When will we be able to go to the pub again?

[Megaflow]

NDA said:

Hippea said:

All the talk about lifting restrictions and a phased return but let’s talk about the important stuff....

What are your predictions to when we will be able to go to the pub on a busy Friday night again without any restrictions?

I’m going to go with mid September for pubs open as normal

I think there are a significant number of people who will have a viral phobia after the lockdown - and for good reason. There is no cure on the horizon and it's a highly contagious potential killer. Therefore heading down to the pub will not be something they will want to do... Will this have an impact on pubs if there are fewer customers?

It will certainly have an impact on customers.

I saw a bloke wearing a mask yesterday... in a car... by himself... I can’t seem him going to the pubs when then open. But, I will be straight down my locals when they open to show my support and have a few colds ones in the beer garden in the sun, hopefully the sun will still be around, given some of the negativity that might not be around either.

[bad company]

Megaflow said:

NDA said:

Hippea said:

All the talk about lifting restrictions and a phased return but let’s talk about the important stuff....

What are your predictions to when we will be able to go to the pub on a busy Friday night again without any restrictions?

I’m going to go with mid September for pubs open as normal

I think there are a significant number of people who will have a viral phobia after the lockdown - and for good reason. There is no cure on the horizon and it's a highly contagious potential killer. Therefore heading down to the pub will not be something they will want to do... Will this have an impact on pubs if there are fewer customers?

It will certainly have an impact on customers.

I saw a bloke wearing a mask yesterday... in a car... by himself... I can’t seem him going to the pubs when then open. But, I will be straight down my locals when they open to show my support and have a few colds ones in the beer garden in the sun, hopefully the sun will still be around, given some of the negativity that might not be around either.

Yep, I’ve also seen people driving or outside all on their own wearing one of those paper/cloth masks which are probably no use at all.

I’d love to go back to the pub but can’t see it happening anytime soon without restrictions which may make it not worth going.

[Pantechnicon]

All this talk of pubs got me thinking, Beer kegs have a shelf life so surely all the big producers have stopped production? So will they not need some kind of notice to start again and then there’s the mass distribution that’s going to be needed to restock all the pubs at the same time. Anyone in the know care to comment

[ecsrobin]

I imagine another 3 weeks of these restrictions if they’re considering we’re at pick today or around now.

I then imagine people will be able to return to work but not the entertainment/hospitality/restaurant trades maybe a further 3 weeks after that?

So my guess is no earlier than June before you can get a pint in the local.

[RC1807]

As I posted yesterday, Luxembourg's PM outlined the exit strategy yesterday.

It's unlikely bars, restaurants and cafés will be reopening before the end of July.

High schools will start to return on 4th May (that week, only students taking their finals before June graduation.)

[2Btoo]

Are there two questions here: when do we think the lockdown will end and when do we think the lockdown should end? They are different things.

On the second point, I have a question but I think it's for a different thread .... I'll start one!

[Jasey_]

Emergency Declared In Japanese Prefecture Hit By 2nd Wave Of Coronavirus Infections

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-upda...

I guess a lot depends on how any initial release of restrictions goes - but this doesn't look promising.

[NDA]

2Btoo said:

Are there two questions here: when do we think the lockdown will end and when do we think the lockdown should end? They are different things.

I'm not sure many here are qualified to say when we think it should end. But clearly the health of the nation has to be juggled with the economic health - a balancing act.

Whilst there is no cure and no vaccine, I guess some people will remain in a self-imposed lockdown to avoid catching it... those who have the antibodies present can return to work... younger fitter people can observe social distancing and take the risk.

The lockdown was to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed, so the end of the lockdown will be when that risk has been judged to have ended.

[Shnozz]

Well my local region of Spain have announced today they expect hotels to be closed until Easter 2021. There has been suggestions that the bars and restaurants might open as "soon" as December by contrast, but they could fall in sync with the hotels (the article in the paper in fact states Feb/March 2021 so a little ahead of "easter" that is in the headline).

To quote, “Whoever thought it was 15 days or a month, and then back to normal, was very wrong,” regrets Montes."

[Megaflow]

Pantechnicon said:

All this talk of pubs got me thinking, Beer kegs have a shelf life so surely all the big producers have stopped production? So will they not need some kind of notice to start again and then there’s the mass distribution that’s going to be needed to restock all the pubs at the same time. Anyone in the know care to comment

A very good question. I doubt the Greene King employee earlier saying they have been furloughed until the 23rd June is coincidental.

I am expecting schools to go back on the 4th May.

A mate who is a copper told me, a week or two before the shut down was announced, they were going to close schools for 2 weeks before and after the Easter break. He was right about the first two weeks, so let’s see what happens next.

[GT72]

Shnozz said:

Well my local region of Spain have announced today they expect hotels to be closed until Easter 2021. There has been suggestions that the bars and restaurants might open as "soon" as December by contrast, but they could fall in sync with the hotels (the article in the paper in fact states Feb/March 2021 so a little ahead of "easter" that is in the headline).

To quote, “Whoever thought it was 15 days or a month, and then back to normal, was very wrong,” regrets Montes."

Is you area a tourist destination or are they business hotels?



As for the comments about a staged return in the UK based on age - who'd have guessed we might all be looking for fake ID's to make us look younger in our 40's?

[FredClogs]

NDA said:

2Btoo said:

Are there two questions here: when do we think the lockdown will end and when do we think the lockdown should end? They are different things.

I'm not sure many here are qualified to say when we think it should end. But clearly the health of the nation has to be juggled with the economic health - a balancing act.

Whilst there is no cure and no vaccine, I guess some people will remain in a self-imposed lockdown to avoid catching it... those who have the antibodies present can return to work... younger fitter people can observe social distancing and take the risk.

The lockdown was to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed, so the end of the lockdown will be when that risk has been judged to have ended.

Indeed, if we're proven to be beyond the peak or that the peak is controllable by modulating the lockdown then that's all we can hope for.

19 people used the Excell arena nightingale unit over the Easter Bank Holiday, when it looks like we were already beyond peak cases... 19, of the 1500 emergency beds at a cost of gawd knows how much.

This was never about preserving "every precious life" it was about protecting the NHS from going over capacity and the political embarrassment caused thus.

[Jasey_]

GT72 said:

Is you area a tourist destination or are they business hotels?

https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2020/04/15/hotels-in-spains-costa-blanca-and-valencian-community-to-remain-closed-until-easter-2021/

[unident]

Megaflow said:

A very good question. I doubt the Greene King employee earlier saying they have been furloughed until the 23rd June is coincidental.

I am expecting schools to go back on the 4th May.

A mate who is a copper told me, a week or two before the shut down was announced, they were going to close schools for 2 weeks before and after the Easter break. He was right about the first two weeks, so let’s see what happens next.

The furlough date is probably because the scheme has been set up for at least 3 months, so Greene King are probably confirming that they don’t expect any chance of pubs opening for 3 months by giving a date, but could easily extend it, if the scheme is extended.

[Jasey_]

Coronavirus: Significant social distancing needed 'until vaccine found'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52308201

[untakenname]

unident said:

The furlough date is probably because the scheme has been set up for at least 3 months, so Greene King are probably confirming that they don’t expect any chance of pubs opening for 3 months by giving a date, but could easily extend it, if the scheme is extended.

Thought it was backdated so it started March 1st? June 23rd seems an odd date.

Imo they should let society reopen for those under 50 and just isolate those over 75 as the lock-down is going to cause a lot more deaths, they say 120,000 died due to Austerity and that was nothing compared to this.

[Shnozz]

untakenname said:

Thought it was backdated so it started March 1st? June 23rd seems an odd date.

Imo they should let society reopen for those under 50 and just isolate those over 75 as the lock-down is going to cause a lot more deaths, they say 120,000 died due to Austerity and that was nothing compared to this.

I don't disagree with your approach (nor your logic regarding the increased health implications of an imploding economy). I do, however, wonder what you are suggesting the 50 - 75 year olds do?!

[unident]

untakenname said:

Thought it was backdated so it started March 1st? June 23rd seems an odd date.

Imo they should let society reopen for those under 50 and just isolate those over 75 as the lock-down is going to cause a lot more deaths, they say 120,000 died due to Austerity and that was nothing compared to this.

My understanding was 3 months from date of announcement of the scheme. The date of 1st March was a cut off for someone being employed at that point, to limit fraud opportunities, although that date has now moved to March 19th, the day before the furlough scheme was announced.

Confused by your fixed cut off. Why 50? Why not 40? There’ll be the usual uproar when someone dies who was 49 and 363 days old when the cut off date was announced. Or do you send people home when they turn 50. Bit too much Logan’s Run for my taste.

[vixen1700]

Seti said:

Looks Suspiciously like the Red Lion...my second local.

Indeed it is.

[kambites]

Jasey_ said:

Coronavirus: Significant social distancing needed 'until vaccine found'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52308201

Which means not just found, but found, tested, mass produced, distributed and given to enough of the population to create herd immunity. I think the absolute earliest we're going to see is that is around this time next year, late next year is more likely. One has to imagine pubs will be amongst the last things to reopen.