The wet and windy, with occasional snow, 2019/2020 thread

[Puggit]

Models have been hinting at a Sudden Stratospheric Warming for a while now - without really showing it progressing. Things are firming up, but it's not certain. Would occur in around 16 days time, and as before, the effects normally take a few weeks to show themselves.

So - not certain it will happen, not certain it will affect us.

[Puggit]

SSW is one of the greatest drivers for a cold spell. A pool of extremely cold air sits above the North Pole during winter, and is trapped there by winds heading from west to east (including the jet stream - which generally keeps us warm and wet). During an SSW event, the cold air breaks free and breaks the west to east winds, allowing east to west. For the UK, anything the comes with any westerly factor means ocean air - 'warm'.

When the wind come from the east, it comes from Russia and Scandinavia, with little sea to cross (but enough to bring some moisture...). So it's cold, doesn't warm up, can bring precipitation.

Lots of ifs, lots of maybes - some potential. Those 2 amazing winters 9 years ago involved SSW.

More reading: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric...

[Puggit]

Digga said:

I though it was the Gulf Stream ocean currents that keep UK winters mild?

The cold and wet of the last few weeks was the Jet Stream pushing cold weather at us from West and North.

Fair comment. They work together driving west to east. The jet stream can dive south of us and allow cold air in, the gulf stream is pretty much steadily pushing warm water around us.

[Puggit]

matt173407 said:

Puggit time for my annual post , so netweather gfs showing some potential for end of nov early dec whats your thoughts ??

I think the weather will remain cooler than most of the year, with the occasional cold spell, and maybe even some snow

[Puggit]

Interesting chain of Twitter posts by Matt Hugo earlier. He doesn't often ramp - indicating high pressure to our NW in the future...

[Puggit]

Lemming Train said:

Rao should be appearing in the Express any moment now with his yearly "Worst winter for 100 years" prediction.

He hasn't stopped this autumn!

[Puggit]

colin_p said:

Looked at the tweets, it all seems exciting and dramatic with references to 2009..... but I've have no idea what the terminology means?

Pug, as simple translation, late Nov and early Dec, is it;

1, Going to snow?
2, Not going to snow?

I can only offer potential. There is potential for good things to happen for snow lovers, but there are plenty of places where it can all go wrong.

Next week - warmer, wetter - unsettled.

[Puggit]

Austrian Alps:

[Puggit]

Increasing signals for a cold spell at the turn of the month. Too far out to call it, but keeping an eye on things.

[Puggit]

Chances increasing for cold spell 1st/2nd December

Current snow chances are wide for Scotland, based on temps alone.

[Puggit]

We're talking about a Greenland high possibly forming. They normally fail, so let's wait and see...

[Puggit]

Art0ir said:

Weather Wizards and Great Seers of Meteorology, what doth thine charts of the Gods tell you about the situation in Iceland next week on my holibobs?

Your date description is a little fluffy... But higher than usual chances for crisp, clear, blue skies. Rare indeed in Iceland in winter!

[Puggit]

Cold spell is firming up. Not a lot of moisture on the cards, but some sharp frosts for sure.

General outlook for December remains cold.

I'd bet on a warm xmas if I was you.

[Puggit]

Baby Shark doo doo doo doo said:

Met Office suggesting slightly warmer than average December

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/met-office-g...

Going by most Met forecasts this year, I’ll get the snow boots ready

No - Mirror says Met Office says slightly warmer than average...

Met Office actually says average or below average: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/long-range-fo...

[Puggit]

WindyCommon said:

72 hours of rain, darkness and 12degC here in Surrey. It’s worse than Cardiff (where I grew up).

Puggit - enough is enough.

Cold and dry is coming

[Puggit]

Shafernaker's watch makes a snafu: https://twitter.com/Schafernaker/status/1200081658...

[Puggit]

Matt Hugo's tweet is here: https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/120153764253...

The bombshell image is here:

The numbers above 1012mb, and warmer green areas, indicates highish pressure over Greenland. Anticyclones (areas of high pressure) see winds go anti-clockwise.

This allows low pressure to move through Scandinavia towards UK (numbers less than 1012mb) . The blue areas are cold. Low pressure is generally wet weather.

So, if this chart verified, it would st it down with snow.

[Puggit]

Puggit said:

Matt Hugo's tweet is here: https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/120153764253...

The bombshell image is here:

The numbers above 1012mb, and warmer green areas, indicates highish pressure over Greenland. Anticyclones (areas of high pressure) see winds go anti-clockwise.

This allows low pressure to move through Scandinavia towards UK (numbers less than 1012mb) . The blue areas are cold. Low pressure is generally wet weather.

So, if this chart verified, it would st it down with snow.

ETA: Ridge - long area of high pressure, trough - long area of low pressure. Perfect for long lines up in to the cold Arctic

[Puggit]

No Face said:

Hooray! Thanks very much sir.

I now await the downgrades.

There'll be no downgrades, just to mess up the election

(of course there will be, the only way is ALWAYS down with this kind of chart)

[Puggit]

micky metro said:

any sign of the ssw that was suggested would happen around this time.

Still ticking along. Shame, even if it happened now it would be unlikely to assist with any cold spell happening 'normally'.