Classic Car Prices - Waiting For The Crash
Discussion
Good evening all
Long time lurker that reads with great interest but often has little to add without encouraging backlash.... but this topic has been on my mind for the past year and subject to many a late night debate.
Excuse my writing style as a type as I think so often not in a logistic order... and I'm well aware people get shot down forn poor grammar, punctuation etc.
I have owned many many cars, italian exotica, 80/90s supercars and some real oddball stuff - Countach's, a Diablo, Pantera's, RS500 Cos, Maserati BiTurbos, a DB5, Alfa SZ to name a few.
Like many of you I'm sure, these were bought and sold at market price a long time ago and whenever I meet up with my friends they always say "bet you wish you still had that ...." "have you seen the prices of...". (I remember going to a local garage in Stoke Poges that had a Bugatti EB110 in stock for over a year for £165000 and at the same time you could buy a concourse F40 for £200-250k. Now both 7 figures.... so what are people's thoughts.... as I have seen this before in my time, mega highs and mega lows....)
I have seen these prices go up, go very up, go very down and it makes me wonder why... is it because of very poor interest rates so the cash rich see classsic cars as a safe bet with potential return? I have seen this buoyancy before and seen it crash but some people I think are deluded by "investing" in some cars that seem to have gone up. Very low run iconic cars (Countach, F cars etc), mega rare and very special cars I'm sure will continue to appreciate but see below examples of people I know who have recently purchased (last 12 months):
2003 Carrera 4S. In fairness, very nice example and 25000 miles but... £32500
2004 M3 CSL, pretty average well used example, far from mint - £40000
Evo 9 FQ360 MR £30000
2005 360 Spider. Manual car, red with cream, 12000 miles... as good as it gets but £115000
Would any of you take a punt with these as "investments"... and by that I mean these people have bought these to garage, cherish, rarely use on the basis they will appreciate. My opinion is that within the next 5 years, the ever rising classic car market will crash and these so called potential classics will be back to what they were 5 years ago..
Two examples of my own:
I sold my 04 360 Spider F1 @ 22000 miles from memory in 2011 for £50k, and was happy with that as was being offered early £40s in the trade.... so why has this gone up? Mass produced average car, looks old, sh** to drive, doesn't really perform!
1999 Skyline R34 GTR V Spec in midnight purple imported in 2000 from Japan @ 1500KM. Only car I have ever kept for this long. Sold is 2015 as a perfect, original, unmodfied genuine 12000 mile example. At the time there were GTR's about from £20k. A nice one was late 20s. A special one was 30k. Not really wanting to sell it, I tested the market at £37500 for possibly the finest one in existence. It sold straight away for more or less asking price. I was absolutely delighted. Looking now on the market, one could ask double that.... and as much as I regret selling it and would love to buy it back, I wouldn't pay more than I sold it for it on a) principal and b) I can see it back at £30k in the next few years.
Rambling on but keen to hear people's thoughts on whether these 10-20 year old "Modern Classics" are "investments" or liabilities waiting to come back to what they are really worth....
Long time lurker that reads with great interest but often has little to add without encouraging backlash.... but this topic has been on my mind for the past year and subject to many a late night debate.
Excuse my writing style as a type as I think so often not in a logistic order... and I'm well aware people get shot down forn poor grammar, punctuation etc.
I have owned many many cars, italian exotica, 80/90s supercars and some real oddball stuff - Countach's, a Diablo, Pantera's, RS500 Cos, Maserati BiTurbos, a DB5, Alfa SZ to name a few.
Like many of you I'm sure, these were bought and sold at market price a long time ago and whenever I meet up with my friends they always say "bet you wish you still had that ...." "have you seen the prices of...". (I remember going to a local garage in Stoke Poges that had a Bugatti EB110 in stock for over a year for £165000 and at the same time you could buy a concourse F40 for £200-250k. Now both 7 figures.... so what are people's thoughts.... as I have seen this before in my time, mega highs and mega lows....)
I have seen these prices go up, go very up, go very down and it makes me wonder why... is it because of very poor interest rates so the cash rich see classsic cars as a safe bet with potential return? I have seen this buoyancy before and seen it crash but some people I think are deluded by "investing" in some cars that seem to have gone up. Very low run iconic cars (Countach, F cars etc), mega rare and very special cars I'm sure will continue to appreciate but see below examples of people I know who have recently purchased (last 12 months):
2003 Carrera 4S. In fairness, very nice example and 25000 miles but... £32500
2004 M3 CSL, pretty average well used example, far from mint - £40000
Evo 9 FQ360 MR £30000
2005 360 Spider. Manual car, red with cream, 12000 miles... as good as it gets but £115000
Would any of you take a punt with these as "investments"... and by that I mean these people have bought these to garage, cherish, rarely use on the basis they will appreciate. My opinion is that within the next 5 years, the ever rising classic car market will crash and these so called potential classics will be back to what they were 5 years ago..
Two examples of my own:
I sold my 04 360 Spider F1 @ 22000 miles from memory in 2011 for £50k, and was happy with that as was being offered early £40s in the trade.... so why has this gone up? Mass produced average car, looks old, sh** to drive, doesn't really perform!
1999 Skyline R34 GTR V Spec in midnight purple imported in 2000 from Japan @ 1500KM. Only car I have ever kept for this long. Sold is 2015 as a perfect, original, unmodfied genuine 12000 mile example. At the time there were GTR's about from £20k. A nice one was late 20s. A special one was 30k. Not really wanting to sell it, I tested the market at £37500 for possibly the finest one in existence. It sold straight away for more or less asking price. I was absolutely delighted. Looking now on the market, one could ask double that.... and as much as I regret selling it and would love to buy it back, I wouldn't pay more than I sold it for it on a) principal and b) I can see it back at £30k in the next few years.
Rambling on but keen to hear people's thoughts on whether these 10-20 year old "Modern Classics" are "investments" or liabilities waiting to come back to what they are really worth....
Edited by 98JA on Saturday 23 September 02:05
98JA said:
Good evening all
Long time lurker that reads with great interest but often has little to add without encouraging backlash.... but this topic has been on my mind for the past few years.
Excuse my writing style as a type as I think so often not in a logistic order... and I'm well aware people get shot down fornp
I have owned many many cars, italian exotica, 80/90s supercars and some real oddball stuff - Countach's, a Diablo, Pantera's, RS500 Cos, Maserati BiTurbos, DB5's
Is there supposed to be another half to this post?Long time lurker that reads with great interest but often has little to add without encouraging backlash.... but this topic has been on my mind for the past few years.
Excuse my writing style as a type as I think so often not in a logistic order... and I'm well aware people get shot down fornp
I have owned many many cars, italian exotica, 80/90s supercars and some real oddball stuff - Countach's, a Diablo, Pantera's, RS500 Cos, Maserati BiTurbos, DB5's
It is interesting - I do think for quite a long time, a lot of second hand cars were under valued.
If you look at other markets around the world, the market value of second hand cars generally are a lot higher than they were in the UK. To me, the adjustment seems to be bringing some cars to where they should be.
If you look at other markets around the world, the market value of second hand cars generally are a lot higher than they were in the UK. To me, the adjustment seems to be bringing some cars to where they should be.
"10-20 year old "Modern Classics" are "investments" or liabilities waiting to come back to what they are really worth."
For the last 5 (?) years they have turned out to be investments, I strongly suspect in the next 5 years they will depreciate possibly by 50% however as the vast majority of newer cars are dull and depreciate like a stone, maybe they won't.
For the last 5 (?) years they have turned out to be investments, I strongly suspect in the next 5 years they will depreciate possibly by 50% however as the vast majority of newer cars are dull and depreciate like a stone, maybe they won't.
V8RX7 said:
"10-20 year old "Modern Classics" are "investments" or liabilities waiting to come back to what they are really worth."
For the last 5 (?) years they have turned out to be investments, I strongly suspect in the next 5 years they will depreciate possibly by 50% however as the vast majority of newer cars are dull and depreciate like a stone, maybe they won't.
Yup my view also. I think the market for 'old school' drivers cars will always be there. I guess it just depends on the timings of when you buy / sell. I certainly think though that currently low interest rates / no CGT has pushed certain cars to unsustainable growth rates. I often wonder what would happen if CGT was applied to any car beyond your main one. I think the market would be much more measured. For the last 5 (?) years they have turned out to be investments, I strongly suspect in the next 5 years they will depreciate possibly by 50% however as the vast majority of newer cars are dull and depreciate like a stone, maybe they won't.
The Moose said:
It is interesting - I do think for quite a long time, a lot of second hand cars were under valued.
If you look at other markets around the world, the market value of second hand cars generally are a lot higher than they were in the UK. To me, the adjustment seems to be bringing some cars to where they should be.
YesIf you look at other markets around the world, the market value of second hand cars generally are a lot higher than they were in the UK. To me, the adjustment seems to be bringing some cars to where they should be.
Personally I'm a bit annoyed by it because cars such as the 997 Carrera S, BMW M3, Audi RS4, Mercedes C63 and a few others have appreciated in value.
Example, I remember looking at Audi RS4's back around 2012, for £14k could get a nice clean example with around 50k miles, now look at them, worse condition + more miles and they're about £17-18k
Hot hatches are holding their value as well
997 Carrera S- I remember finding a good one for £25k and even finding a 996 turbo for that much, now you're looking at £30-35k
Nissan GT-R, used ones haven't fallen below £35k for the past 5 years
Even big expensive Mercedes like the SL55 AMG, which usually those sort of SL and S class cars depreciate (unless extremely rare e.g sl700 or sl73) yet they've gone up as well.
Example, I remember looking at Audi RS4's back around 2012, for £14k could get a nice clean example with around 50k miles, now look at them, worse condition + more miles and they're about £17-18k
Hot hatches are holding their value as well
997 Carrera S- I remember finding a good one for £25k and even finding a 996 turbo for that much, now you're looking at £30-35k
Nissan GT-R, used ones haven't fallen below £35k for the past 5 years
Even big expensive Mercedes like the SL55 AMG, which usually those sort of SL and S class cars depreciate (unless extremely rare e.g sl700 or sl73) yet they've gone up as well.
g7jhp said:
If you're looking for an investment, I wouldn't.
If you're looking for a car to drive for the longer term, do it and enjoy it.
This. If you're looking to make a quick buck, there are probably better ways to do it. Especially now.If you're looking for a car to drive for the longer term, do it and enjoy it.
If you're looking for a toy that's fun to drive - and you derive the value from its ability to put a smile on your face - then a car is a good purchase.
Benjijames28 said:
It's all a bit distasteful, buying cars as an investment. Hoarding them in the hope of making money.
Like the housing market I would say the bottom has already fallen out of this game. The chances for easy money are long gone.
Distasteful? Really? I'm firmly in the 'cars are for driving' camp, but there's nothing distasteful about investments or capitalism in my view. Like the housing market I would say the bottom has already fallen out of this game. The chances for easy money are long gone.
I'd love to see people buying classics or interesting cars to use, but that ain't never gonna happen for everyone and every car, so why would anyone worry about it more than about those that buy fine art or wine as an investment?
Cars are desirable. The market has liked them hitherto and investors have done well. All that means for the rest of us is that we have to find something else to spend our money on, so that drags the less-favoured models up. Wins all round. Anyone railing against investor-owners might as well piss in the wind.
Only time will tell. We'd all like a crystal ball...... In hindsight, should have bought this or that.... blah blah blah.
If you have the money to buy a car you like, just do it. If it gives you enjoyment & puts a smile on your face and when the time comes to move it on & it goes for less than you paid for it, what's the problem? You've had enjoyment & paid for it ...... much like a holiday, a decent meal out etc etc.
It's very tiresome all this investment talk, with many so called 'petrol heads' only wanting to purchase a car that they assume will make them a profit.
If you have the money to buy a car you like, just do it. If it gives you enjoyment & puts a smile on your face and when the time comes to move it on & it goes for less than you paid for it, what's the problem? You've had enjoyment & paid for it ...... much like a holiday, a decent meal out etc etc.
It's very tiresome all this investment talk, with many so called 'petrol heads' only wanting to purchase a car that they assume will make them a profit.
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