the Cheviots and Borders hoping for a bit of snow.
funkyrobot said:
sherbertdip said:
Scabutz said:
What has always annoyed me about British weather is it always middle of the road. I want extreme. Heat waves, biblical rain, 10 foot of snow. Not dreary and chilli :-)
I think you live in the wrong country, you need somewhere more continental how about the midwest states of good old USA? plus every spring you'll get the occasional tornado, but yes we do have meh kind of weather most of the time but never "chilli".I'm driving from the East Midlands up to Rosyth on Monday to look at the new aircraft carrier, and back on Thursday, I'm taking all the small roads across the Cheviots and Borders hoping for a bit of snow.
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